HDR - Hardman Resources
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RichKid
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Re: TZL and HDR
Although the news of the Mauritiana govt opton was anticipated it appears earlier news reports had made an error saying HDR's interest had been reduced to about 19%. It's real interest is now reduced to 20.6%. The earlier announcement contained that error and when the amended announcement was made the shares rose- that's my understanding anyway. Did anyone read it differently? Also good to see the latest Tiof appraisal being in line with expectations. We just need a NEW Discovery rather than confirmation of existing estimates at appraisal wells. Not many wells left to go in this lot.
Here's a news article (again showing the incorrect lower percentage- the interest for a different areas was confused with the current area- see the co announcements):
http://www.smh.com.au/news/Business/Govt-takes-12-of-Chinguetti/2004/11/16/1100574465816.html
Let's hope HDR rises, as usual, in anticipation of the next lot of news, if the news is bad it'll re-test the bottom that it's been feeling out recently.
Lucstar said:
Although the news of the Mauritiana govt opton was anticipated it appears earlier news reports had made an error saying HDR's interest had been reduced to about 19%. It's real interest is now reduced to 20.6%. The earlier announcement contained that error and when the amended announcement was made the shares rose- that's my understanding anyway. Did anyone read it differently? Also good to see the latest Tiof appraisal being in line with expectations. We just need a NEW Discovery rather than confirmation of existing estimates at appraisal wells. Not many wells left to go in this lot.
Here's a news article (again showing the incorrect lower percentage- the interest for a different areas was confused with the current area- see the co announcements):
http://www.smh.com.au/news/Business/Govt-takes-12-of-Chinguetti/2004/11/16/1100574465816.html
Let's hope HDR rises, as usual, in anticipation of the next lot of news, if the news is bad it'll re-test the bottom that it's been feeling out recently.
Re: TZL and HDR
HI there guys
Next step would obviously be to trade and hold above 200c. If this is achieved tomorrow, it would basically show a positive break of down trending line on the weekly chart, which has a bit more significance as opposed to a daily chart.
Technically, what it has done in the last few days, is encouraging, and if I wasn't holding already and had some spare cash, my system gave me an entry signal on the 11 th Nov with the Pivot point reversal which was confirmed with today's trading action.
Hope it keeps on heading towards the top of the range. There's that word again, I hate relying on 'HOPE' when it comes to trading.
Good Luck and happy trading
HI there guys
Next step would obviously be to trade and hold above 200c. If this is achieved tomorrow, it would basically show a positive break of down trending line on the weekly chart, which has a bit more significance as opposed to a daily chart.
Technically, what it has done in the last few days, is encouraging, and if I wasn't holding already and had some spare cash, my system gave me an entry signal on the 11 th Nov with the Pivot point reversal which was confirmed with today's trading action.
Hope it keeps on heading towards the top of the range. There's that word again, I hate relying on 'HOPE' when it comes to trading.
Good Luck and happy trading
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Re: TZL and HDR
I'm remaining VERY positive about HDR. I've added more whenever it took a hit (and it took quite a few) to be ready for the recovery. IMHO this stock should be trading well above the $2 mark based on where they stand with their oil reserves and discoveries. Currently the market is just looking at new results from their drilling program. Once this settles down Mr Market will start looking at the longer term aspects of this company.
We shall see. I'm in and holding for the next 6-12 months.
Happy trading
Stefan
I'm remaining VERY positive about HDR. I've added more whenever it took a hit (and it took quite a few) to be ready for the recovery. IMHO this stock should be trading well above the $2 mark based on where they stand with their oil reserves and discoveries. Currently the market is just looking at new results from their drilling program. Once this settles down Mr Market will start looking at the longer term aspects of this company.
We shall see. I'm in and holding for the next 6-12 months.
Happy trading
Stefan
RichKid
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Re: TZL and HDR
Has anyone kept track of the number of new wells left to be drilled (As opposed to appraisal wells) this year? (Dorade and Capitane were dry). I'll see if I can get some dates and names so we have a rough idea of the trip ahead. The sp dips and rises in tune with the news so if we know ahead we can probably predict where it'll head since we have a rough bottom (About 1.80-1.92) and rough top (2.22-2.35) for the current sideways trend. The real risk for downside is if the oil price dips, current base valuation appears to be linked to the oil price. So if oil falls to $40 we will see 1.80 broken IMO unless there is good news next month.
Has anyone kept track of the number of new wells left to be drilled (As opposed to appraisal wells) this year? (Dorade and Capitane were dry). I'll see if I can get some dates and names so we have a rough idea of the trip ahead. The sp dips and rises in tune with the news so if we know ahead we can probably predict where it'll head since we have a rough bottom (About 1.80-1.92) and rough top (2.22-2.35) for the current sideways trend. The real risk for downside is if the oil price dips, current base valuation appears to be linked to the oil price. So if oil falls to $40 we will see 1.80 broken IMO unless there is good news next month.
RichKid
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Re: TZL and HDR
Another article on Hardman today 'Hardman strikes oil again and again'-
http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2004/11/21/1100972252203.html?from=storylhs
Just a summary of activity but worth a look to put the current price in context. A lot of action in the past and much more to come...
Another article on Hardman today 'Hardman strikes oil again and again'-
http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2004/11/21/1100972252203.html?from=storylhs
Just a summary of activity but worth a look to put the current price in context. A lot of action in the past and much more to come...
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Re: TZL and HDR
Rich, have you put together the number of new wells and appraisal wells? Otherwise I'll check the report again tonight and come up with it. I lost track as I didn't follow it closely. It's in my longterm basket so it doesn't get my attention that often. Anyway, would still be interesting to have a quick update on where they stand.
Happy trading
Stefan
Rich, have you put together the number of new wells and appraisal wells? Otherwise I'll check the report again tonight and come up with it. I lost track as I didn't follow it closely. It's in my longterm basket so it doesn't get my attention that often. Anyway, would still be interesting to have a quick update on where they stand.
Happy trading
Stefan
RichKid
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Re: TZL and HDR
Hi Stefan,
I've basically done the same as you- I should check it out but have to find the time, detailed research isn't my strong point. As you know I don't spend as much time on fundamentals but since it's hitting a bottom I have to make sure there's a safety cushion when setting my stops and looking at opportunity costs (I normally buy and sell within a few weeks or months- I'm with HDR for the longterm but it means I'll be in and out).
You may be interested in an article in Shares mag (June issue I think) - it had a segment on the best stocks as picked by a number of high profile brokers. One was HDR and Ian Huntley had a valuation based on existing discoveries with oil at $30- from memory the valuation was about $1.24 or $1.35. So extrapolating to the current oil price (and assuming my recollection is correct) the current bottom (at about 1.80) is about where it should be if HDR discovers no more oil and assuming the oil price doesn't drift downwards AND assuming the appraisal wells confirm the estimates.
stefan said:
Hi Stefan,
I've basically done the same as you- I should check it out but have to find the time, detailed research isn't my strong point. As you know I don't spend as much time on fundamentals but since it's hitting a bottom I have to make sure there's a safety cushion when setting my stops and looking at opportunity costs (I normally buy and sell within a few weeks or months- I'm with HDR for the longterm but it means I'll be in and out).
You may be interested in an article in Shares mag (June issue I think) - it had a segment on the best stocks as picked by a number of high profile brokers. One was HDR and Ian Huntley had a valuation based on existing discoveries with oil at $30- from memory the valuation was about $1.24 or $1.35. So extrapolating to the current oil price (and assuming my recollection is correct) the current bottom (at about 1.80) is about where it should be if HDR discovers no more oil and assuming the oil price doesn't drift downwards AND assuming the appraisal wells confirm the estimates.
RichKid
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Re: TZL and HDR
Stefan,
About the wells- I have the HDR annual report here somewhere (you must have got it too) must find it, but I don't think they had a detailed chronology of the drilling programme. Must dig out the vital info from amongst all the glossy photos and labels...
Stefan,
About the wells- I have the HDR annual report here somewhere (you must have got it too) must find it, but I don't think they had a detailed chronology of the drilling programme. Must dig out the vital info from amongst all the glossy photos and labels...
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Re: TZL and HDR
Anyway, it's all rather confusing with so many sites and drillings on the way. I'll spend some time later on. It's not urgent for me. My average is at 1.98 and I'll leave it alone hoping we'll see some gains during 2005 when we are getting closer to production.
Happy trading
Stefan
It sure is a rather glossy report, isn't it? From all the reports I got this year I must say it's by far the best in terms of layout and appeal. Maybe I should only invest in companies who deliver the most appealing reports.
Anyway, it's all rather confusing with so many sites and drillings on the way. I'll spend some time later on. It's not urgent for me. My average is at 1.98 and I'll leave it alone hoping we'll see some gains during 2005 when we are getting closer to production.Happy trading
Stefan
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Re: TZL and HDR
Oil is on the rise again. After all, it's winter in Europe and the US so demand will increase and stock levels are still 14% lower than last year.
Should be a good thing for HDR even if they will only start selling their oil in about a year's time.
Happy trading
Stefan
Oil is on the rise again. After all, it's winter in Europe and the US so demand will increase and stock levels are still 14% lower than last year.
Should be a good thing for HDR even if they will only start selling their oil in about a year's time.
Happy trading
Stefan
RichKid
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Re: TZL and HDR
A very positive article on Hardman (on the AGM comments). Looks like we've been looking at the negatives for too long, perhaps this is good long term as this maybe the turning point that sees Hardman advance slowly but strongly as a top tier oil stock instead of jumping up like a young speccy:
http://www.smh.com.au/news/Business...her-development/2004/11/25/1101219681047.html
Once the market reappraises HDR look for jumps to levels more in line with future cashflow rather than the discounted bottom end valuation at which it is today (around $1.80). Note that technically this now appears to be a consolidation (rather than top reversal as I first thought) pattern as that support at about 1.80 has been tested twice and has survived, if it survives one more time that'll confirm it IMO.
Oil price increase adds a further safety cushion in line with bottom end valuations.
A very positive article on Hardman (on the AGM comments). Looks like we've been looking at the negatives for too long, perhaps this is good long term as this maybe the turning point that sees Hardman advance slowly but strongly as a top tier oil stock instead of jumping up like a young speccy:
http://www.smh.com.au/news/Business...her-development/2004/11/25/1101219681047.html
Once the market reappraises HDR look for jumps to levels more in line with future cashflow rather than the discounted bottom end valuation at which it is today (around $1.80). Note that technically this now appears to be a consolidation (rather than top reversal as I first thought) pattern as that support at about 1.80 has been tested twice and has survived, if it survives one more time that'll confirm it IMO.
Oil price increase adds a further safety cushion in line with bottom end valuations.
Re: TZL and HDR
Does anyone know what's behind to sharp fall in today's open? Pre-market trading looked positive. But it seems that the ROC announcement has caused a bit of a fall. However, after reading the ROC announcement, i realised that it was that of a bad news. They said that they had found some hydrocarbons, but its just that is not of economic size. I wouldn't say that that is very bad news. So what made the price of HDR fall on open?
Does anyone know what's behind to sharp fall in today's open? Pre-market trading looked positive. But it seems that the ROC announcement has caused a bit of a fall. However, after reading the ROC announcement, i realised that it was that of a bad news. They said that they had found some hydrocarbons, but its just that is not of economic size. I wouldn't say that that is very bad news. So what made the price of HDR fall on open?
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Re: TZL and HDR
Nothing else but the ROC news release. HDR gets hammered whenever one of their drillings isn't 100% successful. Whether or not further analysis will show that there's more oil than first thought doesn't matter. For now there is not enough oil there so the new is considered bad. Drilling costs a lot of money and each miss will have an impact on HDR.
Happy trading
Stefan
Nothing else but the ROC news release. HDR gets hammered whenever one of their drillings isn't 100% successful. Whether or not further analysis will show that there's more oil than first thought doesn't matter. For now there is not enough oil there so the new is considered bad. Drilling costs a lot of money and each miss will have an impact on HDR.
Happy trading
Stefan
RichKid
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Re: TZL and HDR
Spot on Stefan, HDR traders are very demanding.
It was a bit disapointing to see $1.80 breached but that was only temporarily. So it looks like that support level will survive again. I don't expect any good news from the tests. Migh as well concentrate on the next well, hopefully we'll hear about that in the next few days.
Also, that base case valuation I mentioned a few post ago was from Shares magazine in the June issue, I just checked. It doesn't make a big difference to me because of my technical slant (and AspectHuntely got HDR wrong anyway in that they went short on it way too early) but it might help underpin that technical support level at 1.80.
stefan said:
Spot on Stefan, HDR traders are very demanding.
It was a bit disapointing to see $1.80 breached but that was only temporarily. So it looks like that support level will survive again. I don't expect any good news from the tests. Migh as well concentrate on the next well, hopefully we'll hear about that in the next few days.
Also, that base case valuation I mentioned a few post ago was from Shares magazine in the June issue, I just checked. It doesn't make a big difference to me because of my technical slant (and AspectHuntely got HDR wrong anyway in that they went short on it way too early) but it might help underpin that technical support level at 1.80.
RichKid
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Re: TZL and HDR
Stefan,
About the drilling campaign and wells left to be drilled/explored:
see the AGM presentation on the Hardman website for a list of future prospects to be drilled this year and next. It's not detailed but it does indicate that there is a lot more to go, it's still early days for this drilling campaign- it looks to be very thorough. That information should have been released in a clearer format much earlier IMO. The presentation is well worth a look if you haven't seen it already. There's even a well near Australia to be drilled early next year.
The more often it bounces off $1.80 the more convinced I am about the stability of this short term trend.
Markmau,
About the buying today- a lot of people must have jumped in when it was around 1.80 (even went down to 1.77 for very short time). I ignore ComSec and just buy according to my plan (may coincide with Comsec every now and again), I don't need any more HDR at the moment so I wont be buying but this would have been a good time for me if I was underweight in HDR. It's still stuck around 1.85 as we speak, hopefully it'll rise again to $2+ this week.
Stefan,
About the drilling campaign and wells left to be drilled/explored:
see the AGM presentation on the Hardman website for a list of future prospects to be drilled this year and next. It's not detailed but it does indicate that there is a lot more to go, it's still early days for this drilling campaign- it looks to be very thorough. That information should have been released in a clearer format much earlier IMO. The presentation is well worth a look if you haven't seen it already. There's even a well near Australia to be drilled early next year.
The more often it bounces off $1.80 the more convinced I am about the stability of this short term trend.
Markmau,
About the buying today- a lot of people must have jumped in when it was around 1.80 (even went down to 1.77 for very short time). I ignore ComSec and just buy according to my plan (may coincide with Comsec every now and again), I don't need any more HDR at the moment so I wont be buying but this would have been a good time for me if I was underweight in HDR. It's still stuck around 1.85 as we speak, hopefully it'll rise again to $2+ this week.
