HDR - Hardman Resources

tony2252 · 20 January 2006

Hi Carpets

on one hand you "think" the price will go to $2 on the other hand you are going to "guess" and wait and see based on the charts.

Its all a matter of the balance of proberbility does it favour up or down...

In my 2 minutes of experience I think that you should go ask chicken.

Have a great day!

carpets · 20 January 2006

tony2252 said:
Hi Carpets

on one hand you "think" the price will go to $2 on the other hand you are going to "guess" and wait and see based on the charts.

Its all a matter of the balance of proberbility does it favour up or down...

In my 2 minutes of experience I think that you should go ask chicken.

Have a great day!

Tony, sorry im not familiar with the term proberbility. Perhaps you'll have to refresh my memory.

According to the charts, it seems as though it is favouring a break above resistance. As I said, we'll have to wait and see.

justjohn · 20 January 2006

Carpets you say its only a matter of time HDR brakes out but on 2 previous times its tried only to be knocked down what makes so confident its going to brake and also probebility is a well known phraise used by people born in 1960 and can not be found in uni text books

carpets said:
I think that its only going to be a matter of time for HDR. Looking at the graph, it seems to have broken out of that downward trend channel so I guess we'll have to see if it breaks above the $2ish mark. New drilling project in Chinguetti offshore oilfield is still scheduled for feb 1 (according to report), so maybe thats what HDR needs to bolster the current share price.

Dutchy3 · 20 January 2006

Hi carpets

I'm with you. I've held long as I'm reasonably comfortable that my entry area of 1.97 can be found again in a reasonable time frame.

The Bearish Engulfing that occured this week is not what I like to see so early in a new position. So .... I will be out if I cab get 1.98 within the new few weeks.

carpets · 23 January 2006

justjohn said:
Carpets you say its only a matter of time HDR brakes out but on 2 previous times its tried only to be knocked down what makes so confident its going to brake and also probebility is a well known phraise used by people born in 1960 and can not be found in uni text books

justjohn, I have prepared my technical analysis on why I have some confidence in HDR's current position. I'm not so sure that it has been 'knocked down' but rather is consolidating and building strength for a new move.
As stated previously by other members on the board, the indicators are showing positive signs. The indicators I use are mearly my interpretation which is not to be taken as any sort of investment advice, however, based on my research I have concluded further gains for HDR is probable based on the current position. My opinion is by all means open to discretion and criticism.
As for the term 'probebility', im sure that the phrase would be contained in any university textbook as universities have been established well beyond the 1960's. I am yet to discover any such phrase, perhaps you could tell me what it means...
Carpets.

(Sorry the chart might be a bit blurred)

johnno261 · 31 January 2006

Topped up my holdings today in HDR. Re rating not far off, nor is production, only 2 weeks away from producing up to 75,000BOPD which is valued at well over half a billion dollars in it's 1st year of production based on current $68US a barrel which equates to roughly $88AUS a barrel. HDR are looking at roughly $60AUS profit per barrel.
Big call,but HDR wont be under $4 in 12-15 months!

Dutchy3 · 1 February 2006

Hi Johno261

Yes ... thanks for the FA. Technically the way it has (largely) discounted the Bearish Engulfing day from the other week is a big positive. Some frantic trading on the closes over the last week or so too. I like the sound of 400+ in due course.

Dutchy3 · 1 February 2006

Anticipated announcementon the close and this one moves into pre open. Few (smallish) buyers jumping the bid/ask spread. Open tomorrow might be interesting

johnno261 · 1 February 2006

Dutchy3, great news regarding contract of sales. HDR is only 2 weeks from production and looking at roughly $400,000,000 in it's 1 st year of production!! Not many companys make 1/10 of that in their 1st year of production!!!!
Exciting times ahead with big $$$ just round the corner! The upside with the stock is huge as that 400million dollars is only a rough estimate on Chinguetti, alone and not taking into account,Tiof,Tevet,Banda, and Uganda's drilling.
Tomorrow looks like being a good day indeed!!!

TheAnalyst · 2 February 2006

Does anyone know what the estimate of Net Earnings Per Diluted Share (NEPDS) is on a forecasted estimated $400,000,000 is.

TheAnalyst · 2 February 2006

Does anyone have a web page link to the article with the $400,000,000 estimate?

champ2003 · 2 February 2006

I'm not sure about the 400,000,000 figure however me being a pro trader full time, thats not what i'm caring about. I'm personally in HDR due to the start up of chinguetti within 2 weeks time. This factor alone will drive the price substantially higher within the next 2 weeks.

Don't buy on my advise alone though.

cheers!

TheAnalyst · 2 February 2006

champ2003 said:
I'm not sure about the 400,000,000 figure however me being a pro trader full time, thats not what i'm caring about. I'm personally in HDR due to the start up of chinguetti within 2 weeks time. This factor alone will drive the price substantially higher within the next 2 weeks.

Don't buy on my advise alone though.

cheers!

At least you admit you dont know as i think thats a good thing because its hard when people tend to say things and dont really know what it really means a bit like ramping...but its great when someone states something and presents their argument with some references.

I thought that may have been factored in already but there was a buy recommendation on this stock in the Melbourne Herald Sun the only part of the paper that hasnt been politically corrected yet except bolte of course.

So I have been looking at the installments.

johnno261 · 2 February 2006

Analyst, simple mate, 75,000BOPD divided by 30% which is roughly HDR"s interest in Chinguetti multiplied by $69US per barrel which equates to roughly $88 a barrel.
Taking all of the above into account and your looking at $2million+ per day over a 365 days in a year gives you a rough estimate of $ 480million. Come on Analyst i know your not an Accountant but an ex Navy Boy, so i didnt expect you to work this one out.

By the way, where wer'e you today. I was waiting for you at the ASX all day!!

TheAnalyst · 2 February 2006

johnno261 said:
Analyst, simple mate, 75,000BOPD divided by 30% which is roughly HDR"s interest in Chinguetti multiplied by $69US per barrel which equates to roughly $88 a barrel.
Taking all of the above into account and your looking at $2million+ per day over a 365 days in a year gives you a rough estimate of $ 480million. Come on Analyst i know your not an Accountant but an ex Navy Boy, so i didnt expect you to work this one out.

By the way, where wer'e you today. I was waiting for you at the ASX all day!!

Johnno

You forgot something in the calculations...you forgot to deduct costs so we could get a Net profit after tax..that's the important thing...do you know what the relevant range is??

I didnt come today because i sat here and traded warrants all day like you would not believe as phone orders are more than double internet trades...just knock the navy stuff off will ya and yes i am qualified as i am now talking management accounting terms with you.....i have been checking the HDR site and can't find a net profit figure per share so do you have one and i sold RIO yesterday as i dont want another MBL do i?

Do you know why i want a NPAT? because i am working something out and i get it right more times than wrong just sometimes need a little patience and how come you have added me to msn as i gave you my msn contact?

johnno261 · 2 February 2006

Costs for extractions per barrel is roughly $10-$12 which gives you roughly at current oil prices a conservative $70+ aus per barrel profit!!
Obvious to all, they have a good size debt which is not of any concern. This debt will be cut down pretty fast!

TheAnalyst · 2 February 2006

johnno261 said:
Costs for extractions per barrel is roughly $10-$12 which gives you roughly at current oil prices a conservative $70+ aus per barrel profit!!
Obvious to all, they have a good size debt which is not of any concern. This debt will be cut down pretty fast!

Thats extraction costs only....need the total costs...i am aware thay have other plays happenning as well and should be successful i just want to know if the whole barrells have already been calcualted into the share price or if there actually is some arbitrage when the actuall barrrells are delivered and want to start to price the potential explorations into the share price as well and get a trend for the chart

johnno261 · 2 February 2006

Cannot ascertain exact costings!!!! As for charts do a overlap chart of HDR & ROC and then tell me if you think HDR has plenty of upside.Also take into account, ROC has a lesser percentage in this field!!! Yeah work that one out!! Pretty sure ROC's S/P is above $3

johnno261 · 2 February 2006

Not saying too much, but PetroChina & India Oil and Gas Corp. may have their eye on HDR. Dont know how much truth is in this rumour, so take it extremely lightly as there may not be much substance behind it!!!

Dutchy3 · 2 February 2006

Hi Johnno261

What does SP refer too?

I've seen others post refering to this measure and even though I've an Accounting / Finance background I'm lost with it?

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