GTP - Great Southern Plantations

[TheAnalyst]

Re: Great Southern Plantations (GTP)

GTP have dropped last few days...dont be scared as institutions have been buying a lot lately and have now stopped so there is a sudden drop in volume and price....beware as they wish to accumulate shares at lower prices and continue buying.

Hopefully the price will be manipulated a bit lower so i can come in and buy more warrants...thx institutions for helping me...

Any one kept a tab on the P/E ratio at this price as the newspapers can be a bit behind sometimes

 

[Julia]

Re: Great Southern Plantations (GTP)

GTP have dropped last few days...dont be scared as institutions have been buying a lot lately and have now stopped so there is a sudden drop in volume and price....beware as they wish to accumulate shares at lower prices and continue buying.

Hopefully the price will be manipulated a bit lower so i can come in and buy more warrants...thx institutions for helping me...

Any one kept a tab on the P/E ratio at this price as the newspapers can be a bit behind sometimes

Hi Analyst,

On another site the suggestion has been made that the drop off in the SP has been due to a particular seller who has been coming in and selling off fairly large parcels late in the afternoon, suggesting possiblyan overseas investor.

If institutions are buying, why would the SP be dropping?

Julia

 

[michael_selway]

Re: Great Southern Plantations (GTP)

Hi Analyst,

On another site the suggestion has been made that the drop off in the SP has been due to a particular seller who has been coming in and selling off fairly large parcels late in the afternoon, suggesting possiblyan overseas investor.

If institutions are buying, why would the SP be dropping?

Julia

maybe they try yo buy at limit lower than market price, and not in rush to buy if it goes higher than that price?

also PE seems very low forecasts seems pretty good as well, wonder if this one will rebound, yield is ok atm

 

[TheAnalyst]

Re: Great Southern Plantations (GTP)

Looks like great southern is in for a recovery by the looks of it...the 31st dec announcment was a strong and good indication to the market that it is on its way to increased earnings and increased shareprice.

I have been accumulating gtpizk installment warrants.

 

[michael_selway]

Re: Great Southern Plantations (GTP)

Looks like great southern is in for a recovery by the looks of it...the 31st dec announcment was a strong and good indication to the market that it is on its way to increased earnings and increased shareprice.

I have been accumulating gtpizk installment warrants.

Wow nice up 10% today! yeah it has dropped alot this year, btu forecasts appear to be still good atm

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Great Southern Plantations (ASX code: GTP) is pleased to announce that sales of its Managed Investment Scheme projects for the half year ended 31 December 2005 have totalled some $79.3 million. This compares to sales at the same time last year of $20.5 million and therefore the current sales represent an increase of approximately 287% over the same period last year.

 

[TheAnalyst]

Re: Great Southern Plantations (GTP)

Wow nice up 10% today! yeah it has dropped alot this year, btu forecasts appear to be still good atm

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Great Southern Plantations (ASX code: GTP) is pleased to announce that sales of its Managed Investment Scheme projects for the half year ended 31 December 2005 have totalled some $79.3 million. This compares to sales at the same time last year of $20.5 million and therefore the current sales represent an increase of approximately 287% over the same period last year.

that is amazing news....fundamentally it should begin to push the stock over $4 and if the next half or qtr the same type of announcement is made it should cause the stock to break any previous high....the only risk that is calcualted into the stock at present is if it can continue its growth and the directors are addressing this issue already by diversifying.

 

[abucs]

Re: Great Southern Plantations (GTP)

I'd like to see the new investments sell well (olives, grapes and cattle) as these will provide re-curring income to the company in future years and help to allay any fears that the industry may suffer a downturn.

Still, looks like this year will be another strong year and the PE's look very attractive.

 

[TheAnalyst]

Re: Great Southern Plantations (GTP)

I think at the moment with the sales going extremly well they will most likely use the extra earnings towards strengthening their growth position and this could mean being involved in differnt types of investments even leading back to property in some yrs down the track.

They dont pay out all their earnings as dividends but keep a dividend payout ratio..especially now that they have some big name institutions as major shareholders these will influence some of their decisions and big players have a big say on the corporate governance issues like protecting and maintaining a solid share price as well as creating strategic alliances in cross products and benefits.

 

[abucs]

Re: Great Southern Plantations (GTP)

Hi The Analyst.
Just quickly. Yes, i agree with the possible use of financial instos using their distribution networks to help sell the GTP investments. John young keeps saying that the distribution network is a big part in the continual increase in sales. Against that though is the fact that last year both CBA and Maquarie entered the industry themselves as they were seeing how much money was being made. GTP is still 35% of the market though.

I'd like to see GTP concentrate on the non wood plantation investments for the reason mentioned above but also to see them gradually use the plantation land themselves to have the woodsales in their own name. I'm assuming that this will be their plan if the non timber products sell well. If you do the maths on how much their current land bank is worth, it is a huge number. Say 250K hectares making $30K each hectare over an ongoing 10-11 year period.

Also, perhaps the move to use some gearing on the company rather than using capital raisings has something to do with the 'big boys' suggestions on share price stability that you mentioned ?

 

[TheAnalyst]

Re: Great Southern Plantations (GTP)

yer, you are right with the gearing abucs..because it is common knowledge that borrowing or choosing to raise debt rather than equity causes a share price to grow quickly when the overall market index it is in is growing and is expected to grow as well so this is a positive for gtp...but it also has the reverse effect when the entire index is falling and growth is not expected.

Another bonus is gtp charges the lease of the land to the investor in one hit over a ten year period and what is not shown in the balance sheet is the land revalued in ten yrs when the wood or whatever crop is harvested and sold on behalf of the investor and the land remains the property of gtp is the increases in the land value and how they can be released again or the land sold off for a capital gain not normal earnings...i am ok on this point because i do tax from home so i understand the concept that gtp has marketed.

But macquarie entering the market is an eye catcher but the board must have something up their sleave as so far they have been proved to be just as smart as those boffins from macquarie and they are smart.

 

[michael_selway]

Re: Great Southern Plantations (GTP)

Easy for them to say, since they're not the ones holding it

Personally I prefer to buy when I see prices rising. During a down-trend like this particularly, I wouldn't buy more (or any in my case) until I'd seen definite signs of steady upward movement again.

And I ain't seen that yet.

Cheers,
GP

Yeah i agree with that it can be very risky buying too early when its falling, in Jun05 it made a small rocovery but then dropped even more. I guess one should also wait for some good news first, like the most recent annoucement

 

[TheAnalyst]

Re: Great Southern Plantations (GTP)

Yeah i agree with that it can be very risky buying too early when its falling, in Jun05 it made a small rocovery but then dropped even more. I guess one should also wait for some good news first

I must admit it has been a tough one....

 

[Julia]

Re: Great Southern Plantations (GTP)

Sold 20% of my holding on the price rise two days ago. The wait for a recovery is getting a bit long for me. The funds could be otherwise employed in a stock which is growing now.

Julia

 

[TheAnalyst]

Re: Great Southern Plantations (GTP)

Sold 20% of my holding on the price rise two days ago. The wait for a recovery is getting a bit long for me. The funds could be otherwise employed in a stock which is growing now.

Julia

Yer, i see your point with this Julia...i found the same problem months ago and was frustrated that capital could go elsewhere...but the problem was the stock has slowly been making a come back and at times has shot up quite fast...what i decided to do to sought this issue out was i gotout of ordinary shares and into the gtp installment warrants and i am quite happy now.

But this is not advice it was a strategy that i liked...make your own desicion

 

[abucs]

Great Southern Plantations (GTP)

TheAnalyst, how do your hot warrants work ? Is there any incentive for the institution to keep the price down as they expire, or would they prefer a higher price ? I noticed that the share price dipped a couple of weeks ago when the warrants expired just before the latest rise. Can i ask what are your plans with the warrants you are invested in and what you are expecting / hoping for at expiry ?

Julia, you mentioned another site talking about GTP. Could you say which site that is ? I trust you are happy with your portfolio balance now after selling down GTP ? Hope you find something else on the way up.

 

[TheAnalyst]

Re: Great Southern Plantations (GTP)

TheAnalyst, how do your hot warrants work ? Is there any incentive for the institution to keep the price down as they expire, or would they prefer a higher price ? I noticed that the share price dipped a couple of weeks ago when the warrants expired just before the latest rise. Can i ask what are your plans with the warrants you are invested in and what you are expecting / hoping for at expiry ?

Julia, you mentioned another site talking about GTP. Could you say which site that is ? I trust you are happy with your portfolio balance now after selling down GTP ? Hope you find something else on the way up.

Hi Abucs

The hot warrants you are talking about were issued by macquarie and have reconstructs on them i have gtpizk http://www.asx.com.au/asx/markets/WarrantPricesSearchResults.jsp?State=127&DataSet=GTP

I like these ones as the are installments and have a reset meaning that i dont have to take them up at expiry i can just roll them over.

The institutions make their money by charging an up front interest fee and administration cost which is worked into the installment price over the portion that has not been paid for. There are people who's risk profile does not allow them to be exposed to shares but like a guaranteed return so what happens is macquarie or some other institution takes their money buys shares and issues the warrants and therefore guarantees a 6 - 6 1/2 % return to those investors and transfers the risk of the share price over to the purchaser of the shares and makes a nice profit out of the margin and fees. This is just one of the main reasons for installments and what the institutions get for the issue.

 

[TheAnalyst]

Re: Great Southern Plantations (GTP)

TheAnalyst, how do your hot warrants work ? Is there any incentive for the institution to keep the price down as they expire, or would they prefer a higher price ? I noticed that the share price dipped a couple of weeks ago when the warrants expired just before the latest rise. Can i ask what are your plans with the warrants you are invested in and what you are expecting / hoping for at expiry ?

Julia, you mentioned another site talking about GTP. Could you say which site that is ? I trust you are happy with your portfolio balance now after selling down GTP ? Hope you find something else on the way up.

sorry i have been brief but later on tonite just ask whatever and i will have a bit more time to answer you...always happy to help

 

[Julia]

Re: Great Southern Plantations (GTP)

TheAnalyst, how do your hot warrants work ? Is there any incentive for the institution to keep the price down as they expire, or would they prefer a higher price ? I noticed that the share price dipped a couple of weeks ago when the warrants expired just before the latest rise. Can i ask what are your plans with the warrants you are invested in and what you are expecting / hoping for at expiry ?

Julia, you mentioned another site talking about GTP. Could you say which site that is ? I trust you are happy with your portfolio balance now after selling down GTP ? Hope you find something else on the way up.

Abucs:

There are several GTP posters at Share Scene. I suspect at least one of them is a rampant ramper.

No, I'm still overweight in GTP and am looking to reduce it at least a further 60%. So far, have moved funds from sale this week into BHP which has promptly rewarded me by dropping quite substantially. However, I have obvious confidence in BHP's quick recovery, something that just isn't happening fast enough with GTP. At worst, GTP, if it doesn't improve in the short term, will very likely go up substantially again in June with the end of financial year increase in sales.

Analyst:

Glad you're happy with the warrants. I just don't want them at present, but thanks for the suggestion.


Julia

 

[TheAnalyst]

Re: Great Southern Plantations (GTP)

As well as the news for GTP being exceptional at the moment...I have also noticed a triangle forming on the daily price charts as well..with the news behind it this is most likely to be a positive or a bullish pattern??

 

[TheAnalyst]

Re: Great Southern Plantations (GTP)

Here is a chart of GTP...first time i copied from big charts and edited to meet size requirements..if any one has any tips to make it easier would like to hear.