GTP - Great Southern Plantations

[Nicks]

The silence is deafening! Jakob I have never seen you so quiet on this thread before! Hope to see you respond. Cheers.

 

[Jackob]

Hi Nicks,

Sorry I missed your previous post.

I reckon the situation of GTP is worsening. More downside risk.

How about Pch and Portfolio's views on it?

 

[Portfolio]

I'm with you - surprising the SP is staying up here.

Does anyone know was has happened with the Palandri Wine MIS investors? Do they lose their money or does the buyer takeover the management of the MIS for the next x years?

 

[Jackob]

I'm with you - surprising the SP is staying up here.

Does anyone know was has happened with the Palandri Wine MIS investors? Do they lose their money or does the buyer takeover the management of the MIS for the next x years?

I didn't even know the name of "Palandri Wine" - first heard from you - sad to hear the news.

As to the question of why the SP is still staying up there, one reason might be that Ospraire is still buying - it seems that those Yankees can never know what's happening to GTP/MIS in Australia.

 

[Jackob]

Another bad news for GTP and MIS:
http://www.theage.com.au/news/envir...ry-pay-for-rain/2008/05/10/1210131335198.html

Plan to make timber industry pay for rain
Melissa Fyfe
May 11, 2008

IN A blow to Victoria's massive plantation industry, the State Government has moved to make thirsty timber plantations accountable for the water they use.

Companies such as Timbercorp may face extra costs as Government documents show it is considering making them pay for the water the trees suck up.

Many Victorians have sunk millions of dollars into the plantation industry because investments are tax deductible.

The move has worried the industry, which says it is being unfairly "picked on". But the documents show the Government is concerned that precious rain that would flow into groundwater and then to streams is intercepted by thousands of hectares of plantation trees, leaving less for farmers, rural towns and the environment.

Under the 2004 National Water Initiative, all Australian governments agreed that changes in land use — such as large-scale plantations — could significantly affect the amount of water available to others, and needed to be regulated. The Brumby Government, which adopted the commitment in its water plan, recently released a tender to develop such a policy. The tender documents indicate where the Government may be headed on the issue.

The Department of Primary Industries tender refers to all sorts of land use changes that affect water availability, but it clearly has the plantation industry in its sights.

It suggests the successful contractor consider a permit system or "market-based mechanisms", which the industry believes may mean it has to buy the water the trees use.

Asking companies to pay for the water trees use is controversial because it is, essentially, charging for the rain that falls on private property. Such a decision could have implications beyond the plantation industry.

"It is complicated and legally questionable about how you would charge a plantation grower for using the water that falls on their land," said Richard Stanton, manager of policy at the Australian Plantation Products and Paper Industry Council. He said the water use of plantations was exaggerated and there were far more significant issues to deal with.

The Government faces the tricky task of balancing the benefit of plantations — reducing carbon in the atmosphere, erosion prevention, better water quality — with the negative "third party" impacts of taking water out of the system.

A 2003 study said all types of reforestation in the Murray-Darling Basin would suck 600 billion litres of water from the system each year by 2020. The industry argues this overestimates the number of trees that will be planted, and its best guess is that, by 2028, plantations will take 50 billion litres from the basin.

The tender, called Impacts of land use change on water resources — policy analysis and development, shows that recent studies of south-western Victoria have found that plantations and climate change have sucked 6% to 10% of surface and groundwater from the region.

Matt Hillard, a spokesman for Victorian Agriculture Minister Joe Helper, said it was important for the Government to ensure resources were well managed.

Allan Hansard, chief executive officer of the National Association of Forest Industries, said it was too early to jump to conclusions but the industry should not be "picked on".

The companies that may be affected by any policy change include Timbercorp, Great Southern Plantations, ITC, HVP Plantations, Midway and Willmott Forests.

Under the tender, the contractor must report back with policy options by early October.

 

[brty]

Hi,

I think tonights budget will have far greater impact on the SP than the water thing.

Nothing at all tonight, means leaving it up to the courts to decide in the test case. A decision is expected around Christmas. This would be short term bullish for GTP.

However if there is something in the budget about MIS, then real game starts tomorrow.

brty

 

[Portfolio]

Keep holding then brty......its only money.

I dont think there will be anything in the budget personally.
Why would there be? Things are progressing nicely. Maybe next budget if they cant win the court case they would put something in place to stop MIS.

 

[barnz2k]

Just doesn't let up for these guys.. I think im just looking for an exit strategy now. Anyone still confident in these guys long-term?

 

[Jackob]

Just doesn't let up for these guys.. I think im just looking for an exit strategy now. Anyone still confident in these guys long-term?

No I am not confident in these guys in long-term either.

In short-term, wait for the HY report in the last week of this month and see any triggers for a price movement.

(I reckon the HY results would most likely be negative.)

 

[Jackob]

http://www.wabusinessnews.com.au/en-story/1/63260/Great-Southern-suffers-49m-loss

Great Southern suffers $49m loss
26-May-08 by Mark Beyer

Investment manager Great Southern Ltd has commenced a strategic review of its business after reporting a worse than expected loss of $49.1 million for the half-year to 31 March 2008.

The company has previously foreshadowed that it would incur a loss but a blow-out in provisions for doubtful debts to $37.2 million made the loss larger than anticipated.

The latest result compared with a net profit of $14.9 million in the previous corresponding half-year.

Chief executive Cameron Rhodes said the company has begun a comprehensive strategic review of its business "to provide a more sustainable, transparent and valuable business that can become less susceptible to regulatory forces".

 

[barnz2k]

Dividend is payable early July - maybe some people are holding out for the dividend and then there will be a sell off? I dont chart but seems like July last 2 years was a sell off.
I got lost, has there been a final verdict on the tax advantages yet?

3c Dividend, to me that works out at about $55 (reinvested as shares), so may not be worth holding out for

 

[Jackob]

Dividend is payable early July - maybe some people are holding out for the dividend and then there will be a sell off? I dont chart but seems like July last 2 years was a sell off.
I got lost, has there been a final verdict on the tax advantages yet?

3c Dividend, to me that works out at about $55 (reinvested as shares), so may not be worth holding out for

Barnz2k,

You are right that dividend is payable in July. However, the ex-dividend date is 16/6, less than 10 days away. It may cause some buying interest next week.

You are also right that July was usually a sell-off month for GTP in recent years. This is because on 1/7 GTP always announces its whole year sales number and in recent years the numbers were not very good at all.

In the first half of this year GTP's sales dropped by $99m from $150M to $51M and e/s dropped from 5c to -15c. In the 2H2008, if GTP could manage to sell as much as 2H2007, then it might be able to earn 15c/share as last year, the e/s of the whole year would be -15c+15c=0c. This might trigger another July sell-off.

 

[barnz2k]

Thanks Jackob

So does that mean if someone buys the shares and holds only from just before the 16th they are eligible for dividend payment??

And would I/they have to wait till the 17th to actually get the dividend? Im currently on share Reinvestment plan so would need the extra shares to clear first if I was planning to sell after it


Hope your right with some interest due to the dividend- down another 4%today

 

[Jackob]

Thanks Jackob

So does that mean if someone buys the shares and holds only from just before the 16th they are eligible for dividend payment??

And would I/they have to wait till the 17th to actually get the dividend? ...

Barnz2k,

Sorry that the ex-dividend date should be 12/6 instead of 16/6.

This means that if you sell your shares on 11/6 you won't have the dividend, but if you sell them on 12/6 you can get the divvy.

 

[barnz2k]

thanks for clearing that up. Very interesting.
Potentially selling may start on 12th then.
Although with reinvestment plan selected, even selling all my shares I would be given back a small parcel of shares (which selling would lose half in brokerage) unless I could change that option or it does auto on selling all shares.

 

[barnz2k]

well I was right about the sell off - but it seems to all have happened a day early 12% down in one day. $&%#

Now will this continue to keep sliding or possible rebound.

 

[Aussiejeff]

well I was right about the sell off - but it seems to all have happened a day early 12% down in one day. $&%#

Now will this continue to keep sliding or possible rebound.

Sliding...... dropped a further 30% in 12 days to low of 69.5c on 25th June. Terrible performance.

Meanwhile, one of the US' biggest agricultural hedge funds - Ospraie Management LLC - has been chipping away and bought up almost 20% of GTP's shares.

They had their wings clipped badly in 2006 the last time agricultural and commodity markets tanked a bit. Hopefully for GTP holders, given the shaky outlook at present, Ospraie don't get caught short again and have to sell down that 20% in a hurry. All those eggs in one basket of a US hedgie is a bit of a worry to smaller shareholders?



AJ
(ex-holder)

 

[Julia]

I was only half listening to the radio news item, but isn't there currently some political discussion about wiping tax benefits for agribusiness?

Might not affect GTP. Does anyone know?

I haven't been following this company (sold it about three years ago thank goodness) but still curious about why the inexorable downward slide.

 

[barnz2k]

I dont really know a lot about it - I originally bought GTP as a friend suggested it when I was getting into shares - he still holds about double what I do.

I think GTP used to be attractive because of the tax break - and it has been in discussion a while now about getting rid of the benefist associated - leaving people with little reason left to have interest in GTP.

Not sure what that spike was yesterday up to almost 0.8. But damn, my avg cost (from div shares not buying more) is a bit under $2.80..

ohwell, holiday tomorrow woohooo dont think about my GTP/VBA/BNB nightmares

 

[fgwyn]

Just doesn't let up for these guys.. I think im just looking for an exit strategy now. Anyone still confident in these guys long-term?

Any advice now they are down below 60c ? (I bought in at $3.15 - ouch !)
Should I buy more and lower average price ?

Hard to see where this company is going (regardless of 'strategic review')
Any thoughts much appreciated.