GTP - Great Southern Plantations

[Jackob]

Ok, so I have been watching GTP over the last few days and have noticed an uptrend in share price from what it seems to be small parcells of purchases every 30 seconds to 1 minute.

Is this the big stake thats getting built up for the takeover that was first raised in June?????

Hi Nicks,

I am also watching the PDN trading. Today the number of "total trades" is 141 at 2:05:30 pm, so it is about 1'42'' per "trade" on average. But most "trades" are of small quantities and usually multiple "trades" happen at the same time as a big trade, so the actual time between consecutive trades is about 4 or 5 minutes, longer than the 1'42'' average.

 

[tommymac]

Just with GTP and to an extent TIM, from a valuation and 'earnings' perspective, my thinking is you go straight for the cashflow statement........It's tough to value a business in this 'industry' with the inherent complexity, but in addition, you can tell that GTP is a dishonest company..I think everybody in this industry already knows this...in this context, you need to question investment totally, but at the least place more emphasis on the statement of cashflows.......

Rainmaker2000

I've been looking at this company tentatively though as of yet I have not looked at the management, only the financials.

Why do you say this company is "dishonest"?

Thanks
Tommymac

 

[aaronphetamine]

Wow did anyone see the buy depth just after the close at 4pm... GTP closed at 4.30 after spending most the day at 3.6-3.8 area..

does anyone know what was wuth the late buy up (about 160 000 shares brought)

 

[Portfolio]

No I didnt see that. Are you talking about GTP?

Why would anyone pay more than NAV - $2.20/share? Wouldnt you just go and buy private land holdings at cost price? Any predator is going to want a discount to take on the skeletons?

Anyway i agree that something will happen here shortly as the company wont want to keep trading into 2008 - MIS is over. The only thing up in the air is price.

 

[Rainmaker2000]

"Why would anyone pay more than NAV - $2.20/share? Wouldnt you just go and buy private land holdings at cost price? Any predator is going to want a discount to take on the skeletons?"

Just on GTP, one thing its got going for it is that its been gobbling up all the best planation land for some years.....contrary to my first understanding, such land is a very finite asset not just for forestry but many farming enterprises....to such an extent that many in the industry now believe that GTP is buying and developing remaining land which is totally sub-economic for planations....of course they don't care cause its 10 years till their 'investors' will realise..you may note that TIM is basically taking on almost no new planation land compared to GTP..so there existing land bank can't be replicated by buying land privately.

Just on the 'honesty' of the company, its accounts are the starting point for this claim but basically the whole enterprise may well be a bit of a sham.........Investors are now 'digging up' the trees from the first years of planting and hey presto, the 'investment forecasts' made by GTP is way off the mark......instead of letting these investors wither on the vine, GTP have been 'topping up' there returns with shareholder money......this has not been too significant an expense up to date, but some big lots of trees are being dug up in coming years and GTP can not keep paying off their investors....at the end of the day, people may just realise that plantation investing has been a tax sham all along and most plantations give a worse return than an ING account

GTP is the type of company that makes bottom feeding for stocks very interesting....

 

[So_Cynical]

I'm not holding Great Southern Plantations...just interested if any1 knows
what there "forestry offset" position is...u know "carbon credits"

how many tonnes of offsets do they have?...they must have some
prob a heap...and at some stage in the next 2 years they will be
very valuable.

 

[Dutchy3]

Back on the 09/05/07 I called this one above 2.75 .... This time although I see a potential for a rise in price perhaps not as rapidly ... lets see ...

 

[Rainmaker2000]

Regarding carbon credits........basically the industry is starting to look at this and it is no 'done deal' that they have any carbon offsets at all.....there is currently much debate and carbon research is being conducted adjacent to GTP and TIM sites....as I understand it, even the scientists debate the carbon worth of trees that are planted for 10 years and then cut into wood chips.....still my view is that there's got to be worse industries to be in than planting trees these days

 

[pch]

"Investors are now 'digging up' the trees from the first years of planting and hey presto, the 'investment forecasts' made by GTP is way off the mark......instead of letting these investors wither on the vine, GTP have been 'topping up' there returns with shareholder money......this has not been too significant an expense up to date, but some big lots of trees are being dug up in coming years and GTP can not keep paying off their investors"

Check my late July post (and a few times prior to this). They should account for this on the balance sheet as a liability under provisions. They have publicly stated that they will no longer need to do that as by their own admission their first 3 years of plantations were crap as they outsourced it. Not saying the results are what investors want.. but they have said they do not need such provisions going forward due to the increased density/tree size and therefore yield per woodlot from 1997 or 1998 onwards (I forget which).

"....at the end of the day, people may just realise that plantation investing has been a tax sham all along and most plantations give a worse return than an ING account

Sssh!! Next you will be telling me all those motivational wealth guys books and dvd's on late night infomercials are a waste of money!

In relation to carbon credits, check my post 8th august on this subject. I asked GTP about this earlier in the year after researching how they worked. I wouldn't buy them based on any hope here..

regards

pch

 

[So_Cynical]

Ok i didn't know they are only growing for pulp...still under Kyoto if the land use changes then the increase in carbon storage is claimable.

Didn't i read a post here that GSP were going to grow teak in QLD..teak
ain't a pulp tree.

 

[Nicks]

Back on the 09/05/07 I called this one above 2.75 .... This time although I see a potential for a rise in price perhaps not as rapidly ... lets see ...

I agree Dutchy, something is going on and it seems a steady price increase is happening, which I called the beginning of a couple of weeks back. You can clearly see the automated buys going on every few seconds / minutes and this has nibbled away at the sellers. Over enthusisatic sellers have been biting at this carrot but in the end it may be to their own detriment as it shows no signs of abating.

Someone is definately building up a stash ready for something, an insti buyout maybe, the balance sheet has to look appealing. In the meantime im going to sit back and watch the nibbles. Looking like a steady rise to high 2s or even $3 is on the cars over the next 4 weeks.

Good short gain i think is to be expected whatever your opionions of their strategic business value, there is no denying whats going on.

 

[Jackob]

... You can clearly see the automated buys going on every few seconds / minutes and this has nibbled away at the sellers. Over enthusisatic sellers have been biting at this carrot but in the end it may be to their own detriment as it shows no signs of abating. ...

Hi Nicks,

What you have seen I believe might be just “automated/programmed trading”, which happens to most stocks in the market nowadays.

What those automated traders do is “scalping”, which makes profits from the price spreads between the buyers and sellers. So these orders have to occur on both buyer/sellers sides, and they are always in tiny sizes and passive, sitting in the queue waiting the other side buy/sell them.

Today, GTP has a total turnover of 364138 shares, and ~111 time-distinguishable trades, with average size of 3280 share per trade in every 2.7 minutes.

Hardly see any “automated buys going on every few seconds / minutes and this has nibbled away at the sellers.”

 

[Nicks]

Hi All,

I just got off the phone to GTP, Investor Relations - Debbie / Deidre something like that. She is the person I got put through to after I asked to speak to Jim Young.

Anyway I asked mainly about two things and thought I would summarise as and share them:
1. Dividend. Expected to be in December, announced November.
2. Takeover. I asked about the 'takeover' announcement on June 12. Basically it still stands as is. The party that is concerned is serious enough and significant enough that they had to release that announcement to the market on June 12. The next step has still not finalised yet so they cannot comment further, however they are expecting to be able to do this sooner or later in the future.

Hope this helps and if you want to be sure about the accuracy please call the company for yourself.

 

[The Captain]

I have been watching this thread for some time and can also tell that I was told that the Great Southern board is yet to confirm the next dividend date or amount however they anticipate that the next dividend will be paid in December 2007. I have to agree with others in regards to the share price in the downwards movement. I think we are going to see below the $2. My target is $1.80 where I think it will have to be re-assessed. The weekly chart shows Elliot Wave and it is looking towards this level of $1.80 beore we see a retracement to the $3 previous levels. It shows that the wave 5 ($1.80) may come in around 26th November. Remember these are my own thoughts and you should do you own research.

 

[Portfolio]

Nicks,

If you ask for John Young say you are from Macquarie and you might be better chance of getting through.

Also ask Debbie the hard questions - ask her what the 1996 growers were returned for their $3,000 investment 10 years ago - net of GST. Then ask her what they expect for future growers 1997, 1998 etc.

If the figure is low - ask her if she thinks this poor return will impact sales and reduce profits over the next few years. Ask her if she expects the company will have any backlash / litigation from the low return. Ask her if this would be having any impact on the so called takeover.

I could post the answers but i dont want to spoil your fun.

 

[YELNATS]

Nicks,

If you ask for John Young say you are from Macquarie and you might be better chance of getting through.

Also ask Debbie the hard questions - ask her what the 1996 growers were returned for their $3,000 investment 10 years ago - net of GST. Then ask her what they expect for future growers 1997, 1998 etc.

If the figure is low - ask her if she thinks this poor return will impact sales and reduce profits over the next few years. Ask her if she expects the company will have any backlash / litigation from the low return. Ask her if this would be having any impact on the so called takeover.

I could post the answers but i dont want to spoil your fun.

A little strange, playing with riddles? Portfolio, if you think you know the answers to these matters, please "spoil our fun" and go ahead and post them. After all this is supposed to be a free and open forum. Thanks.

 

[Jackob]

I used to say that GTP's business was in the chronical hidden loss and it was not sustainable in long-term.

Would this nightmare become a reality?

 

[Nicks]

A little strange, playing with riddles? Portfolio, if you think you know the answers to these matters, please "spoil our fun" and go ahead and post them. After all this is supposed to be a free and open forum. Thanks.

I agree with Yelnats. Portfolio could you please not post riddles and indeed spoil our fun. The purpose of the forum is to share info for the benefit of all. If you have this info (facts or opinion) I, and others, would appreciate you share it so we can benefit. Just deliniate between fact and opinion so it can help us make up our own mind.

So if you have spoken to Debbie and have these answers, please post the answers to the questions, just as I did. Thanks.

 

[Jackob]

We all prefer detailed information, but I also appreciate “riddles” with gratitude, if this kind of "riddle" makes itself hardly a “riddle” any more.

1996 Growers return. The 1994 and 1995 growers returns were both “propped up” by more than 100% from the real harvest to achieve a ~5% p.a. yield. If the 1996 crop could not be “propped up” in the same way, the growers wouldn’t be able to get their principle back for sure. I guess all 1996 growers should have already got a letter from GTP or soon.

 

[Nicks]

We all prefer detailed information, but I also appreciate “riddles” with gratitude, if this kind of "riddle" makes itself hardly a “riddle” any more.

1996 Growers return. The 1994 and 1995 growers returns were both “propped up” by more than 100% from the real harvest to achieve a ~5% p.a. yield. If the 1996 crop could not be “propped up” in the same way, the growers wouldn’t be able to get their principle back for sure. I guess all 1996 growers should have already got a letter from GTP or soon.

Thanks Jokob. Can you please provide some substance to this claim, "'propped up' by more than 100% from the real harvest"? otherwise it sounds like a conspiracy theory.