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Takeover speculation.
http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,21841656-664,00.html
Timbercorp is on the move up as well.
GTP - Great Southern Plantations
- Thread starter Rafa
- Start date
Takeover speculation.
http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,21841656-664,00.html
Timbercorp is on the move up as well.
Hi Kat82 & Pirate04 for comments & reports.
Whilst the news.com.au link didn't work the item was easily found on the news.com.au search.
Further to this GTP have also released their latest 'News update newsletter" which I recently received.
A couple of items that stand out here.
Woodchip prices (Hardwood plantation) increased by 4.6% to $189.40 per ton with greater demand for plantation timber. This has to be a good thing for GTP and is encoraging.
Interestingly though in terms of confidence of GTP's Agribusiness the Plantation Timber rated lowest in the AAG ratings with 3.5 stars & with GTP's Beef cattle with 4.5 stars.
GTP has 5 projects closing between June 15 & June 30, so lots of cash coming into GTP right now. What the investor gets at the end of it all is anyone's guess. The TAX benefits are always pushed hard by GTP for those at the high income tax levels.
On a global outlook timber prices must increase as resources decrease. What will be GTP's ratio of investment be in timber in 5 years time compared to its other agribusiness investments - I don't know.
Looking at peak oil - if we've reached that point? In the much longer term will paper/wood/metal packaging return in greater popularity as plastic based products become more expensive given that so much stuff is made from crude oil: plastics, cosmetics, medicines, paints etc. What alternative is there to crude oil for the manufacturing of plastics etc re packaging. Something to ponder.....
Whilst the news.com.au link didn't work the item was easily found on the news.com.au search.
Further to this GTP have also released their latest 'News update newsletter" which I recently received.
A couple of items that stand out here.
Woodchip prices (Hardwood plantation) increased by 4.6% to $189.40 per ton with greater demand for plantation timber. This has to be a good thing for GTP and is encoraging.
Interestingly though in terms of confidence of GTP's Agribusiness the Plantation Timber rated lowest in the AAG ratings with 3.5 stars & with GTP's Beef cattle with 4.5 stars.
GTP has 5 projects closing between June 15 & June 30, so lots of cash coming into GTP right now. What the investor gets at the end of it all is anyone's guess. The TAX benefits are always pushed hard by GTP for those at the high income tax levels.
On a global outlook timber prices must increase as resources decrease. What will be GTP's ratio of investment be in timber in 5 years time compared to its other agribusiness investments - I don't know.
Looking at peak oil - if we've reached that point? In the much longer term will paper/wood/metal packaging return in greater popularity as plastic based products become more expensive given that so much stuff is made from crude oil: plastics, cosmetics, medicines, paints etc. What alternative is there to crude oil for the manufacturing of plastics etc re packaging. Something to ponder.....
Interesting trading today considering it went EX-DIV today....up to $2.60 at one stage...and closed up 5 c at $2.56.....looks bullish on the charts.......................i wonder if something cooking .........other than the fact that it should be going up and finally realising its true value.
Hi Kat82 & Pirate04 for comments & reports.
Whilst the news.com.au link didn't work the item was easily found on the news.com.au search.
Further to this GTP have also released their latest 'News update newsletter" which I recently received.
A couple of items that stand out here.
Woodchip prices (Hardwood plantation) increased by 4.6% to $189.40 per ton with greater demand for plantation timber. This has to be a good thing for GTP and is encoraging.
Interestingly though in terms of confidence of GTP's Agribusiness the Plantation Timber rated lowest in the AAG ratings with 3.5 stars & with GTP's Beef cattle with 4.5 stars.
GTP has 5 projects closing between June 15 & June 30, so lots of cash coming into GTP right now. What the investor gets at the end of it all is anyone's guess. The TAX benefits are always pushed hard by GTP for those at the high income tax levels.
On a global outlook timber prices must increase as resources decrease. What will be GTP's ratio of investment be in timber in 5 years time compared to its other agribusiness investments - I don't know.
Looking at peak oil - if we've reached that point? In the much longer term will paper/wood/metal packaging return in greater popularity as plastic based products become more expensive given that so much stuff is made from crude oil: plastics, cosmetics, medicines, paints etc. What alternative is there to crude oil for the manufacturing of plastics etc re packaging. Something to ponder.....
kooka873
I am relatively new to this stock, having bought it in mid-May. Must admit that I didn't know much about it and bought it for a quick punt. Started looking at when I repeatedly failed to sell at the price I wanted to exit. The acquisition news made me think hard about the story:
(1) What is GTP? Is it a forestry or fund management company? The company projects itself as an MIS company. Then again, it is selling to investors the positive outlook for the forestry and agriculture industry. It will indeed help sell the MIS projects but can GTP's bottomline fully benefit from say the increase in global pulp prices?
(2) Based on historical financials, GTP indeed has not enhanced shareholders' value - it's EPS has been flat for the past few years and debt level has increased. This is contrary to other pure forestry companies in the market which have enjoyed the strong global pulp prices in the past few years.
(3) The stock prices of any other companies will normally increase in value when their land prices increase. Not GTP. It appears that increase in land prices is a headache.
Given the above, would GTP be better to be run as a forestry company, instead of a fund management company? Where has the value been lost? Perhaps this is the angle of the private equity investors. GTP's huge landbank and forestry assets may be worth a lot more than the share prices suggested.
Just quote a few lines from the announcement,
”Great Southern Limited (ASX: GTP) advises that over the weekend the company received a preliminary, non-binding and incomplete expression of interest from a party interested in exploring a transaction involving the future ownership of the company. ...
“There is currently no proposal capable of being recommended by the Board or putting to shareholders for their consideration. There is no certainty that any definitive proposal will be received at any future time. Shareholders should be cautious about drawing any inference about whether any definitive proposal will eventuate or the possible pricing of any definitive proposal. ... ”
It sound as if a joke which J Young got in the long weekend party can be written as above. LOL!
I reckon there is virtually no chance for such an "expression of interest" to eventuate.
”Great Southern Limited (ASX: GTP) advises that over the weekend the company received a preliminary, non-binding and incomplete expression of interest from a party interested in exploring a transaction involving the future ownership of the company. ...
“There is currently no proposal capable of being recommended by the Board or putting to shareholders for their consideration. There is no certainty that any definitive proposal will be received at any future time. Shareholders should be cautious about drawing any inference about whether any definitive proposal will eventuate or the possible pricing of any definitive proposal. ... ”
It sound as if a joke which J Young got in the long weekend party can be written as above. LOL!
I reckon there is virtually no chance for such an "expression of interest" to eventuate.
Seems to be all speculation for us at the moment.
http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,21849073-664,00.html?from=public_rss
http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,21849073-664,00.html?from=public_rss
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what would this mean to us shareholders?
Short term increases followed by who-knows-what depending on who takes over?
(assuming this isnt all a myth)
Short term increases followed by who-knows-what depending on who takes over?
(assuming this isnt all a myth)
great finish for GTP .........................up 31cents on the week.
Don't forget the sales results will be released on Monday for the non-forestry products.
Hoping it is atleast $173 million. (This will give us growth of about 20% on last year)
Breakdown
Cattle - $78M
Olives - $45
Wine - $35
Almonds -$15M
Then again the results may be overshadowed by the Mergers and acquisitions speculation.
Don't forget the sales results will be released on Monday for the non-forestry products.
Hoping it is atleast $173 million. (This will give us growth of about 20% on last year)
Breakdown
Cattle - $78M
Olives - $45
Wine - $35
Almonds -$15M
Then again the results may be overshadowed by the Mergers and acquisitions speculation.
Dutchy3,
Please excuse me for my ignorance in charting, but isn't the formation called "isolated islands"?
Hi Dutchy3,
Yes, a chartist told me that the present GTP chart pattern is called “isolated island(s)”, which usually has only one island, but this time it has 2. This kind of pattern indicates the price levels may not be sustainable. So your above prediction “This stock will see 2.75+ before 2.00 again" can be perfectly correct.
Today’s candlestick pattern is a doji star with reduced volume, which may also well indicate a reversal.
Definitely seeing 2.75+ now. Closed at 2.86 and up 2.88% today. But on relatively low volume. Are sellers holding tightly for some possible news??
Wonder if the widespread rain is helping????
Its been a little while since the speculation of the talks for a takeover bid. Don't know if it will substitate to anything??
From the charts clearly this has formed a nice little cup, but no sign of the handle yet.
If the cup and handle is formed then we are looking at around $3.60.
Or will this head back down to $2.00
Thoughts?
Wonder if the widespread rain is helping????
Its been a little while since the speculation of the talks for a takeover bid. Don't know if it will substitate to anything??
From the charts clearly this has formed a nice little cup, but no sign of the handle yet.
If the cup and handle is formed then we are looking at around $3.60.
Or will this head back down to $2.00
Thoughts?
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GTP continuing to buck the trend.. Closing at an eve $3 today!!
I think this is the first time ive seen a real gain since ive held it!
hope your right on that $3.60
I think this is the first time ive seen a real gain since ive held it!
hope your right on that $3.60
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If the ann is potentially bad, then it might be a chance to take profit before it happens? As I recall last time people thought they werent true figures - as they suggested huge profit increase but didnt count for the massive debt increase too. So it wasnt as positive as made out to be..
