Jackob said:Hi Portfolio,
Well done! Glad to see your work after I am just back from holiday. To make your tables more realistic, however, I would like to modify them by adding in a few more items as follows.
Profit and Loss:
1. $9,000 income
2. ($1,500) commissions / marketing etc
3. ($1,500) establishment expenses
4. ($1,000) expenses on established trees
5. ($1,000) office expenses
6. ($ 500 ) expenses on debt interest
7. $3.500 declared as profits before tax
8. ($1,050) corporate profit tax (30%)
9. $ 2,045 declared as profits after tax.
Cashflow Statement:
1. $9,000 received from securitized debt
2. ($1,500) paid to advisor and marketing
3. ($1,500) on establishing new plantations
4. ($1,000) expenses on established trees
5. ($1,000) office expenses
6. ($ 500) expenses on debt interest
7. $3,500 operating cash flow before tax
8. ($1,050) corporate profit tax (30%)
9. $2,045 declared as operating cash flow after tax
10. ($1,000) expenses on dividends
11. $1,045 left for buying land
Note:
1. GTP’s profit margin (before tax) was about 38% last year, so the $3500 profit (before tax) for each $9000 revenue is more realistic (Item 7).
2. Items 4 and 5 are increasing year by year as the area of established trees is increasing.
3. Debt interest (item 6) is also increasing dramatically. Last year’s debt increased from $80M by $532M to $612M. These debt will cost ~$65M p.a., more than 10% of the total revenue ($450M)
4. Just 2 or 3 years ago, GTP’s pulpwood revenue doubled year by year, so the item 1 in the cash flow table should be halved for each hectare new land.
Now return to the above tables. The $1045 cash left is not enough to buy a hectare of land, which is worth about $7000, so GTP has to borrow at least $5000, or ~56% of the $9000 revenue, from banks for it. [As said in the Note 3, last years new debt ($532M) in fact was about 118% of the total revenue ($450M)]. Say each hectare of land still only needs $5000 debt, which cost about $500 p.a. in interest. On the other hand, the valuation of the land is increased only 1% above inflation (say 3% pa) in long term. So the total revaluation of the land is about $7000*4% = $280 pa, which is far less than the interest cost. Thus the GTP pulpwood projects are actually in a chronic loss year by year, while in its accounts as shown in the above table, it still managed to have a huge profit margin (38%) and big profit and e/s so far.
So this is why people often say the GTP projects are unlikely sustainable in long-term, and why in recent years GTP’s debt is skyrocketing while its “profit” (and e/s) is flattish. Obviously, in the coming years GTP’s profit and e/s will have to drop, and its debt will further skyrocket.
TheAbyss said:Does anyone think a bounce back is on the cards tomorrow or havent we seen the low yet? I understand the news was potentially bad however has there been the usual over reaction?
PorscheACE said:Does anyone have access to Last 10 Trades data for GTP closing market on 7/2/06?
I have just looked at this and it seems someone has purchased a MASSIVE amount of shares at crazy prices...does this look ok or has someone just said "SHOOT ME" ???
07-02-2007 04:10 PM $21.900 200 $4,380.000
07-02-2007 04:10 PM $21.900 15168 $332,179.200
07-02-2007 04:10 PM $21.900 5666 $124,085.400
07-02-2007 04:10 PM $21.900 4334 $94,914.600
07-02-2007 04:10 PM $21.900 2864 $62,721.600
07-02-2007 04:10 PM $21.900 5000 $109,500.000
07-02-2007 04:10 PM $21.900 5000 $109,500.000
07-02-2007 04:10 PM $21.900 7802 $170,863.800
07-02-2007 04:10 PM $21.900 30000 $657,000.000
07-02-2007 04:10 PM $21.900 655 $14,344.500
Comments people?
Hello and welcome to Aussie Stock Forums!
To gain full access you must register. Registration is free and takes only a few seconds to complete.
Already a member? Log in here.