Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

GTP - Great Southern Plantations

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Re: Great Southern Plantations..

For any members following GTP, there is a transcript of an interview of 15.7.05 with John Young on the ASX website today.


Julia
 
Re: Great Southern Plantations..

Thanks Julia,
This one is looking good to me.
Not easy finding good stocks at present.

I am not happy with other stocks mentioned today
ie BSL GUD SMM PDN LVL
Short term anyway.
I have been wrong many times . :)
 
Re: Great Southern Plantations..

Are there any technical people who could comment on this stock. The SP is continuing to drop despite a generally rising market. I don't know of any particular reasons why it should be doing so.

Would appreciate any informed comments from anyone.

With thanks.

Julia
 
Re: Great Southern Plantations..

Julia,

TA can't tell you why a stock is going down, just a probability of where it is going next. The stock has been going down at high volume which is a bad sign. It is currently at a support of just over $3. If I was still holding the stock, I would definitely sell if it broke below $3 as it could then fall very fast.

Where I would consider buying -

1. If the support held with volume (with a very tight stop)
2. If the gap around the end of June filled
3. Broke $4.40

Note: These are my opinions and probably not worth the bytes they are written on. I have not licenses etc etc.

MIT.
 
Re: Great Southern Plantations..

I have been looking at the stock and have been wondering myself....i noted that the net profit for this year is 119.6 million which is down on the forecast and Mcquarie bank has down graded next financial years net profit to 151.0 million but even at these figures and compares to other companies earning and P/E ratios the stock is under valued....so what is the problem...well firstly i looked at how many ordinary shares are on issue and realised that the market which means the big players who make up the majority of share ownership (Banks, Funds and other corporates) rated the P/E for the stock maily between 6 and 8 %.

Then I realised if this is the case then the stock on the 119.6 million net profit would be valued at roughly $2.80 and as i have noticed that slowly and cunningly the stock has been off loaded as the major players get the best price for the stock without causing a fast collapse by the volume of sales.

Then on the Mcquarie banks forecast of a net profit of 151.0 million that means with the P/E ratio of between 6-8% the most it can go to is $3.60.

So i reckon and this is my opinion it will go below $3 and then collapse. Eventually if the market decides it should earn a higher P/E ratio then that will help lift its price.

Warning: do not rely one my opinions go elsewhere
 
Re: Great Southern Plantations..

That is a good analysis...

I completely sold out at 3:60... after the second big drop in a few months! Been looking to get in again, but based on this, plus the fact that it just keeps dropping, I might wait.
 
Re: Great Southern Plantations..

I have been in GTP for over 2 years but finally bailed out recently at $3.59 after selling down over the previous 3 months or so. The biggest worries for me were their move away from trees into boutique vineyards, olives and cattle. Even so I would not hesitate to get back in under the right circumstances. Agree with the opinion that it is currently overvalued.
 
Re: Great Southern Plantations..

The fact that they are diversifying into other areas is'nt the real problem for as i think that this is a great idea...becuase each micro sector of the the entire economy has individual economic or business cycles.

Diversifying actually helps reduce decreasing revenue risks as well as providing investors diversification with their investment choices which is a major rule for investors who dont handle their own investments.

My concern is market timing...when is the best time and the best point of value to get into a stock and GTP is a difficult one and being outside the top one hundred makes it a small cap and therefore increases its volitility which can be a bonus if you can pick market bottoms.

You find that most top stocks have P/E 's between 13 and 18 at the moment and if GTP was the same it would be almost double the price but due to extra risk placed upon it it usually trades with a P/E of 6-8 % so with the net profit being lowered thats where its most likely has to go.

But the analysts may well get it wrong and it will continue on somewhere down the track.
 
Re: Great Southern Plantations..

This stock will continue to trend down. It will not recover for a year or two.
 
Re: Great Southern Plantations..

Guycharles

Could you explain on what basis you make this prediction.

Julia

PS Commonwealth Bank were buying the stock today.
 
Re: Great Southern Plantations..

how do you know that Commonwealth bank were buying the stock as i didnt see any public announcements.
 
Re: Great Southern Plantations..

Hello Analyst,

Broker told me this yesterday afternoon.

Julia
 
Re: Great Southern Plantations..

Looks like less selling volume today...obviously the brokers knew that if they pushed it to hard and it dropped below $3 to fast they wouldnt be able to get the best price for the stock they were selling.

So they took it easy today as Friday is sensitive to selling pressure and made buyers believe it was going to sit on its support of $3 but once it goes below that that will be it...to $2.80 roughly


My opinion only so the advice will have to come from a licensed professional.
 
Re: Great Southern Plantations..

Hi again BXP

Are you gonna say why you believe what you believe? or are you just shooting your mouth off?
 
Re: Great Southern Plantations (GTP)

Let me guess you and BXG have managed too save a couple of thousand dollars between yourselves since you done all your dough after you began in the market during the dot.com boom so yoy are gonna try and have another guess again.
 
Re: Great Southern Plantations (GTP)

Wow... it actually has broken the support!
Great call there...
 

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