GTP - Great Southern Plantations
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Hi Michael,
I have been chatting with investor mates of mine and collectively we have come up with the following REVISED sales figures for GTP (forecast guesstimates at best ......could end up being a mile off)..........but there are several mates of mine that chat with the managers of GTP now and then and these estimates are based on what they say now and then..............
1. Timber plantations - It has been said that the product is selling very well however due to the increase in capex for the land they really want to see CONTROLLED growth in this product and increase the income products to 70% 30% ratio this year....therefore i would only expect a modest increase in sales for this product.....i wouldn't be suprised if they announce to the market well before the JUNE 30 cut off that they have capped the sales for this product....therefore say $108 million first half and + $217M = $325M (They actually prefer this type of growth)
2. Vineyards - Based on a 500 Ha projection = approx $38 Million they are expecting more from the cattle product to offset the viticulture product. The minimum is 300 Hectares. For obvious reasons I think that they are only selling the vineyards that have contracts with them.. expect modest growth here.
3. Olives - based on 740 hectares = $ 59 Million could go as high as 64Million based on 800 Ha selling well.
4. Cattle - $40-50 million may also go as high as $60 million.
This gives us a total sales figure of $325 Plantations and $145 million other than plantations = $470 million ...... which is more than the estimate of Macquaries Report which had stated $400M.
Note also that the proportion of the "other than plantation" is now 30% similar to what they forecast at the AGM of up to 30%.
Now the recoginsed revenue for the year will be as follows:-
1. plantation (recognised say 48%) = 325 x .48 =156
2. vineyards - (recognised = 90% a figure i got from GTP) = 38 x .9 =34
3. olives ( recognised = 70% same as above) = 59 x .7 = 41.3
4. cattle (85%) = 50x .85 = 42.5
5. deferred revenue of $150 m
therefore we have the following project revenues:
156+34+41.3+42.5+150 = $424Million add the other revenue (interest, finance and fees)as per last year say another $25 million and this gives us Project Revenue of $451Million (41% increase on last years figure) Subtract the top up of earlier projects say $2.3Million == total project revenues of $446million
profit = .389 (similar margin to last year) x 446= $173 million (up 40%)
Their EPS was affected last year due to the acquisition of the two companies
Environmest and the Tiwi Island Plantations as they issued more shares resulting in the dilution of the share registry. It is a short-term pain for a long term gain. they have approximatlety 309Million shares and with the new TREES3 (which can be converted in the future) some analysts would include these shares in the diluted EPS so i think it is 367million diluted shares....therefore my forecast EPS would be basic EPS 173/309 = 56cents ad diluted would be EPS = 173/367 = 47cents per share.
As a worst case scenario I have calculated the following sales figures based on minimum sales forecast figures -
1. Plantations - $315 million..capped to same figure last year.
2. Vineyards - $34Million
3. Olives - $45Million
4. Cattle - $40 Million
Total sales = $434 million and still greater than $400 million.
GO GTP
I have been chatting with investor mates of mine and collectively we have come up with the following REVISED sales figures for GTP (forecast guesstimates at best ......could end up being a mile off)..........but there are several mates of mine that chat with the managers of GTP now and then and these estimates are based on what they say now and then..............
1. Timber plantations - It has been said that the product is selling very well however due to the increase in capex for the land they really want to see CONTROLLED growth in this product and increase the income products to 70% 30% ratio this year....therefore i would only expect a modest increase in sales for this product.....i wouldn't be suprised if they announce to the market well before the JUNE 30 cut off that they have capped the sales for this product....therefore say $108 million first half and + $217M = $325M (They actually prefer this type of growth)
2. Vineyards - Based on a 500 Ha projection = approx $38 Million they are expecting more from the cattle product to offset the viticulture product. The minimum is 300 Hectares. For obvious reasons I think that they are only selling the vineyards that have contracts with them.. expect modest growth here.
3. Olives - based on 740 hectares = $ 59 Million could go as high as 64Million based on 800 Ha selling well.
4. Cattle - $40-50 million may also go as high as $60 million.
This gives us a total sales figure of $325 Plantations and $145 million other than plantations = $470 million ...... which is more than the estimate of Macquaries Report which had stated $400M.
Note also that the proportion of the "other than plantation" is now 30% similar to what they forecast at the AGM of up to 30%.
Now the recoginsed revenue for the year will be as follows:-
1. plantation (recognised say 48%) = 325 x .48 =156
2. vineyards - (recognised = 90% a figure i got from GTP) = 38 x .9 =34
3. olives ( recognised = 70% same as above) = 59 x .7 = 41.3
4. cattle (85%) = 50x .85 = 42.5
5. deferred revenue of $150 m
therefore we have the following project revenues:
156+34+41.3+42.5+150 = $424Million add the other revenue (interest, finance and fees)as per last year say another $25 million and this gives us Project Revenue of $451Million (41% increase on last years figure) Subtract the top up of earlier projects say $2.3Million == total project revenues of $446million
profit = .389 (similar margin to last year) x 446= $173 million (up 40%)
Their EPS was affected last year due to the acquisition of the two companies
Environmest and the Tiwi Island Plantations as they issued more shares resulting in the dilution of the share registry. It is a short-term pain for a long term gain. they have approximatlety 309Million shares and with the new TREES3 (which can be converted in the future) some analysts would include these shares in the diluted EPS so i think it is 367million diluted shares....therefore my forecast EPS would be basic EPS 173/309 = 56cents ad diluted would be EPS = 173/367 = 47cents per share.
As a worst case scenario I have calculated the following sales figures based on minimum sales forecast figures -
1. Plantations - $315 million..capped to same figure last year.
2. Vineyards - $34Million
3. Olives - $45Million
4. Cattle - $40 Million
Total sales = $434 million and still greater than $400 million.
GO GTP
michael_selway
Coal & Phosphate, thats it!
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savtin said:
Thansk mate, here soem good news that may have be the reason behind recent days rally
Date: 31/5/2006
Author: James Dunn
Source: The Australian --- Page: 8-9
The agricultural managed investment scheme companies listed on the Australian sharemarket are worthy of consideration. These include Great Southern Plantations, Gunns, Timbercorp, Willmott Forests, Forest Enterprises Australia, and Futuris subsidiary Integrated Tree Cropping. Shaw Stockbroking research manager, Brent Mitchell, is of the opinion that the sector remains undervalued. Mitchell said managed investment scheme stocks remain discounted on the grounds earnings could be subject to tax changes, but noted there will be no change to the tax treatment of the investments until at least 2008
Savtin,
do any of your investor friends have a comment regarding any proposed plans for the dual use of land for cattle and timber investments ?
Interesting info in the link below including the info that in what they call the more 'mature' markets of the US and the EU somewhere between 5 and 7 percent of funds under management is in the agribusiness sector whereas in Australia it is currently less than 1 percent.
http://finance.news.com.au/story/0,10166,19316488-14302,00.html
do any of your investor friends have a comment regarding any proposed plans for the dual use of land for cattle and timber investments ?
Interesting info in the link below including the info that in what they call the more 'mature' markets of the US and the EU somewhere between 5 and 7 percent of funds under management is in the agribusiness sector whereas in Australia it is currently less than 1 percent.
http://finance.news.com.au/story/0,10166,19316488-14302,00.html
Hi Abucs and Analysis,
Did you see the latest ASX announcement regarding the shift of end of year financial reporting for GTP to 30th Sept 2006 from june 30, 2006.
This is good news as it will shift the end of year 3 months and give them a higher percentage of revenue recognition. It will finally explain to the market that their business model is chANGING ( similar to TIM) where they will have more annuity style revenue from their non-forestry products.... and have revenue spread more evenly throughout the year rather being reliant on MIS sales at the end of the year.
My take is about time...remember this company is attempting to explain to the market the direction they are heading and hence have the market re-rate their P/E rating....
Just look at TIM it has a p/e of 16.45 and we (GTP) has a p/e half that, with approx. double the profit (earnings) capacity. Don't get me wrong i think TIM is a great business have some stock in them too. Bought them when they were 70 cents. ...but it is about time this company was re-rated positively by the market.
Did you see the latest ASX announcement regarding the shift of end of year financial reporting for GTP to 30th Sept 2006 from june 30, 2006.
This is good news as it will shift the end of year 3 months and give them a higher percentage of revenue recognition. It will finally explain to the market that their business model is chANGING ( similar to TIM) where they will have more annuity style revenue from their non-forestry products.... and have revenue spread more evenly throughout the year rather being reliant on MIS sales at the end of the year.
My take is about time...remember this company is attempting to explain to the market the direction they are heading and hence have the market re-rate their P/E rating....
Just look at TIM it has a p/e of 16.45 and we (GTP) has a p/e half that, with approx. double the profit (earnings) capacity. Don't get me wrong i think TIM is a great business have some stock in them too. Bought them when they were 70 cents. ...but it is about time this company was re-rated positively by the market.
Yeah, it seems to have Institutional support up to $4 and then it stops.
Lately it has been falling on very small volumes, but the buying has drieds up for the moment.
I'm glad you're happy with the change Savtin. I'm only guessing but it would seem to take a bit of pressure off the worries about sales up to 30th June and hopefully stop the yo-yo effect on the shareprice. I hope you are right about the income products.
With the change in accounting periods and the smaller recognition of sales to the current period, there was always going to be a one off year where sales would 'appear' to be less than it otherwise would. With the AGM reports pushed back up to 3 months this 'one off' will be dealt with much more transparently and not cause any great panic on the shareprice as we will have a smaller figure for the usual 12 month period but then a large one reported for the Jul - Sep period allowing meaningful comparisons with last year.
Lately it has been falling on very small volumes, but the buying has drieds up for the moment.
I'm glad you're happy with the change Savtin. I'm only guessing but it would seem to take a bit of pressure off the worries about sales up to 30th June and hopefully stop the yo-yo effect on the shareprice. I hope you are right about the income products.
With the change in accounting periods and the smaller recognition of sales to the current period, there was always going to be a one off year where sales would 'appear' to be less than it otherwise would. With the AGM reports pushed back up to 3 months this 'one off' will be dealt with much more transparently and not cause any great panic on the shareprice as we will have a smaller figure for the usual 12 month period but then a large one reported for the Jul - Sep period allowing meaningful comparisons with last year.
michael_selway
Coal & Phosphate, thats it!
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abucs said:
thats what i thought, this recent ASX correction may have impacted on their sales as people will have less gains or even losses, thus no need to buy MIS schemes etc
thx
MS
Abucs,
The following is the last few trades......can we tell if the last was a buy or sell......i mean i know that for every buyer there is a seller but due to the lower price taken does that mean it was someone wanting in or out???
Price Volume Value Conditions Attributes BuyXRef SellXRef
3.8176 478009 1824847.15 SP O
3.85 4589 17667.65 F
3.85 1970 7584.5 F
3.85 8672 33387.2 F
cheers
savtin
The following is the last few trades......can we tell if the last was a buy or sell......i mean i know that for every buyer there is a seller but due to the lower price taken does that mean it was someone wanting in or out???
Price Volume Value Conditions Attributes BuyXRef SellXRef
3.8176 478009 1824847.15 SP O
3.85 4589 17667.65 F
3.85 1970 7584.5 F
3.85 8672 33387.2 F
cheers
savtin
Hi Savtin, Michael, Analyst etc.
I don't know about these things Savtin.
Because of the large volume after normal trading i would guess it was all set up beforehand.
Perhaps it was a weighted average for the trading day or week or month etc or perhaps a small discount to such a scenario?
Seeing the price up today seems to suggest that it was not a negative occurrance.
Just me guessing though.
Hope to get good news today or tomorrow with the income prduct sales.
I don't know about these things Savtin.
Because of the large volume after normal trading i would guess it was all set up beforehand.
Perhaps it was a weighted average for the trading day or week or month etc or perhaps a small discount to such a scenario?
Seeing the price up today seems to suggest that it was not a negative occurrance.
Just me guessing though.
Hope to get good news today or tomorrow with the income prduct sales.
Hi all GTP holders,
speaking to a friend of mine, he has heard throught the big grapevine that the cattle projects have sold out at capacity (don't know exactly what that is but it was about 11000 droves i think), olives did well and wine did it tough, but i think met the minimum of 300 Ha (= 6000 lots). if he is right then we could at least get the following:-
cattle - say capacity $55 million
olives (more than minimum) say $40 million
wine (say at minimum) = 24 M
total non-forestry of $119million ( up 138 % on last year)
if this is correct that would be a great result. to achieve $400 million they would only need another $281 million in plantation sales and i think they'll achieve that.
anyway fingers crossed the market receives the sales well.................otherwise down she'll go.
if the volume and the price action of the last couple of days is a hint then it could be all right.
regards
savtin
p.s what do others think?
p.s.s i would be very interested in what others were EXPECTING for the sales of non-forestry products.....
p.s.s me personally in todays bearish markets i would be very happy with anything over $100 million - which would equate to 100 % growth on last year.
speaking to a friend of mine, he has heard throught the big grapevine that the cattle projects have sold out at capacity (don't know exactly what that is but it was about 11000 droves i think), olives did well and wine did it tough, but i think met the minimum of 300 Ha (= 6000 lots). if he is right then we could at least get the following:-
cattle - say capacity $55 million
olives (more than minimum) say $40 million
wine (say at minimum) = 24 M
total non-forestry of $119million ( up 138 % on last year)
if this is correct that would be a great result. to achieve $400 million they would only need another $281 million in plantation sales and i think they'll achieve that.
anyway fingers crossed the market receives the sales well.................otherwise down she'll go.
if the volume and the price action of the last couple of days is a hint then it could be all right.
regards
savtin
p.s what do others think?
p.s.s i would be very interested in what others were EXPECTING for the sales of non-forestry products.....
p.s.s me personally in todays bearish markets i would be very happy with anything over $100 million - which would equate to 100 % growth on last year.
I thought the vines product would not go so great with the present industry climate but am pleased to hear the news with the cattle.
If it is $55 million then apart from the captital injection, it comes out to be a good income stream for the next 7 years. The cumulative effect of 5 or 6 years of sales for this will be colossal. This together with the vines, olives and land rotation should underpin at least a tripling of the dividends within 5 years.
I think the timber sales will be another record year from other companies reports from the same industry.
If it is $55 million then apart from the captital injection, it comes out to be a good income stream for the next 7 years. The cumulative effect of 5 or 6 years of sales for this will be colossal. This together with the vines, olives and land rotation should underpin at least a tripling of the dividends within 5 years.
I think the timber sales will be another record year from other companies reports from the same industry.
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we may find tha gtp board is onto buying wheat and other cereals lands that can be used for ethanol or if oil drops in price wheat sales and also involved possibly in ethanol plant construction as well through MIS's.
michael_selway
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savtin said:
Hi Satvin, whats your forecasts now for 30/06/06, new annoucement out
Thx
MS
http://www.corporatefile.com.au/documents/OB/MD on Sales and Outlook 16.06.06 .pdf
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Hi Satvin
Why are you upset for and giving up on the stock??
The latest announcement was really good as it has confirmed that management is diversifying and ready and focusing on consistent earnings and growth and an increase in dividend as well...this is really fantastic as it aint a one or two stock wonder say like sen and some of those singular resource stocks this is a real company with real fundamentals so just be patient and wait for the per revaluation.
Why are you upset for and giving up on the stock??
The latest announcement was really good as it has confirmed that management is diversifying and ready and focusing on consistent earnings and growth and an increase in dividend as well...this is really fantastic as it aint a one or two stock wonder say like sen and some of those singular resource stocks this is a real company with real fundamentals so just be patient and wait for the per revaluation.
It didn't look like the market liked it.......it was the statements about lower profit margins and lower profitibilty that spooked alot of people...........
I read the announcement and thought it was very good ..........to be honest if they had realesed the sales figures as per previous years.....i.e sales increase by 180% and left it at that the SP would now be at $4.34 instead of $3.62..............................
Speaking from a purely technical manner, if the $3.50 support does not hold I think this stock will head back to $3.20...............i don't see this happening but i will be looking closely.
if support holds an upward rally will ensure...
i wonder who was doing all the selling today...
I read the announcement and thought it was very good ..........to be honest if they had realesed the sales figures as per previous years.....i.e sales increase by 180% and left it at that the SP would now be at $4.34 instead of $3.62..............................
Speaking from a purely technical manner, if the $3.50 support does not hold I think this stock will head back to $3.20...............i don't see this happening but i will be looking closely.
if support holds an upward rally will ensure...
i wonder who was doing all the selling today...
Julia
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savtin said:I personally have given up on this stock ......................so upset.
Didn't think I'd ever hear you say this, Savtin!
Certainly was an ugly drop today.
Julia
