GTP - Great Southern Plantations

[savtin]

Michael,
I don't think TIM own the land like GTP ...they only lease it.

 

[michael_selway]

Michael,
I don't think TIM own the land like GTP ...they only lease it.

Oh ok thx

Btw why did they lower forecasts recently on comsec?

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2005 2006 2007 2008
EPS 41.7 43.1 51.3 55.9
DPS 14.0 14.0 19.0 18.0

Before it was

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2005 2006 2007 2008
EPS 41.7 45.6 57.5 62.7
DPS 14.0 16.5 21.5 23.5

Thx

MS

 

[Nicks]

GTP - a great stock, the results speak for themselves, and good value at the moment.

 

[Julia]

GTP - a great stock, the results speak for themselves, and good value at the moment.

Nicks:

Great avatar: who is it?

Julia

 

[michael_selway]

Nicks:

Great avatar: who is it?

Julia

Hi Julia, u still hodl GTP right?

what price u thinkign of letting go of some?

also EXL, did u let go all of them already?

thx

MS

 

[Julia]

Hi Julia, u still hodl GTP right?

what price u thinkign of letting go of some?

also EXL, did u let go all of them already?

thx

MS

Hi Michael,

Can't be too defiinite at this stage, but will sell 5000 at $4.00, possibly 10,000, depending on the situation at the time. Then, if it goes to close to $5.00 at the peak at end of financial year, another 5,000 and hold the balance.

Re Excel: exited this one a few weeks back when coal prices were looking doubtful. It has since recovered somewhat, but I'm not comfortable enough with the fundamentals on coal at present to go back in. Probably prefer to increase my position in BHP for its greater diversification.

Julia

 

[michael_selway]

Hi Michael,

Can't be too defiinite at this stage, but will sell 5000 at $4.00, possibly 10,000, depending on the situation at the time. Then, if it goes to close to $5.00 at the peak at end of financial year, another 5,000 and hold the balance.

Re Excel: exited this one a few weeks back when coal prices were looking doubtful. It has since recovered somewhat, but I'm not comfortable enough with the fundamentals on coal at present to go back in. Probably prefer to increase my position in BHP for its greater diversification.

Julia

Hi Julia

yeah GTP wait and see what their annoucements have to offer. Seems theres some upside this year. If price is good, then sell some so u dont become overwieght etc. Also did u get the TREES3 offer last year?

EXL/BHP actually, not that long ago I had your view as well, however Thermal Coal prices are on the up again recently froma low in Nov 05. BHP even diversified now i think might be a bit risky because Base Metals have suffered 2 big corrections this week. Also based on LME supplies, Zinc is the only base metal thats fundamentally still strong. Even Gold and SIlver have taken a hit. Coal only the other hand is still seen an important resource for energy such as electricity. Plus, EXL has recently been awared some long term contracts.

http://www.eurekareport.com.au/iis/iis.nsf/ak/ZQUqMF?opendocument&code=DhupfU

PORTFOLIO POINT: The price of gold is rising dramatically, but the underlying fundamentals of this commodity are unreliable. As a tangible alternative asset gold may attract some investors, but it remains a highly speculative investment.

http://www.globalcoal.com

NEWC Index (weekly)

13-Jan-06 42.97
20-Jan-06 44.51
27-Jan-06 46.18
03-Feb-06 47.87
10-Feb-06 50.02

NEWC Index (monthly)

Oct-05 40.89
Nov-05 37.32
Dec-05 39.16
Jan-06 43.73

Spot prices (USD/tonne) for coal to be delivered in the 3 calendar months following publication date.

 

[Nicks]

Hey Julia.

Its me in the pic. Al Pacino. Nick is my middle name.

Oh and why did I buy GTP (and lots of it) - after driving through some of their country a couple of months back on a trip I saw real capital. Guess when you see it with your own eyes and how impressive it is you learn to appreciate companies that have real capital, real income and real profits.
They have the assets to deliver the dividends and the PE does not reflect this. Good for us who have it and want to buy it.

 

[Nicks]

oh and to reinforce, look at ANEs share price movement the last couplde of weeks.

 

[michael_selway]

oh and to reinforce, look at ANEs share price movement the last couplde of weeks.

Is ANE more similar to GTP or TIM or neither?

thx

MS

 

[Nicks]

GTP

 

[abucs]

Does anybody have ideas why ANE with more debt is almost twice the PE of Great Southern ?????

 

[Nicks]

People havent yet caught on to the real value of GTP. ANE is also value but this is already reflected in the PE.
What does this mean? good value for those of us buying GTP now. As value is realised PE will correct and share price will reflect value more appropriately.
If I had more money to spend id be buying more of this and AVO right now.

 

[michael_selway]

People havent yet caught on to the real value of GTP. ANE is also value but this is already reflected in the PE.
What does this mean? good value for those of us buying GTP now. As value is realised PE will correct and share price will reflect value more appropriately.
If I had more money to spend id be buying more of this and AVO right now.

Anoucement today

Does anyone know what this means?

The contract is on a Free on Board (FOB) basis, which is expected to result in higher returns to Great Southern’s investors.

higher returns to shreholders? how much in EPS?

thx

MS

----------------------------------------

COMPANY ANNOUNCEMENT / MEDIA RELEASE
Monday 20 February 2006

Great Southern Plantations signs major woodchip sale contract

Agribusiness investment manager Great Southern Plantations (ASX code: GTP) has signed a contract with a leading Japanese company for the sale of hardwood woodchips, to be exported from the Port of Albany in Western Australia.

The buyer is major trading company Itochu Australia Ltd, with the ultimate user being one of the largest paper manufacturers in the world. The contract, which will run from 2007, will result in the export of approximately 1.5 million tonnes of woodchip, worth more than $130 million in today’s
terms.

“Great Southern is delighted to have secured this contract, which is the culmination of a long-term relationship with Itochu,” said Great Southern’s Managing Director, John Young. “It effectively means that all the resource from our first six projects in the Albany region has been contracted.”

The contract is on a Free on Board (FOB) basis, which is expected to result in higher returns to Great Southern’s investors. Great Southern now has in excess of 40,000 hectares of hardwood plantations under management in the Albany region, which is just a part of the company’s national plantation estate of more than 110,000 hectares.

Great Southern’s exports commenced in February 2005, and to date the company has shipped, pursuant to a separate contractual arrangement with Sojitz Corporation, more than 187,000 tonnes of woodchip through the Port of Albany.

“With this latest contract, we are now poised to grow the export side of our business, generating significant benefits to the region including employment opportunities,â Mr Young said.

 

[savtin1]

The higher result will benefit the "grower investors" not the "shareholder investors" as per se. i.e. they will get a better return on their invested capital. The individuals that invest in their timber plantation products.

 

[Nicks]

The higher result will benefit the "grower investors" not the "shareholder investors" as per se. i.e. they will get a better return on their invested capital. The individuals that invest in their timber plantation products.

Disagree. GTP manages the plantations and will benefit significantly from this contract. Thus benefitting the owners of GTP (us shareholders) along with investors in the particular products.

I hold GTP and it is because I think it is a good stock.


.... just thought id add that if you read the article closely it is apparent how significant this news is, look at each of the points they are making in the article, this is a big windfall. ALthough a small increase in share price today, I think shareprice has not caught up to the effects of this windfall yet let alone the business as a whole.

 

[savtin]

Sorry Nicks....you are right in general (overall) we all as shareholders will benefit...and I am an avid supporter and long term holder of GTP.....I was upset when it reached $3.90 yesterday only to close at $3.73.........

but my response to michael related to the money the growers would make from the deal.....but yes overall EXCELLENT NEWS..

GO GTP.......


p.s Nicks, how long do you think before we are back over $4.00 seems to be vasilating at present.......

results out tuesday next week (i expect them to be good) so hopefully we will see the SP be re-rated shortly.

 

[abucs]

FOB "Free on Board" basis means that Great Southern will arrange for the trees to be made into woodchips before being transported to Japan.
This will mean a greater volume per ship will be transported and woodchipping will not needed to be done in Japan thus the Japanese will pay a higher price for the FOB woodchips meaning a better return for woodlot investors and GTP in general.
I liked the comment by the relevant minister in the latest GTP newsletter when he says it is vital that nothing impedes the investment in plantations and that the tax system should be set to achieve this.
I got the feeling that if there are tax changes the government will look at helping the plantation agribusiness sector so as to not be adversely affected and hopefully give it an extra boost as well.

 

[michael_selway]

FOB "Free on Board" basis means that Great Southern will arrange for the trees to be made into woodchips before being transported to Japan.
This will mean a greater volume per ship will be transported and woodchipping will not needed to be done in Japan thus the Japanese will pay a higher price for the FOB woodchips meaning a better return for woodlot investors and GTP in general.
I liked the comment by the relevant minister in the latest GTP newsletter when he says it is vital that nothing impedes the investment in plantations and that the tax system should be set to achieve this.
I got the feeling that if there are tax changes the government will look at helping the plantation agribusiness sector so as to not be adversely affected and hopefully give it an extra boost as well.

ic thx guys,

btw something about woodchips

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/060221/bush.html?.v=1

"The White House says Bush is providing that leadership. They say he wants to invest more in zero-emission, coal-fired plants, as well as support solar and wind research, promote cars that run on hydrogen, encourage more nuclear power plant construction and fund work to produce ethanol -- not just from corn, but from wood chips and switch grass."

 

[abucs]

"Zero emmission, coal-fired plants" )

It sounds promising though Michael. Had not heard of woodchips producing ethanol before.

The quote from my last entry was from Richard Colbeck, the parliamentary secretary for agriculture, forestry and fisheries.

I think the interesting part was when he said :

"We must ensure there are no impediments to plantation investment and, as part of this, the government is determining whether the current tax regime is providing an appropriate investment environment".