GSL - Greatcell Solar

[basilio]

I'm still waiting to see how much I was able to pick up in the SPP but can't help but count a few of the chickens before they hatch .

My concern with the Tata announcement deadline is the tone used in recent interviews. From previous announcements / research milestones, I would have thought Tata would be close to releasing products to market or at least announcing a roadmap to market. If they do it'll be blue skies for DYE, but if they come out and say they're delaying commercialisation until global construction picks up then it'll be a kick in the guys for DYE and the SP will crash IMO.

I would of thought that if the improvements in efficiency and reliability that DYE is saying are for real then it may pay many business to simply replace large roof areas with energy producing panels. I would imagine that most factories and large commercial sites have relatively simple to replace roofs. Lets see what happens.

 

[pixel]

Where to next?
While I was still waiting, cash at the ready, at the bottom of the gap, DYE buyers had other ideas.
Am I complaining? Not really. Still holding, but very much aware of the "eggs in basket" temptation.
So, IF the flag pattern plays out, we could see 55-56c, which could also tie in with Country Lad's previous p&f resistance.
watching for a break of 48.5c

Done ... and then some

 

[rbgmauq]

Technically, DYE has been showing support around 0.27 and resistance in the 0.545 price range. It is rated a buy at au.stoxline website with the 0.637 target price in six months.

 

[Zedd]

I would of thought that if the improvements in efficiency and reliability that DYE is saying are for real then it may pay many business to simply replace large roof areas with energy producing panels. I would imagine that most factories and large commercial sites have relatively simple to replace roofs. Lets see what happens.

Technically, DYE has been showing support around 0.27 and resistance in the 0.545 price range. It is rated a buy at au.stoxline website with the 0.637 target price in six months.

I've held DYE since 2007 (bought 1st parcel @ $0.96) and have always believed in their business model and technological roadmap. Almost every opinion piece / article / newsletter I've read since 2007 has had a buy recommendation and have listed them as best green tech company on the ASX, blah, blah, blah. The company has picked up more individual and corporate awards, domestic and international, than you can shake a stick at.

Reality is, until one of their partners releases their technology commercially, the stock price is nothing but speculation and has no floor or ceiling. That's why for me the Tata announcement is far bigger than these recent announcements, because if the announcement is anything but a clear path to market then it's all going down. Even if DYE keeps climbing for a few more days, weeks, months, it will eventually turn and fall, whether dramatically or a slow grind down, but it seems very few investors are happy to hold the stock like myself with the belief that they will eventually reach market.

 

[Country Lad]

Technically, DYE has been showing support around 0.27 and resistance in the 0.545 price range. It is rated a buy at au.stoxline website with the 0.637 target price in six months.

You don't believe what stoxline says, surely. There are a few support points between current price and 27 cents, especially 41 and 35. I see resistance as 57 which it reached and fell back from today.

Cheers
Country Lad

 

[Zedd]

Little disappointed at how oversubscribed the SPP was. 17.8% of my requested allocation! But then again, 162% profit is still a win.

Interesting to see that even with additional allocation, and a 12% increase in number of shares that the volume and price didn't change too much today.

Still looks like it's grinding lower ...

 

[gate keeper]

This stock is a bargan at this price.In china right now they are producing solar panels below cost. WHY.
Its like the last company that produced VHS tapes,its gone. To me its a no brainer, out with the old in with the
new, simple. plus dyesol have the Tecknowledgey all to themselves.

 

[Zedd]

This stock is a bargan at this price.In china right now they are producing solar panels below cost. WHY.
Its like the last company that produced VHS tapes,its gone. To me its a no brainer, out with the old in with the
new, simple. plus dyesol have the Tecknowledgey all to themselves.

Define bargin and on what valuation. I have no idea how to evaluate the potential value of the firm outside of cash reserves, given their technology is licensed to manufacturers, who are yet to release to market a product, and due to commercials we (as far as I know) have no way to evaluate what revenue well be provided under these licenses.

BIPV market is potentially huge. Game changing. DYE is recognised as the leader in the technology but there are competitors out there, including alternative technologies. I understand some of their competitors actually have products on the market. First-to-market regularly beats best-in-field products.

http://www.solarserver.com/solar-ma...ic-technologies-on-track-to-breakthrough.html

Add to that Australia's decreasing (and with Abbott, further expected decreases) green R&D incentives, DYE is now relying on foreign grants and investors to fund their continuing research. If their plans (largely dependent on manufacturing partners) go awry, or get delayed, again, they may have to dilute equity further again just to keep the doors open.

Blue-sky company? Potentially. No brainer? Hardly.

PS Welcome to ASF

 

[gate keeper]

Thank You for the link you provided,First of all we dont live on a flat earth.(some people think we do)
second, my car is not flat, bit hard to wrap plastic around my car,the last time i painted my house they didnt
stick it on they painted it on,

even the link you provided says.

so they will likely succeed in markets where their low cost, substrate flexibility, and ability to perform in dim or variable lighting conditions provide them with a significant competitive advantage. DSC will target larger area

If we lived on a flat earth where everything was flat it still would be cheaper and easyer to paint it on rather than
stick in on after.

I rest my case.

 

[Gringotts Bank]

Running very hard, as it does. I felt like 53c would be the top in the short term.

I can now see this going to 56c. Think I sold too early.

 

[pixel]

Running very hard, as it does. I felt like 53c would be the top in the short term.

I can now see this going to 56c. Think I sold too early.

I'm not sure you did; resistance need not consider the exact top of a single day's upper wick. 49-50c seems to me a reasonable resistance zone, and I can easily see it drop back by around 10-15c.

 

[Gringotts Bank]

I'm not sure you did; resistance need not consider the exact top of a single day's upper wick. 49-50c seems to me a reasonable resistance zone, and I can easily see it drop back by around 10-15c.

Both happened! - the drop back and the 56c. I wanted to re-enter at 46, but the volatility made me a bit nervous.

 

[richardgeary]

Both happened! - the drop back and the 56c. I wanted to re-enter at 46, but the volatility made me a bit nervous.

I wonder if these guys have what it takes to get their product rolling ? or is it just going to die ? We haven't really heard much about their progress and it seems like they are still in the design stage when you read their reports.

 

[pixel]

Both happened! - the drop back and the 56c. I wanted to re-enter at 46, but the volatility made me a bit nervous.

So it did get to 56 after all; but look at the volume (or lack of it) compared to the start of the rally!
In the chart below, I have added an even shallower support trendline; that has now also been broken, increasing the chances of one of the lower Fibonacci levels coming into play.



Too much uncertainty for my liking, so I stayed off and have now set an alert for break of 40c, where I'll take another look: maybe support will show somewhere ? (If not, I haven't lost anything.)

 

[Gringotts Bank]

Yep, I'm thinking the same way, have a look below 40c.

 

[pixel]

Yep, I'm thinking the same way, have a look below 40c.

This morning's announcement, correcting media speculation, gave the perfect entry. (not that I deny luck played a part in my 28.5c bid getting filled...)

... and then it was game on.

 

[basilio]

What is happening with DYE ?

We got a run up to 44c a couple of days ago in anticipation of the joint venture with Tasnee. Deal comes off and as far as I can see from the company presentation there is a very promising future with a cost effective , strong solar technology.

Meanwhile the shares are getting dumped! Currently 33c . I can understand Pixels comment regarding selling the fact but a 25% drop seems surreal ?

Isn't it ?

 

[pixel]

What is happening with DYE ?

We got a run up to 44c a couple of days ago in anticipation of the joint venture with Tasnee. Deal comes off and as far as I can see from the company presentation there is a very promising future with a cost effective , strong solar technology.

Meanwhile the shares are getting dumped! Currently 33c . I can understand Pixels comment regarding selling the fact but a 25% drop seems surreal ?

Isn't it ?

It does seem harsh, but consider the low-low price Tasnee are paying for their substantial stake: 18c is to most of us ancient history. I wouldn't be surprised if the sell-off went even further next week.

 

[skc]

We got a run up to 44c a couple of days ago in anticipation of the joint venture with Tasnee. Deal comes off and as far as I can see from the company presentation there is a very promising future with a cost effective , strong solar technology.

Also, the news of the Tasnee investment was first announced in 16 Sept when share price was 40c... from then on the price went south, probably on fear of dilution from such a deal. On 24 Oct, the price is down to 29c when the company denied about uninformed media comments (I have no ideas what comments they are referring to) and that prompted a choppy 50% run to 45c up until 2 days ago. Then the deal was revealed and it's $16m, but done at 18c. That's a large chunk of the company given away. Sure there's strategic value in a big partner and there's $16m in additional capital. But investors are right to wonder why the deal is done at such a different level to recent market prices. Perhaps the shares were sold too cheaply, or perhaps the market price is too hgih. Either way, it's not awesome.

So in sum... the 45c high was printed by overly excited marginal buyer and should not be regarded as an indication of what the company is really worth.

And just to look back a bit more...DYE's revenue (excluding interest)

FY13 $0.96m
FY12 $1.84m
FY11 $1.41m
FY10 $3.04m
FY09 $2.52m
FY08 $1.94m
FY07 $1.74m

Read a presentation from FY07 and you get the same rosy outlook... This promising future is taking a long time to come to fruition! Not saying it won't, but it's taking its sweet time.

 

[Impala]

Hard one to read. Have been in it since the company's establishment. Sold out at $1.80, 9x original investment. Have bought smaller quantities subsequently with mixed results. Sold 60% of holding recently at 45c because of uncertainties about future commercial success of technology. I think Caldwell is astute, but don't personally take to his style. Shame that Sylvia Tulloch isn't still more closely involved, seriously smart nanotechnologist. But the Tullochs seemed to have burned their bridges with the company - though still big shareholders.

Not in a position to assess the value of Tasnee as a partner. Their entry pricing suggests they must have a lot of in-kind value to offer. Dyesol has some excellent technology partners globally, but I think these big co's have multiple PV options if Dyesol doesn't come off. The real problem seems to be getting the energy efficiency ratio up to a commercially realistic level. Over the years they have achieved marginal improvements, but nowhere near the level a director predicted to me early on in the company's evolution. I guess there are other technological problems too, including scaling up. The market cap (MUCH more important than the share price) is still very low relative to leading offshore PV and substitute technology companies.

So - they should eventually make it, but never under-estimate competitive reaction and substitute technologies. These players are not sitting on their hands.

Musings for the day.

Also, the news of the Tasnee investment was first announced in 16 Sept when share price was 40c... from then on the price went south, probably on fear of dilution from such a deal. On 24 Oct, the price is down to 29c when the company denied about uninformed media comments (I have no ideas what comments they are referring to) and that prompted a choppy 50% run to 45c up until 2 days ago. Then the deal was revealed and it's $16m, but done at 18c. That's a large chunk of the company given away. Sure there's strategic value in a big partner and there's $16m in additional capital. But investors are right to wonder why the deal is done at such a different level to recent market prices. Perhaps the shares were sold too cheaply, or perhaps the market price is too hgih. Either way, it's not awesome.

So in sum... the 45c high was printed by overly excited marginal buyer and should not be regarded as an indication of what the company is really worth.

And just to look back a bit more...DYE's revenue (excluding interest)

FY13 $0.96m
FY12 $1.84m
FY11 $1.41m
FY10 $3.04m
FY09 $2.52m
FY08 $1.94m
FY07 $1.74m

Read a presentation from FY07 and you get the same rosy outlook... This promising future is taking a long time to come to fruition! Not saying it won't, but it's taking its sweet time.