GOR - Gold Road Resources

[fergee]

I have been following this company since it was called Elektra mining. Great management and great resource. Its currently looking like breaking out of its correction right now and starting the next leg up. Looking forward to seeing some more drill results this year and the ramp up to full production.

 

[Padowan]

I’ve picked GOR in the January 2020 and full CY2020 tipping competitions on the back of a rising tide in the Aussie gold sector and hopefully the company has reached the inflection point on the ramp up of the new gruyere gold mine whilst near mine and regional exploration potential provides the icing on the cake.
The stock has traded up from 1.08 on the 23rd Dec to 1.34 at market close today, having been just over 1.60 in mid August 2019

 

[qldfrog]

yeap one of my buy for the year too: looking for 2020

 

[fergee]

I’ve picked GOR in the January 2020 and full CY2020 tipping competitions on the back of a rising tide in the Aussie gold sector and hopefully the company has reached the inflection point on the ramp up of the new gruyere gold mine whilst near mine and regional exploration potential provides the icing on the cake.
The stock has traded up from 1.08 on the 23rd Dec to 1.34 at market close today, having been just over 1.60 in mid August 2019

2020 GOR SQUAD
Im really looking forward to this years drilling results.
I often feel this stock is a little misunderstood(maybe it's just me), it is primarily an explorer who farms out its finds and takes a cut of the action. It's a really good business model, they stick at what they are good at which is finding reserves and let mining companies do what they do best getting the gold out of the ground and processed. It's almost a hybrid between an explorer and a royalty holding company now. I wonder when the dividends will start to roll out?

 

[fergee]

From GOR December Quarterly Report

HIGHLIGHTS

Production and Guidance


 Gruyere produced 70,023 ounces during the quarter and 99,130 ounces for 2019 at the top end of guidance (75,000 to 100,000 ounces – 100% basis)
 Gold Road met cost guidance for the December 2019 quarter with AISC of A$1,102 per attributable ounce
 Gruyere ramp-up continues to progress well, with focus turning to further improving plant availability, maintenance and wear patterns
 2020 Mine Plan and guidance anticipated in the March 2020
December Quarterly Report

• Financial and Corporate
  

 As at 31 December 2019:

•  Gold Road had cash of A$101.3 million
  
  
•  Gold Road had net cash of A$20.9 million

•  In January 2020, the better than expected cash generation from Gruyere enabled Gold Road to make a considerable debt repayment of A$38 million reducing the Company’s overall debt position from A$80.4 million at the end of the December 2019 quarter to A$42.4 million.
  
  
•  Gold Road sold 37,104 ounces of its share of gold from Gruyere at an average price of A$2,033 per ounce during the quarter
  
  
•  Final Capital Cost for Gruyere’s construction confirmed at A$610 million (100% basis), below budget of A$621 million
  
  Discovery
  

•  Extensional diamond and RC drilling was completed at Gruyere during the quarter with a Mineral Resource update expected in the March 2020 quarter
  
  
•  Mineral Resources at Gilmour and Renegade (100% owned) declared totalling 3.5 million tonnes at 2.62 g/t Au for 297,600 ounces
  

 

[qldfrog]

Just got out this morning in my move to conservative assets but a great gold play.i might be back

 

[frugal.rock]

Without getting into the nitty gritty, the FA would have the SP somewhere around $2.50 when comparing with Dacian a year ago or so. Main difference is GOR isn't paying a dividend, as Dacian was back then.
If GOR pays down it's debt by end of FY, happy days. They might decide to pay a divvy? Am sure the SP would rise to the occasion.
As long as gold stays bullish...
F.Rock

 

[fergee]

Current Hedging Position

Gold Road delivered 13,600 ounces into its hedge book at an average price of A$1,780 per ounce during the quarter. Gold Road’s gold forward sales contracts as at 31 December 2019 are summarised in the table below.

 

[Padowan]

Without getting into the nitty gritty, the FA would have the SP somewhere around $2.50 when comparing with Dacian a year ago or so. Main difference is GOR isn't paying a dividend, as Dacian was back then.
If GOR pays down it's debt by end of FY, happy days. They might decide to pay a divvy? Am sure the SP would rise to the occasion.
As long as gold stays bullish...
F.Rock

@frugal.rock I believe that the market incorrectly discounts GOR because it is the non managing joint venture partner at gruyere although it’s a better way for a junior to manage the risk of building and starting a new remote mine IMHO and will ultimately pay in efficient capital growth.

with corona virus, trump, brexit, trouble in the Middle East I’m personally bullish Aussie gold juniors

 

[fergee]

@frugal.rock I believe that the market incorrectly discounts GOR because it is the non managing joint venture partner at gruyere although it’s a better way for a junior to manage the risk of building and starting a new remote mine IMHO and will ultimately pay in efficient capital growth.

100% agree with that @Padowan its a Great model! Be interesting to see if they can scale it up and get some more JVs/revenue streams online in the future.

@frugal.rock I do remember GOR talking about wanting to pay dividends in a report at some stage but cant for the life of me find where right now.

 

[fergee]

GOR up ~9% today on above average volume. Not far off all time highs at $1.645 now.
Couldn't find any news to justify the volume and price spike, possibly insto's buying in again?

 

[frugal.rock]

GOR up ~9% today on above average volume. Not far off all time highs at $1.645 now.
Couldn't find any news to justify the volume and price spike, possibly insto's buying in again?

The market was down today across the board with gold and real estate the only + indices today.
Gold up 1.7%., RE 0.4%.
Have noticed recently the money coming and going out of gold.
I've got multiple animal behaviour ideas about the way stocks and or the market trade.... and gold is behaving like a rabbit.
The warren is gold, the safety hold, the rabbit (traders, insto's etc) have a look around out of the hole and get out and have a feed on other sectors, always ready to run back to the hold at the drop of a Akubra.
My
F.Rock

 

[Joules MM1]

GOR up ~9% today on above average volume. Not far off all time highs at $1.645 now.
Couldn't find any news to justify the volume and price spike, possibly insto's buying in again?

when price is being chased the internal momentum is something that takes time to recognise, it's the strength that allows coin to be pocketed into strength

keep in mind that someone is selling all that buying
it is useful to look at the auction on at/on regular intervals:
the question is did most of the buying occur at the offer or did most of the buying occur at the bid
is it the action of a double top, a sell zone, best value to exit zone?

the price structure looks very bullish, but, that's the twist with goldies they get that to-the-moon-thru-the-moon-onto-mars look about them .....and then volume is lifting, the chase is on, the smart money sells into the weak late comers and suddenly its the nevada desert with tall stacks of useless bids
august 2010 may 2011 is a mini fractal of the current move, at best don't be precious when the price is suddenly zooming

in US$ the commitment of traders report shows commercial traders at extreme historic sell-to-open positions, meanwhile retail and money managers are at extreme buy-to-open......

then again my buyer beware rant might be an everywhere a rant rant

 

[fergee]

The market was down today across the board with gold and real estate the only + indices today.
Gold up 1.7%., RE 0.4%.
Have noticed recently the money coming and going out of gold.
I've got multiple animal behaviour ideas about the way stocks and or the market trade.... and gold is behaving like a rabbit.
The warren is gold, the safety hold, the rabbit (traders, insto's etc) have a look around out of the hole and get out and have a feed on other sectors, always ready to run back to the hold at the drop of a Akubra.
My
F.Rock

Hey @frugal.rock I enjoyed that little parable about rabbits want to open up a separate thread about it?
Could be a bit of a laugh and be a place discuss market phycology

 

[fergee]

when price is being chased the internal momentum is something that takes time to recognise, it's the strength that allows coin to be pocketed into strength

keep in mind that someone is selling all that buying
it is useful to look at the auction on at/on regular intervals:
the question is did most of the buying occur at the offer or did most of the buying occur at the bid
is it the action of a double top, a sell zone, best value to exit zone?

the price structure looks very bullish, but, that's the twist with goldies they get that to-the-moon-thru-the-moon-onto-mars look about them .....and then volume is lifting, the chase is on, the smart money sells into the weak late comers and suddenly its the nevada desert with tall stacks of useless bids
august 2010 may 2011 is a mini fractal of the current move, at best don't be precious when the price is suddenly zooming

in US$ the commitment of traders report shows commercial traders at extreme historic sell-to-open positions, meanwhile retail and money managers are at extreme buy-to-open......

then again my buyer beware rant might be an everywhere a rant rant

Wise words @Joules MM1

You are right, when you think it can go in only one direction it does the opposite. Hence it does pay to be a touch sceptical which helps keep your feet on the ground while avoiding the madness of the crowd. Also knowing when to be contrarian and take advantage of all the cattle once they are all herded together and looking like tomorrow nights filet mignon. In saying that though there are times to ride with the herd or be run over by it and I think right know I know which direction I would rather be riding with GOR.

 

[frugal.rock]

Half the list is green.
Half even except for 3 red around 8%
Wondering why I don't hold any of these stocks... I have clearly neglected to check this watchlist for a while.
F.Rock

 

[fergee]

GOR made all time highs today, $2 looking probable this year sometime imo.

It looks like GOR and SLR are in a little race and SLR seems to be the slightly faster runner. Any one got an opinion on SLR>GOR or SLR<GOR?

 

[Clansman]

GOR made all time highs today, $2 looking probable this year sometime imo.

It looks like GOR and SLR are in a little race and SLR seems to be the slightly faster runner. Any one got an opinion on SLR>GOR or SLR<GOR?

Intrigued to know how GOR could have reached an all time high today when it was nearly $4 back in 2016??????????????

 

[Clansman]

Intrigued to know how GOR could have reached an all time high today when it was nearly $4 back in 2016??????????????

My error. Incorrect stock. It's going great guns.

 

[frugal.rock]

Comparing GOR to SLR... not quite apples to apples...
GOR
Up and coming gold play.
Good prospects.
Trading volume increasing.
SP breaking new ground, likely to bring volatility.
Some large volume trading days in the last 12 months, around 100 million vol.
Fairly low AISC.

SLR
Gold and copper play.
Actively trading last 6 months.
Currently SP around half of it's 2012/13 highs.
Longer in the tooth than GOR

In the current market, who knows?
Both look like nice apples of different varieties which the market seems to like.

F.Rock