Gold Stocks Information and Comparison

[kbxk508]

Datasource GoldNerds????

Hi Uncle Festivus,

You're right, but not the author, I did mention it in one of my earlier posts (I think).

I like playing with the data, charting and analysing it and with some that interest me I do a thorough check and have my own inputs etc. They're pretty spot on most of the time.

PS: I'm a newbie, so just finding my way round, cheers!

kbxk508

 

[kbxk508]

kbxk508, just curious, are you putting these charts together, or just cut and pasting them from somewhere else?

Or, are you telling us that you are the author?

Hi kennas,

The analysis and data is mostly Goldnerds, but the charts I create on excel - I create it and then copy and paste it onto MS Word before uploading, cheers.

kbxk508

 

[Uncle Festivus]

Just wondering if the cyclical bull will reappear this year, gold stocks certainly have taken a battering in the face of a relatively 'stable' gold price? Dare I say it, oversold! LGL in particular has now entered steep discount to it's JORC reserve valuation of approx $5.45 (BGF Equities report). Whether these will be true bargains in as soon as a months time remains to be seen, but I am entering some at these levels now

Chart of XGD All Ords Gold Index - descending wedge looking for a bullish break out?

 

[Nicks]

Hi Uncle Festivus,

You're right, but not the author, I did mention it in one of my earlier posts (I think).

I like playing with the data, charting and analysing it and with some that interest me I do a thorough check and have my own inputs etc. They're pretty spot on most of the time.

PS: I'm a newbie, so just finding my way round, cheers!

kbxk508

Good job taking the effort to re-do the chart with currrent figures.

 

[Sean K]

Hi kennas,

The analysis and data is mostly Goldnerds, but the charts I create on excel - I create it and then copy and paste it onto MS Word before uploading, cheers.

kbxk508

Cheers, I have started adding in EV in my spreedsheet as well. I'm finding it hard to get the asset valuations from the available information though, so I'm just doing MC less cash / $oz au at spot. Is that good enough? kennas

 

[kbxk508]

Cheers, I have started adding in EV in my spreedsheet as well. I'm finding it hard to get the asset valuations from the available information though, so I'm just doing MC less cash / $oz au at spot. Is that good enough? kennas

Hi kennas,

Is that EV = MC - Cash? not sure if you should be dividing spot GOLD.

I'm using EV = MC - Liquid Assets + Total Liabilities.

Liquid Assets: includes cash, investments, inventories, receivables and deferred tax, (should be in their Qtr/Half or Annual Statements).

Total Liabilities (Current + Non Current): Half Year and/or Annual Report.

If liquid assets are mostly cash then I would say YES otherwise it will be very different e.g.

TRY (MC = 133 A$m), at June 30 had cash 14.5 A$m and investments 47.6 A$m - removing the investment component out of the equation would give you a much higher EV than what it is (imo).

PS: On July 18 TRY sold this investment and so are cashed up NOW.

Anyway, I've included some data fyi (as usual DYOR).

kbxk508

 

[kbxk508]

The following chart I put together compares a number of AUS Gold Producers and shows, (i) EV per Ounce (Resource), (ii) Total Cost per Ounce (TCO), (iii) % Reserves as a Percentage of the Resource (% Reserves) and (iv) Net Financial Assets (NFA). Datasource GoldNerds (14/7/08).

The TCO for AQP Aquarius Platinum (near 200 A$/oz), was incorrect :error: on my 22-July chart. A value of approx. 830 A$/oz (re: attach) is more appropriate given their Jun Qtr stats (as usual DYOR).

AQP has 6 mines and is a major producer of Platinum (59.5%) Paladium (28.5%) and to a lesser extent Gold (1%) and some Base Metals (Nickel & Copper).

kbxk508

 

[kbxk508]

The TCO for AQP Aquarius Platinum (near 200 A$/oz), was incorrect :error: on my 22-July chart. A value of approx. 830 A$/oz (re: attach) is more appropriate given their Jun Qtr stats (as usual DYOR).

kbxk508

Correction: Should be Cash Cost per Ounce, not Total Cost per Ounce (TCO) - did not include EV and Development Cost, cheers

kbxk508

 

[refined silver]

Just wondering if the cyclical bull will reappear this year, gold stocks certainly have taken a battering in the face of a relatively 'stable' gold price? Dare I say it, oversold! LGL in particular has now entered steep discount to it's JORC reserve valuation of approx $5.45 (BGF Equities report). Whether these will be true bargains in as soon as a months time remains to be seen, but I am entering some at these levels now

Chart of XGD All Ords Gold Index - descending wedge looking for a bullish break out?

Longer term view of XAU - testing breakout (about done), then up, up and away???

 

[Sean K]

AGG are on the prowl.

Any likely Aussie add on's?


DJ REPEAT&CORRECT: Anglogold Ashanti Pursing Acquisitions
06/08/2008 12:29PM AEST

KALGOORLIE, Australia (Dow Jones)--AngloGold Ashanti Ltd. (AGG.AU) Chief Executive Mark Cutifani said Wednesday the gold miner is aggressively chasing production growth by turning around underperforming operations and will also consider acquisitions.

Cutifani said that company is reshaping its portfolio of assets and will continue to look for acquisitions, although many gold assets look expensive at the moment.

"M&A is probably the most expensive way to add ounces to the portfolio, (but) it remains one of the options," he told the Diggers and Dealers conference in Kalgoorlie.

In Brazil, Cutifani said the company is aiming to boost the size of the business by 50% over the next five years.

Cutifani said the miner expects to produce between 4.9 million and 5.1 million ounces of gold in 2008 and more than that in 2009

 

[So_Cynical]

AGG are on the prowl.

Any likely Aussie add on's?

I thought they were near broke.

Big debts and big production troubles in south Africa....if there looking to expand
why not fast track Tropicana :dunno: after all its a 4 million oz deposit.

 

[kbxk508]

Last 30 days gold drop in A$ from 999.91 to 930.65 (yesterday). Not much in % terms when you consider how much stocks have given away over the same period.

The DOW is losing big tonight and gold is now 955.77 A$ and rising so I'd expect today may be when Aus Gold stocks should start to recover big losses and then some.

kbxk508

 

[drillinto]

Which gold producers give you the best chance at doubling your money in 2009 ?

 

[So_Cynical]

Which gold producers give you the best chance at doubling your money in 2009 ?

Well that will depend completely on the POG...and how well u timed your entry.

Idea entry is gone so far cos it was in Sept Oct Nov 08..i would imagine if POG was
to see 1300 USD sometime in the next 3 or 4 months...u would double your money
buying almost any gold producer or perhaps even explorer.

I brought MDL TRY LGL and IAU in Sept Oct Nov 08

Its a funny market. :

 

[drillinto]

Gold was the bright spot of the Market

*******************************************

February 01, 2009

That Was The Week That Was … In Australia

By Our Man in Oz >> www.minesite.com

Minews. Good morning Australia. Your comments when we last spoke, about gold shares getting set for an upward run, seem to have been fairly accurate.

Oz. Thanks, but there was no need for a crystal ball then and no need now, because we appear likely to have a repeat performance when our market re-opens on Monday. Just like last week, the big move in the gold price occurred after the Australian market closed on Friday, and while every listed gold stock rose last week, an even better response can be expected next week thanks to one very simple fact - according to the calculations of your man in Oz, the gold price in Australian dollar terms hit an all-time high late on Friday when we were all tucked up in bed, or else watching South Africa thump the Australian cricket team in a day/night game in Perth.

Minews. Commiserations about the cricket. Tell more about your gold price.

Oz. Well, it’s not official, but according to the numbers posted by the Bloomberg wire service, gold in New York was trading around US$927.30 an ounce late on Friday. At the same time the Australian dollar exchange rate fell to around US63.76c. Divide one by the other and you get an Australian dollar gold price of A$1,454 per ounce, a record in my books. A week ago the Australian gold price was around A$1,300 per ounce, which means the combination of the gold price and the currency effect has delivered a price rise of 11.8 per cent in a week, with much of that upward move yet to show through in local share prices.

Minews. Okay, but let’s concentrate on what we know about last week’s market and let next week take care of itself.

Oz. Understood, but that still means we have to start with the gold sector because that’s where the best action was. Uranium stocks stirred pleasantly, and the iron ore sector showed some signs of sparking into life amid reports that we’ve seen the bottom of the spot-market price cutting. Base metals, apart from some signs of life among the copper stocks, were flat, while coal shares picked up, in line with a slightly higher oil price.

Overall, the metals and mining index (XMM) rose a rather impressive 8.9 per cent last week, though that increase needs to be seen against the recent run of very bad weeks. At 3,046.9 the XMM index is back to exactly where it was on 31st December.

Minews. Time for prices, starting with gold, please.

Oz. Best performer of the week was Andean Resources (AND), the Argentinean-focused explorer which was once a takeover target for Kingsgate Resources (KCN). Excellent drill results from Andean’s Cerro Negro project, including 32 metres assaying 34.6 grams a tonne of gold, sent the shares up by 69 per cent to A$1.32. The company says drilling is continuing, and that the Eureka zone at Cerro Negro is shaping as a world-class epithermal gold discovery.

Other gold stocks did well, but didn’t come close to Andean’s performance. Kingsgate, which is making brisk progress in getting back on song, after a year waiting for assorted government approvals to allow the expansion of its Chatree mine in Thailand, rose by A31 cents to A$3.76. Bendigo Mining (BDG) had a promising week. This company has struggled for the best part of two decades to master the tricky geology which lies under the Victoria city which was once home to Australia’s most prolific goldfield. But recent news at least, has been good. Bendigo reported strong December quarter production and the discovery of two new gold reefs. That was enough to lift the shares by 17.8 per cent to A16.5 cents. Also on the up was Centamin Egypt (CNT) which came back strongly after a modest sell-off when it raised additional funds to complete its Sukari mine in Egypt. Centamin rose A7 cents to A86.5 cents.

Minews. Keep an eye on Centamin. It might be worth a detailed update report if you have time.

Oz. Agreed. It is looking very interesting. Let’s move quickly through a few more gold companies before we shift our focus to iron ore and elsewhere. Troy (TRY) reclaimed more lost ground last week with a rise of A7 cents to A$1.03. Perseus (PRU) continues to gather support for its Ayanfuri project in Ghana, the shares rising 22.5 per cent to A73.5 cents. Three months ago Perseus was in the cellar at A20 cents. Resolute (RSG) is also reclaiming lost ground after fighting hard to raise extra cash for its Syama goldmine in Mali. Resolute rose A3 cents last week to A42.5 cents. Independence (IGO) was one of the stronger gold performers, rising by 15.8 per cent to A$2.49. This strength was partly due to speculation that AngloGold Ashanti will allocate some of the US$1.1 billion it raised last week through the sale of a one-third interest in the Boddington mine to purchase the minority stake Independence has in the Tropicana gold discovery.

Minews. An interesting theory in regard to Independence. Best keep an eye on it too. Now time to switch, perhaps, to uranium which seems to be heating up

Oz. Most of the interest in the uranium space was focused on the remarkably strong profit report from Energy Resources of Australia (ERA), which is effectively a subsidiary of Rio Tinto. ERA reported a 191 per cent increase in profits to A$222 million, which served as a nice reminder that even if the spot uranium price has fallen, the long term price remains very high. On the market, ERA rose A$1.10 to A$19.35. Extract (EXT) also performed strongly with a rise of 11 per cent to A$1.62 as it updated the market on its Rossing South discovery, and Uranex (UNX) rose A1 cent to A17 cents.

Minews. Now across to iron ore, please.

Oz. Fortescue Metals (FMG) made all the iron ore noise last week, though it didn’t move much on the market. It reported a paper profit of more than A$1 billion, but it was largely due to an accounting shuffle relating to future obligations. Investors saw through the move, and the shares rose only by a very modest A3 cents to A$1.77. Gindalbie Metals (GBG) was a bigger winner in the week, as it delivered a rise of 11.7 per cent to A57 cents ahead of approaches a series of key decision points for its Karara iron ore mine. Other movers included BC Iron (BCI), which rose 12.9 per cent to A39 cents, and Atlas Iron (AGO), which rose A2 cents to A$1.19. Moving down, but a stock worth watching was Talisman Mining (TLM). It dropped by 22.2 per cent to A14 cents, but is showing every indication of being the “return” corporate vehicle of Kerry Harmanis, the man who walked off with A$500 million in his back pocket after selling Jubilee Mines to Xstrata at the peak of the boom. A series of recent executive appointments indicate that ex-Jubilee staff are flocking to join Talisman.

Minews. That makes Talisman the third company for you to keep a close eye on. Base metals and coal please.

Oz. Nickel, copper, and zinc continue to bounce along the bottom, with little exciting news to report. Kagara (KZL) caused a bit of a stir with news that it might be seeking fresh funds. The rumour didn’t frighten the market, though, and the shares rose A2 cents to A42 cents. Mincor (MCR) managed a rise of half a cent to A63.5 cents, and Albidon (ALB) rose one tenth of a cent to A8 cents after it announced a capital raising.

Equinox (EQN) was one the best of the copper stocks, rising another A6 cents to A$1.92, while Anvil (AVM) rose 11 per cent to A$2.00, but in very thin trade. Zinc stocks were uniformly flat.

Coal stocks were generally stronger, without any real surprises. Centennial (CEY) was the strongest, rising 21 per cent to A$2.83. Felix (FLX) rose A10 cents to A$6.90, and Coal of Africa (CZA) crept A1 cent high to A82 cents.

Minews. Thanks Oz. Keep those gold stocks moving.

 

[drillinto]

February 14, 2009

That Was The Week That Was … In Australia
By Our Man in Oz >> www.minesite.com

Minews. Good morning Australia. You seem to have had another positive week.

Oz. It was, and what’s more, this week’s upward momentum was a continuation of a trend that has been evident for the past few weeks now. In fact, if you trawl back through the data you find that the mining sector is trading at its highest level in three months. No-one is running about shouting that the boom has returned, but there is undoubtedly a more optimistic tone in the market.

Minews. Presumably it’s gold leading the way.

Oz. The straightforward response to that statement is: “yes”. But as you dig into the detail it does become apparent that there was a positive mood right across the sectors last week, and even some of our base metal stocks improved after a terrible run over the past six months or so. Overall the mining market, as measured by the XMM index, was up a respectable 3.7 per cent, just ahead of the all ordinaries, the measurement for the entire Australian market, which was up by 2.6 per cent. The gold sector was aided by the twin boost which came from a lower dollar exchange rate and higher US dollar price for gold. At the close on Friday night gold down this way was fetching A$1,450 an ounce, an all-time record. And, as one miner told your Man in Oz bluntly this week: “if you can’t make money at more than A$1,000 an ounce you ought to quit”.

Minews. Let’s start our weekly survey with a look at the gold space and then roam across the sectors.

Oz. Most gold stocks ended the week comfortably ahead, although there were a few exceptions. One of the best performances came from a stock we don’t hear much about, Argonaut Resources (ARE). It reported a suite of excellent assays from an exploration project in Laos. As a result its share price almost doubled in a day. The best intersection from the company’s Houai Khouay prospect was a 24 metre zone grading 25.5 grams of gold a tonne, with an eight metre section inside that intercept assaying 71.8 grams a tonne. Those results super-charged Argonaut which closed on Friday at A9 cents, a rise of just under 70 per cent

Minews. Good to see that exploration and discovery are back in favour with your investors.

Oz. It is. And Silver Lake (SLR) was another stock that attracted investor attention simply because it is getting on with the business of finding and producing gold. We took a look at the company mid-week, and that, it seems, was fairly timely, as the company’s shares had risen 18 per cent by the time the week was out, closing at A32.5 cents. That rise was thanks entirely to the company delivering on its promise to increase gold output. Troy Resources (TRY) also produced a more than useful price rise. It closed at A$1.35, up 17.4 per cent, after trading as high as A$1.44 at one stage on Friday. In late November, Troy dropped to a low of A67 cents, which, when you tot it up, means that Troy is getting awfully close to having pulled off a double-your money exercise in three months. To be fair, though, buyers were pretty thin on the ground back in those bleak November days so not many will have benefitted from that particular theoretical 100 per cent return.

Also on the way up this week was Kingsgate Consolidated (KCN) which has shaken off last year’s doubts over slow government decision making in Thailand. Kingsgate closed on Friday at A$3.99, up 11.1 per cent, although it did get as high as A$4.07 on Thursday. Meanwhile, Centamin (CNT) was the focus of much attention at Cape Town’s Indaba mining conference early in the week, as it announced the start of mining operations at its Sukari project in Egypt. In response shares in Centamin rose a relatively modest A4 cents to A$1.13, though that price needs to be measured against the low of A55 cents that the shares hit last October.

Minews. There is a pattern emerging in those prices, isn’t there? Quite a few gold stocks seem to have doubled, or come close to doubling, since we reached the depth of the sell-off.

Oz. That does seem to be the picture we’re seeing today. Last year was very much about forced selling to meet margin calls, not to mention a general stampede for the exit because someone claimed that the sky was falling in. Today, we’re seeing a far more rational market, and the reappearance of bargain-basement buyers. So let’s now move quickly through the gold stocks and then flick across to the rest of the market to see if we can discern any patterns elsewhere. Other gold risers included Resolute (RSG), up 13.4 per cent to A63.5 cents, Adamus (ADU) up A2 cents to A24 cents, Avoca (AVO) was up A13 cents to A$1.88, and Dragon Mountain (DMG), up 15 per cent to A11.5 cents. The only fall of significance came from Perseus (PRU) which dropped 13.7 per cent to A70 cents. However this was largely because the company has risen so far, so quickly - profit takers just had to clip the stock back a bit. A few months ago, Perseus was trading at just A20 cents.

Minews. Iron ore now, please.

Oz. This was another sector which was largely dominated by good news, perhaps thanks to interest in the value that Rio Tinto’s iron ore division is afforded through its controversial deal with China Inc. Fortescue Metals (FMG), which could be a major beneficiary of a revival in iron ore interest, hit a three-month high of A$2.81, up 21.1 per cent for the week. Atlas (AGO) also continued a recovery that comes in the wake of a few difficult months, rising another A8 cents to A$1.26. Meanwhile, Northern Iron (NFE) announced a major upgrade of resources at its Norwegian magnetite project, and rose A4 cents to A$1.22. Also on the up was BC Iron (BCI), which rose by 15 per cent to A42 cents, and Territory Iron (TTY), up half a cent to A15 cents. Saving the best for last, a relative unknown called Warwick Resources (WRK) delivered the best rise of the week as it announced excellent assay results at its Woggaginna discovery. Shares in Warwick rose by 80 per cent to A18 cents.

Minews. Base metals and uranium to finish, please.

Oz. The overall trend in base metals trend remained mixed, but it was just about possible to discern an upward drift. Among the nickel stocks Albidon (ALB) added 12.8 per cent back on to its value to close at A8.6 cents. This after it attracted a bit of interest at Indaba. Independence (IGO), perhaps more because of its gold assets, rose 11.3 per cent to A$2.86, while Fox Resources (FXI) reported fresh assays from its Radio Hill mine, and rose A2.5 cents to A54.5 cents. On the way down, Mincor (MCR) slipped A3 cents lower to A68.5 cents, and Western Areas (WSA) fell A13 cents to A$3.88.

Copper stocks put in a similarly mixed performance, although one rather interesting upward move stood out from the crowd. Bougainville Copper (BOC), a real blast from the past, leapt back into the headlines after a 20 year absence. The Papua New Guinea-focused Rio Tinto subsidiary, which you would have to think is for sale, reported a fresh resource calculation of more than one billion tonnes of ore containing three million tonnes of copper and nine million ounces of gold. There are the usual impediments to re-development, such as ongoing tribal warfare in the neighbourhood, but the upgraded resource announcement re-kindled interest and Bougainville rose by 19 per cent to A80 cents. Other copper movers included Marengo (MGO), which was up by 14.5 per cent at A5.5 cents, and Equinox (EQN), which slipped back by A10 cents to A$2.00.

Zinc stocks were generally flat, though Bass Metals (BSM) reported encouraging assays from its Tasmanian project, and rose 12.2 per cent to A11 cents as a result, and Kagara (KZL), which is spending less time on zinc these days and more on nickel, rose an eye-catching 27.8 per cent to A46 cents.

The uranium sector also showed a pleasing upward trend, and there was one stand-out worth noting. Extract Resources (EXT) rose 19.7 per cent to A$1.82, as interest builds in its large Namibian resource and the corporate games that swirl around the company. What made last week’s share price rise from Extract especially interesting was that it is one of the first companies in months to post a price which represents a 12-month high. That has to be a red-letter event, after such an awful period of reporting 12-month share price lows. Other uranium movers included Mantra (MRA), which rose a very respectable 22.2 per cent to A$1.10 after it upgraded its Tanzanian projects and engaged in a bit of marketing at Indaba, and Bannerman (BMN), which rode the revived interest in Namibian uranium with a rise of 17.6 per cent to A73.5 cents.

Minews. Thanks Oz.

 

[kbxk508]

Aus Gold stocks performance since 21-Nov 2008.
Average Gain 73% Nice!

Standouts: Medusa (MML) 237%, Andean (ADL) 193%, Brockman (BRM) 157%, Perseus (PRU) 180%, Intrepid (IAU) 200%, OceanaGold (OGC) 162% & Dragon (DRA) 367%.

kbxk508

 

[So_Cynical]

Interesting chart kbxk508

Notice how almost all the producers are above the average, perhaps its the 2 producers well
below the average that will be the next to run....RSG & CTO

:dunno:

 

[jman2007]

Aus Gold stocks performance since 21-Nov 2008.
Average Gain 73% Nice!

kbxk508

That's some very interesting data kbxk,

Someone who was statistically minded could have a real field day with that dataset and no doubt bring to light some of the more subtle trends too.

Some of the standout performers also have their main base of operations outside Australia, perhaps Australian investors are finally coming to terms with the notion of geo-politcal risk and catching up with their Canadian counterparts?

The way the performance data is skewed towards the producers and advanced explorers suggests that generally investors have had little empathy for the micro-cap explorers - although there have still been some exceptional turn-arounds in this bracket too.

Maybe it's time for some consolidation at the micro-cap end of the market?

jman

 

[JTLP]

Intriguing...

Can anybody explain to me why most of the goldies (producers mainly) took a sharp turn up at the end of the day with increased volume?

Any scary news out there?

JTLP