Gold Stocks Information and Comparison

[rederob]

EQI
Solid performer over many years, offering annual dividends.
Looks likely to get its Cote d'Ivoire project underway at a low capital cost and with robust margins once in production - payback in less than 15 months if POG holds firmly around $700,
EQI will be a very strong runner should POG breakout, as seems inevitable.

 

[reece55]

Ashpool, how about finding out their shares on issue and what their JORC resource is and let us know. That will be a start. Cheers!

Kennas
Per 2006 Annual Report I have 3 Mil tonnes. Total shares on issue 899,525,625 * $0.145 = 130.4 Mil market cap. So, we have $43.4 AUD per ounce....

However, you can't really compare PSV's EV per ounce on the same basis as say LGL, because the cash cost for PSV is $400+, where as it's around $130 (off the top of my head) for LGL........ How you account for this in your analysis and how technical you want to get is up to you I suppose!

Cheers

 

[So_Cynical]

What about psv...?cheap lots of potential? or on a slippery slope?
If you managed to buy in @ <10c every cent up is a 10% gain.

Anyway how do they rate as potential for future growth?

There certainly cheap...but theres valid reasons for that.

What works against them is there mines are old and have very
limited life left..and all there prospecting is in Victoria...theres no
easy gold left in Victoria.

There bottom line will look better next year so its easy to see there
shares getting to 20c + at some stage....as long as the POG continues
on its merry way

 

[Sean K]

Kennas
Per 2006 Annual Report I have 3 Mil tonnes. Total shares on issue 899,525,625 * $0.145 = 130.4 Mil market cap. So, we have $43.4 AUD per ounce....

However, you can't really compare PSV's EV per ounce on the same basis as say LGL, because the cash cost for PSV is $400+, where as it's around $130 (off the top of my head) for LGL........ How you account for this in your analysis and how technical you want to get is up to you I suppose!

Cheers

Thanks Reece. Yes, will work these things into the spreadsheet somehow. Will keep it simple for the minute.

 

[Sean K]

EQI
Solid performer over many years, offering annual dividends.
Looks likely to get its Cote d'Ivoire project underway at a low capital cost and with robust margins once in production - payback in less than 15 months if POG holds firmly around $700,
EQI will be a very strong runner should POG breakout, as seems inevitable.

Shares on issue, SP, Au equiv, cash costs..????

 

[rederob]

Shares on issue, SP, Au equiv, cash costs..????

kennas
We are not comparing apples with apples.
People who are trying to come to grips with gold shares need to understand a whole range of factors.
Croesus was the last gold stock to go belly up.
It had pretty good mines, and the phoenix that will rise after it should do pretty well.
But like Sons of Gwalia before it, Croesus had bought into hedge commitments that ultimately brought it down.
So you are welcome to number crunch to your heart's content.
But if you cannot marry together the myriad of factors that will impact a goldie going forward, you risk getting badly burnt.

For example, Lihir is one of the best gold plays right now.
It sits in a geologically unstable part of the world. The nature of its mining operation is highly susceptible to an earthquake, while its processing facility is equally susceptible to a tsunami.
Which book did you read that told you of these risks?
Where do these factors slot into your comparative data sets?
What other vital information are you not factoring into your considerations?

For example, what are a producer's reserve replacement costs?
What is its reserve replacement history?
Will mine sequencing affect its near term price or long term price as moves to or from very high value ore bodies?
Is it possible that water availability could affect mining operations? (Have a look at the mines in Africa presently flooded, and the Australian operations that could be marginalised by lack of water or high water prices in future.)
What impact will poor ore quality, say through metal contaminants or rock hardness, have on capacity to mine at profit?

I won't go on, but hope at least some folk understand that the raw numbers you are crunching will not give you the answers you think you might be able to get.

 

[Sean K]

kennas
We are not comparing apples with apples.
People who are trying to come to grips with gold shares need to understand a whole range of factors.
Croesus was the last gold stock to go belly up.
It had pretty good mines, and the phoenix that will rise after it should do pretty well.
But like Sons of Gwalia before it, Croesus had bought into hedge commitments that ultimately brought it down.
So you are welcome to number crunch to your heart's content.
But if you cannot marry together the myriad of factors that will impact a goldie going forward, you risk getting badly burnt.

For example, Lihir is one of the best gold plays right now.
It sits in a geologically unstable part of the world. The nature of its mining operation is highly susceptible to an earthquake, while its processing facility is equally susceptible to a tsunami.
Which book did you read that told you of these risks?
Where do these factors slot into your comparative data sets?
What other vital information are you not factoring into your considerations?

For example, what are a producer's reserve replacement costs?
What is its reserve replacement history?
Will mine sequencing affect its near term price or long term price as moves to or from very high value ore bodies?
Is it possible that water availability could affect mining operations? (Have a look at the mines in Africa presently flooded, and the Australian operations that could be marginalised by lack of water or high water prices in future.)
What impact will poor ore quality, say through metal contaminants or rock hardness, have on capacity to mine at profit?

I won't go on, but hope at least some folk understand that the raw numbers you are crunching will not give you the answers you think you might be able to get.

I absolutely agree, but maybe we can add these things to the analysis on the way. We have to start somewhere with comparing the apples, so let's start with just a few things and work our way up.

 

[michael_selway]

AVO

Market cap - $362m
Resource - Greater than 2m ounces and growing constantly (unhedged)
Costs - AUD $369 ounce

Does AVO have a limited mine life?

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2006 2007 2008 2009
EPS -1.2 -1.9 6.4 16.5
DPS 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

EPS(c) PE Growth
Year Ending 30-06-07 -1.9 -- --
Year Ending 30-06-08 6.4 26.4 --

A feasibility update on the development of the Trident project was released in August 2006. Targeted gold production is around 150,000ozpa, which is a mine life out to 2012 based on the current resource.

 

[ormond]

MML
Shares on issue 142,037,548
Share price $1.41
Market cap $200,272,942
Resource of 713000 ounces and growing rapidly
Initial production of 40000 ounces per annum
Gold production cash cost us$217 per ounce

 

[rederob]

I absolutely agree, but maybe we can add these things to the analysis on the way. We have to start somewhere with comparing the apples, so let's start with just a few things and work our way up.

Yes.
But shares on issue can hide the difference between explorer and producer.
Having say 100m shares on issue means diddly squat if you need to raise capital, and it will dilute that base by ten to one.
Having followed gold equities for some time I have learned there is no holy grail to investing success that beats sheer hard work and understanding.
Even then a lucky punt comes along and makes all the hard work nugatory.

 

[So_Cynical]

EQI
Solid performer over many years, offering annual dividends.
Looks likely to get its Cote d'Ivoire project underway at a low capital cost and with robust margins once in production - payback in less than 15 months if POG holds firmly around $700,
EQI will be a very strong runner should POG breakout, as seems inevitable.

Cote d'Ivoire...is there just 1 govt there at the moment??,
so the rebellion/political instability is over? French troops gone home.?

PNG is way more politically stable than any west African country
the exception is Ghana.

 

[Sean K]

Yes.
But shares on issue can hide the difference between explorer and producer.
Having say 100m shares on issue means diddly squat if you need to raise capital, and it will dilute that base by ten to one.
Having followed gold equities for some time I have learned there is no holy grail to investing success that beats sheer hard work and understanding.
Even then a lucky punt comes along and makes all the hard work nugatory.

Yes, that's why I have separated them into explorers/developers and producers.

Do we need to separate them any further?

 

[Bush Trader]

Kennas,

Might be a speculative explorer to monitor, upgraded JORC Expected shortly in the vicinity of 350,000oz
Maiden JORC resource 215,000 oz Au equivalent
Shares: 82,958,931. Price 29cents = Market Cap of $24,058,090 = Owns 65% of Resource

Plus significant existing mining infrastructure adjacent to the Golden and Blue Spec mines, including: Established shafts, declines and access drives 40,000 TPA treatment plant (upgradeable to 80,000 TPA with additional float cells). Access to sufficient water for operations; Tailings dam; Full mining camp; Good roads - only 2 hrs from Newman; Granted mining leases - no Native Title issues.

This may also help to promote some ideas
2006 Gold Mining Journal Gold Explorer of the Year:
1. Tropicana: AngloGold Ashanti/Independence Group
2. Avoca Resources
3. Goldstar Resources/Navigator Resources
4. Alkane Exploration
5. Mercator Gold
6. Dominion Mining, Integra Mining, Perseus Mining, Troy Resources, Red 5, Wedgetail Mining
7. Cougar Metals, Moto Goldmines, Marengo Mining, Minotaur Exploration
8. Bass Metals, Sino Gold, Oropa, Lihir Gold
9. Monax Mining, Agincourt Resources, Dioro Exploration, Oxiana, Oceanagold, Tianshan Goldfields
10. Tasgold, Medusa Mining, Andean Resources, Echo Resources, Northwest Resources

2006 Gold Mining Journal Gold Miner of the Year:
1. Dominion Mining
2. Troy Resources
3. Barrick Gold
4. St Barbara Mines
5. Newcrest Mining
6. Oxiana, Oceanagold
7. Kingsgate Consolidated, Sino Gold
8. Newmont Mining
9. Equigold, Intrepid Minerals
10. Lihir Gold.


Cheers


BT

 

[Go Nuke]

Hmm well I dont know where this ranks but I'll mention the info I can find (2006 Annual Report)

Resolute Mining (RSG)

Markt Cap 343Mil
Ordinary Shares - 229 124 559
Unlisted Options - 3 687 500
Current share price - $1.48

Yielded 290 000 ounces of gold @ A$518/ounce
In the 06 report RSG forecast 300,000 ounces @S$570/ounce for the next financial year

Mining in Tanzania,Mali, Ghana, and Australia.

I believe the Syama mines comes online next year adding a significant amount of gold to their resources.
I'm unsure of hedging.

 

[Nicks]

Hey Kennas, got an updated table yet? would be interesting to see with POG up even more.

Also - remember when considering the Market Cap / Oz Au equation consider other fundamentals eg. AVO is set and ready to pump it out of the ground, has already spent its money on exploration, development and production start up. These things make for huge factors in SP value (Merril Lynch have just put AVO as a buy).

 

[michael_selway]

Kennas,

Might be a speculative explorer to monitor, upgraded JORC Expected shortly in the vicinity of 350,000oz
Maiden JORC resource 215,000 oz Au equivalent
Shares: 82,958,931. Price 29cents = Market Cap of $24,058,090 = Owns 65% of Resource

Plus significant existing mining infrastructure adjacent to the Golden and Blue Spec mines, including: Established shafts, declines and access drives 40,000 TPA treatment plant (upgradeable to 80,000 TPA with additional float cells). Access to sufficient water for operations; Tailings dam; Full mining camp; Good roads - only 2 hrs from Newman; Granted mining leases - no Native Title issues.

This may also help to promote some ideas
2006 Gold Mining Journal Gold Explorer of the Year:
1. Tropicana: AngloGold Ashanti/Independence Group
2. Avoca Resources
3. Goldstar Resources/Navigator Resources
4. Alkane Exploration
5. Mercator Gold
6. Dominion Mining, Integra Mining, Perseus Mining, Troy Resources, Red 5, Wedgetail Mining
7. Cougar Metals, Moto Goldmines, Marengo Mining, Minotaur Exploration
8. Bass Metals, Sino Gold, Oropa, Lihir Gold
9. Monax Mining, Agincourt Resources, Dioro Exploration, Oxiana, Oceanagold, Tianshan Goldfields
10. Tasgold, Medusa Mining, Andean Resources, Echo Resources, Northwest Resources

2006 Gold Mining Journal Gold Miner of the Year:
1. Dominion Mining
2. Troy Resources
3. Barrick Gold
4. St Barbara Mines
5. Newcrest Mining
6. Oxiana, Oceanagold
7. Kingsgate Consolidated, Sino Gold
8. Newmont Mining
9. Equigold, Intrepid Minerals
10. Lihir Gold.


Cheers


BT

Hi BT, which ones on the 2 lists do you like at current prices?

thx

MS

 

[greenfs]

I am not BT but my two cents worth is:

Intrepid Mining (IAU) - See my post today under separate thread. With its imminent merger most of its problems appear solved and strong management team should one day see the share price exceed $1 based upon 2007 market valuations offered by broking houses. I am a holder of this stock at an average entry price of 49cents so hope that I am at least half right in this statement (LOL)

Dragon Mountain Gold (DMG) - This is a fairly new gold stock listing with its territory in China, which may be outside the scope of what you are seeking. However, I understand that a number of the better broking houses are having a serious look even though the stock at $0.57 is already at a substantial premium to its listing price of $0.40 as at end of 07/2007. As much as 37% of stock is held by two founding owners, which similar to RCO, might lead to a higher share price being achieved.

 

[Sean K]

Sorry guys have missed this thread recently. Will have an update later today. I was going to worl on something in another format but have been distracted. Will post a revised table now and an work on it some more later.

 

[Sean K]

If I haven't included some detail here it's because it wasn't included on the forum.

Please, if you provide a goldie to be included here state shares on issue and JORC'd gold resources as a minimum.

Will do some more on this tonight (your day)

Cheers.

 

[alphman]

How about CGX? Details can be found here.