Gold Price - Where is it heading?

Garpal Gumnut · 21 June 2022

I follow your thinking @Stockybailz but don't agree with some of the assumptions and inputs.

The Hong Kong trading hours seem to be accumalatory ( is that a word ) for Gold, and in London they conversely sell. This has been a pattern for some months.

There is a tension between the Capital markets of China and the US as to "Reserve Currency" the USD or the CNY (Yuan or Renminbi).

Equally there is a developing war in Europe and Russia and the Europeans are notoriously indifferent to flagging a war until they are up to their gills in one. So war is on the cards, and not just a little one.

As to the AUD/USD it may go either way, but gold will definitely go up as the Chinese are accumulating it as are most mid to large nations. Once they have enough they can ditch the USD as a reserve currency which will enhance their own and lower borrowing rates for them.

The USD = Reserve Currence
The AUD = Commodities

I cannot see commodities falling in price. They will go up in war for weapons and infrastructure replacement. In peace commodities are needed for progress. The AUD is a proxy for commodities in currency trading.

Gold will rise either way as it has for thousands of years and any currency changes will either make for a large profit or a huge profit in AUD.

gg

Telamelo · 22 June 2022

AUD Gold price ripping higher tonight at $2,668 +1.46% whilst oil price -5.4% lower

Stockbailx · 25 June 2022

AU Gold coming down off highs yesterday as the AUD bounced off support and bulls fort for higher ground, breaking though resistance late in the evening last night. If I was any good at looking at the forecast of AU Gold, I would predict they there will be further swing down for the precious metal...

Dona Ferentes · 25 June 2022

And there's a view that gold is suffering from its own stagflation; has traded narrowly and not retested pre-Ukraine high while AISC are rising relentlessly.

Tough Week for Some Local Gold Producers - ShareCafe

The past week has seen the Australian gold sector spring a leak, with three good producers revealing unexpected operational problems, catching investors on the hop.

www.sharecafe.com.au

Telamelo · 25 June 2022

Dona Ferentes said:
And there's a view that gold is suffering from its own stagflation; has traded narrowly and not retested pre-Ukraine high while AISC are rising relentlessly.

Tough Week for Some Local Gold Producers - ShareCafe

The past week has seen the Australian gold sector spring a leak, with three good producers revealing unexpected operational problems, catching investors on the hop.

www.sharecafe.com.au

Only Gold producer so far on track to meet guidance comfortably is WGX (per their recent positive forecast release).. also, substantial holder notice came on board as of yesterday.

divs4ever · 25 June 2022

they didn't 'leak ' enough to tempt me to buy extra gold miners during the week

Garpal Gumnut · 25 June 2022

I must admit I'm avoiding Gold Stocks until all the general issues affecting miners such as supply chain, geopolitics etc. are more predictable.

Gold itself I may accumulate if it falls in AUD. So far I'm ahead on my "gold insurance".

gg

The Triangle · 25 June 2022

Telamelo said:
Only Gold producer so far on track to meet guidance comfortably is WGX (per their recent positive forecast release).. also, substantial holder notice came on board as of yesterday.

Except no financials to accompany the "bumper" report from Westgold. AISC is accounting witchcraft.

Truth comes from how much cash is in the bank and we must wait for the quarterly/EOFY
Capex?
Debts?
Leases?
Resource depletion?
Revenue per ounce?

Do you trust the Investments made today (which outstripped operating revenue last half) will deliver appropriate returns tomorrow? (*cough* Dacian)

Garpal Gumnut said:
I must admit I'm avoiding Gold Stocks until all the general issues affecting miners such as supply chain, geopolitics etc. are more predictable.

Gold itself I may accumulate if it falls in AUD. So far I'm ahead on my "gold insurance".

gg

Not a bad view to have. JBHI-FI can pass along cost increases to the customer pretty easily. How does westgold, newcrest, northern star, etc. pass along wage increases, diesel increases, consumable prices increases, fifo food cost increases? Answer: They don't.

divs4ever · 26 June 2022

The Triangle said:
Not a bad view to have. JBHI-FI can pass along cost increases to the customer pretty easily. How does westgold, newcrest, northern star, etc. pass along wage increases, diesel increases, consumable prices increases, fifo food cost increases? Answer: They don't.

am not so sure JBH has that sort of luxury either going forward , but MOST miners ( the base metal ones ) are looking at reasonably high prizes , another factor is the Australian dollar ( for some of them ) a weak 'Holy Dollar ' is a good thing unless they are upgrading plant , it is always a balancing act with miners , some can cut costs by decreasing exploration or brownfield development on a temporary basis

Garpal Gumnut · 26 June 2022

The G7 has decided to further tighten the screws on Russian gold production and refined sales.

The following are reports today from Bloomberg.com

The US, UK, Japan and Canada plan to announce a ban on new gold imports from Russia during a summit of Group of Seven leaders that’s getting underway Sunday.

To put this in context for gold traders Bloomberg kindly provided a pie chart of world gold production from 2020.

So Russia is on a par with Australia and still producing. Much of their gold will be diverted to India and The Middle East as London and Zurich and the above mentioned G7's have closed any sales from Russia for the foreseeable future.

It is difficult to predict what effect this will have on the price of gold. I am told Russians in general and Russian oligarchs in particular are piling in to gold atm.

gg

Garpal Gumnut · 27 June 2022

I've been looking at the POG and following the war in Europe and the shenanigans in the USA, China and Russia. All three empires seem strangely unstable, and not that strong, all at once. The USA because of hubris, China because they have too many uncontrollable balls in the air ( not least Mr. Xi's ) and Russia because they have too many sheep being led by fat old men with small dicks.

The AUD/USD, unless there is some peace, will not reach it's recent heydays of 79-81c anytime soon, so at 69c it will bobble 1-2c up and down. For those buying Gold in USD this is as good as it will get for some time.

Chartwise, the POG has been building up a sideways consolidation between $1800 and $2000 for the past 2 years. It will not stay in this range much longer. Frankly I cannot see it fall.

So ...

gg

ducati916 · 28 June 2022

Garpal Gumnut said:
I've been looking at the POG and following the war in Europe and the shenanigans in the USA, China and Russia. All three empires seem strangely unstable, and not that strong, all at once. The USA because of hubris, China because they have too many uncontrollable balls in the air ( not least Mr. Xi's ) and Russia because they have too many sheep being led by fat old men with small dicks.

The AUD/USD, unless there is some peace, will not reach it's recent heydays of 79-81c anytime soon, so at 69c it will bobble 1-2c up and down. For those buying Gold in USD this is as good as it will get for some time.

Chartwise, the POG has been building up a sideways consolidation between $1800 and $2000 for the past 2 years. It will not stay in this range much longer. Frankly I cannot see it fall.

So ...

View attachment 143363

gg

Mr GG,

This really depends on whether you are talking about paper gold or physical gold. The 2 markets are quite divergent currently.

Paper gold will fall when the markets enter a liquidity event, correlations move to 1. Physical gold premiums, particularly for retail will not fall much, if at all. The issue will be availability...can you actually get physical.

Paper gold will bounce back. If you are fast, you could probably buy near the bottom. The issue is that standing for delivery on the physical is likely to be fruitless.

Why you would want the physical.

At issue is the viability of fiat currencies. The liquidity event in the USD will force the Fed back to QE, pegged interest rates and even higher inflation. That inflation carries a risk of a hyper-inflation if the general population starts to dump dollars. If the USD goes, all fiats go.

At this point the IMF steps in with SDRs. SDRs are simply another fiat. If the SDRs fail to stem the tide of fiat dumping, the only way is to back the currency with gold. I think everyone now realises that cryptos are a non-starter.

Hence China, Russia, Brazil all the 'Stans' and a few others are creating a currency backed by a basket of commodities. This is not a new idea. It was extensively debated in the 1940's/50's. A bit unwieldy.

Individuals need physical gold/silver.

jog on
duc

Telamelo · 29 June 2022

AUD Gold price up as we speak @ $2,658 +0.85%

Telamelo · 2 July 2022

After poor price action yesterday... Gold price since recovered overnight to finish at AUD $2,654 +1.37% equates to US $1,813

divs4ever · 2 July 2022

Garpal Gumnut said:
The G7 has decided to further tighten the screws on Russian gold production and refined sales.

The following are reports today from Bloomberg.com

To put this in context for gold traders Bloomberg kindly provided a pie chart of world gold production from 2020.

So Russia is on a par with Australia and still producing. Much of their gold will be diverted to India and The Middle East as London and Zurich and the above mentioned G7's have closed any sales from Russia for the foreseeable future.

It is difficult to predict what effect this will have on the price of gold. I am told Russians in general and Russian oligarchs in particular are piling in to gold atm.

gg

the last i heard 90% of gold mined inside Russia went straight into the Russian Central Bank ( which is obviously out of step with several other major Central Banks )

and also last i heard the Russian criminal world had an extensive black-market , i am sure Russia will find a solution .

againsthegrain · 2 July 2022

divs4ever said:
the last i heard 90% of gold mined inside Russia went straight into the Russian Central Bank ( which is obviously out of step with several other major Central Banks )

and also last i heard the Russian criminal world had an extensive black-market , i am sure Russia will find a solution .

Russian criminal world actually works with the Russian government just through proxies so there will be a solution there

divs4ever · 2 July 2022

againsthegrain said:
Russian criminal world actually works with the Russian government just through proxies so there will be a solution there

actually the KGB as i understand it but then the CIA has a relationship with the Mafia , so not so unusual

againsthegrain · 2 July 2022

divs4ever said:
actually the KGB as i understand it but then the CIA has a relationship with the Mafia , so not so unusual

After the soviet union broke up all the ex kgb either ended up in the government or the mafia so the line between them became very blurry, im sure now the structure changed but still principle.

Yeah cia is no angel either with their little "war on drugs" adventures.

divs4ever · 2 July 2022

againsthegrain said:
After the soviet union broke up all the ex kgb either ended up in the government or the mafia so the line between them became very blurry, im sure now the structure changed but still principle.

Yeah cia is no angel either with their little "war on drugs" adventures.

not just the KGB but the Russian parliament is dominated by ex security/intelligence high-ranking officials ( from various branches ) , which makes an educational change from the more common military junta

for example do Russian parliamentarians tap former information sources when forming policy ( circumventing the usual government consultants )

Telamelo · 3 July 2022

@Student of Gann I'd be interested in your analysis about Gold (if you have the time please).

Thanks in advance.

Gold Price - Where is it heading?

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