Gold Price - Where is it heading?

rederob · 26 July 2019

As can be seen from the hourly chart below, POG has not dipped below $1400 since 10 July:

Other interesting features include the nice platform building around $1415, and the elevators both up and down in price.
Between the elevator rides there is a consistent theme of prolonged, steady rises in price, confirming that momentum remains on the buying side.
With the USA's FOMC now looking at rate cuts, POG's upward trajectory looks reasonably safe for the next few months.

rederob · 27 July 2019

Here's an almost picture perfect pattern of strength:

After long term resistance was broken on 20 June (bottom left), POG has stepped incrementally higher.
Nice pattern of consolidation above $1400 suggests there is a lot more upside, while market weakness continues to be bought out.

rederob · 2 August 2019

Gold was smacked down overnight, but recovered even more strongly to close at a probable 6 year high as the week draws to a close, as seen in the 30 minute chart below:

The arm wrestle waged between the shorts and longs keeps seeing the gold price ratcheting higher, so I continue to be optimistic into the medium term.
Blind Freddy can tell that globally there remains significant market uncertainty and, coupled with the FED rate drop this week, holding a defensive asset like gold seems to be a sensible strategy.
Oz goldies took a hit yesterday, so look like bouncing back with a vengeance today given the sharp price reversal. In that regard AMI, which recently fell out of favour, looks to be a good long term play given it won't have hedged much of its production at the lower AUD prices that most other producers have sold into.

BlindSquirrel · 2 August 2019

it still can't seems to get properly through 1445USD.
It's certainly been up and down like a whore's drawers in the last couple of days!

rederob · 4 August 2019

Short term gold equities are "sell" given some have risen disproportionately with POG, eg NCM has increased some 50% in 3 months compared with less than 15% for POG in the same period.

I am not suggesting "sell" is the way to go unless you are trading, and here is why:

The Gold Bugs Index is in its infancy if we truly are in a bull market, and that's my thinking. So I will not be quitting any of my gold equities any time soon.
Back to NCM for a moment: in perspective, this company is going to knock out about 2.5million ounces over the next year, so every dollar increase to POG generates a massive profit. Four years ago its margin was USD$330/oz, compared with $589 in the 2019 financial year. In the 2020 financial year you can already add an extra $USD100/oz to that, so being leveraged by volume will play a major role in comparative equity profitability equations.

tinhat · 4 August 2019

I haven't been following gold but I just took a look at the weekly chart which contains a text book example of a cup and handle formation. Cup forms between Jan 18 and Jan 19. Handle forms between Jan 19 and May 19, when price breaks out strongly above the Jan 18 resistance level.

explod · 4 August 2019

The rise in the Aussie is the one I like as it will multiply our goldie returns:-
https://www.kitco.com/gold_currency/index.html?currency=aud&timePeriod=10y&flag=gold&otherChart=no#

rederob · 6 August 2019

Trade tensions kicked off by China's revaluing of the yuan yesterday stirred gold overnight,
We wake to another recent-time record high, with gold decisively jumping the $1450 hurdle to sit above $1470 as I post.
Trump has proven he has not mastered the art of the deal in international politics, and so we are left with lingering uncertainties all over the place. The likelihood of protracted trade war play and counterplays seems strong, so my thinking is very much along the lines of POG at $1500 being somewhat of a formality. The race to $1600 might begin a lot earlier than I would prefer because the ingredients to get it there are now being baked in a much warmer oven.
Here is the daily chart for the past year:

Not too hard to see where the trend lies.
And here is the action over the past week on a 30-minute chart:

I was struck by their similarity.
In stock market terms, gold equities are presently over extended. However, the current run could last long enough to see any short term trashing being quickly overturned, as evidenced from the above.
I can only say that if I was a gold producer, I would look to de-hedge as quickly as possible and start selling into a significantly more profitable gold market going forward.

rederob · 9 August 2019

The formality of $1500 came a bit quick so expect some profit taking.
I am not a fan of crazy fast price increases as it leaves too many holes to backfill.
That said, POG spent over 5 years in the wilderness, and remains well over $400 shy of it's all time record, so holding above $1500 is not stretching the envelope.
I am stuck on a mobile phone for a few more weeks so will hopefully post some charts again when I get back to Oz.

explod · 9 August 2019

In my view the long term chart speaks volumes for where gold is heading. The doubt in the financial systems, zero interest rates with continued growing debts, automation and the loss of jobs are big drivers atm.

BlindSquirrel · 13 August 2019

Third time's the charm for that 1510 level!
It's now marching past 1523. Hopefully keeps going to my target (1535 - last seen in 2012).

Uncle Festivus · 13 August 2019

Rumour JPM in trouble.....
Euro banks insolvent on NIRP.....Deutsche Bank
$15T in neg yld junk
USD no longer least dirty shirt with crypto and gold...
QE imminent!

BlindSquirrel · 13 August 2019

... I...
huh?
Does that mean up or down? QE for whom?

BlindSquirrel · 14 August 2019

Also: I nailed it this time. My CFD target was hit at 1535USD and it has since dived. Currently holding just over 1500.

explod · 14 August 2019

A good gap fill and a solid revving of the engine for a bigger run.

BlindSquirrel · 22 August 2019

Flag/Pennant forming on the 4H chart. Bullish?

explod · 22 August 2019

The economic front is very volatile too and gold is in record territory in all other currencies (with volatility also) so cant' see it holding back from a good rise soon.

We'll see.

rederob · 23 August 2019

BlindSquirrel said:
Flag/Pennant forming on the 4H chart. Bullish?

All the global ingredients are suggesting the gold price is going to hold and rise.
There will be some now with good profits from the sharp rise in the past few months, so spurts off profit taking may see more of the rapid declines which have sporadically occurred.
These are likely to repeat the "buy the dips" mentality which imho will keep pushing new recent all-time highs to much greater heights.
Top this with negative yield curves in .money markets and gold's bullish case is for now settled.

barney · 23 August 2019

BlindSquirrel said:
Flag/Pennant forming on the 4H chart. Bullish?

explod said:
so cant' see it holding back from a good rise soon.

rederob said:
All the global ingredients are suggesting the gold price is going to hold and rise.

I hope you guys are right and well positioned …… Its interesting to watch a lot of Gold Stocks struggle since their recent spikes, even though the POG is still looking strong. I am banking/hoping on it being a bit of a shake out before the next even bigger push, but there is a little heat being generated where I am seated just at the moment

qldfrog · 24 August 2019

@explod
Wall Street took a hit minus 2.5 % so far.so gold stocks should be strong on monday

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