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Gold Price - Where is it heading?

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Gold 4H - As we open for the week gold is struggling with resistance @ the 1420 level. Not really looking like we are going to take another crack at the breakout line in Mondays session. Looking near due for a push upward on the daily so I am guessing sometime this week. The consolidation is getting tighter... so the $64 Q is still break up or down? Still leaning bullish over here but a correction wouldn't be out of place and indeed many are calling for one!

 
Mr Z said:
Big resistance @ ~ 1600 area! $1700 would reflect MAJOR strength. I'm not sure that she has that much steam up just yet.
Click to expand...
Yep, but resistances can be broken. Prefer to ride the major trend, but could take profit off just before that area to be safe.
 
Gold 4H - On support and now looking properly due to swing upward. Needless to say we need to hold this support and break the overhead resistance with some gusto, a new high close is needed in short order to confirm any break out. IMO.

 
USDX Monthly - long term. I can see us getting back to trend here which will boost gold. That process could/should take into early 2020. Then we will probably start up again. Interestingly this matches Martin Armstrong's cycle turn date. If we get going to the upside and crack that 103 level then 120 is on the table. @ that point the world should be feeling the pain. I guess that if anything big is going to unfold here it happens roughly on in this time frame. IMO the period of time where the USD changes direction will likely be very challenging for US based gold investors.
 
Gold 4H ---> Looking a lot like liftoff, new highs and then we can consider a shot @ the very high 15's ---> JMO, for now.

 
Bridgewater Capital likes gold...
 

Attachments

  • Ray Dalio Warns A -New Paradigm-Is Coming-Buy Gold, Sell Stocks.pdf
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sptrawler said:
Thanks Mr Z, a well written analysis. The problem with gold IMO, is holding it, if everything goes pear shaped from memory the Gov can commandeer it.
Click to expand...

In Australia that is true... but not so for silver or a quality miner. At the moment silver is just starting to perk up from a near record undervaluation v gold. If you can handle volatility silver is setup to fly once again IMO.
 
Gold Monthly --> The target area is marked and by the looks of it late this year is a reasonable timeline. ***Should*** we make this target and we get a bad period for stocks in Sept/Oct you should prepare yourself for the possibility that we track back down to the lower trendline. That could be as low as 1300 mid next year. Remember 2008, bathwater and babies went out the window together and then gold picked up afterwards. Watch for a similar outcome this time. However, in 2007/8 everything was 'priced for perfection', this time gold is quite unloved so by then it will likely only be the recent 'weak handed' momentum chasers that get flushed. That should limit downside, but, keep it in mind... markets go up the stairs & down the elevator!

 
Yesterday's Comex gold price settled at a recent record high after breaking long term resistance about a month ago.
Overnight Mr Trump's actions via his Iran expedition (shooting down a drone in Hormuz) rocketed gold to a probable new high again, some $20 above the previous close as I add this post:


The upside to commentary is that recent support has strongly held above $1382, while $1400 has not been breached in the past week.
Coupled with sharp thrusts higher, which rattle the short sellers, we tread much firmer ground as POG continues to rally.
The next level of resistance is around $1450 - historically tracking back to March 2011.
What is interesting when looking at POG's monthly movements is that it uncommon for successive months to carry high gains, so I will be comfortable with consolidation in the range $1400-$1450 for two or three months.
However, should Trump continue his unique brand of diplomacy, a race to $1600 could happen a lot quicker than it otherwise would.
 
Gold 4H USD - We are on a breakout by the looks of things. The second chart gives fibo projections based on the Flag/Pennant consolidation.



 
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