Gold Price - Where is it heading?

MARKETWINNER said:

When I was in another forum one gentleman told me to by something in Australia which is not physical gold and something like Gold Certificate long ago.I can’t remember what it is.

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I think Australia has some wonderful gold stocks to buy MW. I would look more to holding gold stocks than physical gold. As the price of gold rises, so too do the stocks and with an added advantage you often receive dividends from the gold stocks whereas physical gold does not pay a dividend and one has the extra need of a secure repository for the physical. Stocks are easier to dispose of if the price begins to fall as well.

MARKETWINNER said:

According to analysts there is no real reason to hold gold as an asset

Analysts were talking about gold is going to $500 & $300.

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I wonder whether those same analysts might also be accumulating while they talk it down

Gold at $500 would shut most if not all Gold Mines down I'd guess.

Supply is limited and Demand is pretty solid.

If everyone stops buying jewelry of course the S/D curve might alter a bit but personally I think those analysists might need to have a chat to Darryl Kerrigan

barney said:

personally I think those analysists might need to have a chat to Darryl Kerrigan

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'Tell him he's dreamin'!'

in the 'that's interesting file'

@iron_emu said:

Here's the difference between what African countries officially exported, and what the UAE recorded it imported from those countries. Read our story: https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/gold-africa-smuggling/ …

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Trading in gold accounts for nearly one-fifth of UAE’s GDP. But no big industrial companies reached by Reuters – including AngloGold Ashanti, Sibanye-Stillwater and Gold Fields – say they send gold there.

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Some artisanal African miners are swapping their pickaxes and shovels for diggers and crushers. Accidents are frequent. In one week this February, three accidents at illegal mining operations in Zimbabwe, Guinea and Liberia claimed the lives of more than 100 people.

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A Tanzanian parliamentary report estimated that 90 percent of annual production of informally mined gold is smuggled out of the country

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click link for story https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/gold-africa-smuggling/

It is always interesting to see what influences markets on the day....

Gold Gets Taken for a Ride After Fed Comments

Gold traders can be forgiven for feeling a bit queasy as efforts to parse economic signals from the U.S. Federal Reserve put them on a roller-coaster ride.

The metal jumped on Wednesday after the Fed said in a statement that it kept its benchmark U.S. rate unchanged and lowered the interest paid on reserves deposited with the central bank. Low rates are a boon to gold, which doesn’t pay interest. More...

My Gold stocks have been meandering recently ….

GOLD AUD Chart …. Sometimes the symmetrical V patterns behave … If so, another low under the recent low might be worth watching ….. (for a little dig to the upside that is) …..

Wishful thinking perhaps

Good jump out of the box for a Monday morning.

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Jewelers Cut Prices to Lure Buyers on India's Gold-Buying Day

Jewelers in India are lining up discounts to entice consumers on the second-biggest gold-buying day in the Hindu calendar.

Hindus buy valuables including gold and silver on Akshaya Tritiya, which falls on Tuesday this year, in the belief that it will bring luck and prosperity. That faith coupled with discounts and an about 7 percent drop in prices from an over five-year high in February is underpinning jewelers’ expectations for brisk sales.

Retailers like Malabar Gold & Diamonds are offering as much as 50 percent off on jewelry-making charges, while Tata Group’s Titan Co. is giving a discount of up to 25 percent. The charges vary from store to store and city to city and can contribute as much as 10 percent to the total cost of an ornament. Others are giving freebies such as Kerala-based Kalyan Jewellers, which said it is giving away gold coins for free to some customers. More...

Australia’s gold production ‘almost certain’ to fall after record highs in 2019

Gold production in Australia hit an all-time high in 2018, but new research sees the country’s output falling dramatically by 2024 as some of its biggest gold mines peter out.


Australia broke a 21-year production record last year after producing 317 tonnes (about 11.2 million ounces) of gold according to data released by analyst Surbiton Associates in March.


It is expected to produce an estimated 10.7Moz this year – equivalent to about $19.2 billion – placing the country second behind China in a list of the world’s biggest gold-producing nations.


However, a recent report by market analysis firm S&P Global Market Intelligence has forecast Australia will slide to fourth place behind Canada and Russia by 2024. More...

....and they say money doesn't grow on trees!...

If you’re looking for gold, look in trees

Prospecting for gold by looking for it in leaves has finally proved itself commercially in Australia.

IN THE GOOD old days, gold miners could seek out visible specks of bling at the surface in order to find deeper, richer veins. These days, prospectors must examine samples of dirt for more minute traces suggestive of a hidden seam below. Analysing water from boreholes can also yield clues, but boreholes are scarce and new ones are costly and time-consuming to drill.

Trees offer an alternative that is finally bearing fruit in Australia. The idea has been around since the 1940s but, until now, never practical. Some trees have roots that reach deep underground, drawing up water and, along with it, tiny quantities of minerals that end up distributed throughout the tree. In this way, even lofty leaves bear traces of what lies far beneath. The quantities are minuscule. In areas where there is no gold, leaves may have a background level of 0.15 parts per billion (ppb) of gold; on gold-rich sites that can rise to 4ppb.

I've got a few Marmota (MEU) shares, they're not doing much.

Gold starting too look interesting now after a number of weeks of doing not much, keeping an eye on the chart for an orderly pullback to enter long.

Kryzz said:

Gold starting too look interesting now after a number of weeks of doing not much, keeping an eye on the chart for an orderly pullback to enter long.

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I am not sure if it has a pull back it would be a good entry point, it may just be failing to re-enter a twice failed 3-4 year old Ascending Triangle. A further rise on the other hand may be a safer option as an entry level. I feel this is at a juncture where great care needs to be taken. I could be quite wrong of course.

Ann said:

I am not sure if it has a pull back it would be a good entry point, it may just be failing to re-enter a twice failed 3-4 year old Ascending Triangle. A further rise on the other hand may be a safer option as an entry level. I feel this is at a juncture where great care needs to be taken. I could be quite wrong of course.

View attachment 95160

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Longer term sure, will only be looking for a short term trade if the opportunity presents. Mid 1300's has been a great place to short too.

POG generated a daily buy on the 29th May which does not look completed yet on the cycles system I use. Looking to add on the pullbacks here.
Weekly buy was generated in late Sep last year when cycle diferential crossed over, and it's basically been a case of being patient to wait for Weekly VF's to change direction from down to up. The latest one coincided with a nice alignment in the daily VF and Cycle differntial .
Suspect this will continue bullishly to about 1346 ( earlier resistance as well as point of 3rd std deviation of % percentage price chage from pink nominal level on both the daily and weekly charts)

Gold in AUD$ terms broke through $1900 last week - for the first time ever - and in USD$ terms crept close to $1350 resistance before closing out the week at $1340.
With no sign of US-China trade talks getting civilised there is a very good prospect $1350 falling next week, or at least soon thereafter.
How much momentum there is to keep climbing, I am not sure, and not optimistic. Given Brexit did sfa for gold's price, then it's next propeller might be quite ominous.
I was going to post this under Newcrest given it gapped from Friday week, but there seems inconsistent trends amongst Oz gold stocks, so this tide is not raising all ships it the same way.

Gold Giants Battling to Lure Back Investors Who Fled Industry

What’s better than GOLD?

In the wake of two mega-mergers that have reset the gold industry, one small detail has delighted Mark Bristow, Barrick Gold Corp.’s chief executive officer: His company’s ability to secure the rights to trade its stock under the ticker GOLD in New York.


Barrick and newly merged Newmont Goldcorp Corp. are in a race to lure back generalist investors who fled the gold sector years ago. While Newmont has the advantage of size -- it’s bigger by market capitalization and production -- having the ticker GOLD certainly can’t hurt in the fight for brand recognition. More...


Ref:

Let's look at this long, long term quarterly chart, incomplete until the end of this month.

Now I am seeing something on this ancient chart which also seems to be agreeing with the pundits. We are very close to strong overhead resistance lines on both the All Ords and the Dow and S&P500. This may be heralding a rise for gold if the markets have a decent dump. Gold did little during the recent downturn but let's see what we can see on my chart.

So far on the EOD Quarterly the old level hasn't been breached but we won't know that until the end of June. I am thinking another fall back but I could be very, very wrong this time folks.

Finally I can draw a long term rising support line which is almost in reach of the POG. If gold rises I can see a double top at around $1700 in the quarterly chart. Any fall back in the next few months will see that rising support line possibly adding support and confirmation of further rises if there is a bounce off it. Always like to see a rising support line it is an excellent indicator for a rise or fall.

Ann
How does a rising support
Line actually work.
Do you have any research papers on it
Or is this a theory of yours?

We can draw all sorts of lines on a past chart
To support / explain anything we want
Bowden was an expert!
But of course calling ahead as you have here
Will be interesting——never seen anything like this
Called 17 years later.

tech/a said:

But of course calling ahead as you have here
Will be interesting——never seen anything like this
Called 17 years later.

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I see you have lead a very sheltered life in that case Tech/a!

The time scale is irrelevant as a chart, is a chart, is a chart...
but I hope you have patience, it might take a year or two or even more to go anywhere near this rising support line as it is drawn on a quarterly chart and nothing happens any more frequently than once every three months. Gold may take off and leave this line buried under its dust and it may never be needed for support or it may take five years to be touched. Charts like these are for the very patient. I have been drawing this chart and calling it as it is seen for seven years.

Some of you may ask why did I start drawing the quarterly gold chart and not the monthly weekly or daily. When I chart something I look at all time scales and see if I can see something on one time scale which seems to tell me something more than any other time scale. This is what happened to gold. The quarterly began to form the very, very start of a rising megaphone. I just saw something (perhaps this is when the tea-leaves aspect of charting cuts in). I already had a close relationship with the POG as I had been charting it on a couple of major gold forums since around 2004/5. Kitco was the first gold forum I posted on when it was the wild west with just two threads, before it got moderated, over organized and became anal. Then I ran a site with Zed called Hardmoney which was an alternative for the old Kitco site, at the same time posting on Goldismoney. So as you folks can see I have had a close relationship with the POG for years, although it has been pretty mundane for many years, it only rated a glance for yet another quarter of nothing much in particular. Now with this support line I am now taking a touch more notice again. I think there is movement at the station folks!

Now back to the chart, the last previous place I could have drawn a rising support was the red line, that line was breached back in 2013, since then there have not been any touch points to guide a rising support line until now. The red line was the last available rising support I could have drawn until this current line. Will it hold? Will it fail? Will it be touched at all? Time will tell folks!



If Gold Was Just A Barbarous Relic...

There’s nothing new about the Russian accumulation of gold bullion in their reserve position. It began in a material way in 2009 when Russia had about 600 metric tonnes of gold.

Today, Russia has 2,183 metric tonnes, a stunning 264% increase in less than 10 years. Russia is the sixth-largest gold power in the world after the U.S., Germany, IMF, Italy and France.

Russia’s gold hoard is over 25% of the U.S. hoard, but Russia’s economy is only 8% the size of the U.S. economy. This gives Russia a gold-to-GDP ratio over three times that of the U.S.

While these developments are well-known, the question of why Russia is accumulating so much gold has never been answered. More...