Gold Price - Where is it heading?

young-gun · 2 June 2012

CanOz said:
Its this kind of doom and gloom that makes me think to take of my bear suit and change into the bull suit...

CanOz

hmm...I was actually looking at getting an even bigger bear suit my current, im not sure I will find one big enough that will do the current economic climate justice.

Gold is looking good. Up and away by the end of year i'd say.

explod · 3 June 2012

explod said:
Well numbercruncher, your pain has been relieved, in fact have a rest and stop pushing, you have AUD gold at $905 this morning. I think that's $100 in the last month or so. May be wrong about any correction, we have tremendous momentum now.

above posted 9th November 2007.

Aussie gold up more than $60 friday/sat, the moves are bigger these days.

Big drop in our dollar of course but $US index the one to watch this week. The recent pump in rhetoric could implode the index a long way this time. Of course the rise in gold only reflects the fall of all currencies in effect. So its just that great means to save your money. Where's Uncle Ben Banker?

But we shall see, back to sleep.

sinner · 3 June 2012

Since we all learned this month from SCM that CME rules the world and COMEX sets the global price of gold I thought I'd interrupt the regular transmission for a different chart.

I present, the
Starcraftmazer Annotated GCM12 Chart (SCMAGCM12C on your Bloomberg)

...

and we now return you to your regular transmission:

Starcraftmazter · 3 June 2012

sinner said:
Since we all learned this month from SCM that CME rules the world and COMEX sets the global price of gold I thought I'd interrupt the regular transmission for a different chart.

I don't see how they are related; the recent gold rise was as a result of poor economic data, not lowered margin requirements.

Though come to think of it, the timing is awfully coincidental

numbercruncher · 3 June 2012

explod said:
above posted 9th November 2007.

Aussie gold up more than $60 friday/sat, the moves are bigger these days.

Big drop in our dollar of course but $US index the one to watch this week. The recent pump in rhetoric could implode the index a long way this time. Of course the rise in gold only reflects the fall of all currencies in effect. So its just that great means to save your money. Where's Uncle Ben Banker?

But we shall see, back to sleep.

Haha well dug up explod

We could always trust the shiny stuff .....

numbercruncher · 5 June 2012

No link but you can google this ....

The Game-Changer

The Basel Committee of Bank supervision, who dream up the rules that govern banks, are looking at turning gold into a 'Tier One' asset.

This means the banks can carry gold as capital at 100% of its market value - instead of the current 50%.

This gives gold a huge increase in status, and effectively turns it back into money at the top level. It would also give the banks a strong reason to hold gold.

Consider that banks hold around $5 TRILLION in Tier One capital today.

Just 2.4% of this capital would absorb the ENTIRE annual output of annual gold mine production.

Starcraftmazter · 5 June 2012

numbercruncher said:
No link but you can google this ....

It's about time. It is a disgrace it has been at 50% - in reality, gold and silver are the only things that should even be allowed as tier 1 capital, since all else is completely worthless.

Gold to hit $2000 before end of year.

Joules MM1 · 5 June 2012

Durden:

The Hoarding Continues: China Purchases A Record 100 Tons Of Gold In April From Hong Kong

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/hoard...urchases-record-100-tons-gold-april-hong-kong

Mr Z · 6 June 2012

Anyone up for bottom picking?

Was it in @ ~1525?

Or is it ~ 1375 as the cycles guys have it?

I don't think we are done yet ... key events and the chart suggest ~1400 by the end of July to me.

Current thinking is we get a boost from a Euro bailout then we look for or confirm the bottom after Ben FAILS to deliver QE3 in June. I think QE3 will be a goer at the August FOMC, when they are REALLY bleating for it IMO. The USDX still looks to have legs.... if the above is true we could see USDX 88/9.... and a monthly close below ~ 84.5 would be as pretty as a picture IMO.

I hope we all have dry powder for the gold stock capitulation! I don't think we have seen it yet...

We are setting up for one almighty rally in gold shares... these things are close to wrung dry!

Hi ya peeps!

Starcraftmazter · 6 June 2012

Mr Z said:
Current thinking is we get a boost from a Euro bailout then we look for or confirm the bottom after Ben FAILS to deliver QE3 in June. I think QE3 will be a goer at the August FOMC, when they are REALLY bleating for it IMO. The USDX still looks to have legs.... if the above is true we could see USDX 88/9.... and a monthly close below ~ 84.5 would be as pretty as a picture IMO.

I don't disagree, one month of bad figures and everyone thinks QE3 is around the corner. I think it will happen later in the year than MSM/market expects.

It begs the question of what exactly is going to happen with gold meanwhile in the short/medium term - whether it will continue in this holding pattern until more bad data in July or whether it will have a short-term top and go down a bit before the final epic rally of the year.

explod · 6 June 2012

Gold is near to breaking out of a long pennant and nearing the next leg up.

The Greece bond problem (there's going to be a domino effect on others from there) by the looks will take it into that breakout to the next leg up soon IMV

We can expect that run on previous breakouts since 2001 to touch the US$2,300 area.

Loaded with NCM and NST Monday. In fact, because we have no sovereign risk NCM would have to be the safest goldie world wide in my view.

But gold in the hand is the tops.

Back to sleep.

Mr Z · 6 June 2012

$64 Q is how much Urope-peeing money wants gold

I suspect it will give us a bump but not legs....

USDX and Gold may sync up for a little bit (started already?)

If Ben disappointments that should stop it.

That gives us a window for a low 20/6 to 1/8... basically July sometime.

Numbers anyone?

Besides too many rabid goldbugs are calling a bottom... they are never good timers! Hell even GATA has published an article saying as much! LOL... now you watch two negatives make a positive, the bugs will win one now I have said that!

~1525 is it for now... until we prove otherwise... colour me skeptical.

Vat a verld! Yikes....

sinner · 6 June 2012

Mr Z said:
~1525 is it for now... until we prove otherwise... colour me skeptical.

Same, I hear Asian Central Banks had bids in the interbank around $1525 last week and the week before that. Until someone offers $1524 I'd say those bids are supporting the market whether they get filled or not.

Mr Z · 6 June 2012

Yes... flows to China are up... and from for that matter.

explod · 6 June 2012

Mr Z said:
Yes... flows to China are up... and from for that matter.

Not to sure about that, took in 900 tons last month and kept their own production.

Nice little rise toward the break on tonight.

Mr Z · 6 June 2012

When will you learn to "trust me"?

Hong Kong-China gold flow jumps 62% in April

SINGAPORE: Hong Kong’s gold shipments to mainland China in April jumped 62 percent to the second-highest level on record, while gold flow from China increased to an unprecedented level, official Hong Kong trade data showed on Monday. Hong Kong shipped out 101,768 kg of gold to mainland China in April, and received 34,368 kg from China, which brings the net exports to 67,400 kg, a surge of 77 percent on the month, according to the data

posted on the website of the government agency. (www.censtatd.gov.hk) Last November, a record 102,525 kg of gold arrived in China from Hong Kong, a gold trading hub and a main conduit for gold flow into China. Spot gold hit a record high of $1,920.30 last September, and prices then stabilised in March and April. “It could partly be caused by the levelling of volatility,” said Nick Trevethan, senior metals strategist at ANZ in

Singapore. “The first quarter looked to start strongly and it did, which might have encouraged people to book materials in response to a more stable price environment.” Several market participants recalled slow business in the physical market in April, and were unable to comment on why both gold imports and exports rose so strongly in the month. In the

first four months of the year, Hong Kong sent a total of 237,287 kg of gold to China, and received 70,688 kg from the mainland. On an annualised basis, net gold exports to China could reach nearly 500 tonnes in 2012, compared with last year’s 380 tonnes, according to Reuters calculations. China has overtaken India as the world’s top gold consumer in the past two quarters, with consumer gold demand in the first quarter of 2012 hitting a record high of 255.2 tonnes, said the World Gold Council. China does not publish gold trade data. China has not announced any change in its

official gold holdings in more than four years, although speculation that Beijing has been quietly accumulating gold has helped support gold prices. Gold slightly on Monday as losses on the wider financial markets prompted some selling after the metal’s biggest one-day price rise in over three years, but was supported by speculation the Federal Reserve could unveil a new round of monetary easing. Spot gold was down 0.2 percent at $1,621.64 an ounce at 1121 GMT. reuters

explod · 6 June 2012

Mr Z said:
When will you learn to "trust me"?

Thanks for posting that up.

But, have learnt to not trust anyone.

From my watching of the gold price in particular over the last ten years I reckon the bottom is in and the next burst up is nearly on us.

Logique · 6 June 2012

Mr Z said:
....key events and the chart suggest ~1400 by the end of July to me....

Will be interesting to watch, but I think 2000 more likely than 1400. Anyone know how to do polls.

Mr Z · 6 June 2012

Why is the bottom in?

Mr Z · 6 June 2012

Logique said:
Will be interesting to watch, but I think 2000 more likely than 1400. Anyone know how to do polls.

You have to start a new thread....

What 2000, in July?

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