Gold Price - Where is it heading?

Tysonboss1 said:

Well it says right under your avatar, I didn't really need to launch a royal commission.

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Anywhooooo.... Remember Amory and his rants about gold and the DOW? Funny, insane but funny.

He must be a little shocked that we printed 1900 POG... poor auld fella would have been apoplectic!

Mr Z said:

Anywhooooo.... Remember Amory and his rants about gold and the DOW? Funny, insane but funny.

He must be a little shocked that we printed 1900 POG... poor auld fella would have been apoplectic!

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can't say I do remember him, was he on this site.

Tysonboss1 said:

can't say I do remember him, was he on this site.

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I can't recall... after a while they all blur

You missed a treat, now he'd teach you how to bash gold properly!

He went by groolbasher when he was being less than subtle.

Tysonboss1 said:

Well it says right under your avatar, I didn't really need to launch a royal commission.

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Pedantic, nasty and detracting from the subject is a common problem.

If you approach your invetments in this way then I doubt that you are a successful inverstor at all.

Perhaps I should do some research on your profile and see what I can unearth.

But why bother.

gold and silver looking good.

explod said:

Pedantic, nasty and detracting from the subject is a common problem.

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What ever explod! how is it nasty. I even put a winky face after it. I am sure Mr Z did not take offence.

If he did then Mr Z I sincerely apoligise.

Maybe you didn't read the few threads leading up to that and you some how missed the context.

Tysonboss1 said:

I am sure Mr Z did not take offence.

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LOL Nah... this place is a cake walk. The gold forums in the early 2000's where the battle grounds! Man talk about full of professional bashers! There where some great posters as well but they have all but gone as we get into the second phase of this thing. The gold forums either seem to be run by Nazis or inhabited by full blown Goldbugs, they just give me the creeps!

My theory is that as time goes by people will understand less and less about why gold is a good investment and be buying more for the fact that it is going up. When the level of knowledge falls away to little or nothing then we are in over reach and due to crash. So far the average level of knowledge on the forums seems to have dropped markedly but not to the dot.com type levels. By then I suspect any company with gold in its name will be flying!

Oh what fun we are going to have trading the final phase of this thing!

We should all try to be courteous & respectful to all opinions, however lacking in detail. History will be the ultimate arbiter? This thread is littered with the carcases of gold bears - one day they will be right, but not because of a 'hunch'.

It could be a very interesting week next as several confluences of charting patterns emerge - equities must push through resistance and PM's should resolve their direction if you are of the opinion that the recent shakeout was due to CME induced profit taking?

The CME is market manipulation at it's finest! Dirty deeds done dirt cheap! Raise margins on PM's and other hard assets and lower margins on equities and money shuffling financials?

US banks are on the hook to the Euro's as they hold the insurance on their 'obligations'

Resolution is imminent?

So why do people think it is reasonable to attack Tysonboss directly? If Tysonboss disagrees that gold is a buy, surely the constructive action is to debate why it is or is not a good buy?
People here seem to be taking the bizarre and dogmatic line that opinions that differ from theirs are completed unreasonable - a line that is itself, completely unreasonable.

Mr Z is what one would call, 'a forum thug'.
The basic recipe to become a forum thug is as follows:
You make very big posts, and if someone comments on this, you claim they aren't intelligent enough to read the post. You make multiple consecutive posts, which gives the impression of greater size than just big posts alone. You substitute rational debate and good rebuttal with additional and unnecessaryformattingand UPPER CASE to appear bigger and more forceful (i.e. YELLING AGGRESSIVELY, a typical thug does not recognize calm intelligent discourse as legitimate, given that he could just use intimidation). You quickly resort to personal attacks as a substitute to debating the topic at hand, and as a substitute to actual defeating your opponents points with reason (the 'heresy' mentality).

I'd say Mr Z fits most of that, and perhaps it would be more prudent to simply refuse to read and reply to his posts.

tothemax6 said:

So why do people think it is reasonable to attack Tysonboss directly?

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TysonBoss refuses to acknowledge or understand leverage. Would you want to talk about leverage in the gold/silver market tothemax6?

There are plenty on this thread who are willing to do so.

Work it out for yourself.

My first reaction when I read an article on this site by Arnold Bock - articulating why gold would go to $10,000 – by 2012 no less - was amazement. Who in their right mind would suggest that gold would eventually reach $2,500, let alone $5,000 or even $10,000? Well, I did some investigation and, believe it or not, Bock is in lofty company. Many respected individuals, such as David Rosenberg, Peter Schiff, Harry Schultz, Rob McEwen and many others, have come to the same conclusion. Below is a partial list of such individuals with sound reasons to substantiate their views.

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article20533.html

tothemax6 said:

So why do people think it is reasonable to attack Tysonboss directly? If Tysonboss disagrees that gold is a buy, surely the constructive action is to debate why it is or is not a good buy?
People here seem to be taking the bizarre and dogmatic line that opinions that differ from theirs are completed unreasonable - a line that is itself, completely unreasonable.

Mr Z is what one would call, 'a forum thug'.
The basic recipe to become a forum thug is as follows:
You make very big posts, and if someone comments on this, you claim they aren't intelligent enough to read the post. You make multiple consecutive posts, which gives the impression of greater size than just big posts alone. You substitute rational debate and good rebuttal with additional and unnecessaryformattingand UPPER CASE to appear bigger and more forceful (i.e. YELLING AGGRESSIVELY, a typical thug does not recognize calm intelligent discourse as legitimate, given that he could just use intimidation). You quickly resort to personal attacks as a substitute to debating the topic at hand, and as a substitute to actual defeating your opponents points with reason (the 'heresy' mentality).

I'd say Mr Z fits most of that, and perhaps it would be more prudent to simply refuse to read and reply to his posts.

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Yeah... lets not debate anything and call anyone who disagrees a thug while the people we support are free to insinuate the rest of us are fools etc.

Please quote the posts where I have said that Tyson is anymore that he has first suggested others are, quote and link these 'attacks' you consider personal? I suggest you use a new thread for this purpose and leave this on on topic. Just how have I "beat up on him" aside from strenuously disagreeing with him and perhaps questioning his motive, as you tend to when someone lacks substance but maintains a dogma in their posting?

It seems to me, Mr Max, that your idea of freedom does not extend to speech, now that is irony Alanis!

If you feel aggrieved then report the posts and have the mods censor or ban me (regulation!) but don't take us off topic whining about me simply because you have little else to contribute.

Oh yeah--> additional and unnecessaryformattingand UPPER CASE to appear bigger and more forceful (i.e. YELLING AGGRESSIVELY, a typical thug does not recognize calm intelligent discourse as legitimate, given that he could just use intimidation). LOL --> its is called drawing attention to the main points in the post, in a long report (you do read that type of thing, no?) a call out or highlight may be used. Here I underline things and make them bold.

Just FYI.... ALL CAPS is considered yelling on the interweb (Clarkson humor, b4 U pounce!), that has been netiquette since the early 90's.

LOL.



Don't worry pet, I'm sure Tysonboss is OK and can stand on his own two feet.

GumbyLearner said:

TysonBoss refuses to acknowledge or understand leverage. Would you want to talk about leverage in the gold/silver market tothemax6?

There are plenty on this thread who are willing to do so.

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From earlier exchanges it seems evident that max also does not appreciate the power of unbacked leverage.

Used sensibly, there't nothing wrong with highlighting a few words especially when they are used in a manner that many would likely misread or misinterpret.

For example, "why did the chicken NOT cross the road?" seems reasonable, since many would miss the word "not" in a sentence that most have seen or heard a few hundred times at least.

Using abbreviations is another one to be careful of, especially where there are multiple meansings of the same term. ASX probably doesn't need a lot of explanation, but there's there's a rather long list of meanings for ACA, among which are the Australian Coal Association, Australian Consumers Association ("Choice") of course A Current Affair (TV program for any non-Aussies reading this).

Back on topic, we've thus far seen gold jump from $250 to not far short of $2000 (in round figures) and decent pullbacks are normal in a bull market. It's worth at least considering the propspect that those predicting $2500, $5000 etc may well be right as they don't represent unreasonable % rises from where we are today.

Mr Z said:

I dunno what you'd know mate! Maybe if you spent more time telling us we'd have a clue? Why the passive aggressive whine fest? Why not say what you actually think?

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3 recent brief posts - as you say, a fiesta of passive aggressiveness. OK I'll say what I think, tysonboss and tothemax6 are entitled to an opinion on gold. Also, I think it's fun winding you up

If you had taken the time to read back on this thread you would realize I'm anything but a gold bear.

Gold had a good run on flight to safety, but now returning to historical (up) trend as the $USD gains strength, and world markets gaining some optimism (for now anyway).

Logique said:

3 recent brief posts - as you say, a fiesta of passive aggressiveness. OK I'll say what I think, tysonboss and tothemax6 are entitled to an opinion on gold.

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Who said they where not? Just as I am allowed to appose it and or ask them to support it! BTW wasn't max a gold bull?

Logique said:

Also, I think it's fun winding you up

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LOL... wound up, no you have the wrong end of that stick mate. I'd not be making any assumptions on that front if I where you

Logique said:

If you had taken the time to read back on this thread you would realize I'm anything but a gold bear.

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If I had taken the time? A little assumptive isn't it? I full well realise that you lean toward the bull camp, but thanks for reminding the folks at home I razzed you a little because of the pointless posts you had been making of late, posts that did little more than infer dislike without taking any sort of solid position.

Logique said:

Gold had a good run on flight to safety, but now returning to historical (up) trend as the $USD gains strength, and world markets gaining some optimism (for now anyway).

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Is this a forecast? Are you expecting the USD and gold to rally together? If so what is the logic?

For my money we have just see a small carry trade unwind with the strengthening dollar (carry source) acting like a liquidity pump extracting liquidity from all leveraged markets that the hedgies etc are involved in. Note that the price of iron only move a little during this whole episode. Why? Because it is a bulk commodity that is not tradeable by hedge funds. Gold was one of the last to get hit because there was plenty of profit there, but in the end it was sold! That action was undertaken more by margin clerks than serious investors, those that needed to repay USD on a short time horizon to keep their funding source happy. My guess is that the leverage is all but gone now and that should keep a bid under most commodities and turn the USD south again as it is sold short in the process of carry trades going back on.

It is also interesting to note that should Ben be fixing to go QE III a "deflationary" episode would be a very handy thing, he can ride to the rescue and fight deflation at the same time the EU get around to monetizing debt. After all you can never have too much stimulus can you? We are going into an election year, things are on the down in the US and the Euronauts look like they are going to have to take action that will further weaken the Euro against the USD. Now that just can't happen, the dollar must stay weak to support trade (a flawed position I think but none the less, the prevailing logic) and we need to make happy for the election sooooooo lets man the inflation pumps again!!! but wait... we need an excuse... hmmmm QE II didn't work very well sooooo.... hmmmm, I know!!!!DEFLATION, lets go deflation fighting!



Look out for a deflation fighting Ben coming to a town near you soon!



Ain't life grand?

Three weeks ago, a series of questions were put to the Netherlands Central Bank, known as the Dutch National Bank. ZH carried the questions, and the response posed by the DNB today.

I thought this question and its answer were particularly pertinent to our discussion here on ASF:

8. What is in your opinion the present function of the gold stock?

DNB’s physical gold holdings function as the ultimate reserve and anchor of trust in times of financial crisis. Further, gold is being held for diversification reasons.

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So there we have it. The Central Bank of a productive nation include gold and recognise gold as the ultimate asset in the reserve pool which represent the nations savings and surplus productivity.

I wonder why the DNB holds useless assets like gold as ultimate on its reserve balance sheet, instead of say, BHP which is a business with a gold mine. Of course it might be as simple as the fact that shares in BHP do not in any world represent the savings of a person or nation, for example, shares in BHP couldn't settle the balance of trade between two countries whereas gold meets that function quite nicely. Recent events have shown that not even sovereign bonds can correctly settle the balance of trade between countries like Germany and Greece or China and the US.

Bank of Sinner is operating under the same model as the DNB, ECB, PBoC, House of Saud, etc. Productivity on sinners part results in a positive balance of trade between sinner and the rest of the world. Sinner stores some of his wealth in the form of sovereign currency, to settle payment for bills, taxes, cost of living with other entities such as business and government. Holding this currency in a bank is a loan to the bank in the exact same sense that the Bunds held by DNB are loans to the German Bundesbank. The remaining portion which represents surplus productivity is allocated to reserves in the form of physical gold bullion.

GumbyLearner said:

TysonBoss refuses to acknowledge or understand leverage. Would you want to talk about leverage in the gold/silver market tothemax6?

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Really? I though his main stance was something along the lines of 'gold is a silly investment compared to stocks because it produces nothing and has no yield'.

tothemax6 said:

Really? I though his main stance was something along the lines of 'gold is a silly investment compared to stocks because it produces nothing and has no yield'.

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Gold is not an investment, it's a method to protect your wealth against monetary supply expansion, and a tool to hedge against the collapse of fiat currency.

A view on Gold and gold shares from The Isle of Man: http://sharecrazy.com/beta/it_should_be_gold_fund/5966/it-dhould-be-gold-fund-september-2011

Technically the USDX looks read to rally short term. New highs? 81.xx ish? Support around 76.6x The 64$ Q is does gold gold with? or more pain? Gold 200DMA looks solid but that is $100 DOWN from here. I think we have to break POG $1700 to get clear of near term resistance. COT looking bullish but we could be range bound between 1550 and 1675 odd until we get some credible resolution of the current crisis.

Chop, chop!??

Computers trading computers on light liquidity here, all the people are nervous and have stepped back ---> I'm hearing this story from numerous sources both about stocks and futures generally. This market can and will melt up or down on any solid news, there is very little true liquidity here.

NYSE 85% High frequency trading! What a world! The cart is pulling the horse. Do we really need this or are we just killing a generation of investors? Does this seem right to you? They claim they provide liquidity, IMO for the most part that is an illusion. They certainly aid in driving extremes.