Gold Price - Where is it heading?

Edwood said:

lows taken out convincingly now. Hope Gummy Learner had some stops on his longs or hedges for his physical

Click to expand...

Disc
Still holding physical over 50% up since first purchased.
Still holding NCM at entry of $24. Still well up.
Bought and sold OGC short trade at a more than 40% profit last Friday.

After Obama's announcement about TARP last night, I wouldn't want to get caught short.

DYOR

GumbyLearner said:

Disc
Still holding physical over 50% up since first purchased.
Still holding NCM at entry of $24. Still well up.
Bought and sold OGC short trade at a 30% profit last Friday.

After Obama's announcement about TARP last night, I wouldn't want to get caught short.

DYOR

Click to expand...

cheers for the hindsight calls Gummy If Obama gave the go ahead does that mean you're adding here for your Xmas 1250?
still learning this trading thing, on your short trade do you mean you bought and sold OGC, or sold & bought?
any tips appreciated

Edwood said:

cheers for the hindsight calls Gummy If Obama gave the go ahead does that mean you're adding here for your Xmas 1250?
still learning this trading thing, on your short trade do you mean you bought and sold OGC, or sold & bought?
any tips appreciated

Click to expand...

I don't give tips. That is strictly against the code of conduct of ASF.
I only have opinions. What you invest in is your choice. I have been bullish on gold and have had read through this thread for many years now. I have seen many people crap on the well researched posts of ASFers like explod and Unc Festivus. My view of 1250 was pure guess work based on trend observance alas I was wrong.

I'm not a qualified investment advisor and a self-studied backyard economist at best. As Jim Rogers always says Ã'm the worlds worst trader. Well he knows a lot more than small investors such as myself.

So google these words Jim Rogers and inflation. He may be able to give you some insights.

Not a trader mate. Stocks are only a hobby. Like walking the dog or having a beer.

As always DYOR

don't worry Gumby I was taking the P re: tips, just wondered if you had any other gems after your 1250 call (not to say we can't still make it there mind!)

update on last nights trade, limit hit o.n 1145, +140 - always nice to wake up to

Here's Jim Rogers latest. Sounds like Jim is an even worse extremist than Barnaby Joyce. LOL

Interesting development the last few days, gold and the US$ going up in tandem. The two flights to safety perhaps, will be interesting to see which one falls off the perch first, the US dollar is pressing up against the down trend line.

Silver has always been a strong guide over the last 6 odd years to me, it has made a very big run up since the bottom of the October 08 crash, has stalled of late but showing new strength the last day or so. If it can break the old high of March 08, and its trend is certaily heading that way, it is then that gold will go to the US$1,500 that many have been pointing to. I think Gumby you will be on the mark IMHO

explod said:

Interesting development the last few days, gold and the US$ going up in tandem. The two flights to safety perhaps, will be interesting to see which one falls off the perch first, the US dollar is pressing up against the down trend line.

Silver has always been a strong guide over the last 6 odd years to me, it has made a very big run up since the bottom of the October 08 crash, has stalled of late but showing new strength the last day or so. If it can break the old high of March 08, and its trend is certaily heading that way, it is then that gold will go to the US$1,500 that many have been pointing to. I think Gumby you will be on the mark IMHO

Click to expand...

Can't see it no fundamentals to create boom in price and from an Elliott point of view looks like 5 down and 3 up certainly no impulse wave in the rally so would suggest more likely to go to below $9 in line with all commodities due to lack of liquidity in the system

joeyr46 said:

Can't see it no fundamentals to create boom in price and from an Elliott point of view looks like 5 down and 3 up certainly no impulse wave in the rally so would suggest more likely to go to below $9 in line with all commodities due to lack of liquidity in the system

Click to expand...

Do not agree, the trend is up if you look at the last 6 or seven years for gold. Elliot wave theory is fine over very long time frames but in my view very unreliable in the short term. Elliot wave theory usually follows (or is with) fundamentals if you have studied it well. Fundamentals have a cylce, referred to as the business cycle and average about eight years. However due to the size of the financial world today and the mounting difficulties of multiples of economies over the globe, the outcomes this time, are, to say the least very uncertain. In such times people will put their faith in tangible assets such as land or gold.

The US$ is fundamentally and technically in a downtrend and gold, due to huge investment buying, is in an uptrend. Why because paper money printing presses are turning it into trash.

explod said:

Do not agree, the trend is up if you look at the last 6 or seven years for gold. Elliot wave theory is fine over very long time frames but in my view very unreliable in the short term. Elliot wave theory usually follows (or is with) fundamentals if you have studied it well. Fundamentals have a cylce, referred to as the business cycle and average about eight years. However due to the size of the financial world today and the mounting difficulties of multiples of economies over the globe, the outcomes this time, are, to say the least very uncertain. In such times people will put their faith in tangible assets such as land or gold.

The US$ is fundamentally and technically in a downtrend and gold, due to huge investment buying, is in an uptrend. Why because paper money printing presses are turning it into trash.

Click to expand...

You have never studied Elliot wave Fundamentals play no part and it is the only discipline I have ever seen repeatedly call tops and bottoms totally against so called fundamentals. No it is not the holy grail and sometimes we read it wrong or at times it can have a few possible interpretations until they clear up in due course and show a clear way to label the waves as in the silver chart above. Absolutely no impulse wave in this last rally (since nov 08)
Time will tell but as Elliot is a contrary indicator as opposed to trend following quite happy for you to disagree

The US$ is fundamentally and technically in a downtrend and gold, due to huge investment buying, is in an uptrend. Why because paper money printing presses are turning it into trash.[/QUOTE]

Not so sure about fundamentally in a downtrend fewer dollars in the world surely means they are more valuable so should be in an uptrend The US is not printing money as fast as the credit is defaulting so there are less US $ not more IMHO
And as the US is moving into deflation due to excessive amounts of debt (Actually I think it has already passed the point of no return, rents being driven down at the moment (both commercial and Residential) and the stock market only rallied back (incidentally about where Elliot said it would rally to) and showing signs of topping, we can expect the US$ to be in an uptrend in fact depending on what you class as a trend the US$ bottomed in 08 rallied and retraced in a wave 2 move and while Gold moved higher the dollar didn't.
And the dollar is starting to move higher again (short term we should get a retracement before continuing higher.IMHO)

joeyr46 said:

You have never studied Elliot wave Fundamentals play no part and it is the only discipline I have ever seen repeatedly call tops and bottoms totally against so called fundamentals. No it is not the holy grail and sometimes we read it wrong or at times it can have a few possible interpretations until they clear up in due course and show a clear way to label the waves as in the silver chart above. Absolutely no impulse wave in this last rally (since nov 08)
Time will tell but as Elliot is a contrary indicator as opposed to trend following quite happy for you to disagree

Click to expand...

You may have missunderstood what I was saying. Fundamentals may not play a part but it is uncanny that it has been discovered that the Elliot Wave and fundmental based movements in markets more often than not run with each other. And I have read that in Elliot Wave theory texts, long time back now so could not readily dig it out now. It is why all the signals, charts etc need to be considered as a whole in ones approach. Not that I am any master of any, but try to keep a handle on as much as I can.

explod said:

You may have missunderstood what I was saying. Fundamentals may not play a part but it is uncanny that it has been discovered that the Elliot Wave and fundmental based movements in markets more often than not run with each other. And I have read that in Elliot Wave theory texts, long time back now so could not readily dig it out now. It is why all the signals, charts etc need to be considered as a whole in ones approach. Not that I am any master of any, but try to keep a handle on as much as I can.

Click to expand...

Can't remember a text like that but will agree Elliot Wave often picks a movement which turns out to be in line with fundamentals later on when fundamentals are known. Is this what you mean? And yes agree other signals charts etc need to be considered as well. Hope I'm not getting too agreeable LOL but still disagree on where Gold and Silver are heading

joeyr46 said:

Can't remember a text like that but will agree Elliot Wave often picks a movement which turns out to be in line with fundamentals later on when fundamentals are known. Is this what you mean? And yes agree other signals charts etc need to be considered as well. Hope I'm not getting too agreeable LOL but still disagree on where Gold and Silver are heading

Click to expand...

Yep, good to get back on topic, would be keen to know your time frame on gold, mine is medium to long term.

A good knowledge of fundamentals should anticipate market movements in advance of everything else. Of course we do not have such a crystal ball but my way is to try to understand the underlying strength or othewise of the market first and formost.

And a good mixture of agreement and disagreement is healthy debate.

Hourly Action In Gold From Trader Dan
Posted: Dec 18 2009 By: Dan Norcini Post Edited: December 18, 2009 at 3:31 pm

Filed under: Trader Dan Norcini

Dear CIGAs,

In remarks yesterday I mentioned that we would be watching to see at what point gold would shrug off its deleveraging carry trade pressure and begin trading as a safe haven asset of its own. It appears that we might have reached that point based on what I am seeing in today’s price action.

The Dollar is higher, particularly against the Euro (pressure is still coming from the Greece story) but gold was able to ignore that and attract buying on its own merits. That is particularly impressive given the sizeable down day yesterday for the yellow metal. One day does not a trend make however so we will need to see how the market reacts to all of this come next week.

The buyers showed up around the $1100 level and put up enough pressure to force some of the weaker shorts to cover. It could well be that the physical market sees value down here and if so, the shorts are going to have their work cut out for them.

Bonds, the safe haven asset of choice yesterday, were lower today as the schizophrenic trading continues.

About the Dollar, it is still working higher on good volume so one could argue from a technical perspective that it has a ways to run to the upside yet but because this time of the year is so tricky on account of book squaring and year-end positioning, I am hesitant to be too dogmatic about its prospects. Money gets slung around in the pits this time of year in large quantities with seemingly no meaning at times. That can generate some pretty good volume but the number has to be taken with some skepticism merely because it is related to closing out of positions on both sides.

Fundamentally, there is no reason to buy the Dollar unless you really believe that the Fed is going to raise interest rates (something which I personally do not) because you are faced with the hard reality of an ever increasing supply of the same versus reduced demand ( I noticed yesterday that the New York Fed custodial accounts is worrisomely closing in on the $THREE TRILLION mark). That bodes for lower prices for the greenback as economic law tends to be axiomatic about that sort of thing. Technically it looks much better on the weekly chart with both the 10 week and 20 week moving averages turning upwards and price above both. I will have to see a weekly close above the downtrending 40 week moving average near the 79.50 level before I would become friendly towards it for the short term. Long term it is going lower, much lower.

Interesting enough, there were several commodity markets that were higher today even with the Dollar moving higher besides gold. Silver and copper were both up. Crude oil was up and even the soybean market moved higher. Cattle too were up so the carry trade unwind slowed down quite a bit in today’s session. Next week is going to be even more unpredictable as the pits thin out considerably.

I still have my eye on the lumber market and nothing I see in that tells me that anyone is expecting homebuilding to go GA-GA anytime soon. After shooting higher on index fund buying and managed money plays for what seemed like a “cheap” commodity, it has given up a large portion of those gains. Until lumber prices begin a bullish trend, the economy cannot be said to be improving. It may have bottomed out but that is a long way from saying it is going to enter a period of strong growth. It seems to me like that market is telling us that we are going to head sideways for some time. One thing is for sure – based on this market (lumber), there is not going to be any “V” shaped recovery. Looks to me more like the letter “L”, where the thing collapsed and then moved along a bottom for some time. We’ll see.

The gold shares have stabilized near the 420 level on the HUI and some of the daily technical indicators are at their respective oversold thresholds which will tend to reinforce any move higher that can punch through overhead resistance. Chart-wise that means the HUI needs to climb back above the 455 level to generate a buy signal.

I want to again reiterate what I wrote yesterday – Be careful about reading too much into market action at this time of the year. For many traders, 2009 is now a thing of the past as they head to the exits to take some time off before the New Year comes around. Frankly the thought of what awaits us in 2010 is very disturbing. What shoe will drop next is the fear that haunts me. How long can the little boy with the finger in the dike hold back the flood of consequences? I wish we had political leaders who were true statesmen, willing to sacrifice their own personal gain for the long term economic health and prosperity of our nation, but alas, those few that exist can only sound the alarm at this point and hope that enough of their fellow citizens will rally to their cause to demand the right policies for the sake of their children and grandchildren’s future.

Many of us who believe in honest money and thus are advocates of gold are contemptuously dismissed and sneered at by the elites as “gold bugs”. Contrary to the image that they have spun into existence, I do not want to see the Dollar collapse and head into decline. No nation can ever be great and prosperous with a weak currency. Find an example in history in which that has been the case and I will cede the point. The truth is however that we are faced with certain realities, the least of which is a ruling crowd who seems determined to follow the same policies and practices that have led to the inevitable decline of any nation or kingdom which has implement them. To ignore these facts or pretend as if they do not exist is not the fruit of wisdom. Wisdom goes hand in hand with prudence and the prudent man seeks out a refuge during a time of crisis. For many of us, that place of refuge is the “barbarous relic” from a bygone age – gold. When we get leaders who implement policies that are sound then we can leave our place of refuge. Until then, we wait and watch.

From J S Minset. cheers explod

explod said:

Yep, good to get back on topic, would be keen to know your time frame on gold, mine is medium to long term.

A good knowledge of fundamentals should anticipate market movements in advance of everything else. Of course we do not have such a crystal ball but my way is to try to understand the underlying strength or othewise of the market first and formost.

And a good mixture of agreement and disagreement is healthy debate.

Click to expand...

Time frame 3mths to 24 mths


Fundamentals seem to be at the most bullish at the top and bearish at the bottom (at the time) I know it's not so, but it is hard to seperate truth from fiction or the real facts don't come out at the time.
Like the inflation deflation argument at the moment. are we printing more dollars (inflation providing the underlying debt does not default faster than the creation of dollars)or are we creating debt leading to more default and deflation.I personally think the latter and hence my current view on gold as cash will be king.
However if as things get worse and the fed (US) continue to try to fight with more dollars they may well (as normal for governments) go too far and Gold in the longer term will go to your US$1500 or possibly well above, but not before a retracement from this level first.
AUD gold price is a lot different as it depends on were our dollar goes down I think but not sure how far certainly a lot lower than here.
But will agree gold or silver are definitely a proper long term hold in physical were can be got at. History shows this is paramount to safety when things go wrong and governments behave increasingly in their own interests as they are at the moment



Agreed disagreement often brings out something one may have overlooked or not thought about in a certain way

joeyr46 Re: Gold Price - Where is it heading

Fundamentals seem to be at the most bullish at the top and bearish at the bottom (at the time) I know it's not so, but it is hard to seperate truth from fiction or the real facts don't come out at the time

Click to expand...

Depends on your take of the fundamentals. Those in the popular press are certainl;y most bullins at the top, IMHO but not the real dig in type if measured properly in my view.

I am not convinced the long term top for gold is in yet.

In fact on my trading account I still see no reason to exit paper gold longs on the daily (although we are getting close - if today can't close above 1123.5 I will exit longs on a break of todays low).

There are two main issues at play to me:

Bull: China is supposed to be buying the dips on the spot market. This might put a non-technical floor under the price.
Bear: We are replaying the 681-1000 rise all over again: too fast too soon. In an orderly move we would have tested the 993 zone already for support. But since we haven't, technically we should/could go back there. Sometimes technicals will play out over fundamentals.

To my eye, we are still in a demand zone on the weekly and the retrace to 1102 (roughly 25% of the current wave) was just to fill in the huge gaps created during the first 3 weeks of November.

I have presented a weekly chart with a few possible playouts, no guarantee from me it will play out, just food for thought.

Play out 1. Trendline, China buys the trendline.
Play out 2. Technicals, we touch the dotted blue line to test support.
Play out 3. Gold rush, RSI9 (plus green lines on chart) shows what happened last two times we crossed the 80 line in an uptrend.

interesting sinner - 993 would be nice. its all about the USD at the moment tho, has had a good run and looks ready to retrace a little which should be positive for gold. on that basis gone long XAU this morning 1091.6, stop at evens

Edwood said:

its all about the USD at the moment tho

Click to expand...

I disagree.