lolol GG was that a funny answer???? Gold for the last few yrs has continued its rise in Jan & Feb.
Sell in March if your looking at selling as thats when demand slows.
It will go down after Christmas when all the festivals around the world have finished. When the Indians and Chinese, who are the biggest users, slow down on buying it. It always does. I never chart gold.
You gold bugs aren't at all concerned about all of the commercials for gold on the TV? Just about every day I see an ad from that ABC mob, offering to buy / sell gold.
Looks rather toppish to me. One can only imagine how harshly gold would be decimated were the fed to actually raise ratesEven if they only raised them by a hairline; the change of sentiment in gold would be astronomical, in my opinion. A flood to the exit gates
I know, unthinkable, though - right?They'll of course be at 0 forever, and gold will hit 2k by mid 2010.
Nyden atm there is a massive influx of both selling scrap and buying bullion.
To me thow any worse news in economic data will push gold up as people now are looking for more safe havens.
Can you just imagine what will happen when everyone runs for the exits, and starts selling their gold on eBay - when no one even wants the stuff?
lol pure speculation, if you have been around the real market and talk to real people (not data) you would understand that gold has gone to another level in peoples mindset. Never before have i seen people who knew nothing on gold and were never holders of it now allocate a small slice of their portfolio into it for wealth preservation.
People have become wiser and understand that paper currencies can always be manipulated which in turn can create alot of crashes to come.
Gold will never ever be the outperforming asset but it will always be the safe haven 1 which most people are starting to see that hedging a small section of the pie is better that being fully exposed to massive growth (i.e shares/real estate).
Gold now is looking brighter than ever IMO
I would postulate that most current holders of gold are in fact 'weak hands'. Late comers trying to capture some of the glory.
if their debt is in yuan strong dollar means they pay less dollars to pay off debt
is it not so?
Pure speculation? That's exactly what gold is - a speculation. You talk as though it's wise to hold gold, and that the smart investors are the ones that are holding. That may very well be the case, but it might not be as well.
Gold has had these sorts of run ups in the past, as you know. I'm sure many people jumped on the band wagon back then as well - were they wise? Nope. Would've been hit for 50% of their money. What's worse, is that had they held on till now - they would be substantially worse off because of inflation. Even though gold is allegedly a hedge against such things?
Gold was $750USD in 1978-80 (somewhere thereabouts), and had you bought from any date after 78', and held on until 2002 you would have lost an absolute boat load. A 20 year down trend, wow. Protection against inflation? Maybe, if you can time it just right. Enough said
Heck, even if you bought gold in 76' for $150, it was 350 in 2000! A term deposit would have multiplied your money a whole lot more than that.
Gold a 'useless asset to own'
December 7, 2009 - 12:10PM, SMH
Gold’s best year in three decades has yet to match the returns of an interest-bearing checking account for anyone who bought the most malleable of metals coveted for at least 5000 years during the last peak in January 1980.
Investors who paid $US850 an ounce back then earned 44 per cent as gold reached a record $US1226.56 on December 3 in London. The Standard & Poor’s 500 stock index produced a 22-fold return with dividends reinvested, Treasuries rose 11-fold and cash in the average US checking account rose at least 92 per cent. On an inflation-adjusted basis, gold investors are still 79 per cent away from getting their money back.
“You give up a lot of return for the privilege of sleeping well at night,” said James Paulsen, chief investment strategist at Wells Capital Management in Minneapolis. “If the world falls into an abyss, gold could be a store of value. There is some merit in that, but you can end up holding too much gold waiting for the world to end. From my experience, the world has not ended yet.
[snip rest of article].......
Article in today's SMH making the same arguments as you Nyden!
http://www.smh.com.au/business/gold-a-useless-asset-to-own-20091207-ke07.html
I'm gold "agnostic" (hold a couple of miners though), but thought the above article was relevant to this discussion.
Cheers,
Beej
Ah, but the flip side is true as well. Throw in some good economic news - and what possible reasoning does anyone have to hold gold? As far as I'm concerned, it's a hedge against fear and disaster. When fear becomes hope, and confidence - and disaster starts to turn into recovery - why would there not be a huge shift into productive assets?
I would postulate that most current holders of gold are in fact 'weak hands'. Late comers trying to capture some of the glory. All it would take is a little bit of strength in the US to simply floor it.
Can you just imagine what will happen when everyone runs for the exits, and starts selling their gold on eBay - when no one even wants the stuff?
Nyden;516504 You talk as though it's wise to hold gold said:smart[/I] investors are the ones that are holding. That may very well be the case, but it might not be as well.
Nyden i said its wise to hold a "small allocation (10-20%)" of your portfolio to act as a hedge. But everyone has different views, i mean personally whats next best to say a massive debasment of our local currency if it were ever to occur? Gold. Will it ever happen? probably not but the last thing you want is to have tons of cash tied up and nothing covering yourself.
Look at Central Banks and Countries, why do they hold gold? i mean if its a useless investment why is India and China and Russia still stocking up on it??? is it because they know nothing and just enjoy wasting their spare cash??
Nyden like alot of investment classes gold has its place be it big or small.
All I'm saying, is that having 20% of my entire portfolio tied up in something that virtually did nothing for 30 years doesn't sound entirely appealing.
Governments hold it because, well - what else can they hold? Central Banks and Governments can't go around buying up 100s of billions of dollars worth of stocks, now can they?
All I'm saying, is that having 20% of my entire portfolio tied up in something that virtually did nothing for 30 years doesn't sound entirely appealing.
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