Gold Price - Where is it heading?

Re: GOLD Where is it heading?

ducati

More of the same from you!
The fact is that gold possessed an "intrinsic" value for thousands of years before "economic theory" came along with an arcane set of definitions of its own.

You and I will take different positions, or "cues" based on our different approaches, but it does not alter the title of this thread.

I contend, through an approach I have held for over 4 years now in relation to gold, that its price will continue to climb, and markedly higher than its present price.

I have a strong view that gold's next upleg will be relatively swift and strong and carry the gold price decisively over $600 before end June this year, and that further uplegs will see it at/near/over $700 by year's end.

You can pontificate over valuation theory till the cows come home, or sheep, or whatever else comes home where you are.

I make my position clear, with time frames, and am more than happy to wear the consequences of being wrong. There are some that think by being staunchly bullish means one will take a tumble if they are out by a country mile. I think that’s possible near a blow-off top, but there is no suggestion anywhere credible that gold is at a “blow-off top”.

Please come back and tell me when I am wrong.
In the meantime, if you want to get on topic, have a go at getting something down on the direction of gold.

Re: All aboard, gold is moving again!

globevestor said:

P.S. I think gold has entered the phase where charting has diminishing use because geo-political factors will lead, e.g. do not be surprised if gold move than $20 per day.

Click to expand...

Try the 15 minute chart

Re: GOLD Where is it heading?

rederob

The fact is that gold possessed an "intrinsic" value for thousands of years before "economic theory" came along with an arcane set of definitions of its own.

Click to expand...

The key word in your assertion is "possessed" as of course, once upon a time, gold was utilized as "money", and later, it was utilized as the physical guarantee behind "money"

But you see, those days are gone.
With the passing of the gold standard, so passed the reality of gold possessing an intrinsic value defined in the language of finance.

All that remains are the psychological and emotional "hooks" that still pass as an accurate description. You obviously are one of those emotional persons.
This is becoming increasingly obvious as your posts are filled not with logical argument, or factual data. In fact, you have already admitted that your valuation from an "intrinsic" perspective is based on something other than any financial understanding or definition.

So that we can agree to disagree (hopefully), I will continue to use the more widely understood definition of "intrinsic value" which has very little to do with economic theory.

Click to expand...

As the emotional hook in gold has worked ever deeper into your psyche, your posts towards any that hold an opposing view have tended towards the "personal". Some examples;

Why do namby pamby ducati types

I emailed ducati’s reply to a mining engineer I am in contact with and he’s probably still laughing. He wants to know if ducati is available to ferret around a few of his prospective tenements for a couple of years, or if he can just cheat and put something on the resource inventory that meets his theory about time frames and ability to replace reserves. He also said if ducati can get his hands on a drilling rig (better still a crew that has a clue), he can name his price.

Looks like ducati fell off his bike!

You can pontificate over valuation theory till the cows come home, or sheep, or whatever else comes home where you are.

Click to expand...

What makes it even more interesting from where I sit is that you seem to hold the expectation that this approach will elicit a valuation on the speculative content of gold.

Unfortunately your psychological skills are so rudimentary, as to be almost non-existent. Had you used alternate psychological tools, such as the Theory of Reciprocation I may very well have provided exactly what you are asking for, as to date I have found your analysis to be that of a novice, lacking in penetrative insight, factual data supporting the assertions.

In fact your valuation would seem to reside in a technical analysis, utilizing Elliot Wave. Technical analysis, is emotional analysis, and as far as I am concerned simply demonstrates your complete lack of analytical capability.

Therefore, until you can provide me with a "reason" as to why I should provide the research that I have completed, I shall simply refuse to do so, on the basis that your amateur hour psychology has not sufficiently demonstrated an understanding of the speculative forces at work in the POG.

Should you reconsider your position, I shall require an;
Apology, and
Price of gold in the following time periods;

1915 - 1920
1930 - 1940
1940 - 1950
1980 - 2006

jog on
d998

Re: GOLD Where is it heading?

ducati
I apologise.
I thought you had the balls to post your views on the future price of gold.
It is clear you prefer to play word games.
If you want to play word games with me, open another thread.
Otherwise our time can be spent on more satisfying pursuits, elsewhere, I would trust.

Re: GOLD Where is it heading?

rederob

Apology accepted.

I am more than happy to post an analysis on the "future speculative price" of gold. I'll play whatever games I wish, on whatever thread I choose. You see that being a "public forum" people have the choice of propagating whatever viewpoint or opinion they wish.

If anyone can provide the prices of gold, or point me in a direction of the data, then I shall provide the analytical framework that may suggest a mechanism by which the "speculative price" can be estimated.

1915 - 1920
1930 - 1940
1940 - 1950
1970 - 2005

jog on
d998

Re: GOLD Where is it heading?

ducati916 said:

rederob
If anyone can provide the prices of gold, or point me in a direction of the data, then I shall provide the analytical framework that may suggest a mechanism by which the "speculative price" can be estimated.

1915 - 1920
1930 - 1940
1940 - 1950
1970 - 2005

Click to expand...

ducati
In which currency do you want to work?
US dollars have most data.
You would be aware that a "gold standard" existed during many of these periods.
Application of the standard differed between nations and time periods. For example, from 1865 to mid 1920s a Latin Monetary Union existed between France, Italy, Belgium, Switzerland, and later Greece: Gold and silver coins of each country were legal tender throughout the union. A Scandinavian Monetary Union existed for a roughly similar period, but it was based solely on a gold standard.
The advent of WWI led to Britain withdrawing gold from circulation and a de facto cessation to their gold standard.
After the war, in 1924 Germany adopts the Reichsmark and returns to the gold standard (the Reichsmark, replaced the Rentenmark, with a value equivalent to the pre-war gold mark). A year later Britain does the same, and so to does France in 1928.
By the way, the US had a de facto gold standard as a result of their Coinage Act of 1873 until Keynesian economics intervened from 1933. President Roosevelt, despite an election pledge to maintain the gold standard issued an order forbidding banks to make gold payments on March 11, 1933: No person could hold more than $100 in gold coins, except for collector’s coins. He also made it unlawful to export gold for payment abroad, unless done through the Treasury (the penalty for defying Roosevelt was 10 years in prison and a $250,000 fine). On Jan. 30, 1934 Roosevelt signed the Gold Reserve Act into law, transferring title of the Federal Reserve Banks’ deposits of gold to the U.S. Treasury. The next day Roosevelt reduced the gold content of the dollar by 41 percent, raising the price of gold from $20.67 per ounce to $35.00 an ounce.
France and the USA were the largest gold holders in the 1930s but by 1936 France realised it was not good politics to maintain a gold standard.
From 1946 to 1971 the Bretton Woods system was in place amongst signatory nations and this pegged gold at $35/ounce while at the same time making the US dollar the world’s reserve currency. Nixon abolished the gold standard when he realized the US could not actually pay in gold the value of the reserve currency in its printed quantity – a matter quickly realized when in the second week of August 1971, the British ambassador turned up at the Treasury Department to request that $3 billion be converted into gold. ….and then the French, and then who else?
So in 1971 the last link between Gold and the Dollar had gone, and the result inevitable: In February 1973, the world's currencies "floated". By the end of 1974, Gold had soared from $35 to $195 an ounce.
On January 1, 1975 it again became "legal" for US citizens to again own gold. The U.S. Treasury in particular and many other Central Banks sold large quantities of gold in anticipation, making massive paper profits in the process. The move depressed the price of gold, which fell to US$103 in eighteen months.
Gold regained its ($195) December 1974 level by July 1978, hitting subsequently more highs; $250 in February 1979; $300 in July; and soaring from $381 on Nov. 1, 1979 to $850 on Jan. 21, 1980 before crashing and burning for the next 20 years.
You can easily find gold charts for this latter period: I prefer the ease of navigating through Kitco:
http://www.kitco.com/charts/historicalgold.html

Re: GOLD Where is it heading?

Gold is going to about 580 and might then retrace for a month or two, but not go down less that 530. It will be 650 by the end of the year and 2000+ in five years.

http://kontentkonsult.com/blog/2006/02/goldbugs_might_be_right.html

Re: GOLD Where is it heading?

rederob

Unfortunately the link provided is password protected.
Never mind I shall do it the longhand old fashioned way.

In which currency do you want to work?
US dollars have most data.
You would be aware that a "gold standard" existed during many of these periods.

Click to expand...

Yes, US dollars.
Regarding the gold standard, yes that was indeed my "assumption", the problem with assumptions of course is that they can often drop you in the deep end, so until confirming that there were no speculative anomalies, I prefer not to assume a $35.00 gold standard price.

So in 1971 the last link between Gold and the Dollar had gone, and the result inevitable: In February 1973, the world's currencies "floated". By the end of 1974, Gold had soared from $35 to $195 an ounce.
On January 1, 1975 it again became "legal" for US citizens to again own gold. The U.S. Treasury in particular and many other Central Banks sold large quantities of gold in anticipation, making massive paper profits in the process. The move depressed the price of gold, which fell to US$103 in eighteen months.
Gold regained its ($195) December 1974 level by July 1978, hitting subsequently more highs; $250 in February 1979; $300 in July; and soaring from $381 on Nov. 1, 1979 to $850 on Jan. 21, 1980 before crashing and burning for the next 20 years.
You can easily find gold charts for this latter period: I prefer the ease of navigating through Kitco:

Click to expand...

But this is enough to be going on with.
jog on
d998

Re: GOLD Where is it heading?

ducati
The link should not be password protected - try Kitco.com and then link to their historical charts if that is easier.

Re: GOLD Where is it heading?

As a starting point, although we are not specifically going to calculate a "price" for gold, as how do you calculate a speculation, we can calculate the economic factors around gold, and "back into a valuation". Thus as a first step it would be useful to establish are we in point of fact dealing with a speculative bubble?

Or, is the present price of gold supported by the utility value of gold, and that this represents a strong and sustainable trend into the future.

The "Price" of gold will to an extent be determined by supply and demand.

Supply will = existing gold + produced gold
Demand will = utility demand + speculative demand

Let us first examine produced gold from an industry standpoint;

Industry Statistics
Market Capitalization:........................................... 182B
Price / Earnings: ...................................................38.9
Price / Book: ........................................................3.4
Net Profit Margin (mrq):........................................ 11.4%
Price To Free Cash Flow (mrq):.............................. -67.7
Return on Equity:................................................. 8.9%
Total Debt / Equity:.............................................. 0.0
Dividend Yield:..................................................... 0.9%

Leaders in PEG Ratio........................................ (ttm, 5yr expected)
KINROSS GOLD CP [KGC] ...................................... 12.38
ROYAL GOLD INC [RGLD] ........................................8.74
AGNICO EAGLE MINES [AEM] .................................. 5.95
GOLDEN STAR RES LTD [GSS] ................................ 5.23
BARRICK GOLD CP [ABX] .......................................2.49
MERIDIAN GOLD INC. [MDG] .................................. 1.77
ANGLOGOLD ASHANTI LT [AU]............................... 1.73
IAMGOLD CORPORATION [IAG] ............................... 1.65
RIO TINTO PLC ADS [RTP] .................................... 1.23
NEWMONT MIN CP (HLDG [NEM]............................ 1.22


Laggards in PEG Ratio..................................... (ttm, 5yr expected)
COMPANIA MIN BUEN [BVN]................................... 0.47
GLAMIS GOLD LMT [GLG] ....................................... 0.57
GOLDCORP INC [GG] ............................................. 0.62
HARMONY GOLD MNG A [HMY]............................... 1.10
GOLD FIELDS LTD ADS [GFI] .................................. 1.15
NEWMONT MIN CP (HLDG [NEM] ............................. 1.22
RIO TINTO PLC ADS [RTP].................................... 1.23
IAMGOLD CORPORATION [IAG].............................. 1.65
ANGLOGOLD ASHANTI LT [AU] .............................. 1.73
MERIDIAN GOLD INC. [MDG] ................................. 1.77

Re: GOLD Where is it heading?

What becomes apparent is that the growth in earnings, from the producers despite the high price, are not keeping apace with the stock price.

This tells us two things;
1...The Producers were caught off balance by the surge in demand.
2...They have not yet caught up demand via increased production.

This is important in that the Producers, the industry experts, and the latest information via their order books did not anticipate the surge in demand.
This suggests that the large surge in demand is of a speculative nature.
With any surge in speculative price, the longer term trend is less stable and less predictable, and subject to very quick changes in sentiment.

The second point is also important in that should production increase to take advantage of the current high prices, supply will increase, thus providing a dampening effect upon the market price.

Leaders in Long-Term Growth Rate......................................... (5 yr)
ELDORADO GOLD CORP [EGO]............................................. 100.00%
GLAMIS GOLD LMT [GLG] .................................................... 66.00%
GOLDCORP INC [GG] ..........................................................54.70%
NEWMONT MIN CP (HLDG [NEM].......................................... 50.00%
IAMGOLD CORPORATION [IAG] ............................................38.80%
HARMONY GOLD MNG A [HMY]............................................. 34.00%
GOLD FIELDS LTD ADS [GFI] ............................................... 30.50%
COMPANIA MIN BUEN [BVN] ................................................ 26.90%
MERIDIAN GOLD INC. [MDG] ................................................ 21.50%
ANGLOGOLD ASHANTI LT [AU] ............................................. 17.40%


Laggards in Long-Term Growth Rate ........................................(5 yr)
KINROSS GOLD CP [KGC] ..................................................... 5.00%
ROYAL GOLD INC [RGLD] ..................................................... 5.00%
GOLDEN STAR RES LTD [GSS]............................................ 10.00%
BEMA GOLD CP [BGO] ....................................................... 10.00%
AGNICO EAGLE MINES [AEM] ............................................. 10.00%
BARRICK GOLD CP [ABX] ................................................... 10.00%
RIO TINTO PLC ADS [RTP] ................................................ 11.50%
ANGLOGOLD ASHANTI LT [AU] ........................................... 17.40%
MERIDIAN GOLD INC. [MDG]............................................... 21.50%
COMPANIA MIN BUEN [BVN] ............................................... 26.90%


Long term growth rates in mature industries, tend to follow economic growth, which of course will vary upon the maturity of the country.
The US growth rate is approximately 3.5%
Lets say China & India, both expanding over the last 2/3 yrs, but expected to slow, lets be generous and say 10%

The absolute laggards in the gold industry are showing 5% growth.
The highfliers, are showing up to 100%
Companies with earnings growing at 15% are considered exceptional growth stocks.

Having established that in all probability the growth has been generated via high price received, and not the usual combination of production + price, we can suggest that prices are far exceeding utility pricing and have entered into speculative or bubble territory.

Leaders in Net Profit Margin ..............................................(mrq)
TASEKO MINES LTD [TGB] ............................................... 73.30%
PACIFIC RIM MINING [PMU] .............................................. 70.56%
COMPANIA MIN BUEN [BVN] .............................................. 50.81%
ROYAL GOLD INC [RGLD] .................................................. 38.38%
GOLDEN STAR RES LTD [GSS].......................................... 34.16%
YAMANA GOLD INC [AUY] ................................................ 30.20%
RIO TINTO PLC ADS [RTP] ............................................... 29.43%
GOLDCORP INC [GG]....................................................... 27.75%
GLAMIS GOLD LMT [GLG] ................................................ 21.36%
LIHIR GOLD LTD ADR [LIHRY] .......................................... 18.67%


Laggards in Net Profit Margin .............................................(mrq)
MIRAMAR MINING CP [MNG] .......................................... -251.84%
ATLAS MINING CO [ALMI.OB] ........................................ -175.56%
NOVAGOLD RESOURCES I [NG] ...................................... -168.13%
CRYSTALLEX INTL CP [KRY] ......................................... -147.27%
AMERICAN PETROLEUM [AMPE.OB]................................ -111.52%
BEMA GOLD CP [BGO] .................................................. -91.63%
NEW JERSEY MINING COMPANY [NJMC.OB] ...................... -74.98%
ELDORADO GOLD CORP [EGO] ....................................... -70.96%
CANYON RESOURCE NEW [CAU].................................... -66.88%
APOLLO GOLD CORP CDA [AGT] ..................................... -66.60%

Examination of Net Profit margins again suggests abnormal profit margins for a commodity based business.

High Net Profit margins can be generated by high operating leverage.
However, the industry as a whole is running a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.00
We can assume that on this basis, the net profits are price based.

Leaders in Long-Term Debt/Equity.......................................... (mrq)
TASEKO MINES LTD [TGB] ..................................................... 0.92
BEMA GOLD CP [BGO] ........................................................... 0.84
DESERT MINING [DSRM.OB] ................................................... 0.71
ABERDENE MINES LTD [ABRM.OB] ........................................... 0.69
ANGLOGOLD ASHANTI LT [AU] ............................................... 0.65
CRYSTALLEX INTL CP [KRY].................................................. 0.63
YAMANA GOLD INC [AUY] ..................................................... 0.50
BARRICK GOLD CP [ABX] ...................................................... 0.46
CUBIC ENERGY INC [QBIK.OB] ............................................... 0.40
LEXINGTON RESOURCES [LXRS.OB]........................................ 0.35


Laggards in Long-Term Debt/Equity........................................ (mrq)
DESERT SUN MINING CO [DEZ] .............................................. 0.01
IAMGOLD CORPORATION [IAG]............................................... 0.02
NEW JERSEY MINING COMPANY [NJMC.OB] .............................. 0.04
GAMMON LAKE RES LTD [GRS] .............................................. 0.05
GOLD FIELDS LTD ADS [GFI] ................................................ 0.06
NORTHGATE MINERALS L [NXG] ............................................ 0.08
HARMONY GOLD MNG A [HMY] .............................................. 0.11
CANYON RESOURCE NEW [CAU] ............................................ 0.12
KINROSS GOLD CP [KGC] ..................................................... 0.12
CAMBIOR INC [CBJ] ............................................................ 0.12


In summary, I suggest that the current price of gold is speculative in nature, and has entered bubble territory. Ultimately, it will burst and fall back to earth
However before that happens, it may very well rise much higher.

Safe to say, should you still want exposure to the gold sector, buying producers is probably not the best way forward.

In the second part of the calculation we shall examine price of gold the commodity, and back into a valuation, and a timeframe for that valuation.

jog on
d998

Re: GOLD Where is it heading?

ducati
While your analysis is useful for US-based investments, it does nothing for most readers of this site based in Australia (possibly even NZ).
A major issue with the US equity market compared to ours is the comparatively high PEs, and this trend relates to most industry sectors.
Another issue with your analysis is that had you done it for each of the last 3 years, you may have come to the same conclusion, viz that gold has entered bubble territory.
I have no doubt that at some point in time a huge speculative bubble will burst, and the gold price will revert to historical norms over a period of years, as the commodity cycle simply repeats itself.
But at this point there are two important questions. First, what will be the “launching price” as this will approximate the longer term landing price?
Secondly, how far away are we from the “bubble”?
Your statement, "Safe to say, should you still want exposure to the gold sector, buying producers is probably not the best way forward", could well be true for the US market. It is unlikely to be true for Australian producers that are unhedged and have low cash costs: In other words, those producers already making over US$200/ounce and exposed to continuing high/er prices.
However, the greatest weakness of gross analysis is that it does not tell you where a specific company is at with its mine. And this is where an understanding of gold mining per se is vital. For example, a producer may have spent the last 2 years reaching its high value seams (reserves), thereby becoming capable of multiplying many times the average annual output of those prior years. Or, it may have added new processing equipment or techniques to enable to significantly increase output over prior years but with minimal extra cost per ounce.
There is a multitude of other factors that must be considered when wisely choosing to put money into a gold mining equity, and future gold prices become relevant only to the extent that they may decline and affect your bottom line.
Prudent selection of equities can markedly mitigate potential downside risks.
I have however drifted from the thread heading, and apologise.

Re: GOLD Where is it heading?

rederob

While your analysis is useful for US-based investments, it does nothing for most readers of this site based in Australia (possibly even NZ).
A major issue with the US equity market compared to ours is the comparatively high PEs, and this trend relates to most industry sectors.
Another issue with your analysis is that had you done it for each of the last 3 years, you may have come to the same conclusion, viz that gold has entered bubble territory.

Click to expand...

The initial analysis is simply to establish whether the POG has entered the arena of gross speculation. By looking at the general industry I simply wished to establish that the suggestion of a bubble in the POG was reasonable.

As I trade/invest in the US, that is where my interest lies.
However for the POG this fact will not detract overmuch from the second part of the analysis, and the original request which was a "forcast" of a "future" price towards the end of the year.

I have no doubt that at some point in time a huge speculative bubble will burst, and the gold price will revert to historical norms over a period of years, as the commodity cycle simply repeats itself.
But at this point there are two important questions. First, what will be the “launching price” as this will approximate the longer term landing price?
Secondly, how far away are we from the “bubble”?

Click to expand...

I would say that the POG is already in bubble territory.
How much higher, how much longer is the focus of part two.

However, the greatest weakness of gross analysis is that it does not tell you where a specific company is at with its mine. And this is where an understanding of gold mining per se is vital.

Click to expand...

For a specific mine, or business, I would analyze the individual company.
While an understanding of gold mining would be useful, an understanding of financial statements is more so. Contrasting the individual within its industry is always illuminating.

There is a multitude of other factors that must be considered when wisely choosing to put money into a gold mining equity, and future gold prices become relevant only to the extent that they may decline and affect your bottom line.
Prudent selection of equities can markedly mitigate potential downside risks.
I have however drifted from the thread heading, and apologise.

Click to expand...

As noted, the objective is not to value an individual stock, which is a relatively simple matter, but to place a price on a highly speculative commodity, that has already entered bubble territory

jog on
d998

Re: GOLD Where is it heading?

With any bubble, there must always be in support, an underlying psychological or emotional justification.

In the 1925 -1929 bull market, the belief in the New Era.
Almost unbelievably, the New Era returned in 1995 - 2000
Gannists would have fun with the dates.
Property bubbles rest on..........property always rises in the long term.

What then is the underpinning psychology for the recurrent boom/bust in gold
It is............"gold is an inflation hedge"
On the surface, as all these emotional justifications must be, it seems reasonable, and thus, if I buy gold at $550, I am making a rational investment decision.

year ..........................................value of one ounce of gold
2006........................................................$520
2000....................................................... $272
1995 .......................................................$386
1990 .......................................................$424
1985....................................................... $354
1980 .......................................................$641
1975....................................................... $151
1970....................................................... $38
1965 .......................................................$36
1960....................................................... $37
1955....................................................... $35
1950 .......................................................$40
1945 .......................................................$37
1940 .......................................................$35
1935....................................................... $35
1930 .......................................................$21
1925....................................................... $21
1920....................................................... $21
1915 .......................................................$21
1910....................................................... $21
1905....................................................... $21
1900....................................................... $21
1895....................................................... $21
1890....................................................... $21
1885....................................................... $21
1880....................................................... $21
1875 .......................................................$23
1870 .......................................................$23
1865....................................................... $30
1860....................................................... $21
1855....................................................... $21
1850 .......................................................$21
1845....................................................... $21
1840....................................................... $21
1835....................................................... $19
1830....................................................... $19
1825....................................................... $19
1820....................................................... $22
1815....................................................... $22
1810 .......................................................$19
1805....................................................... $19
1800 .......................................................$19

Re: GOLD Where is it heading?

We would now need to look at the data for inflation, over the same time periods.

1901................................................(-2%)
1902................................................6%
1903................................................1%
1904................................................0%
1905................................................1%......5yr..........1.2%

1906................................................3%
1907................................................6%
1908................................................(-4%)
1909................................................8%
1910................................................4%.......5yr.......3.4%

1911................................................(-8%)
1912................................................7%
1913................................................3%
1914................................................1%
1915................................................1%......5yr......0.8%

1916................................................8%
1917................................................17%
1918................................................18%
1919................................................15%
1920................................................16%.......5yr.....14.8%

1921..............................................(-11%)
1922..............................................(-6%)
1923..............................................2%
1924..............................................0%
1925..............................................2%.......5yr.....(-2.6%)

Re: GOLD Where is it heading?

So examining the earlier periods, does the data suggest that Gold was an effective hedge in periods of low, moderate & high inflation.
Ignoring for a moment the "reasons" that it may or may not have been.

Gold 5yr Average

1925.............................................. ......... $21
1920.............................................. ......... $21
1915 .................................................. .....$21
1910.............................................. ......... $21
1905.............................................. ......... $21


Inflation 5yr Average

1905.......................................................1.2%
1910.......................................................3.4%
1915.......................................................0.8%
1920.......................................................14.8%
1925.......................................................(-2.6%)

I think we can safely suggest that "for whatever reasons" gold was not an inflation hedge in this particular time period.
We shall examine more "relevant" periods to establish the verity, or falsity of our assertion.

jog on
d998

Re: GOLD Where is it heading?

ducati916 said:

property always rises in the long term.

Click to expand...

i beg to differ

if u agree that property=land

tokyo land prices have fallen 80% off their highs in 1990. They fell for 15 years straight, until about november 2005.

(sorry for off-topic)

Re: GOLD Where is it heading?

nizar said:

i beg to differ

if u agree that property=land

tokyo land prices have fallen 80% off their highs in 1990. They fell for 15 years straight, until about november 2005.

(sorry for off-topic)

Click to expand...

Indeed. We also need to look a tad further back, sans the influense of the baby boom.

Re: GOLD Where is it heading?

nizar

I think you need to go back and re-read the original post.

With any bubble, there must always be in support, an underlying psychological or emotional justification.

Click to expand...

And for this psychological support in a bubble........in this case a property bubble;

In the 1925 -1929 bull market, the belief in the New Era.
Almost unbelievably, the New Era returned in 1995 - 2000
Gannists would have fun with the dates.
Property bubbles rest on..........property always rises in the long term.

Click to expand...

jog on
d998

Re: GOLD Where is it heading?

1926 - 1931...........................(-3%)
1932 - 1937...........................(-1%)
1938 - 1943...........................+2.8%
1944 - 1949...........................+6.8%
1950 - 1955...........................+2.6%
1956 - 1961...........................+2.0%
1962 - 1967...........................+1.6%
1968 - 1973...........................+4.4%
1974 - 1979...........................+8.2%
1980 - 1985...........................+7.2%
1986 - 1991...........................+4.0%
1992 - 1997...........................+3.0%
1998 - 2003...........................+2.4%
2004 -............................................