Gold Price - Where is it heading?

trtkjd1 said:

Glad your portfolio is green mine was for about an hour now its awash with red ink, i still can reason why when the price of gold goes up and the market falls it takes gold along with it. you would reason that it should at least hold steady.

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Margin call, forced liquidation of portfolio. Everything has to be sold regardless when stuff like this happens.

Junior gold producers and/or gold ETFs/ETCs are more immune to such forced liquidation due to margin calls.

howdy guys.
Well gold is on the rampage at the mom.
Once it broke the 960 area with volume it is now a cert that $1000 is not far away now.
March will be a great month for gold and i hope that gold stocks start the next legt up.

$974....god it feels great to see this unfold!!!

nice weekend to all cu monday

p.s i use www.thebulliondesk.com damn fine site...give it a go.

Muschu said:

And, for the novice, where is/are the better/best places to buy into gold please?

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The ASX code is GOLD.
http://markets.theage.com.au/apps/qt/quote.ac?code=gold&section=summary

On a theory once discussed it was silver at $22 that signalled the next phase , saw it at $19 the other night , thought it might have been a mirage where I was ..... , but chit it's pooped into $20 and this is the door wobbler .

Must be close , it is kind of eurphoric to witness the run up , but I hate to think how much grains will be when it gets up to breach $1800 , doesn't worry me at all about the cornflakes , only 6% of the input there is product , but it's got to hit elsewhere too ..........

When the US credit cards debt starts imploding , only the numbers will save the institutions , not the transactions . The transactions will have to be repaid eventually , some may manage to stay broke forever and get away with it , but forever is a long time .


Not all good , so make hay whilst the sunshines , methinks it could be needed .

In times of all this economic uncertainty and the downfall of shares, gold seems to be making new highs... I was wondering if shares in gold companies is a good choice or better to go straight to the source? reasons of thought would be much appreciated

ShareIt said:

In times of all this economic uncertainty and the downfall of shares, gold seems to be making new highs... I was wondering if shares in gold companies is a good choice or better to go straight to the source? reasons of thought would be much appreciated

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This was discussed about 300 pages ago, but in summary I think the conclusion was that gold stocks would suffer like the rest of the market, before then outperforming in line with gold. When that starts to occur, we will have to wait to find out. Most 'majors' (eg LGL, NCM) are still under their all time highs due to market crumbling while POGs gone parabolic.

Gold output fails to match price surge

RECORD gold prices have yet to prompt a production boost in Australia. A survey of local production by Melbourne-based Surbiton Associates showed Australian output for 2007 was near steady at 248 tonnes worth $A6.6 billion at an average of $A830 an ounce.

Gold prices have since hit $A1040 an ounce ”” a level that if held for the rest of 2008, could boost annual revenue by 25% to $A8.3 billion, assuming another year of near steady production.

The boost would be higher still if not for the revenue-sapping effects of the stronger dollar.

The survey, released yesterday, showed Australian gold production was 63 tonnes (2 million ounces) in the December (2007) quarter.
That was 3% higher than the preceding September (2007) quarter but down 4% on the December (2006) quarter.

For the 2007 calendar year, output was 248 tonnes, down by one tonne on 2006.

Surbiton director Sandra Close said there had been a substantial rise in the gold price in the past two years, with the annual average price rising from $A585 an ounce in 2005 to $A830 in 2007.

During 2007, the Australian gold price rose to a high of $A954.60 an ounce on December 28.

The $A1000-an-ounce milestone was reached on January 10 this year, and a record $A1042 an ounce was set on January 29. Gold was last at about $A1040 an ounce. Dr Close said that while a US-dollar price of $US1000 an ounce ($A1068) was widely expected, the strengthening of the Australian dollar had halted the upward trend of the gold price in Australian-dollar terms.

The final global rankings for 2007 production are not complete, although Surbiton has flagged the potential for China to have overtaken the beleaguered South African industry as the largest producer, with Australia continuing in third position.

Dr Close said that according to the China Gold Association, China's gold production totalled 270.5 tonnes in 2007. Official 2007 figures for South Africa are expected to be similar, but are not yet available from the Chamber of Mines.

"As well as the generally accepted factors which influence the price of gold, recent developments in the two largest gold-producing countries are expected to support the current upward pressure on the gold price," Dr Close said.

"Despite the rise in Chinese gold production, the country will remain a net importer of gold.

"China reported that demand for gold last year reached 326 tonnes and it is expected to increase further following the launch of gold trading on the Shanghai Futures Exchange in January."

Dr Close said South African production for 2008 was being affected by electricity shortages and power cuts, which were unlikely to be overcome in the short term. "South Africa's big gold producers were recently forced to close their mines for almost a week as a safety measure rather than risk not being able to get their workers back up to the surface," Dr Close said.

"Some reports suggest that South African gold production will fall 15% to 20% even if power levels can be maintained at 90%."

Newcrest's Telfer mine in Western Australia was Australia's biggest in 2007, with output of 623,566 ounces. The Kalgoorlie SuperPit of Newmont and Barrick was next biggest at 609,000 ounces.
www.surbiton.com.au

http://business.theage.com.au/gold-output-fails-to-match-price-surge/20080302-1wbn.html

How's it look on a shorter timescale, guru's?

If conditions deteriorate further with the pleb shares then it may try for the 1k? Giving it a good go as I speak.

I think we could well and truly see this crack the 1000 very soon.

Inflation figures only getting worse, crude oil futures have just turned upwards again, good to see silver still in the green!

Ill be cheering for a breach of 1000 this week!

MRC & Co said:

crude oil futures have just turned upwards again!

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Spoke to soon

gold now 980.65.. finally something on the chart to get anything less than wildly bullish about in the short term..
firstly the breakdown out of this bearish wedge that formed the past few days in the purple on the hourly, sorry about the spaghetti...

secondly the breakdown - on high volume- below green neckline of the upward-sloping H&S which formed at the top of the purple wedge, on the 5-min.

Upward-sloping H&S is not a reliable major top which kind of ties in with the possibility of a parabolic move through 1000 and beyond still coming up, but in the meantime maybe some weakness? May be wrong here but it's just what I'm seeing right now... targets anyone?
cheers

barrett said:

gold now 980.65.. finally something on the chart to get anything less than wildly bullish about in the short term..
firstly the breakdown out of this bearish wedge that formed the past few days in the purple on the hourly, sorry about the spaghetti...

secondly the breakdown - on high volume- below green neckline of the upward-sloping H&S which formed at the top of the purple wedge, on the 5-min.

Upward-sloping H&S is not a reliable major top which kind of ties in with the possibility of a parabolic move through 1000 and beyond still coming up, but in the meantime maybe some weakness? May be wrong here but it's just what I'm seeing right now... targets anyone?
cheers

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Got to hand it to you Barret, youve got more angles there than a corrugated ion roof after cyclone tracey. My take is that the gold price rise on a US Monday is very bullish indeed and rarely happens. Bloomberg starting to sound like us rampers on this thread so perhaps its lookout above.

Will be intersting to see

That's interesting about the Monday rise, yeah I nearly fell off my chair when I saw that article on the Bloomberg website 'gold outperforming financial assets'.. It's the first time I can ever remember seeing the word 'gold' on the Bloomberg site.. left the telly on last night and woke up to them saying gold was approaching 1000, made me think especially if the banks continue to go down, and journalists take notice of 1000, it could bring in some new buyers..

Something interesting on the daily perhaps... this resistance has been touched (or close enough) with 5 closes in 3 months.

After a possible short-term pullback, could we be looking at a double breakout through 1000 _and_ overhead resistance? With agricultural prices and central banks as they are I'm having trouble imagining anything more serious than a short term correction within what _could_ be a parabolic move forming through March.....

being a gold bull and the fact i hold about 6-8 gold stocks i have a sneaking feeling we could see a $1000 tonight.........

imo once we have reached the first price target of $1025 this will level out for a bit and then people we WILL see a huge whoosh to the upside!!

I take heart from Platinum's price movements.

This is whats going to happen!!!

Hold tight and dont be pressured into selling your goldies....the time right now is to be buying.THE GOLD BULL RUN HAS ONLY JUST BEGUN!

TAKE CARE.

barrett said:

made me think especially if the banks continue to go down, and journalists take notice of 1000, it could bring in some new buyers..

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Trust me, they are already coming in! I know a couple of guys who just got on the bandwagon and these guys are your "mum and dad" type investors, more of them and we could see a soybeans run!

Scuffler, ha ha, damn, you are even more optimistic than us rampers, but hey, we are all on the gold bull together, so lets hope the bulls remain well fed (if those farmers can afford the food!).

MRC & Co said:

Trust me, they are already coming in! I know a couple of guys who just got on the bandwagon and these guys are your "mum and dad" type investors, more of them and we could see a soybeans run!

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I'm curious, do you know where they heard about gold from or why they decided to buy? And do they have a history of investing in other assets?

Most of the people I know have been very very reluctant to buy, even when I talk through it with them, even ones that invest regularly. They're starting to take notice of it now but not yet ready to commit capital. When they are asking me which gold stocks to buy, then I'll get a bit uneasy. I have an aunt who routinely calls me on the eve of major stockmarket corrections asking which stocks to buy.. she's still completely uninterested in gold, bless her.
cheers

barrett said:

I'm curious, do you know where they heard about gold from or why they decided to buy? And do they have a history of investing in other assets?

Most of the people I know have been very very reluctant to buy, even when I talk through it with them, even ones that invest regularly. They're starting to take notice of it now but not yet ready to commit capital. When they are asking me which gold stocks to buy, then I'll get a bit uneasy. I have an aunt who routinely calls me on the eve of major stockmarket corrections asking which stocks to buy.. she's still completely uninterested in gold, bless her.
cheers

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They both invest in shares, well more punt on shares.

Both have been reading about gold on the net (not sure which site), but then asked me about it. I told them I am on the gold bull at the moment. I know one has already bought at least one gold stock, the other guy says he is buying in, but not sure on the status.

Your Aunt calls you on the eve of major stockmarket corrections? How does she know one is about to take place? ha ha. Even we dont know that! But I get your drift.

Someone I know also asked me to invest for them, infact two have in the last week (after being wiped out buying banks and retail), but like you, makes me a little uneasy.

Yes, the sentiment is really going up now. The daily reach for Kitco.com is an excellent sentiment indicator. That is in my opinion anyway after seeing another person who post this on ASF too. You can see the peak of traffic reach for kitco.com is coincidence with the peak of the previous "short" bull run back in May 2006.

Right now, the reach is no where near the previous peak, but it has been trending up recently and actually broke the "double top" resistance. (ok, ignore the technical part, probably not valid for such chart) But the fact is that more and more "public individuals" are accessing the site to look for gold prices/info.

When this gets really really high, and when friends/aunties/uncles who know nothing about investment start talking about investing in gold, then it's time to get out.

Temjin said:

When this gets really really high, and when friends/aunties/uncles who know nothing about investment start talking about investing in gold, then it's time to get out.

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Interesting, so the chart is of the volume of those accessing info on gold at this particular website kitco.com?

No better time to pull out of the markets, better than any fundamental or technical indicator I beleive!

MRC & Co said:

Trust me, they are already coming in! I know a couple of guys who just got on the bandwagon and these guys are your "mum and dad" type investors, more of them and we could see a soybeans run!

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Sounds like a bubble is building... I always believe if you hear the shoe shine boy giving you tips on buying gold, it might be a good time to take your profits