Gold Price - Where is it heading?

treefrog · 2 January 2008

GoldSeek.com
Gold COT Report - Futures
Large Speculators Commercial Total
Long Short Spreading Long Short Long Short
210,521 26,146 139,730 115,530 337,061 465,781 502,937
Change from Prior Reporting Period
12,732 -1,370 8,683 4,310 16,234 25,725 23,547
Traders
169 52 42 35 46 227 123

Small Speculators
Long Short Open Interest
51,239 14,083 517,020
-3,706 -1,528 22,019
non reportable positions Change from the previous reporting period
COT Gold Report - Positions as of Monday, December 24, 2007

treefrog · 2 January 2008

this is more pretty:
http://news.goldseek.com/COT/1198874518.php

barrett · 2 January 2008

All valid points you made Uncle Festivus, it could go your way..

Also I should clarify my futures position...
- a small long position now, to build on if gold defies my expectation and moves upward;
- a willingness to go out on a limb with a big position if gold does as I expect and corrects.

IFocus · 2 January 2008

rederob said:
There are "some", but they are not useful.
The silver market was being manipulated by the Hunt's and came crashing down - only speculation kept it rising as the Hunt's were trying to buy all the world's silver, it seemed.
Middle East uncertainty has been running for 2 millennium, and last century few recall Nasser taking control of the Suez canal, let alone subsequent Israeli-Lebanon/Palestinian skirmishes.
While it is true that oil prices rose substantially back then, the cause was market manipulation again - nothing to do with fundamental supply and demand dynamics.
Presently gold supply is in deficit to the market, made up through "above ground" sales, such as through Central Banks.
Presently oil supply is in deficit, made up through refining additional consensates.
Presently there is a spectre of global recession, or at least a subprime meltdown that will impact the US severely.
Presently there is a flight to safety from funds, concerned that even "cash" may not withstand a subprime catastrophe.
Presently the benefits of going into gold, on balance, make far more sense than in the late 70s early 80s.
Top that off with a chart pattern that, as you suggest, kicks into the $1000+ range before its next period of consolidation.

Rederob is India still the largest consumers of gold? as the Indian economy grows I assume so will the consumption under pinning the price

Miner · 2 January 2008

IFocus said:
Rederob is India still the largest consumers of gold? as the Indian economy grows I assume so will the consumption under pinning the price

If I could insert some thing though question was not for me here. The answer is probably India is the second largest consumer. I remember Peter Lalor (when he was MD of Sons of Gwalia) commenting that India imports more gold than Australia produces. WIth a very high escalation of sudden riches in India and with increased GDP (+7 %) the demand for gold has gone up considerably. Indian women love gold jewelleries on 22 ct (not 14 or 18 ct gold in Australia). Sorry but if you are a reasonably well off Indian parent then your status is reflected by the amount of gold jewelleries you offer to your daughter and your wife wears in any festivity !
One distinct sign is the more than 100% increase in opening of new gold jewellery shops in all major Indian cities in last 12 months and the rush in each of the shops - unbelievable. Seeing is believing.
However Chinese women also wear gold a lot and with a larger population they come first. My research could be obsolete (disclaimer).

Sorry if I have intervened here.

Real1ty · 2 January 2008

Miner said:
If I could insert some thing though question was not for me here. The answer is probably India is the second largest consumer. I remember Peter Lalor (when he was MD of Sons of Gwalia) commenting that India imports more gold than Australia produces. WIth a very high escalation of sudden riches in India and with increased GDP (+7 %) the demand for gold has gone up considerably. Indian women love gold jewelleries on 22 ct (not 14 or 18 ct gold in Australia). Sorry but if you are a reasonably well off Indian parent then your status is reflected by the amount of gold jewelleries you offer to your daughter and your wife wears in any festivity !
One distinct sign is the more than 100% increase in opening of new gold jewellery shops in all major Indian cities in last 12 months and the rush in each of the shops - unbelievable. Seeing is believing.
However Chinese women also wear gold a lot and with a larger population they come first. My research could be obsolete (disclaimer).

Sorry if I have intervened here.

The high Gold price has been starting to have an effect on Indian imports.

The last 2 months have seen lower imports and scrap gold imports have risen.

This is despite it being the peak buying season.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601091&sid=aLpkOyImoxEI&refer=india

Whiskers · 2 January 2008

chops_a_must said:
I'm not really sure how you are reading that indicator whiskers... It is still reading a buy to me. The adx has bottomed at indicator support and is turning, although that momentum has appeared to weaken.

The +dmi is still way above the -dmi, which is still a long signal, but the adx is not above the -dmi level. So to me it indicates gold has a bit of a way to go, but perhaps wont be anywhere near as strong as previous moves. It's one of the very few indicators I use for trend trades, and I've found it quite useful.

This is all on AUD gold by the way.

Yeah Chops, I agree the signals are still buy, or at least hold... haven't turned sell yet in $US. I haven't looked at the $A chart for awhile.

What I am looking at is the potential for further movement in either direction, given the DMI's are an average of trade outside the previous peroids trading range.

I didn't print the ADX on my chart but it had just trended up above the level of the +DMI since late Nov.

The -DMI was trending down the page, ie loosing strength when the Bulls were well in control. Most trade was above the previous trading range. Then it turned in Nov to trend parallel with the axis at historic levels. The +DMI has since lost strength and can theoritically go much stronger again. But for that rise to be sustained there would need to be a significant trade above the previous periods trade. That would turn the -DMI down the page (weaker).

That is where I see the problem. Because the -DMI has changed trend and been tracking parallel at historic levels lately suggests to me that unless something quite out of the ordinary happens to force the POG up, in which case I think the retrace will be amplified, it is destined to weaken some before there is potential for a considerable rise again. I suppose it is consistant with the EW's impulse wave.

So_Cynical · 2 January 2008

USD 843 and climbing....this could be it.

:alcohol:

com on NY

Whiskers · 2 January 2008

So_Cynical said:
USD 843 and climbing....this could be it.:alcohol:

com on NY

NY futures in green so far and FTSE going steady at about +40.

There seems to be an expectation that a report to be released soon will show US oil inventories falling for a seventh month. VIENNA, Austria (AP)

I'm not optermistic of it rocketing too far from here, but it would be good too see it hang around up here and get one last little Bully run in with the shares to clear my gold stocks on.

It's just having a bit of a breather at the moment. Pretty hard work pushing up from here.

explod · 3 January 2008

Darn, seems to be going up, propbly make those gold shares go up more too. Struth, soonasyaturnyaback and go to bed, up like a rocket

Whiskers · 3 January 2008

Well, there goes the recent high. Tops $848.30 as I write.

Just hope it hangs up here for a couple of days.

PS: Hope those gold share do go up now, Explod.

ithatheekret · 3 January 2008

It's hit $843 hey , well wait , because I think my play is turning out , that means at least something above the comfort zone of $840 . Say $849/$850/$851

now that would be nice ............ late christmas

Miner · 3 January 2008

http://www.thewest.com.au/default.aspx?MenuID=159&ContentID=52880
Please see attached document if you do not mind.

Regards

numbercruncher · 3 January 2008

Good to see optimism again building!

I thought I was sensing Gold Bulls turning sceptical in this thread.

My humble opinion, If Gold crashes from these levels, everything else crashes too, so gold purchasing power is always maintained.

Poker · 3 January 2008

28 year high. Can it maintain this level...?

numbercruncher · 3 January 2008

Poker said:
28 year high. Can it maintain this level...?

Adjusted for "modern" Inflation measuring standards and other accountancy tricks ...

28 years ago in 1980, Gold averaged about $600 per oz and oil about $30 per barrel, Gold in 1980s oil dollars should be around $1800.

Kauri · 3 January 2008

Not a reason to short... or even to close out longs... just at a juncture where change is possible..
Cheers
..........Kauri

barrett · 3 January 2008

Whiskers said:
NY futures in green so far and FTSE going steady at about +40.

I'm not optermistic of it rocketing too far from here, but it would be good too see it hang around up here and get one last little Bully run in with the shares to clear my gold stocks on.

Hey Whiskers, I'm with you on a likely short term correction but can I just relate an experience I had selling out of nearly all my gold stocks in December 05, not so well reasoned at the time, but.. watching them soar another 30% through to April 06 was psychologically far worse than taking some paper losses in the short term would have been.. That's why I don't sell my shares, even with all the historical patterns and technical indicators.. Just my & I'm sure you have your own reasons, but a gold bug out of the market... not an experience I'm dying to repeat

ithatheekret · 3 January 2008

Well thar' she blows $860 top so far dipped back to $856

chops_a_must · 3 January 2008

ithatheekret said:
Well thar' she blows $860 top so far dipped back to $856

Totally detached from the US markets, which is incredibly bullish. Looks to have formed (to me in the very short term) a bullish retrace.

Might be an interesting night for me I think.

Gold Price - Where is it heading?

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