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Gold Price - Where is it heading?

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Actually, I was a Gold bull while you were still in your nappies back in 2001 when I went long in Gold and liquidated my holdings last year @ $660 Chops and I then went short multiple times.

See for yourself:

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=2366&page=23





Yes I held for 5 years, Chops, longer than you have held, it’s called buy low and sell high. Not buy at the tail end of the run and sell for a fraction higher and beat your chest with your fellow cohorts like you are something. Gold went nuts last year Chops, both in the up and the down direction, this year there is only one nut.


As for harassing, I have harrassed no one, only offered an alternate opinion which is why this forum exists, not for you, and not for your private messenger from Mt Martha to dominate.
If anything Chops YOU have the reputation of being the harasser here, Ohhh and don’t worry, chops your name has cropped up in the “fool” category not just in my mail box, but at meetings at café’s here in Melbourne with at least 5 other ASF posters, bet you didn’t know that now did you??


Last post you claimed I said sell @ $720, I am still waiting for you to quote me on this with the proof. I ain’t there.
 

wavepicker said:
Foreign curencies look like they may be ready to retreat here for a while, could be that POG does likewise in the weeks ahead.

(Oops should have not said that- the Gold bulls will be out in force with all the fundemental BS again)
Click to expand...

You have been saying this for more than 6 months now. You have been calling an end to the rise in gold ever since it broke 720. That is much as a call on saying a sell, as saying a rise is a buy. But this is just nonsense, you obviously don't like any questioning what so ever. You obviously think gold should have reversed by now, it hasn't, and I think it has a little further to go. That makes a market.

And who cares about not getting on things early? If you can get a very quick 15-20%, with low risk, that's pretty damn good in my books. And there looks to be a very very good opportunity to the same again. And I reaffirm my target for the ticker GOLD, to reach 96.

I don't particularly care about trades done done well in the past. I'm only interested in the now. Just because someone/ something is right 1000 times in a row, does not mean they will be the 1001st.

I have pointed out to you trades that I think are good presently, that you have entered. This one however seems to be staring you right in the face. I just don't understand the inability to reverse positions. Being right is not of paramount importance to me.

But it is nice you acknowledge I may actually be good at something.
 
There seems to be a bigger correlation between gold & oil for several weeks now. A wall of worry developing for those thinking a correction is due.
Then again, those crazy Japanese have decided it's time to buy! The first IOU nothing currency to actually be worth ziltch, but still fuels the global bubble supplying 'money for nothing'.

Japan's grannies drive up gold prices

Gold has soared to a fresh 28-year high of $760 (£372) an ounce on fears of global currency disorder and a surge of buying by Japanese investors using exotic trading signals.
Traders report a sudden burst of activity on the TOCOM gold futures markets in Tokyo as the price breaks through the psychological barrier of 3,000 yen (£12.52) per gramme, the measure used by the Japanese to trade gold.

The country's irrepressible grannies rely heavily on Ichimoku "cloud charts", multi-faceted indicators designed to give support/resistance levels in various markets, which have issued a powerful buy signal in recent days.
John Reade, head of precious metals at UBS, said the Japan can be a major driver of the gold price. "Japanese buying can come out of the blue, but it is too soon yet to tell whether they are about to take over the gold market," he said. "When the Japanese public move in with reckless abandon, everybody else gets out of the way. They can be the last to join the rally."

The fresh interest in gold comes as the yen renews its slide, hit by signs that the economy may be tipping back into deflation after the housing collapse during the summer. Housing starts fell 23.4pc in July and 43.4pc in August as new laws came into effect. The Bank of Japan has signalled that it will keep interest rates at 0.5pc for the foreseeable future, inviting funds to step up borrowing in Tokyo to chase higher yields elsewhere through the global "carry trade".
Rising inflation across China, India, the Middle East, eastern Europe and Latin America have all created the backdrop for a major move in gold. Citigroup said a global "reflation rally" caused by cuts in US interest rates could push prices above $1,000 an ounce.
UBS has upgraded its long-term forecast, but is cautious for now. "The net long positions on the US futures markets are at all-time highs. They have been at extreme levels for four weeks and when that happens you can be sure there will be a correction. It could be any time now," said Mr Reade.
 

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chops_a_must said:
This one however seems to be staring you right in the face. I just don't understand the inability to reverse positions. Being right is not of paramount importance to me.
Click to expand...


Just because I have not taken a long trade in Gold does not mean I am sitting there mulling Chops A Must. Look at yourself, you missed an obvious short trade in mid July let alone exit your longs, that was staring you in the face too as well as others but most did jack but hope. I have taken trades(probably many more than you) , not in Gold however as I think it's at the tail end of it's run. Simply right or wrong that's how I see it and I will be looking for opportunities either long or short when they present themselves. At present I have no plans to trade Gold or Gold stocks because IMO most Gold stocks might be in the midst of finishing off 5th waves.

Good to see you made a small profit, but the hard part is not getting in, that 's the easy bit, the hard part is knowing when to get out.

Good Luck
 
Continued.......

The Swiss bank (UBS) is the world biggest manager of funds for the super-wealthy and is closely watched by gold experts. It timed the latest rally perfectly, issuing a "table-thumping" buy alert to clients on 21 August just as gold began a surge of $114 an ounce.

Ichimoku Kinko charts look impenetrable to westerners. Nicole Elliott, a technical analyst at Mizuho, said their unique features is to look both forwards and backwards.

"The Japanese started charting rice futures in the 1700s.. They are streets ahead of us. I use Ichimoku charts all the time, and wouldn't be without them. You can't even begin to trade the dollar-yen otherwise," she said.
"What you can see on gold is that it closed last Friday above technical uber-resistance, telling anybody still hesitating that it was time to jump in.

Even so, we like the platinum group metals best. Platinum has reached an all-time high of $1428 an ounce, and palldium looks even better. If it closes above $380 an ounce, it is going to fly," she said.
 
Well, I don't have any shame in saying I was stopped out of about 6 trades (off the top of my head) over that time. Meanwhile I was paper shorting MBL, CSL, WBC and COH. After that I realised I couldn't be long only, and that's where I'm at now.

My methodology is simple: set stops, set targets, before I'm in the trade. Get out when one is hit.


While we get back to important matters, gold is finally breaking out against all currencies by the looks...
 
wavepicker said:
Which currencies might they be ??
Click to expand...


Just for today as we speak



Live currency charts and charts comparing $USD gold to all major currencies.
Exchange Rates
(Exchange rates displayed are the middle point between bid and ask) [details]
Currency Chg%
X=1$USD NY Time X=
1$USD X$USD
=1 Gold
Price/oz Gold
Chg Gold
Chg%
US Dollar -- 10/16-04:20 -- -- 761.00 +4.10 +0.54%
Australian Dollar -0.79% 10/16-04:19 1.1208 0.8922 852.93 +11.26 +1.34%
Brazilian Real +0.33% 10/16-03:10 1.8020 0.5549 1371.32 +2.85 +0.21%
British Pound -0.27% 10/16-04:19 0.4909 2.0373 373.54 +3.00 +0.81%
Canadian Dollar -0.26% 10/16-04:19 0.9792 1.0213 745.13 +5.91 +0.80%
Chinese Yuan +0.14% 10/16-03:50 7.5130 0.1331 5717.39 +22.86 +0.40%
Euro -0.20% 10/16-04:19 0.7056 1.4173 536.92 +3.95 +0.74%
Indian Rupee -0.41% 10/16-04:10 39.3650 0.0254 29956.77 +282.50 +0.95%
Japanese Yen +0.41% 10/16-04:19 116.8750 0.0086 88941.88 +115.88 +0.13%
Mexican Pesos -0.11% 10/16-04:10 10.8335 0.0923 8244.29 +53.58 +0.65%
Russian Ruble -0.11% 10/16-04:10 24.9323 0.0401 18973.44 +122.77 +0.65%
S.African Rand -1.38% 10/16-04:19 6.8830 0.1453 5237.96 +99.37 +1.93%
Swiss Franc -0.18% 10/16-04:19 1.1830 0.8453 900.22 +6.44 +0.72%
 

Looks to be the lot doesn't it?
 
Nice multi currency break out today....still some Aussie stocks not
moving up, half the Goldie's on my watchlist fell.... Go figure.
 
So_Cynical said:
Nice multi currency break out today....still some Aussie stocks not
moving up, half the Goldie's on my watchlist fell.... Go figure.
Click to expand...

Yes that is the trouble a lot of gold stocks have not participated.
Yes some had large jumps from there August lows
But with the price of Gold they showed "all" be exploding to the upside.
Silver is lagging can't get past US$ 14 and stay above it.
Bears/bearish positions have been in a number of stocks for a week or too.
Yes Gold is Bullish, Yes Oil is Bullish, Yes the Markets are Bullish.
But if one goes they will all go...the mood of the market will change quickly
A lot of world markets are floating on Air?
G7 meeting soon US$ rally?
Options this friday US markets?
Google reports thursday (Google and Apple have moving the Nasdaq)
Looking at futures at the moment is Silver going to lead Gold down?
Some may say Silver falling may be a good indication of the US going to a recession
 
bean said:
Looking at futures at the moment is Silver going to lead Gold down?
Some may say Silver falling may be a good indication of the US going to a recession
Click to expand...

Can you expand on the reasoning behing this statement please.


Cheers


BT
 
Whilst on silver, it has been range bound (some would say in consolidation) since the middle of 2006. In the last 6 months it has established good support in the US$13.50 area from where it bounced last night.

Gold of course has moved up more than $100 in the last couple of months and we must expect a breather.

I know a lot of followers scoff at fundamentals, but on that basis, US debt continuing equals continued dollar weakening to bullion strength, the silver breach of $14 will on past jumps see an explosion upwards of the gold price. This in my view may take a month or two.

Worth noting that in the last 31 years the most bullish time for gold has been from December to late January.
 
Bush Trader said:
Can you expand on the reasoning behing this statement please.


Cheers


BT
Click to expand...
The statement
Quote:
Originally Posted by bean
Looking at futures at the moment is Silver going to lead Gold down?
Some may say Silver falling may be a good indication of the US going to a recession

The following is an article from 1990 I can find more recent ones but they are basically the same.
However being a silver bull we believe that silver is not as abundent as what it was But silver is a precious metal and a commodity.
At the moment it appears to be acting like a commodity and is holding POG back but it may also be showing something.


Could be a reason why POS is lagging POG
 


Thanks for you informative post Bean

Cheers


BT
 
Gold Consolidates Recent Gains
by Peter A. Grant
October 17, a.m. (USAGOLD) -- We are happy to welcome Pete Grant to USAGOLD-Centennial Precious Metals. Mr. Grant is an economist and currency analyst - a position he held with Standard and Poor's for a number of years. We think you are going to appreciate the insights and experience he brings to the early morning installment of our Daily Market Report. - Mike Kosares

Gold is consolidating recent gains after achieving a new 28 year high at $766.60 in overseas trading on Tuesday. An inside day (higher low / lower high) is evident on the daily chart so far today, while intraday charts show the market coiling. This coil (a series of lower highs and higher lows) is a classic continuation pattern and we would therefore anticipate an upside breakout in the direction of the trend. The trend remains unquestionably bullish.

A minor technical point at $770.00 has been reinforced to some degree by yesterday's high, but there seems to be little to prevent short term probes above $800.00. The next major resistance level to contend with is the $875.00 all time high from January 1980.

The following are some breaking news items impacting gold:

Another active session in Asia last night as early buying interest saw gold move back toward the recent highs on less than impressive volume. Subsequently, Japanese names were seen selling more aggressively which knocked gold down about $6 rather quickly.

UBS is reporting that there are signs of gold scarcity in the London market for the first time in years. Gold lease rates have moved higher accordingly.

The recent upside extension in the metals prompted UBS to update their gold forecast for 2008 to an average price of $760.00 per ounce from the previously forecast of $650.00. Note that that is a forecasted average price, which would be consistent with tests above $800.00. We have already made note on the NewsGroup page that Citigroup came out with pretty bullish gold comments last week; suggesting potential is as high as $1,000.00 an ounce.

Oil remains well bid near record highs on solid demand and tight supplies. Continued tensions between Turkey and Iraq are seen as a destabilizing factor in the Middle East. There is concern that if Turkey does stage cross border attacks that the flow if Iraqi oil may be disrupted. Higher oil and heightened geo-political tension are expected to keep gold underpinned.
 
At the moment the POG is still Bullish
However Gold Indexs in the US are correcting?
The HUI has been gapping up at the opening then falling during the day to close at or near the lows of the day.
 
bean said:
Well was it the top in POG - Gold Index's and the DOW
It was a huge reversal day on big volume
and they all reversed at about the same time

Has reality finally hit?

Tonight and Monday may give the clues
Click to expand...
Not the top by the look. Futures almost touching $770.

What were the hints from last Friday and Monday Bean?

bean said:
At the moment the POG is still Bullish
However Gold Indexs in the US are correcting?
The HUI has been gapping up at the opening then falling during the day to close at or near the lows of the day.
Click to expand...
Indicies have pulled back to some support and bounced for the minute, but perhaps not 'correcting' yet. HUI ay 400 ish, XAU at 173 ish. Your B wave is runing away a bit....

MACDs maybe still hinting at a further pullback to me, but I can only call pull back to support levels identified earlier.


WP, I'm not sure how you get a W5 on the current run. Can you give me a hint to a starting point? cheers.
 

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Here is my seasonal chart for Gold for the month of November. Its clear November is typically a bullish month. This same chart pinpointed September as a strong month and indeed we got the breakout.




This post may contain advice that has been prepared by Reef Capital Coaching ABN 24 092 309 978 (“RCC”) and is general advice and does not take account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on this general advice you should therefore consider the appropriateness of the advice having regard to your situation. We recommend you obtain financial, legal and taxation advice before making any financial investment decision.
 
kennas said:
Not the top by the look. Futures almost touching $770.

What were the hints from last Friday and Monday Bean?
Click to expand...
The Gold Indexs have not taken out those highs. The US markets have not taken out the highs, So the big reversal day last week still in play?
Gold will be up again tonight?
US$ D day is approaching for a collapse or rally?
I have been in and out of the market like a Yo Yo.
But am back to 100% cash.
Next week may be 100% back in gold stocks?
but may also be glad 100% in cash?
 
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