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slipslidin awaaaayyyyy
Gold Daytraders
- Thread starter Uncle Festivus
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COT ....exuberance has a cost
using two random horizontal levels as a template for extremes, it is not hard to see when commercials decide to rotate the trend
no mess-around dump on the NFP's, no posturing or positioning in the final min re-release (cept for the overnight and prior days), USD cfd hit a 88.6% retrace uphill then slow slump into the close assisting gold to lift from the first bid zone, but, again, it's all 6pac leading the way and below the green machine is all bid as managers are mandated to chase the trend while commercials make their first decent extreme plunge
1480 is the idealised rotation level in this orthodox method which has been useful in prior major trends (resumption, down) ....an investment vehicle should not be reliant on one part to make way if it's authentic in trend, it should have it's own impulsion, this dependence on a singular market function belies what's really going on, doesnt mean we wont go higher, but, the positioning of commercials are selling into the strength (cfd's xauusd are regularly 60/70% BTO which is not extreme for PM's)
this coming week is likely to be muddy at best with the weekly bar signal giving a sell (not quite and outside down bar) and the low this morning was hardly bought into with gusto, suggesting this mornings low is taken out pdq on monday then upside bets become very limited espesh if the 6pac gets above the 88.6% retrace
#observations #USDI $xauusd #COT
https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=GC&p=w1
http://timingcharts.com/
money flow:
ratios:
ratios:
using two random horizontal levels as a template for extremes, it is not hard to see when commercials decide to rotate the trend
no mess-around dump on the NFP's, no posturing or positioning in the final min re-release (cept for the overnight and prior days), USD cfd hit a 88.6% retrace uphill then slow slump into the close assisting gold to lift from the first bid zone, but, again, it's all 6pac leading the way and below the green machine is all bid as managers are mandated to chase the trend while commercials make their first decent extreme plunge
1480 is the idealised rotation level in this orthodox method which has been useful in prior major trends (resumption, down) ....an investment vehicle should not be reliant on one part to make way if it's authentic in trend, it should have it's own impulsion, this dependence on a singular market function belies what's really going on, doesnt mean we wont go higher, but, the positioning of commercials are selling into the strength (cfd's xauusd are regularly 60/70% BTO which is not extreme for PM's)
this coming week is likely to be muddy at best with the weekly bar signal giving a sell (not quite and outside down bar) and the low this morning was hardly bought into with gusto, suggesting this mornings low is taken out pdq on monday then upside bets become very limited espesh if the 6pac gets above the 88.6% retrace
#observations #USDI $xauusd #COT
https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=GC&p=w1
http://timingcharts.com/
money flow:
ratios:
ratios:
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the controvertible USDI climb is the big lean on xauusd/silver
as per my weekend study, breaking above the 88.6% fridays res, USD level does not add to the upside picture for gold
making 1386 front month contract the level for ardent bulls to protect...where are the bids, all the bids are in as per the contract sizing shown in another thread here as ASF, the COT clearly shows managers and retailers have bought what there is to be bought and chasing the (input whatever narrative applied to suit the mood) and commercials have done the selling
the lack of bid and lack of "events" as an excuse to drive price higher exposes what's or who's actually driving trend todate....again, an authentic trend does not await events or causality, it is endogenous
i am STO protecting 1410's front month contract, looking for size at 1386 break
as per my weekend study, breaking above the 88.6% fridays res, USD level does not add to the upside picture for gold
making 1386 front month contract the level for ardent bulls to protect...where are the bids, all the bids are in as per the contract sizing shown in another thread here as ASF, the COT clearly shows managers and retailers have bought what there is to be bought and chasing the (input whatever narrative applied to suit the mood) and commercials have done the selling
the lack of bid and lack of "events" as an excuse to drive price higher exposes what's or who's actually driving trend todate....again, an authentic trend does not await events or causality, it is endogenous
i am STO protecting 1410's front month contract, looking for size at 1386 break
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xauusd stalls, forcing bids to accept lower value, fails to reach basic symmetric ratios
(1, 2 and 3 yellow lines)
limps back to the round 1400 # and sellers slowly roll it over, USDI maintains it's structure (up)
(1, 2 and 3 yellow lines)
limps back to the round 1400 # and sellers slowly roll it over, USDI maintains it's structure (up)
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i missed annotating the symmetry that does matter, the one the whole set-up now rests on, technically
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a weekly rotation has hit xauusd and inline with small rotation in usdi which itself needs a confirmation of a larger move north
what's more important (to me) is that while gold has required permission to move from the 6pac it is well balanced in sentiment (retail cfd positions)
so while the metric is valid and perfect hit/rotation, that so many people agree on a sell at a high when typically gold has been extremely bullish at highs ......gotta think, more of the same is more probable (up)
sell to open for now but with a retake of the 1453's level all downside bets will be off
what's more important (to me) is that while gold has required permission to move from the 6pac it is well balanced in sentiment (retail cfd positions)
so while the metric is valid and perfect hit/rotation, that so many people agree on a sell at a high when typically gold has been extremely bullish at highs ......gotta think, more of the same is more probable (up)
sell to open for now but with a retake of the 1453's level all downside bets will be off
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sticking with my sells as xauusd rolls downhill
two observations, aside from the 1:1 ratio completing the bounce allowing for a new leg down to correct the 2000-2011 bull market, we have a USDI that has regualrly been at 88-90% sell to open, so if 90% ish are STO (10-12% BTO) and xauusd is still holding 55% BTO's then that'sa good back drop for more downside till xauusd can find a basic vpoc zone to attempt another move thru the 1452-1453 level
its a solid wall
i started executing btcusd cfds this week as the major correction june 27th thru july 17th appears complete, with USDpac on the bid btcusd is struggling to get up, but it appears a better bid side proposition than xauusd
two observations, aside from the 1:1 ratio completing the bounce allowing for a new leg down to correct the 2000-2011 bull market, we have a USDI that has regualrly been at 88-90% sell to open, so if 90% ish are STO (10-12% BTO) and xauusd is still holding 55% BTO's then that'sa good back drop for more downside till xauusd can find a basic vpoc zone to attempt another move thru the 1452-1453 level
its a solid wall
i started executing btcusd cfds this week as the major correction june 27th thru july 17th appears complete, with USDpac on the bid btcusd is struggling to get up, but it appears a better bid side proposition than xauusd
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bulls have all the work to do, to prove the[ir] trend
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that vpoc zone where we're likely to see another bid-up
volume comment refers to this weeks selling versus the previous sells first week of july
the volume is not extreme, just more-than, it can be seen as protective selling because so many technicians use ratios but so far the selling is quiet a case can be made for both sides of the gig
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xauusd is sitting/sagging at the vpoc low (see above chart)
post Draghi there was a bid but it's been sold into, very small series of lower lows are clear, today retail cfd's are 63% long with USDI 8% long (8% buy to open, 92% sell to open)
sentiment favours more slump
and lower time frame in silver has an arguable wedge with a double top-type thing......so not an incontrivertible anything at the moment, limited moments of volatility
...with the offer
post Draghi there was a bid but it's been sold into, very small series of lower lows are clear, today retail cfd's are 63% long with USDI 8% long (8% buy to open, 92% sell to open)
sentiment favours more slump
and lower time frame in silver has an arguable wedge with a double top-type thing......so not an incontrivertible anything at the moment, limited moments of volatility
...with the offer
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in the above silver chart the complete diagonal wedge appears to be confirmed today with an impulsive sell down ....i can (have) make a case of a truncated lower high in xauusd but it's early days yet to use phrases such as
" incontrovertible trend"
" incontrovertible trend"
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jittery PM's stampeding the exits ...this could get momo very quickly now as get-out levels are hit and m/a sells are triggered
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sell-side liquidity has the bigger % pressure inter markets
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head fakes
if we define the smart money as a group of players whom have an intent to drive low volume in a direction so they get can best position for the direction they want (the opposite) we can call that a head-fake set-up
until xauusd (gold v. USDI) makes a break-out new high we should be aware of the fake bids
if we define the smart money as a group of players whom have an intent to drive low volume in a direction so they get can best position for the direction they want (the opposite) we can call that a head-fake set-up
until xauusd (gold v. USDI) makes a break-out new high we should be aware of the fake bids
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i am back to STO's again today
the COT report is such an extreme, so many players on one side of the boat, a % retrace is the least to expect....pretty impressive the managers chasing the offer and the commercials offering it up for sale
the COT report is such an extreme, so many players on one side of the boat, a % retrace is the least to expect....pretty impressive the managers chasing the offer and the commercials offering it up for sale
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long list of green diggers, $xgd on below zero 13 week money flows
good day to sell the highs
good day to sell the highs
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larger view https://www.tradingview.com/x/fYrRdrdZ/
heat resistant view https://www.tradingview.com/x/4dq75DtL/
heat resistant view https://www.tradingview.com/x/4dq75DtL/
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about to find out if this is merely the auction looking for value to break overhead res
scaling is prob a good idea here depending on the TF being employed
www.tradingview.com
scaling is prob a good idea here depending on the TF being employed
Chart Image
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for buyers of the dip there may be many dips to come
holding the downsloping channel line is a fair indication we are in near-term trend mode
www.tradingview.com
holding the downsloping channel line is a fair indication we are in near-term trend mode
