Gold Daytraders

Joules MM1 said:

referring to the third chart above, the try-angle try-hard thing should see bids protect 1315's nearterm as a typical measure, fall thru there opens break of the base and whoopsie stops n sells below

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price rotated at 1316's forcing me to cover, i waited to see if the bid would be impulsive and it's not so the jury is out altho BTO at 23's is ok thus far, 1315's would still be an uncle point to keep this orthodox idea alive

by shifting the make-up of the try-angle and depending on the actual uspide exit the basic target is 1429's

the $DB and sudden swill of dumping has not shaken the players bid side, but, we have the COT to come tonight and not much else, no bigly news releases expected (maybe bailout for Douche-bag bank) and china pmi on the weekend, small longs for this until the upside is breached, previous post on 1:1 boxed ratio still applies

a freebie, you're welcome

a 1:1 ratio from a compressed base, attracting instant momo and covering, hold the stop level, play a cover on previous swing high or add on the break with stop at 50% of the move up to the prev swing high

to qualify the two trades in the above chart, the ratio and stops must be clear, as price get close to the prev swing high and as momemtum attracted momo players and covering, the trade is scaled, for example, a 100 contracts reduced to 25 at the high, on a break of the prev swing high, re-open 25 with a stop below half way of the whole phase, lift stop of the anchor trade to just below halfway

if the trade makes a false break that gives context to the larger pahse that brought about the smaller ratio trade and give "some" insight into the larger game at hand, about whether i traded an accumulation (ideally impulsive trend move inline with momo) or a congestive move (more of the same chop within the confines of a distribution) or long-build compression (a series of larger compressions that trap early sellers and gives easy supply to longs)

if the take off is in a series of impulsive smaller internal legs then a new levels can be sought for longs to be added with higher GTFO levels .......it is important to place higher GTFO levels as there are no markers for where Commercials will dump despite all the VPOC data and alike

and part iii of iii

printing as i go, no hindsight

using the smaller trades to size and position the larger move, more importantly, to build context for ones own molded techniques

Joules MM1
2016-Oct-03 15:17:10
getting very close to the uncle point on gold for longs, break down of 1310's prob bring a flood of STC and STO's

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when's a try-an-angle not a triangle

when it's a roll-over ......levels levels levels!



"....it's now or never, come hold me close, kiss me my darling .....aaarrrggghhhhh"

(from the album "songs of the lemming goldy")

i see stocks like OVL are absolutely bonkas buybuybuy cos Jim Rickards and alike are spruiking them

@TraderJazzHands 20s21 seconds ago

$gold at base of tri-hard below 1306's exp sell-side liquidity to step in

particularly enjoyed this:


http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2016/10/10/sam-altmans-manifest-destiny

Joules MM1 said:

View attachment 68324

i see stocks like OVL are absolutely bonkas buybuybuy cos Jim Rickards and alike are spruiking them

@TraderJazzHands 20s21 seconds ago

$gold at base of tri-hard below 1306's exp sell-side liquidity to step in

particularly enjoyed this:

View attachment 68325
http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2016/10/10/sam-altmans-manifest-destiny

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Hi Joules
I am afraid if you could provide some more flesh into your posting ? It looks like lot of information you gave just like Port Publishing does but little for the fools like me to understand.
I visited OVL and was surprised only a month or so back the company placed shares at 0.012 and today it is more than double. Strange behaviour and time.

Julian ‏@TraderJazzHands 16s17 seconds ago

$gold makes the brk of lower triangle boundary, attracts STC's and STO's (=attracts sell-side liquidity momo) new context/relative sizing

Joules MM1 said:

Julian ‏@TraderJazzHands 16s17 seconds ago

$gold makes the brk of lower triangle boundary, attracts STC's and STO's (=attracts sell-side liquidity momo) new context/relative sizingView attachment 68329

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Good and thanks for clarification

$gold leads to review now the context is established until #NFP's release weekly channel

note the sentence "typical return" refers to the level that would normally have hit if the compression within the triangle broke to the upside (a measured move) and is an orthodox level for price to return to before re-commencing the larger monthly/quarterly trend (down) ....in an earlier post i put up an idea that
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/f...=12971&page=19&p=919313&viewfull=1#post919313
we may have seen a significant top and that is still in play, based on the break down of the compression triangle, clearly, by the smaller hourly trade set-ups the distribution is clear, without the benefit of any data other than the smaller trade moves in threes, that is, each move up is/has been in up/down/up overlapping choppy non-impulsive, good hallmarks of 'more in the same falling direction' to come and eventually, where i demarked 1310's warning (lower triangle line) and 1306's to attract strong sell-side liquidity (sell to close + sell to open) is also en mode

context remains key, how the price action is framed at several levels determins the risk and sizing required

now the journey is to find the correct ratios and look for any signature that the move is a either a resumption of the larger bear market or a retracement in a much larger ABC to thru to the 1420-1430 zone ("typical return")

$DX on the bid constructively



https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ct7cQFZVUAQerco.jpg:large

gold now eating way thru res in a smaller upleg in a Down-Up-Down sequence (first down completed, in start of the up part of this sequence)

once completed we head for new lower lows probably to crack 1200's and lower

edit, missing level on the above chart: there should be a ratio level at 1270's which is a 1:1 from the 1241 low, front month cfd contract

if price hits that level and sell impulsively i'll consider that a completion of the bounce as tawdry as it has been thus far it clearly says to me we are not at the foot of a new bid mountain, mole hill of bullsh!t maybe...

Joules MM1 said:

edit, missing level on the above chart: there should be a ratio level at 1270's which is a 1:1 from the 1241 low, front month cfd contract

if price hits that level and sell impulsively i'll consider that a completion of the bounce as tawdry as it has been thus far it clearly says to me we are not at the foot of a new bid mountain, mole hill of bullsh!t maybe...

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Have enjoyed your comments J.

Following the big push several weeks ago I exited my smallish position in GDX and NCM, taking small loses on trades heavily in the money at one point.

Longer term I'm uncertain now, Several months back I had a bullish looking chart and confirming personal view about the positive carry of gold - this has since changed to an uglyish looking chart and a 'if i cant beat them join em mentality'.

My strategy will be to do what I always do - wait for momentum and then look to enter.

kid hustlr said:

Have enjoyed your comments J.

Following the big push several weeks ago I exited my smallish position in GDX and NCM, taking small loses on trades heavily in the money at one point.

Longer term I'm uncertain now, Several months back I had a bullish looking chart and confirming personal view about the positive carry of gold - this has since changed to an uglyish looking chart and a 'if i cant beat them join em mentality'.

My strategy will be to do what I always do - wait for momentum and then look to enter.

Click to expand...

Nice little move from 19:22 ...

kid hustlr said:

....what I always do - wait for momentum and then look to enter.

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thanks, Kid

the progress in this fake lift is as it should be despite the momo that's kicked in as we speak...the mess that has printed so far in the smaller bars attest to the current upswing since the 1241 swing low (front month cfd) being
part of a bounce within a larger leg downards to correct the move from the weekly low

i think, with your momo idea in mind, it's important to nail the context on several time frames and then see how that fits your technique....if you can bring your technique to fit the context and relative sizes of each play then determin whether moves are corrective or impulsive maybe that will balance your disposition ...takes practice for sure

clearly the $DX taking a pause in its own impulsive bid is adding to the background of the current hourly outlook for PM's ....and a rare occasion when the correlation is positive guidance, but, again, moves within moves require context.....there's no law that says $DX cannot go north (pick a bar time-size) and track with gold

chasing momo is fine so long as you are clear on context and exit points...

so we can be pretty clear on what a reversal south exit would lets look at a couple of northern exit targets
the first would prob be traders fave, the halfway....
halfway between the high prior to exiting the triangle to the 1241's low is 1292's
halfway between the high daily swing high 1377/1241's is 1308's

I like the 1292's level as it is also a ratio of one of the upswings within the triangle, giving a cluster if you like
the next ratio after that 1298's

my suggestion is to be looking in the diary for a purging date, by that I mean a date where we suddenly get a strong buying surge on a news release as often occurred in many of the swings that led to daily highs in the weekly downtrend, prob ex FED or EU central, maybe BOJ or non-farms .....this is the key i think we should see....retail total conviction followed by quieter higher high that see commercials lean on....

I like ratios ...of themselves are endogenous .....they tend to have "better" cues and speak of construction so this current leg will be very interesting given that price can make new weekly bounce highs and still be part of a whole correction to gold/silver decadal bear market

1272's offered an inverted ratio, a level to exit on if the lower time frame suggests a rotation which is current

price will probably take some time to rotate below this level before making new highs and suggests not re-entering unless the construct offers a strong hint to get long again below 1272's

this is fairly typical of these upward corrections in a pro-regressive set

1272's was retested and failed but no reversal, price range being probed, non-impulsive, but clearly there is liquidity that wants higher value

re-entry BTO at 1273's break (yellow)
s. 67's at the low swing

Asian session no help to establishing upward trend, adding to the background idea we are in a corrective lift

time is the factor at play here relative to the size of the swings being completed, let's call them hourly basis for the sake of this phase...time is being "treaded" to allow enough broken price discovery upside while major players do not want to commit and are probably more inclined to await a decent flush much lower before re-entering longs

going with the unfolding price, breaking the lower flagline sells, above the flagline bids ...