Gold Day Trading

[Joules MM1]

short term the lack of impulsive selling looks good for long term bulls
short term trade the downchannel has some structure
price made several attempts to get above the standard-fare 38.2% res (low to high) but price
still sits below that ratio and below the centreline of the downchannel,
price keeps the appearance of further roll over today, from a bullish
perspective there are better value levels to come for entry

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above 1897 bulls light like a candle

 

[Joules MM1]

thus far in the larger picture
we have simple ABC printed
impulsive selling in the first leg down - A
failed attempt (by a point) to retake the high - B
and the current downswing - C
i have drawn the altered and what shoud stand for a few more days, as the orthodox channel, for an impulsive trend
remaining open to the idea there is a lot more to develop whereas we are merely correcting,
currently, the prior upleg, staying with shorts for mine

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[Joules MM1]

while the current downchannel develops, we should note the typical down-up-down
sequence most common has already exceeded typical abc ratios (1:1 and 1:1.618)
this lends itself to more anecdotal evidence of not closing sells until a rejection signal comes
especially while each hour the trend/price action is so smooth
uber bulls can be satisfied to get better value,
when does a short term trade become a long term position?
we are about to find out as we approach the half way level (march 9th 1677 > 1916)
i have labeled accordingly, again, the channel is not yet developed enough to know the boundaries

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[Joules MM1]

with trend on, looking for simple low volatility bounces of equal measure:
edited https://www.tradingview.com/x/aOSBZ9s1/

 

[Joules MM1]

quiet bid in the overnight (US), no impulsive urgency in Asian trade
so far a simple abc counter-trend printing
moving beyond the standard retrace/bounce measures would make me look at the larger picture and adjust
keep in mind we just pinged off the 61.8% level, at best it is arbitrary, point to point, no discernable context,
we're talking a commodity not an index,
to that, i say, beware that all the major players have more information and data, theyre more adept at knowing when
the 61.8 crowd gathers

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[Joules MM1]

1800 xauusd appears to be a nice round target, middle of the minor downchannel
news tonight, if news fits the trend we'll get an insight from that news, the interpretation of it at least,
how significant the current move is, is it a pullback in a healthy bull trend or have seen a substantial rotation ?

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[Joules MM1]

the 618 crowd bought their lot and got sold into, the news reaction was inline with the current downswing,
i suspected we'd at least test 1800 as the round number stops of STO's would sit there, that type of action is typcial of trapping,
lack of trapping is also a sign of players not wanting to get caught with longs they cannot distribute themselves, meaning,
if the trend is so clear to market markers and liquidity gangs then they do not want to lose their edge by being
stranded with longs that cannot reach the usual
round numbers, well, just a thought, i could be completely off base, but, for mine,
that risk idea fits the current structure, imho


on news no aggressive bids came, again, suggesting lowering risk is firmly with trading along current price direction,
players who fade for rebates dont want the trend to fade them as loss of points outweighs the rebate gained
there was an hour where churn created a volume point of control 1781>1772, bids lost that battle,
price went on its way lower,
next step is the roof of march11>march27, the base of that roof we can call 1722,
at which point we'll be stretched, as we'll be in the 78.6%>88.6% window, below which fresh air blows thru,
i suspect we'll see a rally in that zone 1739>1722,
thus far the channel is proving up well
we have confimative points now, trendy price action adds to the outlook

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[Joules MM1]

pared back STO xauusd pop at the open, looking for a clean and tested break of the channel,

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#divergence, #rushingtoconclusionbythebuyers

 

[Joules MM1]

all the right signals at the open, but, where are the buyers, overnight sesh in the US but still no momo

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#lamebid

 

[Joules MM1]

right about now a lot emails will be sent showing this idea

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..for mine we still have to kill the dowchannel for that idea to have substance and it's a hail-mary techncially
the longer it takes to validate the idea the wider the risk becomes

#wheredoyousetthefaillevelforH&S?

 

[Joules MM1]

yesterday was particularly busy in the auction, am out of sells and small long for this, at least until we reach the other side of this
current downchannel
we could interpret that a good rotation is only possible when price is supported in a small zone like this, such as, over the last few sessions
and supply is being gulped, with no clear picture that supports either sell or buy case
so, levels being levels we have near risk for bids, 1766 for mine xauusd
breaking out of the channel on an impulsive bid is likely to attract late comers but we need to see price ascend on a clean set of moves
currently we are 1782

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[Joules MM1]

only one way to describe the current price action : pathetic, def favours the bear perspective on a short term basis
price has begun to act typical of a flag, a continuation signal
on a time basis alone we are taking way longer than seen in several months to rotate north
again, levels being levels, while bulls sit on the luxury of previous vpoc levels looking like creating a floor
that lack of impulsive bid and flag print suggests "we are at an inflection point" (a saying i cringe at usually)

the best scenario with this churn is that we are still playing out the most recent pullback (1961-1761) and need to make
one final slightly lower low before supply runs out and buyers have to chase the bid
that would then require price to do two things, break out of the channel on impulse and make above/thru (and get tested)
1796

if the bear flag plays out 1796 wont be touched, we'll have impulsive selling, a news trigger would pull bids and add open sells

aside from the counter-intuitive 2 to 5 point swings slower than wetgrassfistfight there's not a lot to do from a positional point of view

i favour the downside here especially given that we have no fear reflected in the cfd positions of both retail and "top" traders at 80%BTO

we reached the bottom of a large channel, arguably a standard-fare bullflag in a bull trend, but, what do we see at that bottom(?)
nothing but bull sentiment and when we bounce off that low then retrace that bounce, what do we have(?), nothing but raging bull sentiment

yeah, no need to rush, let's see who the fat kid is on the other end of this seesaw !!

 

[Joules MM1]

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a thrust to the march 20 area (vpoc), a final thrust before the supply runs out ?
below that the probabilities of continuation in the current direction increase
price still needs to decisively break the channel on an impulsive bid
sells remain intact for mine, triangle/coiling create a lot of yes/no swings as one group overhwhelms the other
the boundary is an attempt to box price, once that boundary is broken it is a good idea to not be tied the most immediate ideas


#risk

 

[Joules MM1]

we may get a decision tonight: what is the auction trying to achieve ?

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[Joules MM1]

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train is leaving sellersville onto shouldasold

 

[Joules MM1]

"top" traders (cfd) are running at 88% long as the rip south hits
total retail is 82% long

 

[Joules MM1]

the dash down has arguably completed this sell down, technically for mine, for two reasons
a completed thrust from a triangle typical of this move (triangles precede a final move prior to a rotation)
that the triangle made a 127.2% inverted measure, 127's are also terminal moves, in context

so now we have clearly close-at hand risk levels for both sells and buys
this helps with both positional and account risk
the huge bias of 86% cfd liquidity to the buyside does not fit a picture of fear, this makes me shift my overall
technical bias to sell until that channel is cleanly broken and we have an impulsive bid
nearterm we can go back up to correct the most recent trip down, but unless that ego grab of buyers begins to thin out i am inclined
to think we could be in for an uber dump .....but, again, levels being levels and those being close at hand

the immediate hourly price action says we are done selling

 

[Joules MM1]

um, that didnt last long

this is worth considering:

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[Cam019]

Just some short term perspective here. Chart is always moving as price unfolds but currently looking for the smart money to grab liquidity from areas of inefficiency built from the prior leg down.

 

[Cam019]

Just as an exercise, what does this pink zone look like to retail traders? Triple top possibilty? Chances are we will see some kind of wicking into this level to get retail traders preparing to get involved on the short side, maybe a 'bearish engulfing' candle as well and then a blast through to the upside triggering stop losses, aka liquidity. We still have inefficiencies above the pink zone that need filling. May or may not happen - interesting none the less.