Global Warming - How Valid and Serious?

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Ah, how we love our self-flagellation.

i dont have to do that to myself anymore. im married.....

 

[wayneL]

Perhaps The Climate Change Models Are Wrong...
http://www.cosmosmagazine.com/node/1810#comment-44109

Wow that's a bombshell. They have a name for that in archeology and anthropology - Ooparts. (Out Of Place ARTifactS)

Any artifacts that don't conform to the prevailing archeological or anthropological theory is disregarded and discarded to museum basements, perhaps never to see the light of day again.

 

[Aussiejeff]

We could all debate this "climate" thingy until we go blue in the face or explode in a puff of superheated steam ....

The ONLY REAL FACTS we have to work with are:

(a) It will take MANY years and probably lifetimes to figure out what MIGHT be happening to the future long term trend.

(b) We have NO WAY of currently confirming whether the past long term trend (see re-worked graph) is going to follow the RED arrow direction (warmer, possible?) or the BLUE arrow direction (cooler, possible/probable?).

Whenever there is a fork-in-the-road situation, debate WILL rage. IMO that is where we currently lie...and given the looooong time frames involved here, I'll predict that we'll be a-raging on this subject for millenia!!

 

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Wow that's a bombshell. They have a name for that in archeology and anthropology - Ooparts. (Out Of Place ARTifactS)

Any artifacts that don't conform to the prevailing archeological or anthropological theory is disregarded and discarded to museum basements, perhaps never to see the light of day again.

along those lines wayneL... www.celticnz.co.nz

 

[wayneL]

along those lines wayneL... www.celticnz.co.nz

Intriguing. Something to keep me quiet for a bit. Thanks for the link.

 

[The Ferret]

The sham that is "earth hour"...

http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,23444989-5007146,00.html

I liked..

When a fixed effect is included for the whole day, the drop in electricity use during Earth Hour is statistically indistinguishable from zero

and...

So why does The Age exaggerate?

Because it's on a campaign to persuade, not inform, which is why it also won't report other awkward facts.

Here's one: global temperatures have fallen since 1998.

Indeed, all four big global temperature tracking outlets, including Britain's Hadley Centre, now say global temperatures over the past year have dropped sharply.

NASA adds that the oceans have also cooled for the past few years...

 

[Wysiwyg]

wys
I sorted that data - birth rates descending, death rates ascending.

2020 where is the comparitive table to show birth rates going down and death rates going up?

Also when there is 20 billion people on the planet how easy will it be to pull back the growth?The governments will have to enforce birth control via reduction and you can bet that the freer world will take that like a block of concrete.The side effects of Chinese policy ....

China imposed strict population controls, including a policy of one child for almost all couples, in the 1970s to limit growth of its huge population. One side effect has been a jump in gender selection of babies. Traditional preferences for a son mean some women abort their baby if an early term sonogram shows it is a girl.

 

[Julia]

The sham that is "earth hour"...

http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,23444989-5007146,00.html

I liked..



and...

Yes. Pure symbolism. All part of the hysteria.

 

[2020hindsight]

2020 where is the comparitive table to show birth rates going down and death rates going up?

Also when there is 20 billion people on the planet how easy will it be to pull back the growth?The governments will have to enforce birth control via reduction and you can bet that the freer world will take that like a block of concrete.The side effects of Chinese policy ....

wys
not sure I'm keeping up here.
But there was a spreadsheet attached to post #858.
and the table there was the start of the sequence,
and this is the end of the sequence

- after it was sorted by birth rate decreasing first
and then -second level sort - by death rate increasing ( only relevant when both death rates have the same birth rate obviously. )

Note how educated Europe features at this end of the scale.
whereas uneducated Africa features at the top end.
...

 

[2020hindsight]

:topic
PS Italy third lowest birth rate ..

Just goes to prove
either
a) the rhythm method is damn near the best contraceptive technique out there ,
or
b) most Italians ignore the Pope. :eek3:

 

[Smurf1976]

It's Earth Hour and climate change overdrive right now in Tas. Hard to turn the news on and hear about any other subject. Even Premier Paul Lennon is on the bandwagon with the lights out and full scale energy audits in.

Now, I'm sure this has everything to do with the environment and nothing to do with those 18% full Hydro storages. The plane starts flying for the 2008 cloud seeding season next week - better hope it works or we'll be getting Earth Six Months rather than Earth Hour.

Not to worry though, physical construction has apparently commenced on the pulp mill...

 

[2020hindsight]

well my attitude (given the consequences of getting this wrong) is as follows:-

until AGW is proven to be wrong
then I'm happy that the leaders of the world are ignoring the nay-sayers.
(call this option 3 above - as a fallback)

PS to say nothing of the fact that there will be benefits on side issues like general pollution.

 

[wayneL]

well my attitude (given the consequences of getting this wrong) is as follows:-

until AGW is proven to be wrong

It has.

then I'm happy that the leaders of the world are ignoring the nay-sayers.

Call people taking in ALL the facts "naysayers" says more about your own biases than anything else.

PS to say nothing of the fact that there will be benefits on side issues like general pollution.

Nonsense.

Perhaps air pollution to a small degree, but general pollution and environmental degradation continue unabated under the CO2 bandwagon.

 

[2020hindsight]

It has.

Call people taking in ALL the facts "naysayers" says more about your own biases than anything else.


Nonsense.

Perhaps air pollution to a small degree, but general pollution and environmental degradation continue unabated under the CO2 bandwagon.

here's another bit of mind taxing logic wayne..

suppose that the global warming is not AGW
although I note you say on alternate threads that it isn't getting warmer...

but suppose we try to take on a serious managerial role here and produce some AGC. - to combat the natural GW if you wish. Now there's a concept isn't it?

 

[wayneL]

here's another bit of mind taxing logic wayne..

suppose that the global warming is not AGW
although I note you say on alternate threads that it isn't getting warmer...

but suppose we try to take on a serious managerial role here and produce some AGC. - to combat the natural GW if you wish. Now there's a concept isn't it?

Well, in light of recent evidence on this thread, I have to ask, what global warming? We are seeing some climatic variance, but that is entirely normal in a chaotic system. I am even prepared to accept anthropomorphic regional climate change in certain circumstances, due to deforestation, anthropomorphic desertification of, heat sink effect of cities etc. This does greatly concern me, but the IPCC ignores this by supporting the co2 ruse.

But broad based warming? Dunno about that one. Small sample sizes, sigma, leptokurtic distribution curves, an' all that.

Can you say "hidden agenda"?

 

[doogie_goes_off]

First get definite proof that CO2 levels on a scale seen today = AGW (if there is GW) then think about creating AGC. The golden rule of life... think before you act, how much you think is up to you but I put it to 2020 HS that maybe you have thought just enough to be dangerous a nay-sayer to evidence in your own right? Apologies if this is seen as playing the 'man' as I value multiple opinions.

 

[2020hindsight]

Well here's what the IPCC say about "proof" of a serious predicament.
They won the Nobel Peace Prize. I mean - all very well to say they've been proven wrong, that AGW is proven wrong, that someone (qualifications unspecified half the time) disagrees with them. But these blokes are seriously intelligent people. With serious hours of research behind their comments. And they post the level of confidence in their predictions - according to various scenarios. They also post models of chaotic systems to demonstrate that, yes they even understand the basics.

Also here's a time clock where 12 hours represents the age of the earth, and man turns up at 17 seconds to 12 (or 34 seconds to midnight if you prefer a 24 hour simile.) What destruction we have caused!

The other factors are the pollution that would be simultaneously addressed.
The deforestation - (that would be addressed by tackling GW)
The fauna that would benefit from correcting this for a start.
Instead of that, some here want to chase the dollar till the world says " enough already, I give in" .

Or of course there's the cunning way to do it. ....

Like Johnny Howard ... " Anthropomorphic Global Warming is nonsense! - But in ANY case, my government has achieved more to combat it than those who signed Kyoto"

Well hellooo ... what are you saying here Johnny? you are a greeny deep down? - or just a hypocrite?

this talk of global warming up with which I will not put
I wouldn’t touch Kyoto with a barge pole forty foot
but I’ll do it surreptitiously, and take all the carbon credit
cos there’s benefits to being green, but don’t tell them I said it.

The graph btw is what will happen if we reduce CO2e emissions by 1.9% per annum and so avoid more than a 2degC rise in temp. - Is that asking to much?
Is that "hysteria" as Julia wants to call it?
Is total inaction - "wasting our time" even monitoring the situation according to half the posts here - is that not a more serious sin?
If monitoring the situation and reporting on alarming scientific conclusions is a sin, or hysteria, then so be it - but there's a lot to lose here. And a lot to gain ( not just CO2 wayne).

Even the economy will improve. (or do we all disagree with Stern and Garnaut as well.)
Hey - I don't expect some of you to address any of those points about IPCC - you'd prefer to say "nay" - or is it "neigh"? and take the punt that this predicament will somehow sort itself out by itself.

 

[The Ferret]

Computer modelling.... rubbish in-rubbish out.

 

[wayneL]

Well well well!

The unequivocal seems to be equivocal after all.

The IPCC and the AGW alarmists are looking more and more foolish as time goes by.

Watch them defend their funding to the death. LOLOL

 

[2020hindsight]

well my attitude (given the consequences of getting this wrong) is as follows:-
until AGW is proven to be wrong ... .
then I'm happy that the leaders of the world are ignoring the nay-sayers.
(call this option 3 above - as a fallback)

It has (been proven wrong)

Wayne
you said there was proof that AGW had been proven wrong
a) got any evidence?
b) don't forget it's a chaotic system - and that works both ways
difficult to prove it's "yes"
and difficult to prove it's "no"


ferret
like I said, I didn't expect many to answer those points in my post.
so much easier to say "bs" - and / or watch as fauna and other bird life is destroyed - who gives a damn - takes more than that to ruffle your feathers.

Or watch as the extent of deserts increases. "Civilisation leaves bludy great footprints - they are called deserts" .

Personally I'd be real happy if my grandkids could scuba dive on the Barrier Reef (and a stack of other reefs around the world also heading deeper and deeper into troubled times) as I 've been lucky enough to do. And that some of the living colour was around to witness.