Global Warming - How Valid and Serious?

[Smurf1976]

wow -
whilst i disagree with most of your post Kim, I sure as hell find that chemtrail website the weirdest damned thing I've ever seen .
http://imageevent.com/firesat/strangedaysstrangeskies?z=3&c=4&n=1&m=-1&w=4&x=0&p=14

Only thing that comes close maybe is the Tasmanian aerial spraying of the forestry (and the Tassie Devils) - (and the people living or bushwalking at the margins etc thereof)

Anyone know what it's all about - this Chemtrail stuff?

I'm pretty sure that "crop dusting" as it is known occurs in most or all Australian states. Could be wrong there but that's my understanding.

Only difference in Tas is that one of the crops is trees. Farmers literally puting in a whole crop of nothing but trees. Not really a wise idea IMO but I'll give the politics a rest and avoid mentioning whose idea it was in the first place.

 

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the debate over IF chemtrails exist is over. the question is why it is happening.

google chemtrails...

 

[2020hindsight]

Just wait until we use all the conventional natural gas trying to cut emissions from power stations then end up mining methane, losing most of it to the atmosphere in the process, to make motor fuel, plastics and fertilizer.

...
we need some more of those fire eating dragons m8

 

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http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/live/articles/news/news.html?in_article_id=544088&in_page_id=1770

It was the coldest Easter in the UK for more than 40 years - and we may not see spring weather until April


By TOM KELLY - More by this author »

Last updated at 10:08am on 25th March 2008

Comments (37)

The icy Easter weekend was declared the coldest for 44 years yesterday as forecasters warned of more bad weather for the rest of the month.

Snow and sleet storms made it a miserable trip home from the bank holiday break for up to 16million motorists last night.

And the Met Office could not offer any solace to those returning to work this morning after the first white Easter for more than a decade.

click on link above to continue..

 

[--B--]

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/live/articles/news/news.html?in_article_id=544088&in_page_id=1770

It was the coldest Easter in the UK for more than 40 years - and we may not see spring weather until April


By TOM KELLY - More by this author »

Last updated at 10:08am on 25th March 2008

Comments (37)

The icy Easter weekend was declared the coldest for 44 years yesterday as forecasters warned of more bad weather for the rest of the month.

Snow and sleet storms made it a miserable trip home from the bank holiday break for up to 16million motorists last night.

And the Met Office could not offer any solace to those returning to work this morning after the first white Easter for more than a decade.

click on link above to continue..

when its cold its "climate change"

and when its hot its "global warming"

its simple really...

(well thats the tactic of the AGW hypist nutters who regularly distort facts to convince the gullible public we're all about to die...)

 

[Wysiwyg]

when its cold its "climate change"

and when its hot its "global warming"

its simple really...

(well thats the tactic of the AGW hypist nutters who regularly distort facts to convince the gullible public we're all about to die...)

Good point --b--, i hope you believe that the governments of the world need to implement changes to reduce fossil fuel pollution.

I`m in oilers so it is hypocritical of me to say. Matter of fact human life is one big hypocrisy.

 

[Smurf1976]

Well it's damn cold down here right now. 9 degrees outside, heading down to 7 overnight with a top of 14 tomorrow. Can I claim that to be global cooling?

With the above normal ice buildup around the world I'm starting to seriously doubt the whole global warming thing. Believed it until now, even done my own experiments in the lab. But when ice keeps building up it starts to look rather iffy.

 

[2020hindsight]

Remember , we are talking about GW now, (not AGW) - and so many of you blokes seem to be happily putting yourselves into category 1 in the poll.

So - based on a few cold days, (whether England or Aus) - I hope you don't mind if I smile while you confidently announce that global warming is wrong - (and don't forget that Adelaide has just had a once in 3000 year event with its 15 day string of hot days)

http://www.bom.gov.au/lam/climate/levelthree/climch/clichv3.htm
Note the logo that the BOM use. -
Tell you what - you blokes give me a forecast of the weather (short term weather or long term weather/climate), - and suppose it disagrees with BOM - then maybe you won't be offended if I take their opinion over your self-proclaimed expertise.

Long-Term Temperature Variations in Australia
Temperature variations over Australia during the past century have been consistent with global trends in showing an increase in the mean temperature (average of daytime maximum and overnight minimum temperatures) over most of the continent. The last two decades have been particularly warm, with many of the warmest years on record having occurred during the 1980s and 1990s.

Temperature Moderation
Overnight temperatures tend to have increased more than daytime temperatures resulting in a decrease in the diurnal temperature range (the difference between the maximum and minimum temperatures during the day).

Consistent with the warming trend is an increase in the frequency of warm days and nights, and a decrease in the number of cool days and nights. There has also been a significant decrease in the number of minimum temperatures below 0°C and a trend toward a shorter frost season, particularly in inland eastern Australia.

Most of Australia has experienced a warming trend in maximum temperature during recent decades. However, this trend is not uniform throughout the country; the strongest warming trend being in inland Queensland, northeast South Australia and northern Tasmania

PS Don't ask me why smurf - but Northern Tas is apparently gonna experience stronger global warming than Hobart

 

[wayneL]

Should we have taken the climate scientists hypotheses as gospel in the 70's when they told us all to start planning our igloos?

Pffffft

As far as Australia and one in 3000 year events... ummm, just how many years of accurately recorded temps do we have for Adelaide?

We don't know whether the last 200 years has been the anomaly or not. One in 3000 indeed.

Pffffft

Fat tails my friend.

 

[2020hindsight]

Nassim Taleb:

"Extremistan: the province where the total can be conceivably impacted by a single observation."

http://www.isse.ucar.edu/extremevalues/extreme.html

wayne - please clarify - are you now saying that GW is wrong ?

or that AGW is wrong ?

 

[Smurf1976]

My point is simply that most of the more recent data I can find points to warming having stopped a decade ago.

This Summer was hot and dry. It's claimed as proof of climate change.

Last Winter was outright freezing across SE Australia. Not a word is said in relation to climate change.

Rather obvious bias in reporting there IMO. Why are we constantly being told to act without up to date reporting of actual events?

Maybe it's real, I suspect it is to some extent. But that's no reason not to tell both sides of the story and engage in proper science. The failure to do so is making me, and no doubt many thinking others, increasingly suspicious. If you're telling the truth then generally you don't need to hide the facts...

 

[wayneL]

Nassim Taleb:

"Extremistan: the province where the total can be conceivably impacted by a single observation."

http://www.isse.ucar.edu/extremevalues/extreme.html

wayne - please clarify - are you now saying that GW is wrong ?

or that AGW is wrong ?

I'm saying that GW could be right, it could be wrong.

* The "warming data" AKA the hockey stick graph has been challenged.
* "We" are not given all the data, only what they want us to see.
* Scientists are infamous (they are human after all, subject to all cognitive biases that the average schmuck is) for distorting or omitting data to suit their hypotheses. (Both sides of the debate to be fair)
* As far as the 3000 year event... That's just sh!te, built on a scientific and statistical foundation of sh!te, that any grade 10 science pupil could rapidly expose as sh!te.

Humans have the capacity to change climate, but it won't be due to CO2. As I keep saying ad nauseum... wrong target.

Deforestation, environmental degradation & general pollution are far more pressing, yet these schmucks do SFA about that.

Follow the money.

 

[2020hindsight]

well wayne, you say it's sh1te.. (grade 10 students etc)
not sure how you draw that conclusion, but IFF he conceded it might be 1500 year - would you call that irrelavant as well .?

btw , same odds (allegedly) as throwing 12 heads in a row.

so for 1500 year event you only need 11 heads in a row I'm guessing.

Anyway, I'm not your competition in this argument - this bloke is.

Note that it's a 1 in 3000 year event in Adelaide, and 1 in 200 year in Loxton.

http://news.theage.com.au/adelaide-heatwave-one-in-3000-years/20080318-2034.html

Dr Grace has been working with the South Australian Research and Development Institute (SARDI) Climate Applications Unit to gain a better understanding of heatwaves in wine growing regions of the state.

He has developed what is believed to be the first heatwave occurrence model, based on statewide dating back more than 100 years, and statistics from the past 30 years collected at the Bureau of Meteorology at Kent Town in Adelaide.

"This heat wave is close to being off the scale," he said.

"Adelaide, with 15 days over 35 degrees, returns a one in 3,000 year event."

Dr Grace said Nuriootpa, in the Barossa Valley, recorded 13 days over 35 degrees - a one in 1,000 year event, while Loxton in the state's Riverland had 15 days over 35 degrees which was a one in 200 year event.

Adelaide's 15-day heatwave surpassed the previous capital city heatwave record of Perth, which experienced 10 days over 35 degrees in February 1988.

The all-time national heatwave record was set in Marble Bar in northern Western Australia, which had 160 consecutive days at or above 37.8 degrees celsius (or 100 degrees fahrenheit) in the summer of 1923-24

 

[wayneL]

well wayne, you say it's sh1te.. (grade 10 students etc)
not sure how you draw that conclusion, but IFF he conceded it might be 1500 year - would you call that irrelavant as well .?

btw , same odds (allegedly) as throwing 12 heads in a row.

so for 1500 year event you only need 11 heads in a row I'm guessing.

Anyway, I'm not your competition in this argument - this bloke is.

Note that it's a 1 in 3000 year event in Adelaide, and 1 in 200 year in Loxton.

http://news.theage.com.au/adelaide-heatwave-one-in-3000-years/20080318-2034.html

Mate, comparing the linear to the chaotic is, dare I say, sh!te.

Comparing the probabilities of a coin toss to weather events is like comparing (I was going to say apple to oranges, but no) a mustard seed to a whirlwind.

Once more, to suggest a normal distribution of outcomes in weather events is at best, naive , and at worst, outright manipulation.

It is a complete prostitution and bastardization of statistics.

 

[2020hindsight]

Mate, comparing the linear to the chaotic is, dare I say, sh!te.

Comparing the probabilities of a coin toss to weather events is like comparing (I was going to say apple to oranges, but no) a mustard seed to a whirlwind.

Once more, to suggest a normal distribution of outcomes in weather events is at best, naive , and at worst, outright manipulation.

It is a complete prostitution and bastardization of statistics.

well if we were talking bridges,
and there was a 97% confidence that a certain load would not be exceeded in a given period of time

then that would be pretty close (call it identical) to a 1 in 32 chance of it being exceeded.

and likewise, it would be the exactly the same as throwing a coin 5 times and gettting 5 heads. (2^5) . (quick calc)

why can't you compare coins with probability of return periods?

 

[wayneL]

well if we were talking bridges,
and there was a 97% confidence that a certain load would not be exceeded in a given period of time

then that would be pretty close (call it identical) to a 1 in 32 chance of it being exceeded.

and likewise, it would be the exactly the same as throwing a coin 5 times and gettting 5 heads. (2^5) . (quick calc)

why can't you compare coins with probability of return periods?

A/ I thought you knew something about statistics.
B/ You need to do some reading on chaos theory.

Coin tossing distributions are deterministic and normal in distribution.

Weather distributions are chaotic (in the physics sense) and would have some level of kurtosis. How much, the IPCC shill does not reveal, if indeed that is even able to be determined given such a small sample size.

To reveal the effects of small sample size, have a toy around with sigma on stock market returns, it will reveal this guy as the muppet he is.

 

[2020hindsight]

A/ I thought you knew something about statistics.
B/ You need to do some reading on chaos theory.

Coin tossing distributions are deterministic and normal in distribution.

Weather distributions are chaotic (in the physics sense) and would have some level of kurtosis. How much, the IPCC shill does not reveal, if indeed that is even able to be determined given such a small sample size.

To reveal the effects of small sample size, have a toy around with sigma on stock market returns, it will reveal this guy as the muppet he is.

wayne
you are out of step with the designer of every bridge you have ever been across.
cos "100 year return period" (wind flood whatever), and "1 chance in 100 of happening in any given year" are treated as near as dammit identical. (no need to go to 5 decimal points in these things btw)

 

[wayneL]

wayne
you are out of step with the designer of every bridge you have ever been across.
cos "100 year return period" (wind flood whatever), and "1 chance in 100 of happening in any given year" are treated as near as dammit identical. (no need to go to 5 decimal points in these things btw)

Bridge design is a whole 'nuther bowl of wax, and for the purposes of this discussioin, entirely irrelevant.

 

[wayneL]

Small sample sizes on chaotic systems:

If we accept that the stock market is a chaotic system, then we can model sigma on various sample sizes. The stock market is handy in this regard in that we have a 3000 event sample size to play with. (while not claiming any similarity to weather patterns, just an exercise in statistics)

Looking at the SP500, sigma (defined historical volatility - annualized) using a 3000 event sample is 18%.

However, if we use a 200 day sample size (roughly the sample size available with Adelaide weather) we have a significant variance of sigma over the last 2,800 days with a low of ~9.5% and a high of ~29%. Enough to blow apart assumptions based on small sample sizes.

Just as option writers with rigid assumptions of sigma based on small sample sizes get themselves blown up, weather assumptions of x years events based on the last 200 years data would appear to be ludicrous.

 

[numbercruncher]

Another worrying sign from our warming oceans

WASHINGTON (AFP) - Antarctica's massive Wilkins Ice Shelf has begun disintegrating under the effects of global warming, satellite images by the University of Colorado's National Snow and Ice Data Center showed.

The collapse of a substantial section of the shelf was triggered February 28 when an iceberg measuring 41 by 2.4 kilometers (25.5 by 1.5 miles) broke off its southwestern front.

That movement led to disintegration of the shelf's interior, of which 414 square kilometers (160 square miles) have already disappeared, scientists say.

http://au.news.yahoo.com/080326/19/169kq.html