Global Warming - How Valid and Serious?

[wayneL]

At last someone places in juxtaposition the economy and the environment.

Though I stick to my contention it is the holistic view of the environment we should be focusing on, not the inconclusive science of AGW.

 

[2020hindsight]

At last someone places in juxtaposition the economy and the environment.

Though I stick to my contention it is the holistic view of the environment we should be focusing on, not the inconclusive science of AGW.

wayne, I don't think you can say that Gore is an extremist any more, when Suzuki goes the extra yards and wants pollies jailed for not listening!

:topic off topic with respect to warming - but sorta relevant in that the Tassie Devils are almost certainly a victim of some man made disease -

and agreeing with your point that fixing the environment with cost dollars... (and/or the problem has partially arisen from the chase for dollars)

THis was Johnny Howard's reaction to the proposal to spend real money to help the Tassie Devils

John Howard laughs at the plight of the tassie devil

 

[wayneL]

wayne, I don't think you can say that Gore is an extremist any more, when Suzuki goes the extra yards and wants pollies jailed for not listening!

I'll forgive Suzuki's muppetry on AGW because as a zoologist, he knows SFA about climate; and he does other great environmental work. He is multidimensional, rather than a single issue, vested interest zealot with ulterior motives like Al Bore.

 

[Smurf1976]

:topic off topic with respect to warming - but sorta relevant in that the Tassie Devils are almost certainly a victim of some man made disease -

Agreed though I think it now spreads devil to devil without the need for ongoing chemical exposure. 3 likely sources come to mind as the original trigger looking at the map and noting where it started (NE Tas). All those sources are man-made chemical related.

 

[2020hindsight]

Here's a summary of Prof Garnaut's interim report.
He's the one who the Govt are going to base their short term goals on.
The implied accusation at Bali was that Aus was going to crawl out from - or back down from - their proclaimations of global concern ( after all it was only a couple of weeks after the election). - and hide behind an academics report. The implication of the criticism was that the Govt were playing for time , and giving it to a "tame expert".

Turns out he wants , not 60% by 2050 - but 90% !!

Penny Wong has been forced to say - 60% will do quite nicely thank you

But the goal for year2020 is still to be defined, and looks like he will recommend at least 20%.

proposals for ETS to follow (emissions trading scheme)

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/02/21/2169028.htm

Aust 'most vulnerable' to climate change: Garnaut
Posted 4 hours 27 minutes ago
Updated 3 hours 8 minutes ago

A report by economist Ross Garnaut has warned Australia must take a lead role in tackling climate change or risk becoming the most badly damaged country in the developed world.

Professor Garnaut has handed down his interim report on carbon emissions targets and the creation of an emissions trading scheme today.

The report was commissioned by the federal, state and territory governments to help develop major policies on climate change.

Professor Garnaut says Australia's large agricultural sector and a reliance on trade with developing nations in Asia, that are also put at risk by rising temperatures, makes it one of the most vulnerable countries in the developed world.

"Without action we are running towards dangerous points more quickly that a lot of the earlier analysis has suggested," he said.

He says Australia needs to play a lead role in reducing greenhouse gas emissions by going beyond its stated target of a 60 per cent cut by 2050. But Professor Garnaut says Australia is relatively well-placed to convert strong action on climate change into economic opportunity.

The report also sets out an initial guide to the design of an emissions trading scheme.

State and federal leaders have been briefed on the details of the interim report in Adelaide.

South Australian Premier Mike Rann says it paints a very sobering picture for the global community.

"Essentially what I'm sure that you will find out is that in the last five years and certainly since the modelling done by Sir Nicholas Stern, things are much worse for the world in terms of global warming than previously believed," he said.

Western Australian Premier Alan Carpenter says the report has a blunt warning.

"What Ross Garnaut has done is basically tell us, 'less time than you thought, more action than you thought, maybe in a shorter space of time'," Mr Carpenter said.

"There needs to be a sense of urgency. This isn't a matter just for governments, it's a matter for the ordinary people of the states."


Policy

Climate Change Minister Penny Wong has welcomed the interim report and says it will help to inform the Federal Government as it develops its policies.

But she says Labor will not go past its election commitment of a 60 per cent cut in emissions by 2050.

"Obviously unlike the previous government we have said we would be cognisant of the science," she said.

"But the Government's commitment is the one we made prior to the election and that we took to the Australian people, which is a reduction of 60 per cent by 2050. "That is the approach the Government will take."

Prime Minister Kevin Rudd has told Parliament it is vital the Government gets its climate change policies right. "It's critical for the economy, critical for families, critical for the environment, critical for national security," he said. "After 12 years of inaction on the whole question of climate change it's time that Australia led the international community on this question, it's time we had a government that led the national debate on this question.

"That's what needs to be done now, that's what this Government is now engaged in."

The final report will be released in September.

The Climate Institute says the report is an important starting point for a mature debate about climate change policy.

Chief executive John Connor says it outlines how Australian can become a low-carbon economy.

"What's significant is that he highlights that Australia is one of the countries most at risk from climate change, but also has most to gain from early action on climate change," Mr Connor said.

"So this is a real important curtain-raiser on a mature debate that we need to have, and that needs to look at strong action and decisive action."

 

[treefrog]

Global-warming is a long-term issue. Human effects are the cause of about 5% - the other 95% is natural

.

this is a little out of date - '06 I think and of debatable accuracy

does anyone have up to date "unbiased" proportions

what comes to mind is the risk we spend big on the man made aspects but see little difference - kevvy 0'sevvy is having second thoughts I suspect - welcome to govt I suppose

wonders about the economy going into a tailspin from the costs

oh well, if we must we must - if the market won't go up just keep things short!

 

[2020hindsight]

1. this is a little out of date - '06 I think and of debatable accuracy - does anyone have up to date "unbiased" proportions

2. what comes to mind is the risk we spend big on the man made aspects but see little difference - kevvy 0'sevvy is having second thoughts I suspect - welcome to govt I suppose

3. wonders about the economy going into a tailspin from the costs

4. oh well, if we must we must - if the market won't go up just keep things short!

1. tf, well the difference between the red line and the green line is man made (according to IPCC - as per David Attenborough's youtube)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S9ob9WdbXx0

2, 3, and 4. Listening to Prof Garnaut on ABC, he emphasises that the cost of acting now is a fraction of what it will be if we delay.

 

[2020hindsight]

Just on that point ..
"mid latitude wind patterns / storm patterns moving poleward"
a strictly amateur observation, but has anyone noticed how
a) the highs south around the bight seem to be getting further south, and
b) so too the intense lows causing the rain off qld seem to be creeping down the coast

You'd have to assume that Tassie is missing out on the roaring 40's (?) - hence on the rain.

http://www.metservice.co.nz/default/index.php?alias=month_feature_july_2007

The subtropical ridge. As far as New Zealand is concerned the character of the weather for each season is determined by the position of the subtropical ridge. This is the zone (in yellow on these maps) that divides the trade winds of tropics apart from the ‘roaring 40s’ of the southern Ocean. It marks the path taken by the HIGH pressure systems that occasionally can be seen tracking across our daily weather maps. This zone is dry and sunny zone and wherever it gets stuck it brings droughts and bushfire weather.

The average sea level pressure systems in July from http://geography.uoregon.edu The red line is the Intertropical Convergence zone. Note how the subtropical ridge hugs Australia, allowing the westerlies of the Roaring 40s to visit New Zealand
The average sea level pressure systems in January from http://geography.uoregon.edu The red line is the Intertropical Convergence zone. Note how the subtropical ridge has shifted south into the Australian Bight, and has more latitude to wander across New Zealand.


A seasonal outlook comments on the weather characteristics of the coming season. It may comment on what type of weather pattern is most likely over the next season, or how wind and rain may behave when compared with its monthly average. It doesn’t pick out the timing of daily weather variations. Each season tends to unravel differently from the climatic average, and there is value in trying to anticipate these variations. To do this we need to apply the scientific method but with some markers that change only slowly from month to month and that can be linked with the average behavior of atmospheric circulations. The parameters we use for seasonal outlooks are sea-surface temperatures and its variations. A seasonal forecaster uses maps of the sea-surface temperature anomaly (SST) much like a weather forecaster uses an isobar map. The SST changes slowly and can be tracked from month to month, much like isobar maps can be tracked from day to day. SST changes can (with the help of computer models) be extrapolated into the future to help anticipate how the coming season with vary from its “normal climate”. We have identified some SST patterns which encourage certain behavior patterns in the atmospheric circulations that make up the weather.

http://geography.uoregon.edu/envchange/clim_animations/gifs/hgt500winds_web.gif

 

[2020hindsight]

http://www.weatherzone.com.au/synoptic.jsp
Here are isobar maps for today and next week - (a big contrast btw) - but in each case the highs are way way south - and NZ and Tassie will miss the roaring 40's next week you'd think.

 

[Smurf1976]

What? The wind's going to stop too?!!!

First the whales ran out so had to stop using them.
Then importing coal became unreliable and too expensive.
Then oil got expensive too.
Then the rivers were placed off limits.
Then we couldn't see through all the wood smoke so had to stop that.
Then it stopped raining.
And now the wind is going to stop too.

Looks like we're doomed to shiver in the dark down here no matter what we try.

Not to worry though, there's always a cause for optimism. Just build the power plants somewhere else...

http://www.hydro.com.au/home/Corpor..._package_to_showcase_Tasmanian_innovation.htm

PS off topic but my new cat that I've had since about 10:30 tonight has settled down next the keyboard. Just turned up on the doorstep (literally) and seems quite friendly. Looks like I'm buying cat food tomorrow morning...

 

[2020hindsight]

Not to worry though, there's always a cause for optimism. Just build the power plants somewhere else...

http://www.hydro.com.au/home/Corpor..._package_to_showcase_Tasmanian_innovation.htm

Hydro Tasmania Consulting has been awarded a contract to supply and construct a suite of six mini hydro plants for Melbourne Water.

wow, sweet!.

the $25 million contract .....

producing some 40-gigawatt hours annually, which is equivalent to the electricity for around 5 000 homes and will reduce up to 52,400 tonnes of carbon dioxide emissions each year.

just doing some sums here smurf - but $25 mill - for 5000 homes
$5,000 per home. - I hope those 5000 families ( = 1 suburb) appreciate it.
http://www.geelongaustralia.com.au/library/pdf/5053/36.pdf

(ok - hypothetical families if you prefer).

PS off topic but my new cat that I've had since about 10:30 tonight has settled down next the keyboard. Just turned up on the doorstep (literally) and seems quite friendly. Looks like I'm buying cat food tomorrow morning...

yep - new animals / people just keep on being born - opening their eyes to the world for the first time, ignorant of any probems - real or imagined whatever - unable to comprehend even why or how they got here - life goes on - kittens play - babies laugh - funny isn't it Gotta think of that one over a cup of tea (too early for a philosophical beer).

PS youth hopefully holds the key (but at least we can give em a fighting chance)

 

[Smurf1976]

just doing some sums here smurf - but $25 mill - for 5000 homes
$5,000 per home. - I hope those 5000 families ( = 1 suburb) appreciate it.
http://www.geelongaustralia.com.au/library/pdf/5053/36.pdf

Renewable energy, with the exception of biomass, is capital intensive.

If it were built today, the Tasmanian hydro system would cost about $22,000 per person (that is, total cost divided by the total population of Tas). Even if the power produced for business use was excluded and it were scaled down just to supply homes then it's still over $10,000 per house. And that doesn't include transmission and distribution or even meters.

The only thing that makes the finances work is inflation. Build it when inflation is low but rising and it works quite nicely. Get that bit reversed and it becomes a massive financial liability.

Building renewable energy, particularly hydro, and making it profitable is an exercise in market timing as much as it is in engineering.

 

[2020hindsight]

Building renewable energy,... is an exercise in market timing as much as it is in engineering.

Does that mean to avoid making charcoal we have to learn the cha cha?

PS I know how to mark time m8, - but market timing i'm lousy at

 

[2020hindsight]

http://www.abc.net.au/unleashed/stories/s2171917.htm
Damned if I can tell if this is tongue in cheek -
or more accurately "a dollar each way"

excerpt:-

The science of climate change is, I'll admit, quite compelling. And there are a few home truths that are simply inescapable. For example, the environment is a profoundly important part of human life. Without it, we would have nowhere to live.

However - and it's a big however - environmentalism itself is causing a schism between two emerging types of people. Either you are on the side of the righteous, who only strictly adhere to using the half-flush button when they wee, seek to power their homes using the sun and don't bathe adequately, or you're on the side of the damned, who refuse to give up their four wheel drives, leave the lights on while they sleep and who champion the cause of personal nuclear reactors in the home.

We must decide. What side will we be on? Are you prepared to give yourself over to an unshakeable belief that the world is slowly dying, and that it is anthropogenic warming that is hastening the earth's untimely demise?

Sadly, it appears that the choice is being made for us. With a hard-sell "get your message absolutely everywhere, all at once" marketing push that rivals Coca Cola and McDonalds combined, the environmental movement has well and truly become a force to be reckoned with.

It's at this point that we can expect the sandal-wearing earth worshippers to moan quietly into their collective beards. Because the "message" is getting through - but it's been corrupted on the way. The environment itself has been gleefully co-opted by the incessant bogeyman of Capitalism. Saving the environment has become big business - and there are a number of people getting rich off the back of a burgeoning global panic.

We were told to install energy efficient light globes in our homes, and so we did. But what we weren't told is these "green" globes come complete with a 5mg payload of mercury. It's quite toxic to humans and the environment - so much so that the manufacturers recommend that, should you break one in your home, you might like to go stand outside for half an hour. This serves two purposes: You get to spend 30 minutes communing with nature and it gives the mercury vapour time to dissipate.

But I digress.

The signs of the impending apocalypse are all there. Global warming will cause a rise in sea levels, nations will drown, species will disappear and the earth will become uninhabitable. The message is simple. We are all going to die, because we are the nastiest sinners of all: Polluters.

And woe betides those who choose to ignore the Gospel of Al Gore. Non-believers are pilloried in the press, and damned by the court of public opinion. Those who don't adhere to the view that global warming is the end of the world are sandwiched somewhere on the social spectrum between third world dictators and holocaust deniers.

It's a small wonder they're not put in stocks out the front of the Town Hall, so that the true believers might have the opportunity to hurl rotten fruit and vegetables (organically grown and pesticide free, where possible) at them for their blasphemy.

So what are we to do? The answer is simple. Sit back, crack a beer, and see what happens. Our rapidly growing obsession with climate control is entirely irrational. Like all manias, those in the grip of the madness cannot be reasoned with.

Like Henny Penny with dreadlocks, the doomsayers will scream that the sky is falling - a message we've been hearing as long as human beings could speak. Whether it's God or Mother Earth, someone or something always seems to be angry enough with humans to be doing their best to wipe us all out.

It's nothing to be afraid of. Quit panicking, and do your small part. It's just like going to church - it'll take about an hour a week to make the changes we need. Bathe less. Eat less. Walk more. And cheerily point the finger of blame for global warming at developing nations, because there's no possible way we could have caused this problem ... is there?

 

[2020hindsight]

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/02/25/2171204.htm

Desperate times call for tough leadership
By David Shearman
Posted Mon Feb 25, 2008 9:12am AEDT

When Professor Garnaut was asked to prepare his report, there was a feeling around the traps that the report would be conservative and would probably fit within the confines of modest political action. However, Professor Ross Garnaut has shown that he is his own man.

The Stern report was important because it took the issue of climate change into the realm of economics. All governments could then understand that this was a problem within their market philosophy rather than an environmental phenomenon fomented by the environmental movement.

The Garnaut interim report continues this economic journey and seems to tell a story of personal revelation. It is a story seen on so many occasions when an intelligent person has to comprehend the vast IPCC scientific studies, a task which takes many weeks. The response is "My God, what have we let ourselves in for!" Garnaut doesn't use these words but his analysis and interim thoughts create a sense of urgency.

etcetc

 

[Smurf1976]

I saw an interesting program about the sustainability of cities, focusing on the greenhouse emissions issue, on SBS tonight.

Bottom line is that only one out of all the commentators and audience "gets it" about the oil situation. The rest seemed to agree with the solutions but totally missed the point of what they are supposed to be achieving. Either that or they're too terrified to admit to the real problem and are using "climate change" as a clever mask for what is really "using less oil".

If climate change was the real issue then they'd have focused on what heats the shower, not how people get to work once they've had it.

 

[2020hindsight]

If climate change was the real issue then they'd have focused on what heats the shower, not how people get to work once they've had it.

well m8, the day will come we'll all work from home - in our pyjamas or whatever - shoes off, toes enjoying glorious feedom -
and it won't even matter if we have a shower or not.

(In exactly the same way that you can bet on the stock exchange like this - in your dressing gown if you wish - much more convenient than having to meet the dress code at the casino )

PS I eventually discovered that that plasma screen was a 50 inch - that it is 560 watts , and that's considerably more than the 42" (but much less than what I claimed b4). Still my friend tells me he wishes he'd bought the 42" rather than the 50" lol. "I can't move in my flamin room without running into the damned thing - AND I get a sore neck watching the tennis"

 

[2020hindsight]

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/03/11/2185737.htm?section=justin

Most Australians support Kyoto: poll
Posted 55 minutes ago

A new poll has found that 7 per cent of Australians still oppose Prime Minister Kevin Rudd's act to ratify the Kyoto protocol to cut greenhouse gas emissions.

The survey of 1,200 people found 64 per cent supported the move, but 29 per cent were still undecided.

 

[Aussiejeff]

Very interesting announcement today by the QLD Government...

"Queensland homes using solar power will be paid more for the excess energy they generate for the electricity grid.

Under the state government's Solar Bonus Scheme, the "feed-in tariff" for solar powered homes will be boosted to 44 cents per kilowatt hour."

Full article in the Brisbane Times here:

http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/new...for-solar-power/2008/03/11/1205125871035.html

OK Brumby ... ON YER HORSE, VARMINT, an' GIT US VICS THA SAME DEAL!!!



Good to see some steps in the right direction, anyways.

 

[tigerboi]

Global warming?? dribble..the UK just had its coldest winter since 1966,42 years,aslong as ive been alive..the ice in greenland is the biggest in 15 years.this is a UN run campaign through Al Gore.failed politician looking for a stage to sprout his rubbish.i find it amazing so called smart people believe an ex politician on science,pseudo at the best.wake up to this mesmerising "religion" for what it is.utter dribble that 50% of scientists disagree with...tb.
http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/story/0,22049,21543358-5001024,00.html
even this guy knows its all fake!