- Joined
- 30 March 2013
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Hi Dave,
I believe you should be wary of purchasing any of the GMA packages without a much more rigorous assessment than just a few days or weeks trading a dummy account, the reason being that so few trades is just not a statistically significant sample if you want to be reasonably sure of expected results over, say, a year.
I have extracted and analysed all the data available on the twitter feed. Here's a summary of some of my calculations for the 12mths beg. April 2012 to end March 2013:
package: global-11 global-7 global-3
1st hr trades:
wins 1st hr: 826 657 280
losses 1st hr: 773 635 278
total 1st hr: 1599 1292 558
2nd hr trades:
wins 2nd hr: 402 328 137
losses 2nd hr: 371 307 141
total 2nd hr: 773 635 278
total wins: 1228 985 417
total losses : 1144 942 419
total trades:: 2372 1927 836
OK, so this gives strike rates of 51.8%, 51.1%, 49.9% resp. Not too flash really.
However, since Global doesn't count losing 1st hr trades because they trade them again in the 2nd hr, they can claim "success rates" of 77%, 76% & 75%, resp. Same numbers, slippery definition. (Please see my previous post with my analogy about tossing heads or tails.)
Given a nominal profit on winning trades of 95%, then long-term you must expect average returns of 49.2%, 48.6%, 47.4% resp., calculated using their own results available publicly on Twitter & Facebook!! I can't see how you can make a sustained profit this way, compounding notwithstanding!
You will have good weeks/months and you will have bad weeks/months. I think you cracked it for a short-term good run in your dummy account. If you had bought a GMA package 12 months ago and traded with real money, where would you be now?
BTW, I would buy a package tomorrow if GMA could thoroughly, accurately and transparently demonstrate that they did, and can, sustain actual strike rates of over 75% over the long-term (eg, 12mths or more). Please keep us posted about what you find out at your appoinment and your results if you decide to go ahead.
all the best
Jen
I believe you should be wary of purchasing any of the GMA packages without a much more rigorous assessment than just a few days or weeks trading a dummy account, the reason being that so few trades is just not a statistically significant sample if you want to be reasonably sure of expected results over, say, a year.
I have extracted and analysed all the data available on the twitter feed. Here's a summary of some of my calculations for the 12mths beg. April 2012 to end March 2013:
package: global-11 global-7 global-3
1st hr trades:
wins 1st hr: 826 657 280
losses 1st hr: 773 635 278
total 1st hr: 1599 1292 558
2nd hr trades:
wins 2nd hr: 402 328 137
losses 2nd hr: 371 307 141
total 2nd hr: 773 635 278
total wins: 1228 985 417
total losses : 1144 942 419
total trades:: 2372 1927 836
OK, so this gives strike rates of 51.8%, 51.1%, 49.9% resp. Not too flash really.
However, since Global doesn't count losing 1st hr trades because they trade them again in the 2nd hr, they can claim "success rates" of 77%, 76% & 75%, resp. Same numbers, slippery definition. (Please see my previous post with my analogy about tossing heads or tails.)
Given a nominal profit on winning trades of 95%, then long-term you must expect average returns of 49.2%, 48.6%, 47.4% resp., calculated using their own results available publicly on Twitter & Facebook!! I can't see how you can make a sustained profit this way, compounding notwithstanding!
You will have good weeks/months and you will have bad weeks/months. I think you cracked it for a short-term good run in your dummy account. If you had bought a GMA package 12 months ago and traded with real money, where would you be now?
BTW, I would buy a package tomorrow if GMA could thoroughly, accurately and transparently demonstrate that they did, and can, sustain actual strike rates of over 75% over the long-term (eg, 12mths or more). Please keep us posted about what you find out at your appoinment and your results if you decide to go ahead.
all the best
Jen
I Can say at least I have had the benefit of a dummy account with GMA for a short period trading up to 12 trades a day using their daily advice texts for a few days on a dummy $10,000 account, my experience was over $2,400 net profit in that time, on their advice.
I'm aware the the entry price is huge but their Global 16 site at a $46,900 entry giving me even $1500 pm would be a great return over 5 years.
So if some of you guys out there can come up with something solid in the way of proof that its a scam please let me know as I have an appointment with them this week.