GFC 2

[Ves]

I don't have access to charts anymore, but from memory the biggest rally in history occurred from 2000 onwards(with a couple of hiccups along the way). I would expect to see the market return back to whatever it was around 98-00, and then some. timeframe? it would happen in a couple of years or less. but we all know the governments are going to do what they can to prevent it, so the low may be drawn at to as long as 4-8 years away. you can see the path xjo was taking after the gfc, it was headed right back to where it wanted to be before the meddling began.

same thing with house prices, they will test prices seen pre-the new millennium.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^DJI+Interactive#symbol=^dji;range=my;co mpare=;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=o n;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined;

Here is a DJIA chart dating back to the crash in 1930. I think it puts things into perspective. Check it out using a log scale, I find it is easier to view that way.

 

[young-gun]

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^DJI+Interactive#symbol=^dji;range=my;co mpare=;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=o n;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined;

Here is a DJIA chart dating back to the crash in 1930. I think it puts things into perspective. Check it out using a log scale, I find it is easier to view that way.

thanks v,

if this chart doesnt worry people then i dont know what would. i thought the run on xjo started a little later than 1995 but i could be wrong. looking at this i wouldn't be surprised to see the dow eventually bottom out between 4-6k. they've tried their best to keep that hockey stick going.

 

[MrBurns]

Be interesting Monday, if we stabilise not so bad, if we tank again and I mean another 80 to 100 points, I think it will be time to pack up and go home.

 

[young-gun]

Be interesting Monday, if we stabilise not so bad, if we tank again and I mean another 80 to 100 points, I think it will be time to pack up and go home.

dji was down again, not as steep but down nonetheless. havent checked how europe faired, over 5% down for the week definitely not pretty, as you say monday will be very interesting.

 

[Julia]

I wanna move to where YOU live, moXJO!!

Because I see and hear the opposite story where I live - people and businesses going broke, no-one buying anything but essentials, people saving as much as they can and cutting up their credit cards...

Same where I live, regional Qld SE Coast.
Over the last couple of weeks I've been seeking quotes for some redecorating, new furniture, inhouse building changes etc., and have found stores empty, no customers, just staff standing around. Hard to see how the business owners can sustain paying staff under these conditions.

A major store here "Captain Snooze" has a 70% off "End of lease Sale". The owner told me the landlord has raised the rent to the point where they can't possibly carry on.

 

[MrBurns]

A major store here "Captain Snooze" has a 70% off "End of lease Sale". The owner told me the landlord has raised the rent to the point where they can't possibly carry on.

I had a bit to do with Capt'n Snooze in the early days as a real estate agent.
Landlords wil shoot themselves in the foot greed is not good.

 

[Tyler Durden]

Be interesting Monday, if we stabilise not so bad, if we tank again and I mean another 80 to 100 points, I think it will be time to pack up and go home.

For me, it'll be time to join the party

 

[StumpyPhantom]

For me, it'll be time to join the party

Alright - if you absolutely have to, but just remember to do it with just your own money.

Even your own money has two categories - money you can afford to lose, and money you can't afford to lose. So stick with the former.

There's a third category of course, borrowed money you haven't earned yet (which you definitely cannot afford to lose). Imagine losing that - actually that's hard to imagine, which is why it actualy happens so often.

 

[Smurf1976]

People on here were predicting in 2005-06 that the real estate bubble and CDS's and securitised dodgy loans would send the financial system to the point of meltdown? Well done if you were.

I was reading in 2002 that the US mortgage institutions would inevitably end up in serious trouble as would real estate generally along with the banks and the specific company of General Motors.

The timing of the crisis was always going to be hard to predict, but if you have a boat made of rotting wood and are taking no action to address the problem then it's a fairly safe bet that at some point it will sink. When the storm will arrive is anyone's guess, but that the boat will sink at some point is fairly certain.

 

[StumpyPhantom]

I was reading in 2002 that the US mortgage institutions would inevitably end up in serious trouble as would real estate generally along with the banks and the specific company of General Motors.

The timing of the crisis was always going to be hard to predict, but if you have a boat made of rotting wood and are taking no action to address the problem then it's a fairly safe bet that at some point it will sink. When the storm will arrive is anyone's guess, but that the boat will sink at some point is fairly certain.

That's the wisest sentiment, and one I've heard repeated most often since the onset of GFC1 when all this private debt got converted into public debt. And it just defies belief that you could solve the problem by taking on more debt or by printing more money.

And yet, a combination of foolish optimism, self-delusion or (most probably) trying to make a buck in a temporarily rising market PLUS timing the exit when it all goes pear-shaped has kept the money in there.

So let's hope this is the final cleanout!!

 

[Smurf1976]

Same where I live, regional Qld SE Coast.
Over the last couple of weeks I've been seeking quotes for some redecorating, new furniture, inhouse building changes etc., and have found stores empty, no customers, just staff standing around. Hard to see how the business owners can sustain paying staff under these conditions.

Likewise. Apart from the optimistic words of politicians, I see nothing to suggest that overall business conditions are anything other than outright lousy.

Everywhere I go, I hear what amounts to conversation on the subject of thrift. Common specifics are general supermarket items and electricity bills, but the overall attitude of consumers does seem to have changed to the point that controlling spending has become a priority for many.

 

[numbercruncher]

And on a wider scale the Asian/Indian middle class is about to come online.

Whilst everyone is pulling you up about your wildly bullish wee world moXJO thought id bring it to your attention that one of those bearish alarmist types from BHP also dissagrees with your take on the world .....

Amidst the petty local political noise, the really big message in the speeches by BHP's chairman and CEO this week was entirely missed: implicit in the iron ore demand projections is that India isn't going to do a China, that India won't spectacularly industrialise in the East Asian manner.
The Goldilocks scenario for the Australian economy is that growing commodities demand continues to underwrite our economic growth for decades to come thanks to India picking up the slack as the Chinese economy matures and the surge in its steel intensity comes off the boil.
It has been assumed that India's inevitable industrialisation was running a neat 15 or 17 years behind China and then would be turbo-powered by a population that continues to grow strongly, overtaking China soon enough on its way to 1.6 billion in 2050.

The message from BHP this week is that demand for iron ore flattens out as China's growth trajectory moves into the greater consumption phase from a concentration on construction and infrastructure.

Ipso facto, India doesn't take off.

http://m.smh.com.au/business/bhps-big-message-india-isnt-making-it-20120518-1yv1h.html

 

[Aussiejeff]

That's the wisest sentiment, and one I've heard repeated most often since the onset of GFC1 when all this private debt got converted into public debt. And it just defies belief that you could solve the problem by taking on more debt or by printing more money.

And yet, a combination of foolish optimism, self-delusion or (most probably) trying to make a buck in a temporarily rising market PLUS timing the exit when it all goes pear-shaped has kept the money in there.

So let's hope this is the final cleanout!!

Nay, StumpyP.

Our beloved Gwhizz8 have kissed, backslapped & declared JOBS, JOBS, JOBS, GROWTH, GROWTH, GROWTH (ie DEBT, DEBT, DEBT) is the waaay to go.

Ergo, Mega Debt Bomb QE3.5+ is about to go down.

Fallout = Negative interest rates anybody?

LOL

Personally, metinks the Gwhizz8 meetings are well past their use by date. So much travelling expenses. So much expensive champagne. So much laughable empty rhetoric. An anachronism from the 70's formed after the Great Oil Crisis. It should be put to sleep.

Party on.

 

[Logique]

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^DJI+Interactive#symbol=^dji;range=my;co mpare=;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=o n;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined;

Here is a DJIA chart dating back to the crash in 1930. I think it puts things into perspective. Check it out using a log scale, I find it is easier to view that way.

The classic pattern of a giant Head & Shoulders reversal seemed to have been avoided, so it will be very interesting from here.

 

[young-gun]

The classic pattern of a giant Head & Shoulders reversal seemed to have been avoided, so it will be very interesting from here.

keeping in mind the right shoulder is on steroids...(stimulus)

 

[moXJO]

Whilst everyone is pulling you up about your wildly bullish wee world moXJO thought id bring it to your attention that one of those bearish alarmist types from BHP also dissagrees with your take on the world .....



http://m.smh.com.au/business/bhps-big-message-india-isnt-making-it-20120518-1yv1h.html

Wildly bullish you have got to be kidding me. Sorry I'm not skidding my undies in financial terror. And I did the whole bear thing before.
I'm disagreeing with the drop bears that we will all be eating dirt and living in boxes. If the best way you can make money in this climate is sitting on a bunch of gold then good luck to ya. All I'm seeing is opportunity at the moment, not 'world is going to end' scenarios. So yes I'm not too worried.

The govt is also not currently capitalising on our position in Asia, sooner or later they will get it and strengthen our position.

I wanna move to where YOU live, moXJO!!

Because I see and hear the opposite story where I live - people and businesses going broke, no-one buying anything but essentials, people saving as much as they can and cutting up their credit cards

I'm seeing a change in the way people do business. It's the same as stocks. Don't tap the trend feel the pain. My area was doing it pretty tough a while back (we did have some big industry go down) but seems to have come back well. Those that adapted have done well.
The whole city seems to be changing.

 

[StumpyPhantom]

Good luck to you moXJO - there will be success stories amongst the gloom and yours sounds like one.

Individual stories likes yours aside (and they light the path forward for all individuals and organisations who want to get ahead), the overall picture is still one which is pointing downwards

 

[Logique]

keeping in mind the right shoulder is on steroids...(stimulus)

Yes a good point that, the long term H&S pattern may in other circumstances have been more symmetrical.

 

[numbercruncher]

Wildly bullish you have got to be kidding me. Sorry I'm not skidding my undies in financial terror. And I did the whole bear thing before.
I'm disagreeing with the drop bears that we will all be eating dirt and living in boxes. If the best way you can make money in this climate is sitting on a bunch of gold then good luck to ya. All I'm seeing is opportunity at the moment, not 'world is going to end' scenarios. So yes I'm not too worried.

The govt is also not currently capitalising on our position in Asia, sooner or later they will get it and strengthen our position.



I'm seeing a change in the way people do business. It's the same as stocks. Don't tap the trend feel the pain. My area was doing it pretty tough a while back (we did have some big industry go down) but seems to have come back well. Those that adapted have done well.
The whole city seems to be changing.

Way to change the subject, with unrealistic extremism and all ! /applause .....

So you still Dissagree with the CEO of BHP (and nearly everyone else) ? India's middle class is about to save the Financial world ?

And im with Mojo - good luck to you and your township for having such a booming economy in these stormy times .....

 

[cynic]

it never left:fan

+1

I too eagerly await the demise of the original GFC. GFC1 was hastily swept under a "magical" carpet woven from financial bailouts/stimulus whilst still in its infancy. Now that the financial liquidity is drying up, the "magic" is wearing out. GFC1 is once again rearing its ugly head. It has been well nourished by financial stimulus/bailouts/quantitive easing etc. and has grown even bigger than before.

Hopefully those political/economic geniuses that thought fighting fire with kerosene was a good idea, will learn something from their previouse follies - but I won't be holding my breath!