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Getting feel for SPI open action?

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holyGrill

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Was just generally wondering what factors one would need to peek at at 7:00am (or whenever the close in the morning is) in order to get a feel for which way the SPI200 will open at 9:50 ?

I'm thinking things like:
US S&P500
Oil
Australian Dollar

Any thoughts on this? Also, which websites would be good for this?

I like afr.com but it gives a pretty brief outline only and I've found it doesn't serve as much help in picking a direction.

hG
 
holyGrill said:
How would you look at this?
Click to expand...

No idea on that........

Don't think you will find any way, but some would look at ADRs and the correlations between % moves in the US and Europe, in relation to the SPI and try calculate some type of 'fair value'.

That's all I can think of.
 
MRC & Co said:
No idea on that........

Don't think you will find any way, but some would look at ADRs and the correlations between % moves in the US and Europe, in relation to the SPI and try calculate some type of 'fair value'.

That's all I can think of.
Click to expand...

And ain't that a nightmare to work out, some ADRs lead, some follow, and then there's the conversion ratio, AUD etc. And finally what fund manager wants to do that particular morning.
 
Just wondering:
Is Brent crude the most common contract for oil (ie the most common proxy for the energy market, as the SPI200 is for say the Australian market) ?
http://futuresource.quote.com/markets/market.jsp?id=energy

To save time manually entering values, I was thinking of creating a script (in python/php or something) to scrape some sites for price values and/or news.

Wondering what the thoughts are on getting (and using) news information from sites, whether reading manually or obtaining automatically (possibly classifying into good/bad/none by machine learning or something). Whether there'd be any value in this or would it simply be a waste of time (ie information is out-of-date) and effort?

I'm guessing it probably won't be a complete waste of time as you'd learn alot in the process (about both the markets and programming machines he he).

Will start making notes of opening values and attempt at recognizing patterns and their consequences on the SPI opening. If anyone wants to share ideas / findings, feel free :)

hG
ps: ADRs - they're stocks like BHP that trade on more than one exchange, right? is that what you're referring to?
 
Most of the news services quote US oil contracts - light sweet crude or WTI (West Texas Intermediate).

Probably look for the contracts on the Chicago futures exchange.
 
CL on the NYMEX.

Some algo bots are already trying to trade news I believe, but you would need the fastests news feed and execution, no point if you don't have BOTH of these IMVHO, unless you are taking a longer-term fundamental view.

Yes, correct on ADRs.
 
Cheers MRC.

I am collecting am Close (price at 6:55) and pmClose (price at 16:30) for a few things (using IGmarket's puredeal) including SPX500, gold, AUD, brentCrude.

Hopefully by looking at the change in prevCls/amCls and getting some market news (whatever may be available at 6:55 in the morning! not much I guess?!) one can start to get a feel for which direction the SPI is going to open in ... when my live feed for stocks is good again I'll add some ADR's, in partcular BHP - it must be a fairly big force (large index weighting).

Wondering if anyone's experimented with neural networks / datamining for determining relationships between input parameters and effects on the SPI?

Came across this - what are thoughts?
"Watch out for Australian statistics which are usually announced 11-30am Sydney time also the RBA announces interest rate decisions on the first Tuesday each month at 2-30pm, at these times volatility goes pretty high."
Click to expand...

cheers,
hG
 
Yes, of course volatility goes up at these times, these are fundamental news releases which traders try to interpret quickly in relation to expectations and hit ASAP.

On the rest, sorry can't help you.
 
ARe there any sites that have up-to-the-second news feeds of this kind?
(other than full-blown subscription to bloomberg / reuters which cost thousands)...

Also:
Any reason why the SPI200 would have gapped lower this morning? Is this action predictable to an extent? Gold, Crude and AUD were all up overnight ... Even the S&P500 was ... yet SPI200 gapped lower.

I guess the pre-open orders of the stocks in the index will have alot of influence on the open. And it would depend on the causality effect: do the stocks lead the future or the other way around? (at the open specifically)

hG
 
holyGrill said:
Also:
Any reason why the SPI200 would have gapped lower this morning? Is this action predictable to an extent? Gold, Crude and AUD were all up overnight ... Even the S&P500 was ... yet SPI200 gapped lower.
Click to expand...

If you think we follow these things your way off track.
 
Thanks TH.
But why do you say that? I also noticed you have said in a post before that 60% of the time or so the SPI will do the opposite to what the S&P500 did overnight.

Can I ask what your thoughts are on which factors to look at instead of these?

Trembling Hand said:
If you think we follow these things your way off track.
Click to expand...
 
holyGrill said:
You don't look at ANYTHING else but the SPI when trading it? What about the big guns like BHP, RIO, etc?

News feeds (IR announcements, etc) ... ?
Click to expand...

Not really.

I watch the ES, N225, HSI, K200 but mostly we are lock stepped rather than following and if not we lead more than lag.

Mostly stocks follow futs.... mostly ;)
 

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