GDN - Golden State Resources

Gotta hang out for Para 2 Helpme.!!! Then it will be all straberries and cream for us stayers
They must be a fair way into permit applications, be nice if they gave us a timetable of things to come, which they must have already pencilled in.
Wonder if todays 13 mill shakeout made them take notice of shareholder discontent?

Yes today was very frustrating with GDN especially while watching other mining stocks make news highs.

Its a disappointing day for us GDN'ers...I hold in, realistically there is likely to be more bad news though...p/s sorry if I revved anyone up the wrong way on HC this morning...made a crappy read of the ANN and got very excited and the conversion wrong...it's a pretty poor recovery on a decent reservoir pressure, guess that porosity still leaves a bit to be desired or is there something else down there...I wonder where next...the delay on the U spinoff is very interesting though...do they know other things concerning the upper intervals??? Is there oil in them thar hills/deeper levels?? Sufficient oil? Did the reservoir pressure give them a good gush, and thats what choked the GAS flow rates at depth...there was a huge die-back on flow from 0.5 to 0.2 MMcF, more than you might expect from just in-rush pressure? There is something amiss with the information at hand....normally Ex-Pro would go P&A on this without wasting any more time fraccing at other intervals as its simply not economic...given that the best commercial recovery is going to be around $1.2m US p.a at current prices, how do you expect to keep on keeping on with those existing on-shelf costs?

Let's ask ourselves a few questions...

Is there any advantage to GDN depressing the share price (and their shareholders!) through their dissemination of information to market.

Why is the U date put back 2 weeks? They have the info on the U at hand.

What are they going to achieve in the next 2 weeks at Paradox that requires holding off the U spinoff? Or do they have 2 weeks of pleading to convince the U JV that they still have money in the kitty...

Does 'Commercial' mean 'sell stuff to make money whilst recovering costs?'

Definition of Wildcat - "An oil or natural-gas well drilled in an area not known to be productive"...wildcat is an oiler term, not typically associated with gas where I have been ...I cannot recall seeing Paradox#1 described as a wildcat before, but then I am a lazycat..anyone want to help here?

It's either a race against time or something far less savoury...either way...We are all sitting in the pews and someone really let rip

The glass is twice as big as it needs to be

I liked it in Saudi, where you just had to be careful where you banged in a star picket or there would be an oily mess to clean up..!!!

Why would hold back any "good oil" (good news) Surely if they know there is a commercial quantity of oil, and better gas flows at the higher layers it would be in there interest to release the info to the market.
That way GDN SP gets a wriggle on,and gives some imputus to the entitlements for the u thing. As it stands they may not get a huge percentage of punters picking up the entiltements.
One thing is for sure, they dont read forums like ASF and HC!!

Todays trading for announcing such low results for a interval so much time and money was spent on wasn’t as bad as many would have expected. If no buyers were around at the 30 cent mark the share price could of dropped into low 20’s I would have thought the way the selling started.

There were lots of large purchases today, since can only see the amount of shares each seller sold its hard to know the amount of shares buyers were buying but seeing there were a lot of 50-100 000 share trades there must have been lots of buyers happy to pay 30-33 cents. 87 or more trades today were of a large size from 40-100 000+ shares sold and bought, but not sure how many of the smaller 10-20-30 000 trades added up into larger purchases.

Why would anyone buy 50-100 000 shares in one purchase on a day where bad news was released on a gas interval which had high expectations? I realise $32000 for a 100 000 shares may not be much to many traders and investors, but that is a lot of money to some people and for those willing to buy in such large amounts to me shows either confident in other gas intervals, or just people with lots of money to risk on a speculative stock which would be considered a high risk high reward stock.

0.2mmcf per day is 200mcf per day? Not sure if that’s right but if it is I have found a few different documents that have producing wells at 0.2mmcf per day.

A fracture treatment of the Tyner sand zone in the Redfork #1-17 well has delivered oil production equivalent to approximately 200Mcf per day, almost three times the field average for coal bed methane (CBM) wells in this field.

I realise the above is about coal methane but they still say producing at 200mcf.

Investments LLC and Joseph Shunta of Hybrid Energy Inc. agree to give to the Company an option to purchase a combined Working Interest of 52% in the Pantel Gas Unit #1 in Goliad County, Texas. The Working Interest is limited to the Well Bore Only and is Depth Restricted to 3200 feet. Current production levels have been ranging between 200mcf and 250mcf per day. Engineers have determined that these production levels should remain steady for the next several years. The oil and gas mineral leases associated with this property have been recorded and are official public record at the Goliad County Courthouse in Texas. This non-exclusive option agreement with Energy Royalty Investments, LLC and Hybrid Energy Inc is valid through September 1, 2005. The purchase price to exercise the option is $550,000 and is payable upon closing. The Company hopes to raise the acquisition money through a private placement of equity and debt. This 52%working interest would produce income of between $14,950 and $19,500 per month.

The above is another paragraph I found where they are producing 200mcf per day.

www.bedfordenergy.com on there website have mentioned about some of their producing wells productive at 200mcf per day too. They mention about 160mcf per day for a well at the east chandler project I realise the size of the projects are completely different but just shows there are companies producing commercial quantities at 150-200mcf per day, and gdn can increase this amount when they test other gas intervals.


They have now tested 12561-12599, in a recent announcement the table said testing after the barker creek zone was to test 9845-9858, 10815-10834, 11005-11040. In other reports last year before the gas interval was found at 12561-12599 they had reported saying they believed production would come from 9742-9746, 9930-9960,10714-10765. There are other intervals that may or may not be tested but could assume after the 3 intervals they have mentioned on the tables in recent announcements that those other 3 above would also be tested since they did expect production to come from those zones. Don’t think they would just leave them after the statement they released in a report back in October about those 3 intervals. Those 6 intervals to be tested if they test the 3 others they haven’t mentioned would mean 152 feet of possible gas intervals. Still some gas shows to test, which could help make the well productive.

The next interval they are going to test is the 11016-11031 gas zone, but in today’s report that has now been changed to 11005-11040 an increase of 20 feet. Why would they increase it by so much?

Looking at todays demand and smart money chart it was not what you would expect to see on a high volume day with bad news. The announcement was out around 9:42am today so that gave about 25 minutes before gdn started trading which would have been enough time for people to read the announcement and decide if good or bad.

13 million shares were traded today with a price move from 0.355-0.305. There’s about 180-190 million shares on issue now with the options conversion going through last Friday? Is 13 million shares traded today considered low for such bad news if the news was really that bad when there is 180 million shares on issue? There has been days where over 20 million shares have traded in a day.

Looking at the demand and smart money chart I’ve mentioned is only to show what the market depth is doing which can give you an idea of where a possible price move might happen. Looking at the daily chart from the 04-07-07 the demand blue line started to increase maybe based on expected results. It started at 0.7624 which meant more sellers at end of that day then buyers in the top 5 price levels. On the 05-07-07 the demand finished at 0.8303 for the day. On the 06-07-07 1.0279 is what the demand finished at and today the demand finished at 1.3229 so almost a 100% increase in demand since the 04-07-07. The news which is considered not very good by a lot of people I would of thought the sell side would have been a lot stronger then the buy side which would mean the demand would be under 1.

Today’s intra day chart wasn’t what I thought would of happened after reading the announcement. In the first hour of trading demand had reached 2.5 which meant buyers wanted 2.5 times more shares then sellers wanted to sell. It wasn’t till 11:50am that the demand dropped below 2 but by 12:28 it was under 1 and sellers were selling more shares in the top 5 then buyers were willing to buy. Around 1:30 this changed and buyers were wanting more shares then sellers wanted to sell. The demand did drop below 1 during the day for a total of 1 hour and 24 minutes which isn’t much for a stock that was trading for 6 hours and had released negative news before open. The blue line stayed above the red line most of the day except for 1 hour in today’s trading. This means smart money was entering, which just means a larger amount of shares were being bought then sellers were selling. This is seen in the trades today with a large number of big purchases being bought today. With the news released today I would of assumed no smart money would of entered and the red line being above the blue line, I would have also expected the blue line to stay below 1 all day today with sellers selling out , but the opposite happened all day today with the trading which might suggest someone knows good news is coming out soon and the testing is further advanced then we have been told, or a lot of people are just hoping good news will be out soon.

This is todays chart


Just thought i would share what the market depth was doing today since i thought it was interesting to see the buyers were wanting so many shares today on bad news around the 30 cent price.

NT 1984,
Great post, as usual for you.
Once the initial plunge at the open was over, the price did not vary much for the rest of the day. As you say it could have dropped to 20c or who knows how much further, but it held.
13mill sales when there is 180+mill shares. Maybe the insto's hold large parcels and are locked in to certain timeframes.
Anyway, you have given me the courage to look at my screen again today.
Cheers

200mcf is a long, long, long way off 50BCF which i would have considered as the minimum this well would produce given the way it was talked up by GDN directors and their announcements. We still have a few intervals to explore but it is fair to say it is off to a very very bad start. I have alsways held faith in this company believing they were going to deliver but i certainly have my doubts about their integrity and honesty, literally making promises they knew full well they may not be able to keep. So, as Derrin Hinch would say, SHAME GDN DIRECTORS, SHAME!!!!!

Thanks dazt49,

I was just looking back at the volume that was traded around October last year when share price was 27-31 cents the biggest volume day when trading that range was 5 million with an average around 1-2 mill and that was after the oil and gas shows had been released.

the buying/selling yesterday and today is a lot of people getting out on bad news but the buyers were just there picking up everything that was being sold and a lot higher volume then back in October when there was a lot of potential behind the stock for gas shows further down. Now we have done tests on a few zones and have one that produced 0.2mmcf per day which isnt what many of us were hoping to see in yesterdays report. The sellers were getting out quickly and in the first hour where over 5 million shares was traded the price was between 33-35 cents a large amount of the 5 million was sold/bought at 34 cents. With the 13 million shares that were sold yesterday and the buyers were wanting even more shares then were being sold during most of that day, not sure why that happened considering the bad news and it reduces the chances of success compared to when they were drilling back in October and not as much volume was going through during the same price range.

The same thing seems to be happening today like yesterday on a smaller volume, the smart money has been constantly entering since 10:15am and only 10 minutes since 10:15 this morning has the red line crossed the blue line. The demand has been over 3 times more buyers then sellers at different times today with a fair amount of time being spent above 2 on the blue line which is twice as many buyers. This doesnt make sense for a stock that has released bad news and reduced chances of success since the demand is saying that a lot of people want shares at this price.

I realise this price is what it was back when they started drilling but back then there was a lot higher chance of success since they hadnt drilled very far into the well had several big targets to drill into, still had testing to do. Now they have found out leadville had water (doesnt mean 61 feet of gas in leadville cant be produced higher up dip like they have mentioned) that several other intervals were depleted and the most potential to produce from lower barker creek has only produced a smaller than expected flow rate.

The buyers seem to be buying as much as they can at current prices from the trades today, but what reason is there for such buying? Is it just people hoping for good news? Some that are aware of things that most aernt?

The last 2 days smart money and demand has been high which is not what you would expect after the news came out yesterday. Im hoping for good news soon like a lot of people just the buying doesnt make sense to the announcement.

A thought i did have was could it be the funds that have invested into the stock could they be the buyers? Since they would have been told more than the reports have told the market, Oceanic did say in a article i saw posted on a forum that they invested into gdn based on the upper intervals and if that is the case could they be the buyers picking up the stock most of the last 2 days at 28-29 cents? If they had good enough reason to believe the upper intervals were worth 61 cents then a 50% discount on more shares would be a good reason to be buying lots when investors and traders were selling out?

Just the last 2 days buying has to be from people with reasons to invest since most investors have been selling.

Just thought to share my views.

new_trader1984 said:

Thanks dazt49,

I was just looking back at the volume that was traded around October last year when share price was 27-31 cents the biggest volume day when trading that range was 5 million with an average around 1-2 mill and that was after the oil and gas shows had been released.

the buying/selling yesterday and today is a lot of people getting out on bad news but the buyers were just there picking up everything that was being sold and a lot higher volume then back in October when there was a lot of potential behind the stock for gas shows further down. Now we have done tests on a few zones and have one that produced 0.2mmcf per day which isnt what many of us were hoping to see in yesterdays report. The sellers were getting out quickly and in the first hour where over 5 million shares was traded the price was between 33-35 cents a large amount of the 5 million was sold/bought at 34 cents. With the 13 million shares that were sold yesterday and the buyers were wanting even more shares then were being sold during most of that day, not sure why that happened considering the bad news and it reduces the chances of success compared to when they were drilling back in October and not as much volume was going through during the same price range.

The same thing seems to be happening today like yesterday on a smaller volume, the smart money has been constantly entering since 10:15am and only 10 minutes since 10:15 this morning has the red line crossed the blue line. The demand has been over 3 times more buyers then sellers at different times today with a fair amount of time being spent above 2 on the blue line which is twice as many buyers. This doesnt make sense for a stock that has released bad news and reduced chances of success since the demand is saying that a lot of people want shares at this price.

I realise this price is what it was back when they started drilling but back then there was a lot higher chance of success since they hadnt drilled very far into the well had several big targets to drill into, still had testing to do. Now they have found out leadville had water (doesnt mean 61 feet of gas in leadville cant be produced higher up dip like they have mentioned) that several other intervals were depleted and the most potential to produce from lower barker creek has only produced a smaller than expected flow rate.

The buyers seem to be buying as much as they can at current prices from the trades today, but what reason is there for such buying? Is it just people hoping for good news? Some that are aware of things that most aernt?

The last 2 days smart money and demand has been high which is not what you would expect after the news came out yesterday. Im hoping for good news soon like a lot of people just the buying doesnt make sense to the announcement.

A thought i did have was could it be the funds that have invested into the stock could they be the buyers? Since they would have been told more than the reports have told the market, Oceanic did say in a article i saw posted on a forum that they invested into gdn based on the upper intervals and if that is the case could they be the buyers picking up the stock most of the last 2 days at 28-29 cents? If they had good enough reason to believe the upper intervals were worth 61 cents then a 50% discount on more shares would be a good reason to be buying lots when investors and traders were selling out?

Just the last 2 days buying has to be from people with reasons to invest since most investors have been selling.

Just thought to share my views.

Click to expand...

What is this smart money entering this morning that you talk about? If there are three times as many buyers why does the share price keep dropping? I'm really not sure about this stock, but even blind man freddy could see which way this share is trending at present. If they end up spudding this well, who is going to fund the second? In anyones realistic opinion, what is the chance of this well being commercial. According to everyone the leadville was meant to be paydirt, when that came up dry it was supposedly the next series of tests which would bring paydirt and now your all talking about the upper levels being the ones to watch out for. Sometimes you gotta know when to fold them and when to hold em.

Hi the barry,

The smart money, is just where the blue line is above the red line in the chart i posted in previous post. It just means that when the blue line is above 1 there is a demand for the shares, in yesterdays announcement being negative most of us would of assumed sellers would be taking any price they could get and selling? At the same time buyers were willing to pay that price and cheaper why pay more than you have to when the market will take any price they can get. The buyers wanted 2-3 times more shares in the top 5 price levels as the sellers were willing to sell. Now for the news that came out most would expect demand to not be there and no buyers around would of meant the ratio buyers to sellers should of been 0.5 if there was twice as many sellers as buyers or 0.10 if it was 10 times more sellers than buyers. Yesterday and today even though the price kept falling people were buying them in large amounts. When the blue line is above the red line that is called smart money, by the people that came up with it, all it means is the red line is number of buyers/sellers ratio in the top 5 price levels the blue line is the number of shares on the buy sell side in top 5 price levels. You divide the shares ratio by the number of buyers ratio which gives a number such as 0.5 1.5 or some other number, this number means the average buyer wants 1.5 or 2 or 3 times more shares per purchase to what the seller is willing to sell. Its the average in the top 5 so could have one buyer wanting a 100 000 shares and 4 wanting 25000 or they could all be equal. The idea is if you got buyers and the average is buying more then each seller wants to sell thats smart money since no one wants to put large amounts of money into a stock that is going to keep falling especially when so many other stocks are going up. It doesnt work straight away sometimes it might happen the day the demand increases other times might take a week or two before any real moves start to happen. Its just an indicator like on charts except this uses the market depth to give an idea of which side has more pressure the buy or sell side. Normally a price move will follow what the demand suggests.

i have looked at it back in October again in March when the big rises happened. Ive also looked at other stocks with it. Ive only recently got live data and have been giving this a go and learning how to use it.

It doesnt mean it will always work but can give you an idea of which direction the market is heading for the stock.

On the inside trader website under resources there is a few documents that can be downloaded which explains how its meant to work.

Hope this helps.

Thanks

new_trader1984 said:

Hi the barry,

The smart money, is just where the blue line is above the red line in the chart i posted in previous post. It just means that when the blue line is above 1 there is a demand for the shares, in yesterdays announcement being negative most of us would of assumed sellers would be taking any price they could get and selling? At the same time buyers were willing to pay that price and cheaper why pay more than you have to when the market will take any price they can get. The buyers wanted 2-3 times more shares in the top 5 price levels as the sellers were willing to sell. Now for the news that came out most would expect demand to not be there and no buyers around would of meant the ratio buyers to sellers should of been 0.5 if there was twice as many sellers as buyers or 0.10 if it was 10 times more sellers than buyers. Yesterday and today even though the price kept falling people were buying them in large amounts. When the blue line is above the red line that is called smart money, by the people that came up with it, all it means is the red line is number of buyers/sellers ratio in the top 5 price levels the blue line is the number of shares on the buy sell side in top 5 price levels. You divide the shares ratio by the number of buyers ratio which gives a number such as 0.5 1.5 or some other number, this number means the average buyer wants 1.5 or 2 or 3 times more shares per purchase to what the seller is willing to sell. Its the average in the top 5 so could have one buyer wanting a 100 000 shares and 4 wanting 25000 or they could all be equal. The idea is if you got buyers and the average is buying more then each seller wants to sell thats smart money since no one wants to put large amounts of money into a stock that is going to keep falling especially when so many other stocks are going up. It doesnt work straight away sometimes it might happen the day the demand increases other times might take a week or two before any real moves start to happen. Its just an indicator like on charts except this uses the market depth to give an idea of which side has more pressure the buy or sell side. Normally a price move will follow what the demand suggests.

i have looked at it back in October again in March when the big rises happened. Ive also looked at other stocks with it. Ive only recently got live data and have been giving this a go and learning how to use it.

It doesnt mean it will always work but can give you an idea of which direction the market is heading for the stock.

On the inside trader website under resources there is a few documents that can be downloaded which explains how its meant to work.

Hope this helps.

Thanks

Click to expand...

Hey mate,

I would only use this technique in conjunction with something as an indicator. If you look back at october and march the potential for this stock was completely different to now. They were drilling the mine and their was potential to hit a truckload of gas, at present what potential is there? The potential that the well will be plugged? I think a few people here are looking through rose coloured glasses. The stock finished down another 18 percent today. I would think that by the end of the week there is a good chance looking at the chart that we will see this in the 15-20 cent range. This stock at present is very bearish, maybe they will make an announcement to turn it round, I wouldn't hold my breath though. There are better bets around then punting on gdn.

Good luck with the trading

Hi the barry,

That was a question i asked in the earlier post, why the large volume for a seller to sell his shares there has to be a buyer so why was 13 million and 12 million shares traded in last 2 days? If there were no buyers it could be 20 cents 15 cents 10 cents with people willing to sell at any price.

In my other posts i did say a lot of the potential had been taken out since last October before the first price rise but there must be something that has got so many people buying and 100 000 shares at 28 cents is still $28000. Would you put $28000 into a stock that was still falling? For 100,000 shares to be a trade it needs to be sold and bought by one buyer and seller so while some people say its expensive and got not much chance of a price rise soon others must think its currently a cheap price and willing to buy?

The charts aernt looking very good at the moment, but still the question why are people buying the shares for if its only to go down if they wanted in wouldnt they wait till it went down to 10-15 cents?

Thats why the demand chart doesnt make sense to the news you would assume the buyers wouldnt be interested in the stock and sellers being a lot more than buyers, but watching the market the last 2 days you can see the buyers were buying a lot of shares on the bad news, just dont know why they would be buying.

Any thoughts on why buyers want the shares at 25-30 cents when next week could get them at 20 cents or less if no news?

thanks.

NT,
My head hurts thinking about GDN cos I SHOUDA got out at $1.10,$1.09,$1.08 etc etc.
You are right, why are those bigish parcels being bought when the price is sliding. The smart money must know something??
But..yesterdays smart money people must be kicking themselve for not waiting for today with SP sliding further.
I reckon the smart money is on horse 3 in race three at 3.33 lol
I dont know if the next ann will really affect the SP, they have to squeeze a lot more gas out of the remaining zones for punters to feel comfortable enough to pump the SP along.
Still..I am optimistic that the gas/oil fairy is watching over us and will sprinkle about 440BCF on our tortured heads.

Plenty of times you see good money being poored into a sliding stock..

You do have to wonder about the logic in it, but it happens to many stocks, it may not be anomaly.

there was "smart money" buying at $1.20, $1.10.....80c....40c.....30c

point being someone will always see value at some point, doesn't mean they are right. This is a classic case of trying to catch a falling knife. I don't hold, unloaded last of my shares at 60c but I have a keen interest in the stock. It's been a very interesting ride.

The company needs a comprehensive, unambiguous good news announcement to turn this around. But it's a case of the boy who cried wolf at the moment, they talked it up too much late last year, now scepticism is rife even amongst true believers.

I hope shareholders make money despite all this, but the directors have a lot to answer for in my view. It was always high risk but they weren't responsible in how they reported to the market and it burned a lot of people.

broady,
Yes some honest truth from the directors would go a long way in placating us holders.
More than that some 'detailed anns' rather than reports that might have been texted in and plonked on the company letterhead. (long text I admit)
Surely the directors must be aware of shareholder rumblings and must know we want to know..eg what are the estimates of the reserves, now that Para 1 has not performed as hoped. Failry simple question I would have thought.

doesnt the fact that a share price is falling indicate that demand for that particular stock is also dampening? so in this case, less people want this stock.
and can someone tell me is there or is there not any gas in this well...??

Well i must say the GDN share has been a rollercoaster of a ride. i bought in the 70-80 cent region and have held on and have suffered the consequences. It is very true that past ann have been vague to say the least, which has certainly dampened my confidence in the company. Hope still rests on para 2 and the fact that the director himself bought 200000 shares not too long ago (8th of May to be precise) at 75cents a pop. Surely he would not crucify himself for the sake of a short term increase in prices??

I guess the question looming on all holders is the affect of para 1 and its flowtest results. The market has clearly indicated that this was crucial with a drop of approx 40% in a couple of days. Does that mean that para 1 was the core of all results??? what can we expect if a good flow test results from para 2? what can we expect if another bad flow test result is posted??
opinions please..

austocks,
Good report SP up.
Bad report SP kaput.
Reckon if Para 2 doesnt hit paydirt GDN will be 10c.
But I reckon it WILL hit paydirt and be $2
IMHO

IMO Para #1 is still a possibility
Why else would they spend more money on it if it is a dry well???
There,I said the dirty word "dry".
Also, none of the directors have sold any shares
I'm tempted to top up.