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GDN - Golden State Resources

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Bit of a novice with these gas stats. Would appreciate it if you can hurry up and let us know if your maths is correct!
 
LetItRide said:
Bit of a novice with these gas stats. Would appreciate it if you can hurry up and let us know if your maths is correct!
Click to expand...

maths is good... a couple of coarse assumptions used... but magnitude wise it's ok (DYOR)... what we don't know is what the flow rate is and whether it's sustainable.... but with that kind of background pressure i'm happy to take the punt (DYOR) on the frac job having worked (they say it's successfully completed in the report).... reckon they need 48 hours of extended flow testing to prove to the gas gathering co. that it's worth granting a permit to tie in to the main gas transport system.... even if this one isn't a producer it looks like there's good reserves.... alternative would be to drill a horizontal well if vertical one can't produce fast enough....(IMO)....
 
.... try this maths....


if you take the depth that corresponds to 600 bar say 5500m and run a line across the infanous golden diagram that shows all the different formations, you get roughly to the spill point of the Barker Creek formation.... that is where the top of the formation goes upwards to the right rather than downwards as it does from the point where they drilled the well.... if you assume a circular field with a diameter given by the distance from the fault to this point i.e. approx 15km the field area is approx. 175km².... if you take 10m reservoir thickness and 600 bar (8700psi) with 5% porosity across that and convert it to reserves you get well over 1Tcf......... ??????? anyone know what I'm doing wrong?????!!!!
 
Chance,
Nice work, your brain must be addled now!!
I dont pretend to understand any of it but I like 1 TCF bit!!
The market just sighed again, reckon some day traders hoping to profit on a good ann ,jumped off .
 
Chance,
You changed from 5TCF what happened?
The next ann will occur around the same time as the U ann.
Hopefully champaigne THIS weekend.
 
...reckon the sp should really be back over the dollar mark for that kind of potential... starting to wonder whether Richard's 200000 on market buy at 75c a few weeks back really is a good sign.... 46 hours 18 minutes 27 seconds to go....
 
Maybe, because the Sp is so cheap ATM, that punters can afford to hang out for the 'real ann' and then jump on.
Even if it spikes up they can still get on and make big dollars.
Sounds good to me anyway.
 
yeah i had 5Tcf... realised i put the wrong pressure in my spreadsheet... changed it... comes out to 2.5Tcf.... that's a potential sp of 10's of $'s rather than $1.50...... but would still be happy with 50Bcf anyhow!!!
 
My god, what does it all mean? To all those people who dont understand psi except pumping air into a flat tyre this is just confusing.

Can someone please explain what we should be waiting for?
 
a few things:

  • the word 'commercial'
  • daily flow rate
  • certified reserves report
  • field development plan
  • directors decision to proceed with next well
  • permits for export pipeline
  • permit for next well
 
With GDN you might add
* When the cows come home lol
The ann today said.....
The well is currently undergoing a 48 hour extended flow test. Flows rates and their commercial significance will be determined once gas flow rates from the interval have stabilized.
Emphasis "currently" meaning it has already commenced.
Given that the time of the ann was 12pm our time ..8pm Utah time, the tests may have begun in daylight hours..say 3pm ( a guess) +48 hours would be
7am Thurs our time..so hopefully an ann before open on Thurs.
Yeah I know I am dreaming.
 
oh yeah....

  • when the cows come home

judging by the ever more emphatic down ramping on HC by those that seem to have a tech background it would seem to have a higher chance of coming good!!!
 
Been keeping an eye on the boys over there at HC.
SOME of them seem to know what they are talking about, really cant understand why they dont continue with all the prattle.
 
this from sandilion on HC


There is some speculation that 8700psi is normal static pressure at this well depth...I don't reckon anyone in their right mind is going to report uncorrected formation pressure (i.e use a gauge corrected value to offset background hydrostatic pressure). The fact is that this level of formation pressure and (historical) porosity and the fact there is gas lift sufficient to out lift the frac fluids and remaining drill fluids ( presumably trapped in a reasonably porous formation) points to a reasonable reservoir pocket/entry.

I think the GDN threshold for commercial production was 50BCF from memory (I stand to be corrected, my memory is equally porous)...assuming the formation pressure to be stable and (say) a 15-20% pressure die-back after the in-rush equalisation...you are probably looking at plus 100bcf and onwards (DYOR)...it really does depend on how the volumetric flow rate pans out and whether sustainable flow is likely (duh..!).

I hold, and am positive...and yes, I have actually been on a rig, been at thousands of wells and spent many years in places as diverse as Colorado, Saudi, UAE, Oman, Scotland (go the North Sea!!) and of course Aussie (yay!)...so I hope we all go well, and the bottom line is no-one knows but the rig pigs..lol Best of Luck
 
Wow...I am famous on two websites.

I really posted on HC just cos there is so much rampant negative speculation over there...totally biased uninformed rubbish really...the folks here don't seem to suffer that same affliction thank the Lord/Allah/buddah/Angelina Jolie...

good luck GDN'ers...
 
good point on the equalisation/die-back.... that would put stable formation pressure at around 500bar and reserves still above 1Tcf....
 
sandilion,
hope you dont mind me stealing your HC post.
We are all trying to harvest as much info as we can.
You will find its a bit quieter on ASF!!
 
Seems like I have treading water for a long time.
SP hanging in there, low volumes so far.
Bring on 2 morrow!! (tho I seem to remember having said that quite a few times over the last 18 months
My other shares (BMN,NMI,PXR) have all been going sideways for months too.
Need that adrenalin rush we all get when they take off.
 
24 hours 12 mintues and 47 secs to go.... that 7" liner they put in... they'd have to complete the well with a narrower production tubing... starts making the well bore quite small 4-5"... am wondering whether that would actually impede the potential flow rate from this well... maybe not at 10mmscfd....
 
..But who's counting?
Maybe sandlion could comment on the casing ,flow rate etc.
Some of the posts I have read lately on this and the 'other' site have given me great heart....maybe GDN had it right all along.
As i have posted a while ago, my broker said .."the fundamentals haven't changed"
 
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