GCL - Gloucester Coal

[noirua]

Hi so you mean you are back in GCL?
thx MS

Hi m_s, Yes! I have a certain way of putting it, a form of poetic code that makes you wonder if I did or not.

 

[Muschu]

It appears that GCL has recieved some good publicity lately - mentioned in Samrt Investor, and was there a positive report from UBS? Hadn't come across this stock until yesterday. Look promising?

 

[michael_selway]

Hi m_s, Yes! I have a certain way of putting it, a form of poetic code that makes you wonder if I did or not.

Hm good thing you did, it has gone crazy today alone!

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2007 2008 2009 2010
EPS 22.8 28.3 153.7 153.6
DPS 14.0 15.0 68.0 75.0

thx

MS

 

[michael_selway]

It appears that GCL has recieved some good publicity lately - mentioned in Samrt Investor, and was there a positive report from UBS? Hadn't come across this stock until yesterday. Look promising?

Yep looks very positive

Gloucester Coal Shares Surge on UBS Recommendation (Update1)

By Jesse Riseborough

May 22 (Bloomberg) -- Gloucester Coal Ltd. rose to its highest in more than 11 years in Sydney trading after UBS AG said it's the ``best value'' coal stock in Australia as takeovers increase.

Gloucester has the most ``upside potential'' based on valuations used in ArcelorMittal's A$631 million ($608 million) purchase this week of a 14.9 percent stake in rival producer Macarthur Coal Ltd., UBS analysts led by Sydney-based Glyn Lawcock said in a report. The bank said Felix Resources Ltd. is its other ``key pick'' in the sector.

Acquisitions of coal and iron-ore assets in Australia, the world's largest exporter of the steelmaking materials, will rise as makers of the alloy try to reduce costs, UBS said. Lakshmi Mittal's ArcelorMittal, the world's biggest steelmaker, is in talks with Macarthur that may lead to a A$4.2 billion takeover.

``We expect there to be further consolidation within the sector as steel producers globally recognize the increasing importance of securing supplies of iron ore, coal and manganese,'' Lawcock said in the report dated yesterday.

Gloucester rose A$1.20, or 11 percent, to A$12.00 at the 4:10 p.m. Sydney time close on the Australian stock exchange, the highest since November 1996. Felix rose 2.8 percent to A$18.70.

Output Breakdown

Gloucester's output is comprised of about 60 percent thermal coal, used in power stations, and 40 percent coking coal, used to make steel, UBS said. Steel producers may be more interested in buying coking-coal producers to secure supply, the report said.

Noble Group Ltd. owns a 19.7 percent stake in Gloucester and could block any takeover, UBS also said.

Potential acquirers of Australian iron-ore companies will seek those with access to infrastructure such as port and rail, UBS said. Favored stocks include Fortescue Metals Group Ltd., Mt. Gibson Iron Ltd., Murchison Metals Ltd., Atlas Iron Ltd., BC Iron Ltd. and Brockman Resources Ltd., the report said.

To contact the reporter on this story: Jesse Riseborough in Melbourne at jriseborough@bloomberg.net

 

[noirua]

Still looking good are Gloucester coal and that's despite the tumble in the last week.
Like Felix Resources, there are major holders who can sit and make it very tough for any mining major to bid high enough - so, there's not that much chance of it happening at these heady prices that rely on the coal boom continuing.
I'm staying with them at present as they appear worth the gamble on coal prices staying high for the next 15 years, that's my opinion though, you may think otherwise.

 

[noirua]

Noble group have raised their stake in Gloucester Coal by 2% to approximately 21.7%. GCL remain weaker with the sector in the recent sell-off.

 

[noirua]

After recent declines and taking into account that Gloucester Coal is Merril Lynch's most favoured coal stock, in Australia. I've decided that increasing my holding was a reasonable bet. The semi-hard coking coal available at Gloucester is excellent for a relativaly small miner.

 

[michael_selway]

After recent declines and taking into account that Gloucester Coal is Merril Lynch's most favoured coal stock, in Australia. I've decided that increasing my holding was a reasonable bet. The semi-hard coking coal available at Gloucester is excellent for a relativaly small miner.

Nice, did you pick up any other coalies last week?

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2007 2008 2009 2010
EPS 22.8 31.7 156.2 279.4
DPS 14.0 16.4 77.0 75.2

thx

MS

 

[noirua]

Nice, did you pick up any other coalies last week?
thx MS

This is the only coal stock I picked up last week, or added - some stocks look a bit uncertain. I'm staying with my usual five and praying for deliverance to the promised land of King Coal.

 

[noirua]

Added a few more shares on the back of the promising situation at Felix resources. The fall back in the share price may well have been overdone.

 

[noirua]

Added a few more shares on the back of the promising situation at Felix resources. The fall back in the share price may well have been overdone.

The price still continues to fall but I remain very confident in GCL. Added even more stock as the semi-hard coking coal agreement at US$300 per tonne should see profits rocket for 2009.
The bid situation has gone quiet and talk of a Gloucester Coal and Felix Resources tie up is all but dead in the water, and Xstrata who left the bid scene with their nose chewed off, are unlikely to show further interest.

 

[noirua]

Looking good are Gloucester Coal in this Australian Coal Summit report: http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20080903/pdf/31c38rryxqprrf.pdf
http://www.gloucestercoal.com.au

 

[michael_selway]

Looking good are Gloucester Coal in this Australian Coal Summit report: http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20080903/pdf/31c38rryxqprrf.pdf
http://www.gloucestercoal.com.au

Hi Noirua, thanks

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2008 2009 2010 2011
EPS 28.7 166.3 256.0 273.6
DPS 21.0 76.1 110.9 128.1

Date: 28/8/2008
Author: Sarah-Jane Tasker
Source: The Australian --- Page: 22
Australian-listed mining group Gloucester Coal has recorded a 2007-08 net profitof $A23.4m that was up 30%. The main factor was the price rise of more than 270%the company had gained from Japanese coking coal buyers. Experts however notethat the long-term forecast for output from Gloucester's mine assets isuncertain, while infrastructure bottlenecks at the Newcastle coal shipping portare also retarding export growth. CEO Rob Lord says production is to be boostedby 800,000 tonnes to four million annually

Gloucester tips a five-fold rise with coke a hit

Back
Date: 28/8/2008
Author: Jamie Freed
Source: The Sydney Morning Herald --- Page: 30
Australian-listed Gloucester Coal has posted a 2007-08 profit of $A23.4m, whichis 30 per cent higher than previously. The coal miner benefited from a six percent increase in sales of semi-hard coking coal, although its overall coaloutput fell by 12 per cent. Meanwhile, the cost of its project to expandproduction at its New South Wales mine has increased by 10 per cent, to $A33m.CEO Rob Lord says the expansion should be completed on schedule in late 2009.Shareholders will receive a final dividend of $A0.16 per share, fully franked

Date: 28/8/2008
Author: Michael Vaughan
Source: The Australian Financial Review --- Page: 21
The shareholders of Gloucester Coal have benefited from its good results. It hasincreased net profit after tax by 30 per cent to $A23.4 million for 2007-08, dueto increased production and higher coal prices. Earnings per share are $A0.288and it will return a total of $A0.21 to shareholders

thx

MS

 

[noirua]

Hi m_s, The chart does tell a story as to the amount of aggregate being mixed into the ROM coal mined. Xstrata have now closed their open-cut mine at Ulan and now have a longwall operation only. So the chart forward to 2009 will reduce the operation at Ulan by about 40%, unless they solve their dispute with Felix Resources.

GCL are looking good for 2009 and profits forward into 2010 should bounce to around EBITDA $250 million on 4mtpa. 2009 has a mixed development cost factor but should still reach $130 million.
GCL are good payers of dividends which should reach 50 cents in 2009 and $1 in 2010.

 

[michael_selway]

Hi m_s, The chart does tell a story as to the amount of aggregate being mixed into the ROM coal mined. Xstrata have now closed their open-cut mine at Ulan and now have a longwall operation only. So the chart forward to 2009 will reduce the operation at Ulan by about 40%, unless they solve their dispute with Felix Resources.

GCL are looking good for 2009 and profits forward into 2010 should bounce to around EBITDA $250 million on 4mtpa. 2009 has a mixed development cost factor but should still reach $130 million.
GCL are good payers of dividends which should reach 50 cents in 2009 and $1 in 2010.

Yep still looks good

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2008 2009 2010 2011
EPS 28.7 180.1 250.7 284.3
DPS 21.0 76.0 140.5 123.0

thx

MS

 

[noirua]

Decided that I just had to buy a small amount of extra stock as soon as they went under $5.00. May be a gamble, but could not forgive myself if I failed to buy at this price.
Prospects are downgraded now in the light of financial events in America and Europe, but not this much, surely.

 

[countryboy]

closed at $4.49 today forecast earnings of 76 and $1 plus for 2010 make this compelling research.
resisted several urges to dip my toe in the water and glad i have done so.Im only looking at stocks now that forecast returns above 20% !!!

 

[noirua]

closed at $4.49 today forecast earnings of 76 and $1 plus for 2010 make this compelling research.
resisted several urges to dip my toe in the water and glad i have done so.Im only looking at stocks now that forecast returns above 20% !!!

OK, yes, I bought more too soon, and resisted buying more yesterday. Will probably buy some more this morning or maybe not. The markets can be very confusing and it's is certainly difficult to buy more when the knife is falling.

No doubt buyers are going to ask for delays in coking coal deliveries, early price cuts, or even new contracts. That's what is happening with iron ore shipments.
These are binding agreements but bankrupt companies won't be paying for anything.

Aussie Dollar weakness leaves lots of leeway to drop prices

 

[countryboy]

gee whiz $3.90 Im going yo have to buy a small amount and see if it drops lower.This market is presenting some wonderful opportunities for those who can hold their nerve. There is no logic for this other than people want their money out of shares.

 

[michael_selway]

gee whiz $3.90 Im going yo have to buy a small amount and see if it drops lower.This market is presenting some wonderful opportunities for those who can hold their nerve. There is no logic for this other than people want their money out of shares.

Hi yep its gone crazy all right

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2008 2009 2010 2011
EPS 28.7 180.1 250.7 288.6
DPS 21.0 76.0 146.1 123.0

thx

MS