Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

GCL - Gloucester Coal

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michael_selway said:
Oh ok, i think $6 is a fair bid, what do you think?

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2007 2008 2009 2010
EPS 22.8 20.6 49.7 65.2
DPS 14.0 12.0 25.0 35.0

thx

MS
Click to expand...

Hi M_S et al, $6 now looks cheap, and I would not be surprised if this one strode on to $7 next week - only my guess by the way and on the back of spiralling coal prices on Friday. I bought a small amount of stock early on Friday, far too late really. Possibly the best pure coal stock left this side of the Great Divide, IMHO.
 
noirua said:
Hi M_S et al, $6 now looks cheap, and I would not be surprised if this one strode on to $7 next week - only my guess by the way and on the back of spiralling coal prices on Friday. I bought a small amount of stock early on Friday, far too late really. Possibly the best pure coal stock left this side of the Great Divide, IMHO.
Click to expand...

yes one of the cheapest coal stocks out there with ok yield!

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2007 2008 2009 2010
EPS 22.8 22.0 64.4 99.3
DPS 14.0 11.3 30.8 44.5

thx

MS
 
michael_selway said:
yes one of the cheapest coal stocks out there with ok yield!

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2007 2008 2009 2010
EPS 22.8 22.0 64.4 99.3
DPS 14.0 11.3 30.8 44.5
thx MS
Click to expand...


Taking a while to achieve the $7.00 mark but should get there, hopefully. Noble Group remains the big factor here and further interest is needed. SIA Funds hold 5.65% now.

Quarterly Report: http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20080129/pdf/3174cgg5nvgz91.pdf
Look ontrack for 1.8 million tonnes of sales despite shipping problems out of Newcastle.
 
noirua said:
Taking a while to achieve the $7.00 mark but should get there, hopefully. Noble Group remains the big factor here and further interest is needed. SIA Funds hold 5.65% now.

Quarterly Report: http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20080129/pdf/3174cgg5nvgz91.pdf
Look ontrack for 1.8 million tonnes of sales despite shipping problems out of Newcastle.
Click to expand...
Now through $7.00 and closed at $7.32, up 11 cents. Coal sales set for 2.8mtpa in 2009/10. Coking coal sales well up in last quarter and company playing catchup in second half on thermal coal sales out of Newcastle.
 
noirua said:
Glocester Coal and Felix Resources are tipped in this video broadcast by CNBC on 7th Feb 2008: http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=641607231&play=1
Click to expand...

Thanks Noirua, and it said FLX has a little more risk because of debt, maybe thatrs why FLX fell a bit today!

thx

MS

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2007 2008 2009 2010
EPS 22.8 20.7 111.4 120.7
DPS 14.0 10.0 26.0 54.0
 
michael_selway said:
Thanks Noirua, and it said FLX has a little more risk because of debt, maybe thats why FLX fell a bit today!
thx MBEarnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2007 2008 2009 2010
EPS 22.8 20.7 111.4 120.7
DPS 14.0 10.0 26.0 54.0
Click to expand...
Hi m_s, Felix have had heavier development costs on Minerva and Ashton U/G, and Moolarben to come. Aiming for up to 13 mtpa against GCL's 2.8 mtpa.

Gloucester Coal bounced over the $8.00 barrier today and stand at $8.13 +57 cents after $8.39. Good production of hard coking coal, with prices spiralling, seems to have done the trick here today.
 
With spot market coking coal at around US$200 per tonne against GCL's coking coal price in 2007 set at US$73 per tonne, profits are set to rocket from April 2008.
Cost for producing coking coal are quite high, A$54 per tonne, and demurrage out of Newcastle was A$3.20 per tonne in the first half. Coking coal sales were at 363kt in the first half, up 21%.
Thermal coal prices have been set at US$100 per tonne from April 2008 and coking coal prices are also expected to be set much higher.
 
noirua said:
Possibly the best pure coal stock left this side of the Great Divide, IMHO.
Click to expand...

I agree.

Only lately have started analysing the coal stocks (may have missed the run.....?). At least in the short-term.

But I agree with this statement, best coal stock I could find on the ASX!

Any thoughts where this one may be moving in the short and long term?

Short-term, Im not a fan, doesnt look the best technically. Fundamentally looks like a solid company from my quick analysis and could be a real gem longer term.
 
MRC & Co said:
I agree.

Only lately have started analysing the coal stocks (may have missed the run.....?). At least in the short-term.

But I agree with this statement, best coal stock I could find on the ASX!

Any thoughts where this one may be moving in the short and long term?

Short-term, Im not a fan, doesnt look the best technically. Fundamentally looks like a solid company from my quick analysis and could be a real gem longer term.
Click to expand...

Hm may have missed the run?

Hm GCL went up when most things went down big today!

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2007 2008 2009 2010
EPS 22.8 24.3 104.0 128.9
DPS 14.0 12.0 36.5 52.0

thx

MS
 
michael_selway said:
Hm may have missed the run?

Hm GCL went up when most things went down big today!

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2007 2008 2009 2010
EPS 22.8 24.3 104.0 128.9
DPS 14.0 12.0 36.5 52.0

thx

MS
Click to expand...

Yeh, dont matter, I got in :D

Think there is still legs left to run in this one yet! At least I hope so!
 
OUCH!

WTF happened to this one today?

Triggered my stop already, though I wouldnt be surprised to see this one rally into the close and perhaps have a bit of a bounce tomorow after such a huge fall!
 
Nick Radge said:
All coal stocks just got clobbered. Was long MCC myself and my stop got hit too. CEY also well down.
Click to expand...

Yeh, they sure did!

Was looking to get on MCC also, lucky I didnt!

You think this is just a whipsaw or capitulation of the current bulls to possible smart money? Hard to tell ATM.

BTW, great website over at thechartist! I just started looking over it, definately enlightening me a about a few things I never knew about TA.

Cheers and good luck Nick!
 
Nick Radge said:
All coal stocks just got clobbered. Was long MCC myself and my stop got hit too. CEY also well down.
Click to expand...

Hi Nick MCC clobbered? yeah but it went to an all time high on Friday close to $13?

You have to look into coal stocks in perspective :)

thx

MS

GCL - Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2007 2008 2009 2010
EPS 22.8 27.8 110.6 138.0
DPS 14.0 13.0 42.0 63.5
 
$8.00 a share looks a reasonable price to evacuate from GCL. Future production will reach 2.5mtpa but this is a bit on the lowside when compared with FLX's 13 to 15mtpa. Sure they have some coking coal but Felix has a lot of PCI and semi-soft coking and their new mine is much lower cost.
Gloucester will still do very well but time to go I'm afraid. Hope it goes on up for you - good luck.
 
noirua said:
A change of track here as I dive back into Gloucester Coal on the back of the semi-hard coking coal find.
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20080501/pdf/318x1pbv6gr9gp.pdf
Click to expand...

Hi so you mean you are back in GCL?

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2007 2008 2009 2010
EPS 22.8 35.6 154.5 159.9
DPS 14.0 16.5 70.0 73.0

Date: 29/4/2008
Author: Jamie Freed
Source: The Sydney Morning Herald --- Page: 23
New South Wales miner Gloucester Coal is considering partnerships in order tohelp it secure a higher price for its thermal coal. Gloucester MD, Rob Lord,said it will investigate whether there are partnership opportunities to blendits lower-quality thermal coal to extract a higher value from the resource. Thecompany is believed to have had preliminary talks with potential blendingpartners including Noble Group and American Metals & Coal International, itstwo largest shareholders. Ongoing infrastructure restraints meantGloucester's production in the March 2008 quarter declined 19% to 439,000tonnes compared with the previous corresponding period
Click to expand...

thx

MS
 

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