GBPUSD thoughts

[MARKETWINNER]

https://www.poundsterlingforecast.c...-economic-data-on-the-pound-vs-the-us-dollar/
US dollar Forecast and the impact of next week’s economic data on the pound vs the US dollar

 

[cogs]

Now that Brexit has (maybe, just maybe) been postponed for a few months there could be some opportunities in pound pairs, he says cautiously.

 

[willoneau]

Hi cogs , after looking at my intra-day trading over that period and weighing up the amount of time I spent at the screen, at all hours with very little gain .Actually I was going backwards very slowly I decided to stop trading intra-day. I am currently forward testing a daily FX system on sim and hoping to go live in new tax year.

 

[cogs]

Hi will,
I can understand, trading fx pairs tend to sucker traders in to over indulging in screen time.
Can you share any of how you are testing on sim?

 

[willoneau]

go look at no nonsense fx a lot of work if prepared to do it.
i use pepperstone which have sim accounts you can use untill ready to trade live to try out any system or methodology you have.

 

[cogs]

Oh, you mean demo accounts?

Yes I have listened to some of his videos and he states some valid points, and shares some useful information. As he also mentions his method requires a minimum starting balance of $100k which threw me off. He can't be too confident in his own methods to have such a large buffer zone, albeit that was to trade full time.

I must say any clown can be successful with a starting balance of that size.
To challenge my experience and understanding I have gathered over the years I have started another live account with a balance of $20, yes 20. To prove to myself the validity of my methods and knowledge.
All that changes from small balance to larger balance is 'time spent in each trade'. Price movements are the same throughout time frames, just the monetary value changes.

Anyways he has some good guidance for those discovering at that level.

 

[willoneau]

Oh, you mean demo accounts?

Yes I have listened to some of his videos and he states some valid points, and shares some useful information. As he also mentions his method requires a minimum starting balance of $100k which threw me off. He can't be too confident in his own methods to have such a large buffer zone, albeit that was to trade full time.

I must say any clown can be successful with a starting balance of that size.
To challenge my experience and understanding I have gathered over the years I have started another live account with a balance of $20, yes 20. To prove to myself the validity of my methods and knowledge.
All that changes from small balance to larger balance is 'time spent in each trade'. Price movements are the same throughout time frames, just the monetary value changes.

Anyways he has some good guidance for those discovering at that level.

Are you sure you read it right ? I think he was talking that sort of capital to actually make a living and was low anyway. A 30% return on $100,000 is only $30,000 can you live off that?

 

[willoneau]

I have been demoing since 11/3/19 as of today i'm up almost 38% but still not ready to actually trade it live.

 

[cogs]

I started watching his videos from the beginning, then he got to, yes 'how much to trade for a living' otherwise don't bother, sort of wording. So all his methodology is applied to that start balance which is only a small portion of actual retail traders. I work and trade.
Don't get me wrong in my comments, he has many valid points and I would suggest any FX trader to watch his work and pick up some pointers.
In the scheme of successful methods and traders, he is apparently just another, although I hadn't seen him trade all his positions live, and show track record.
The thing about FX is there are several successful methods that work and a gazillion that don't, his is apparently one that does and many willing to share have some degree of success, hence they share.

Anyway sounds like you are heading down the right path for you, 38% in a couple of months is very good! Well done.
Basically in my experience, if you can beat inflation you are doing it right.
IMO, I would suggest not trading demo for too long, live is different, as you may well already know. Microlots and limited exposure to make sure your emotions are involved. It sure tests us out.

 

[willoneau]

I work and trade also, but to lose interest after being given the facts about needing so much to actually make a living trading Fx only (no other income ) is a shame because there is so much more. But a lot of work for anyone who really wants to be profitable trading FX.

 

[Triple B]

I think VP NNFX suggests $300,000 to be a professional. ie your main income. At 20% profit per year average that is $60000 pa. That does not mean you need that much to trade. My plan is to deposit $10000 per year for the next 10years . And have a balance of $300,000 to trade with then . i will be 55 years old then and should have the house paid off. So far indicators showing promise are : SSL,, Flat trend with MACD,, Awsome Oscillator.
If you think you can take $10000 and live off that at $60000 pa you may be dissapointed.

 

[willoneau]

Hi Triple B i'm glad you found NNFX as i did, that is why i stopped my trading thread to concentrate on learning a better way to trade FX.

 

[cogs]

It is nice nice goal you have Triple B. How long have you been educating yourself in FX?

There is so much fact and fiction out there. I think it is one of the most enticing but misleading businesses around. Some of the most pertinent points VP NNFX mentions I think are using Daily charts and not following the heard, https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment etc. although these are even delayed and not always accurate at any given point in time, this is where the 'fat account' with a 'buffer' comes in.

Etienne has had some interesting interviews: with Chris from Pepper and this one
with Scott Phillips who has had an interesting life and is now in a great place.

Willoneau - have you had any positions on GBPUSD this week?

 

[willoneau]

Hi cocs, my system doesn't trade any USD currencies.

 

[Triple B]

Hi Triple B i'm glad you found NNFX as i did,

Hi Will. I think I suggested nnfx in the chaos thread?
cogs . i "traded"(sic) xau/usd for 1 year and lost a few thousand $. March - march
I wanted to try for 1 year and see how I went .
Now developing a strategy for fx only with help from nnfx. lots of work but the goal is 20mins trading time in the AM . 20% average return pa.
Been at the fx solid since about beginning April 19
I still want to trade XAU .
Would like to do this at night for a "pocket money account" try to generate extra play $ with a say $ 5000 account . Intra day and trend

 

[willoneau]

Hi Triple B, i didn't read it but doesn't matter. I found NNFX about the time i stopped posting when we were intra-day trading to also focus on learning his way.
I have all the currencies except any with US dollar.

 

[willoneau]

Are you trading the NNFX way? live or in demo Triple B
Live demo account running, starting capital $10,000.
First trade 11/3/19 and balance of today including open positions $14,367 at this moment in time( yesterday was just over $15,000).

 

[Triple B]

Are you trading the NNFX way? live or in demo Triple B
Live demo account running, starting capital $10,000.
First trade 11/3/19 and balance of today including open positions $14,367 at this moment in time( yesterday was just over $15,000).

Looks promising Will
Im still backtesting. Making progress and getting more consistent results . I was getting some wild fluctuations on different pairs with previous indies.
Still got plenty of work to go but I reckon Demo is still about a month away.
Im testing 2014-2018 on all pairs with the final algo. Thats about a weeks work in itself. After my real job!

 

[willoneau]

Sounds like your putting in more work than i did back testing
Why do you need to back test all 27?

 

[cogs]

Bit of a nasty squeeze in GBPUSD. Text book algo though, so when they switch it will stand out like a sore toe.


Using Davits pivots from FF.


As long as these long positions keep building they will keep pushing it down, maybe to a climactic stop run and pop!