GBPUSD thoughts

[willoneau]

Stand aside on GBP until short bias confirmed.

 

[Triple B]

Got the night off Will?

 

[willoneau]

Finished this morning

 

[willoneau]

Entry short x2 GBP 2863,

 

[Triple B]

Are you logging youre trades Will or just trying this and that for now

 

[willoneau]

logging my trades triple

 

[willoneau]

was chatting to andy wondering were to log XAU and US500 ?

 

[willoneau]

Are you logging youre trades Will or just trying this and that for now

Logging them this week as the week (while off ) will be my sample size x3 as I'll also be trading XAU and US500

 

[willoneau]

Waiting for lower high confirmation to lower stop.

 

[willoneau]

What to do? plan was to lower stop on remaining position when target reached , touched but not closed so do i still move my stop to BE or wait?

 

[willoneau]

What to do? plan was to lower stop on remaining position when target reached , touched but not closed so do i still move my stop to BE or wait?

decided to move stop to BE as I can re-enter up around same prices if entry indicated.

 

[willoneau]

Exit BE.

 

[willoneau]

Longer time frame going sideways but if lower high forms possible short entry.

 

[willoneau]

I will stop using pips as profit or loss because XAU pips is in 100's which doesn't correlate with GBP and US500 xR is better (R=risk= entry minus stop).

 

[willoneau]

Once I'm in profit I move my stop to BE, I use price structure usually to determine if showing signs of weakness or strength to move my stop. I can always look to re-enter around my original entry if setup still there or even get in at a better price.

 

[willoneau]

Review last night stats,
20 trades , 9 wins 11 losses = 45%
avg win= 11.32
avg loss= 8.33
pay off ratio= 1.36
expectancy= 0.06
profit factor= 1.11
% return on a/c= 4.11

 

[willoneau]

I need to look at the amount of trades and either improve my win rate or pay off ratio. Although when i think about it 20 trades over three instruments is not that many.

 

[Triple B]

I would say win% this should reduce drawdown. ie at 45%win rate the chance of 10losers in a row out of 50 trades is 4.7% at 55%win chance of 10 losers in a row from 50 trades is 0.8%
At 50% win chance of 10 losers in a row is 2%

 

[andymac]

evening gents just in. going to get my self sorted fro half hour and will catch you then, read you pre- start post triple , i need to do the same i think.

 

[willoneau]

I would say win% this should reduce drawdown. ie at 45%win rate the chance of 10losers in a row out of 50 trades is 4.7% at 55%win chance of 10 losers in a row from 50 trades is 0.8%
At 50% win chance of 10 losers in a row is 2%

I am tending to lean that way too triple , I have not been in such a rush to move my stops up especially when the markets opened like yesterday .