GBP/USD

Forecast for this week, 19-23. H4 graph (dated 04/26/10)
After leaving the “B-B+” uptrend (going under level 1.5333) the pair is now trading along the downtrend having the drop targets seen at level 1.5137 (first) and 1.4940 (second). Level 1.5137 may become a strong support, and so when the market will retrace from it the pair will get a good chance to form the right shoulder of a “head and shoulders” trend-turning figure. If the pair takes this chance, the shoulder formation is supposed to be finished around resistance levels 1.5333–1.5382, from where the pair will continue downtrend development with the drop target set to level 1.4940 (1.4815).

Developing of an uptrend is possible only in case the pair rises above level 1.5450. If so, the pair’s upside target will be set to level 1.5800.




Forecast for this month, April. Daily graph (dated 04/26/10)
The pair is trading along the “N-N+” correctional uptrend of the 4th wave. The pair has reached a strong resistance level 1.5493, and we can see at H4 graph that a “head and shoulders” trend-turning figure (namely its right shoulder) is being formed now, which points at possibility of downtrend development.

In case the pair goes under level 1.5205 the market’s downside momentum will be amplified, leading to drop at level 1.5000 (key support). If the pair also goes below 1.5000, the current 4th correctional wave will be completed and the pair’s drop target will be set to level 1.4355.

An uptrend development may begin if the pair rises above level 1.5575 and then gets to key resistance level 1.5870 (the higher bound of weekly downtrend). If the upside continues above level1.5870, the pair will get to intermediate resistance 1.6150, and in case of further rising the upside target will be set to resistance level 1.6500.

Forecast for the week, 05/17 – 05/21
The pair is trading below the “a” trendline along a downtrend. It has reached key support 1.4260 recently. The lower bound of “E-E+” trend, “E” trendline, also passes through that support. Support 1.4260 is a very strong level, and so we may expect an uptrend to develop from there in case the pair rises above level 1.4500. If so, it will then get to resistance 1.4700. Upon further upside above that level the upside momentum will grow stronger and the pair will reach resistance 1.5130.

Otherwise, if the pair goes below level 1.4100, the downtrend will be resumed and the market will head to level 1.3690.




Monthly forecast, May – June
The pair is trading along the “B-B+” downtrend rebounding off key support level 1.4260. Also, the lower bound of “E-E+” downtrend passes through that level. Therefore, the market gets two variants of events to proceed:

1. In case the pair rebounds off current support 1.4260 and rises above level 1.4700, an uptrend will start to develop with the upside target set at resistance level 1.5500 (the higher bound of “E-E+” downtrend). Intermediate resistance will be found at level 1.5130, and then a correction to support 1.4700 may proceed. Next, if the pair rises above level 1.5130, resistance will be seen at level 1.5330.

2. If current support 1.4260 fails keeping the pair from downside attempts and the market drops below level 1.4100, next drop target will be seen at support level 1.3690.




Quarterly forecast, May – July
After touching key support level 1.4260 the pair is trading along the “E-E+” downtrend. That support level may become the endpoint of current downtrend, and even the starting point of an uptrend if the market rises above level 1.5450.

Upon rising above level 1.5450, an uptrend will be developed with the upside target set at key resistance level 1.6900, from where a correction to support 1.5450 will be possible. Next, if the pair goes on above resistance 1.6900, the upside momentum will go stronger and the pair will head to resistance level 1.8530.

Otherwise, if level 1.4260 fails keeping the pair from downside attempts and the market drops below level 1.4100, the downtrend will be resumed and the pair will get to support level 1.3230.




Yearly forecast, 2010 – 2011.
After touching key support level 1.4260 the pair is trading along a downtrend. If the market rises above level 1.5450, support level 1.4260 may become the starting point of an uptrend (taking into consideration the picture at weekly graph), and then the pair will get to key resistance 1.6900. A confident uptrend will be started as soon as the pair gets over that key resistance. In such case a “double bottom” trend-turning figure will be formed and the upside target will be set at intermediate resistance level 1.8530 (possibly accompanied by a correction to support 1.6900). If the market continues the upside after that, it will eventually find itself around key resistance 1.9800.

Otherwise, if the pair continues going down below key support 1.4260 and gets under level 1.4100, the downtrend will be resumed with the drop target set at intermediate support 1.3690. If the market continues the downside below that support, next target will be seen at support level 1.3230. That level is a strong support, however if the pair manages going under it, the downside momentum will grow even stronger, and the pair will eventually get to level 1.0000.

The UK has its budget tomorrow at mid-day UK time. This budget has been said by the Chancellor of the Exchequer to be the toughest budget in the history of the United Kingdom. UK debts are now far over £1 trillion and the country is adding deficit at around £160 billion per annum.

There will be a wailing and a nashing of teeth across the pond.

noirua said:

The UK has its budget tomorrow at mid-day UK time. This budget has been said by the Chancellor of the Exchequer to be the toughest budget in the history of the United Kingdom. UK debts are now far over £1 trillion and the country is adding deficit at around £160 billion per annum.

There will be a wailing and a nashing of teeth across the pond.

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Yeh, should be good fun!

Current trend is descending with target 1.5647
Upward trend can start its development in a case of the pair movement higher the level of 1.5830, after that the arrival on the resistance level of 1.5963 will happen.

Gone short on this setup for a giggle and for less than half the amount shown.
It's the only way to learn this forex stuff, you can't paper trade the psychology that comes with real $$ and posting your trades

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Good luck Boggo, I haven't traded the old cable since mid August/early Sep.

Liquidity providers (banks, ECNs etc) are net short on GBPUSD for the first time in a while. Cable really does seem to lead the market sometimes.

sinner said:

Good luck Boggo, I haven't traded the old cable since mid August/early Sep.

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Thanks sinner, I am just going off the chart signals only at the moment without considering other factors that I probably need to consider.
I have set aside x amount of $ to risk losing and no definite time period for this exercise, at the moment I am up about 16% after a couple of weeks but that in itself is a sucker trap.

Currencies may get interesting about 11:30pm tonight when the US announce their unemployment figures, $AUD parity perhaps ?

Stopped out at 1.58660 as it came back up, profit of 1.9 times capital risk.

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Gone long on this setup, stop now at breakeven.

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Stopped out for 1.4 times risk.

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GBP/USD November 29, 2010

Current Price: 1.5590




With our current bearish outlook on GBP/USD we would take any pull backs as shorting opportunities with the first target at the 1.5480 level and, in case of a further slide down, at the 1.5250 level.




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DISCLAIMER: This is a qualified estimation of the Market situation, which can prove, and has sometimes proven, to be incorrect. Trading in instruments involves high risk. Do not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. It is your money at risk, you must always invest it with prudence.

The pair is trading along an sideways trading pattern. An uptrend will start as soon as the pair rises above resistance level 1.5810, which will be followed by moving up to resistance level 1.5882.
An downtrend will start as soon as the pair drops below support level 1.5715, which will be followed by down to support level 1.5615.
Resistances: 1.5810, 1.5882.
Supports: 1.5715, 1.5615.

Weekly forecast, 01/03–01/07
The pair is trading along an uptrend, but its further upside is constrained by resistance levels 1.5590 and 1.5635, both of which had been tested last week.
We can expect an uptrend to continue in case the pair keeps rising above resistance level 1.5635, which will be followed by moving up to a strong resistance level 1.5725. Should the market get over that level too, it will get to key resistance 1.5800.

We can expect a downtrend to start in case the pair drops below support level 1.5545, which will be followed by moving down to support 1.5360. The nearest strong support is seen at level 1.5265.

Forecast weekly, 02/14–02/18
The pair is trading along a downtrend. We can expect the downtrend to continue upon the pair gets under support level 1.6000, which will be followed by moving down to support 1.5825, on the way to which level 1.5930 will serve as an intermediate support. As soon as support 1.5825 will be reached, a probability of correction towards resistance 1.6000 will emerge. But if it eventually gets under support 1.5825, we will expect the downside momentum to grow stronger and the pair to reach support 1.5590.
An uptrend will start upon the pair rises above resistance level 1.6105, which will be followed by moving up to resistance levels 1.6185, then to 1.6265, and finally to1.6445.

That rally through the 1.626 barrier last night cost me dearly, thought there was good resistance there last night any thoughts? Just a big rally??? A little confused I must admit...

GBP/USD technical analysis

Base on the technical indicators,
Commodity Channel Index (CCI) is bullish for GBP/USD.
GBP/USD formed a bullish Price & Exponential Moving Average Crossover signal.
The 10-day simple moving average is bullish and moving up for GBP/USD.
GBP/USD formed a bearish Stochastic Crossdown signal.

Re: GBPUSD

Noooo, cmon, pretty please with sugar on top

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Stopped out - next 1000 trades

Boggo said:

Stopped out - next 1000 trades

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And this is an example of why you have stops in place, live to fight another day

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