GBG - Gindalbie Metals

[oldblue]

More good news for GBG. WA state government to push for early completion of the Oakajee rail and port project.

http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/mp/6002149/push-for-earlier-oakajee-start-up/

 

[skyQuake]

and now we have a nice triangle brkout.

Also, ydays gap was a brkaway gap on the volume. It should have made a lower low today but instead makes Higher highs.

 

[Out Too Soon]

Never doubt there is a reason for my name One day I will learn to use a stop loss to tie in profits & be damned with the extra charge.
Yes Skyquake " It should have made a lower low today "
It didn't, = that's called the OTS SELL effect
:bricks1:

PS for example of OTS BUY effect see BOL thread

 

[Boggo]

It hit the typical Wave C target today as we were hoping for here https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=486066&postcount=778

I don't like that gap that it has left though, my stop is just below the gap now.

(click to expand)

 

[skc]

Never doubt there is a reason for my name One day I will learn to use a stop loss to tie in profits & be damned with the extra charge.
Yes Skyquake " It should have made a lower low today "
It didn't, = that's called the OTS SELL effect
:bricks1:

PS for example of OTS BUY effect see BOL thread

It's ok mate. Change your name to Let profit run and see if that improve your results.

Like Boggo says the bottom of the gap offers a cheap entry should you feel like going into it again, although whether the gap closes is not guaranteed.

BTW what does OTS stand for?

 

[bigdog]

http://news.theage.com.au/breaking-...oject-to-start-in-december-20091005-gjac.html

Gindalbie project to start in December
REBECCA LE MAY
October 5, 2009 - 7:54PM
Gindalbie Metals Ltd says it is poised to commence construction of its $1.8 billion Karara iron ore project in Western Australia's midwest region before the end of the year.

"With the final state environmental approvals signed off during September, we will be well and truly on track to start construction at Karara early in the December 2009 quarter," incoming chairman Geoff Wedlock said in the company's annual report on Monday.

Outgoing chairman George Jones said in the report that a new steel mill owned by the company's joint venture partner and largest shareholder, Angang Group Hong Kong (Ansteel), "awaits the arrival of our first shipment of magnetite concentrate from Karara".

Chief executive Garret Dixon said the company aimed to commence hematite production by early 2011 and magnetite production by mid-2011.

Initial production totalling 10 million tonnes per annum will be exported through Geraldton Port.

The company expects to become a foundation customer of the planned new deepwater port at Oakajee, north of Geraldton, for expanded output thereafter.

Mr Jones has led a chorus of complaints from WA's mining sector about lengthy delays experienced with the state's approvals processes.

"The Karara project took the best part of three years for approval," he said.

"There is no doubt that the approvals process in WA remains unacceptably slow, over-complicated and in need of a major overhaul, and I am pleased to see the government is addressing this as a major issue."

Gindalbie was recently successful in appealing against key conditions and recommendations by the WA Environmental Protection Authority regarding the Karara project.

 

[Out Too Soon]

It's ok mate. Change your name to Let profit run and see if that improve your results.

Like Boggo says the bottom of the gap offers a cheap entry should you feel like going into it again, although whether the gap closes is not guaranteed.

BTW what does OTS stand for?

Well I could change my name but that would upset the moderators apart from that I formed the habit of being Out Too Soon & it works alright for me when things are volatile.

Back in friday, maybe I'll hold on a little longer this time,

chart's saying at least 1.05 plus?

 

[skc]

Well I could change my name but that would upset the moderators apart from that I formed the habit of being Out Too Soon & it works alright for me when things are volatile.

Back in friday, maybe I'll hold on a little longer this time,View attachment 33770

chart's saying at least 1.05 plus?

Nice re-entry. The coiling triangle has a height of ~32c, so a textbook target of $1.2 seems right. As to a real target.. who knows.

 

[Out Too Soon]

Nice re-entry. The coiling triangle has a height of ~32c, so a textbook target of $1.2 seems right. As to a real target.. who knows.

32c might be a bit of a stretch but I've proven over & again that I under-estimate the high to my dis-advantage.
Let's see where this gos, it'll be educational at least for those not on it & profitable for us. The real conundrum is happily where the peak will be this time I think I'll use a stoploss & manually trail it up this time

( PS; OTS stands for Out Too Soon, it threw me when ppl started calling me that too - i.e no it's not a technical term! LOL )

 

[Dreadweave]

I jumped in on Thursday at .925 Should have waited till today like i was planning but i got a bit anxious.

down 3.2% at lunch time.

 

[Out Too Soon]

I jumped in on Thursday at .925 Should have waited till today like i was planning but i got a bit anxious.

down 3.2% at lunch time.

Never mind, that's share trading you're still in at the right end of the breakout (I hope).

I'll shut up now before I jinx us all

 

[chrism0014]

Good news for Gindalbie this month. Keeping an eye on this one. Do not hold any shares. Does anyone have any broker reports on this one.

 

[Dreadweave]

Good news for Gindalbie this month. Keeping an eye on this one. Do not hold any shares. Does anyone have any broker reports on this one.

Im really getting excited about this stock. of course there is the recent government environmental approval for the development of their new mine.

http://www.wabusinessnews.com.au/en-story/1/76324/Gindalbie-gets-fed-govt-Karara-go-ahead

Also my charting shows some good future for the stock. In my books its all looking good.

 

[bigdog]

The article below includes following paragraph:

The boys at Southern Cross Equities are even more bullish, setting a 12-month target for Gindalbie of $1.64 a share, with further upside to $2.02 a share should magnetite production be increased from the initial rate of 8 million tonnes a year to an annual rate of 12 million tonnes a year.

http://www.businessday.com.au/business/green-light-for-gindalbie-to-crack-karara-20091108-i3jl.html

Green light for Gindalbie to crack Karara
BARRY FITZGERALD
November 9, 2009

THE $2 billion Karara joint venture between Gindalbie Metals and China's AnSteel in Western Australia's mid-west region has hit the ground running since receiving the final environmental clearance for the project late last month.

The joint venture is already knocking down trees in early earthworks for the project, and by June next year there will be 1000 workers on site to make certain the project hits its first production target of 2010 for hematite, followed by first production of high-grade magnetite in 2011.

Before any greenies out there fret about the trees, it's worth noting that the 30-year-plus project will occupy an area of less than 100 hectares.

That's a fraction of the size of the mid-west's average-sized pastoral property (2500 hectares), none of which are known for their green canopies or their ability to generate the sort of returns to the nation that Karara will.

Receipt of the last of the environmental approvals means that it has taken about 3 ½ years for the Karara joint venture to get to the starting line. In China, they do things a bit differently.

In the same period, AnSteel has designed and built a $US5 billion steel mill in north-eastern China. That mill is now being fed by iron ore from Brazil, pending the completion of Karara.

But enough of the ridiculous amount of time it takes to get things done in Australia.

The point today is that the market's frustration with the delays in Karara getting started have now passed, forcing a re-rating of Gindalbie in the process.

Unlike a host of other iron-ore hopefuls in the mid-west, and the Pilbara for that matter, Gindalbie has a real project on its hands, one that is plugged into China's ongoing urbanisation and industrialisation boom more than most, thanks to AnSteel's 50 per cent stake in the project and its 36 per cent stake in Gindalbie.

Gindalbie closed 3.5 ¢ higher at 85.5 ¢ on Friday. The question now is, where to from here?

Back on October 30, when the final environmental clearance came through, Gindalbie was trading a bit higher than Friday's close at 89 ¢ a share. UBS said at the time that the stock was trading at a 32 per cent discount to a (base case) net present value of $1.30 a share.

The base case reflected the Karara joint venture's initial plan to start out with annual production of 3 million tonnes of direct-shipping (hematite) iron ore and 8 million tonnes of magnetite.

''We also highlight the potential for significant value from expansion, with the joint venture holding aspirations to get to 30 million tonnes a year [once the Oakajee Port is built by others, with the help of contributions from the West Australian and Federal governments],'' UBS said.

It noted that if an 8-million-tonne-a-year expansion was locked in by the joint venture, it would be worth another 50 ¢ a share to its Gindalbie valuation.

The boys at Southern Cross Equities are even more bullish, setting a 12-month target for Gindalbie of $1.64 a share, with further upside to $2.02 a share should magnetite production be increased from the initial rate of 8 million tonnes a year to an annual rate of 12 million tonnes a year.

''All of this is to be shipped through Geraldton Port. Longer term, the Oakajee Port and Rail Project provides the opportunity to further double production … with even greater potential share-price upside,'' Southern Cross said.

There are still a couple of loose ends for Gindalbie and the joint venture to tie up before the market re-rating of Gindalbie can get into full swing.

First, there is finalisation of the $US1.2 billion ($A1.3 billion) in Chinese project financing for the project. Then there is completion of the pricing mechanism for sales to AnSteel or, more to the point, the size of the premium to Pilbara iron blends that it will pay for Karara's magnetite concentrates (lower-grade magnetite gets upgraded to a higher-grade product with less of the nasty impurities in direct-shipping ore).

Both are tipped to be wrapped up early in the New Year. And, depending on who you talk to, contract iron-ore prices by then could be 10-per-cent-plus higher than last year's settlement.

 

[Dreadweave]

Heres a slightly different analysis Iv done of the 1 year chart. Still looks good.

 

[calais]

In regards to the 1.3 billion loan, what percentage of the loan will Gindalbie owe? Sent email to the company without a reply.

 

[oldblue]

In regards to the 1.3 billion loan, what percentage of the loan will Gindalbie owe? Sent email to the company without a reply.

Yes, it would be interesting to know if the loan to Karara Mining Ltd is project finance and non recourse against the JV partners or whether GBG is up for its 50% of the liability.

 

[bigdog]

http://www.proactiveinvestors.com.a...ny-marks-start-of-new-iron-ore-mine-3550.html

Tuesday, December 01, 2009

Gindalbie Metals Karara ground breaking ceremony marks start of new iron ore mine
by Ross Louthean, Mineweb.net


The Karara iron ore project, 225 kilometres east of the port of Geraldton is Western Australia's latest iron ore mine as a result of the new wave of companies that have broken the total dominance of BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto in the Western Australian iron ore business. The first to break the padlock was Fortescue Metals Group in the Pilbara two years ago.

Karara is a joint venture between Gindalbie Metals Ltd (ASX: GBG) and major Chinese steel and iron ore company Ansteel.

Gindalbie's managing director Garret Dixon said Karara was the first major mine development in the Mid West and also one of only a handful of new magnetite projects to be developed in Australia. These magnetite projects herald a new era of downstream processing for the industry in the emerging Mid West iron ore province.

Initial site clearing activities and preliminary earthworks started early in November following receipt of final Commonwealth environmental approval and State Government environmental approval.

The project will initially produce 10 million tpa of iron products in 2011, comprising 8 Mtpa of high-grade magnetite concentrate, a value-added product, and 2 Mtpa of direct shipping ore (DSO). Karara was said to have potential to produce more than 30 Mtpa over a mine life of more than 30 years.

Karara will initially generate around A$1 billion (US$907 million) in annual export revenues, building to A$3 billion (US$2.72 billion) annually as the project grows.

Iron products will initially be exported through Geraldton Port, with Karara also able to commit foundation tonnages to underpin the development of the new multi-billion dollar Oakajee Port in the region.

 

[Bosco]

Happy new year. Just climed out of my cave. Not much chat lately about GBG. Given it is now around $1.30 and $2b of funding secured, higher ore prices but still growth uncertainty (fewer growth probs for China)
will we see it hitting the Southern Cross $1.65 in the near future? I am always perplexed by GBG every time I think it is a no brainer it goes down. Perhaps little fury bears should not buy shares.

 

[oldblue]

Happy new year. Just climed out of my cave. Not much chat lately about GBG. Given it is now around $1.30 and $2b of funding secured, higher ore prices but still growth uncertainty (fewer growth probs for China)
will we see it hitting the Southern Cross $1.65 in the near future? I am always perplexed by GBG every time I think it is a no brainer it goes down. Perhaps little fury bears should not buy shares.

What is there to chat about?

GBG closed at $1.33.5 on Friday, just a 120% increase over the last 12 months!

Good progress being made but production is still some way off so expect hiccups in the SP as interest waxes and wanes. I'm happy to hold.