GBG - Gindalbie Metals

[Sean K]

cheers kennas thanks for the info. Either way it looks good tho. Any good websites u no of that can give me a heads up on reading charts and so forth?

There's heaps if you google some key words like 'chart analysis' etc. I've found chart school to be good. Lots of info there when you file through. The glossary is a good place to start...

 

[richo78]

Had a quick look at that site Kennas and i didnt realise there is so many lines and things u can do with charts.. So much to learn! But it will provide some good bedtime reading. I had a quick look at the ROY chart v.similar to GBG. Might b worth closer inspection. Thanks 4 ur help anyway.

 

[Djayness]

I take charts with a pinch of salt to be honest. They just follow trends through quantitative analysis and do not account for external factors such as current news/announcements, future earnings potential, price rises in that industry etc etc.


Not saying that they are flat out unreliable, but I wouldnt use charting information on its own to make buying and selling decisions.


As for GBG, bit disappointing today. It will be interesting to see what happens on monday, maybe today was just a day for the sp to consolidate before moving further.

 

[Sean K]

I take charts with a pinch of salt to be honest. They just follow trends through quantitative analysis and do not account for external factors such as current news/announcements, future earnings potential, price rises in that industry etc etc.

Not saying that they are flat out unreliable, but I wouldnt use charting information on its own to make buying and selling decisions.

As for GBG, bit disappointing today. It will be interesting to see what happens on monday, maybe today was just a day for the sp to consolidate before moving further.

Each to their own. Of course they're not totally reliable. As you indicate, they didn't account for 9/11 etc. They do however factor in all the available information the market has along with general market sentiment. It can be a difference between whether you are an investor, or a trader, also. There are many traders here, who soley trade off charts trading stocks and indicies who are doing just fine. Likewise, there are investors who do OK too. I use them in conjunction with fundamentals to pick entry and exit points, which allows me to pick up trends, and conserve capital. Using charts to pick exits has saved my bacon on several occasions. You never look at a stocks chart? Never look to see if somethings trending up, or down? Interesting.

 

[hangseng]

Nobody wants to miss out!!!!!!
The buyer/s of some 24,000,000 shares just a few weeks ago (if they choose)can now sell for a 50% profit. Hmmm

Can you explain!
On the 26/12/07 Hangseng wrote:
The only challenge at present is the sp. looking at multiple moving averages in 3x5 bands (ranging from 7-250 days) I foresee GBG consolidating around $1.10 to $1.30 until production commences. If $1.10 doesn't hold could go back to long term support at .90-.95c

My concern at the time of posting 26/12/07 was that the shorter term moving averages (6-10days) had crossed over the longer term MA's (180-250) being a bearish sign. Looking now GBG had actually breached support on 13/11/07 but I wasn't so concerned at that point and continued to hold.

On the 27/12/07 GBG increased to 125.5 on very low volume to the 15 day MA. On the 28/12/07 the 15 day MA confirmed resistance and the sp dropped back to 1.20 and began to look weak again. By the 3/1/08 it was now clear GBG was heading lower as the 250 day MA was breached, this confirmed my thoughts on the 26/12/07. GBG did not go to 90c as predicted it went to 60c on the 22/1/08 and I was completely out of the market long before.

By the 4/12/08 I had sold all of my stocks to lock in profits, as it was also clear this was not just about GBG. I also noticed BHP was quite weak and had crossed the 150day MA and of concern was the ASX had is largest one day drop in over 2 months by volume. The ASX declined thereafter and remains in decline.

Back to GBG. It has now reversed the decline significantly. On 1/5/08 GBG breached all MA's up to 130 days, I bought back in at 91c. On 2/5/08 GBG had breached all long term MA's convincingly displayed by the bullish harami candle and had broken resistance at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement (FIB). GBG was going much higher, and did just that. GBG has now broken resistance at 50% Fib and closed at the 68.8% Fib at $1.36.

I have now changed my view in that GBG will continue to rise on the back of confirmation of the following in this order.

• 
  [1.]Commencement of new rail line to Geraldton
  [2.]EPA approvals
  [3.]Confirmation of tie in to the Oakajee rail
  [4.]Shipment of first ore
  [5.]Commencement of full production

The latest broker report I have read indicates GBG at >$2.50 and a short term target of $2.00. A view I tend to agree with.

 

[MR.]

I foresee GBG consolidating around $1.10 to $1.30 until production commences.

"until production commences"

The statement was very bold. How easily ones outlook changes once the price increases.

Thanks for explaining the circumstances.

 

[hangseng]

"until production commences"

The statement was very bold. How easily ones outlook changes once the price increases.

Thanks for explaining the circumstances.

Also your response is quite selective in regard to analysis Mr. In my original post I stated quite clearly my technical concerns, which as it turned out were conservative as GBG went well below the 90c I indicated. With the benefit of hindsight it was rather an accurate call I would say. Anyone trading and heeding that call would have saved a considerable sum especially if there were close to margin calls. They would have also been able to buy back in cheaper than they sold at, as I have done.

If we could predict sentiment I probably would not have made the production comment, however that is near on impossible to foresee what is going to occur 5 months following a call being made. That call was more based on my overall market sentiment and GBG' historical movement seemingly aligned. As it turns out GBG has very strong early support and yes I saw that coming technically and it was supported with the obvious impending notices regarding rail access, ore demand/prices etc.

My call was correct based on the information I had on hand at the time. As it turned out my overall market call was even better.

 

[chimp]

Dear MR.,

I think the movement of stock market is beyond anyone's expectations. Hence I believe a trader has to constantly adjust its decision making based on immediate perception of where the market is heading. There are simply too many factors impacting share markets for people to grasp for any prediction over than a couple of months, especially in the current volatile market, both technical factors and foundamental factors.

As a matter of fact, GBG did decline to even lower than $.90. Thanks to the post, I sold my positions and cut loss.


The only thing that doesn't change in stock market is change itself. That's what I have learnt over my short trading history.

Regards

 

[richo78]

Hey hangseng, just wondering if u could explain the Fibonacci retracement (FIB) percentages and how u come up with them please? I'm starting to get right into charting and am keen to learn as much as i can. Another awesome day for GBG

 

[hangseng]

Hey hangseng, just wondering if u could explain the Fibonacci retracement (FIB) percentages and how u come up with them please? I'm starting to get right into charting and am keen to learn as much as i can. Another awesome day for GBG

I would love to say something to make me sound really clever but no chance

I use http://www.incrediblecharts.com/help/fibonacci_retracement.php

There is a complex mathmatical method to it, however IC make it easy. I must say it is amasing how accurate it can be at times. Used along with price, volume and RSI I am getting better results every day.

MACD and DMI can be used as well as a multitude of other indicators but I prefer to use the KISS method. I don't mind a bit of cuddling at times either

I am far from an expert chartist (as the better ones on ASF would know) but I am getting better.

 

[richo78]

Cheers 4 that.. So much info going in and so many lines on my charts i think im getting confused!!

 

[hangseng]

Cheers 4 that.. So much info going in and so many lines on my charts i think im getting confused!!

richo78, the best thing I was taught when I first started charting was to keep it very simple and start slowly with as few indicators as possible.

All I ever used intially (and still find it the best) was simply price and volume. I slowly introduced Bollinger Bands and RSI.

Now I use a mixed version of Multiple Mean Averages (MMA). If you want to learn about them read a a marvellous entertaining book by Daryl Guppy "13 strategies of the Chinese for Financial Traders". You may even find this on ASF Shop bookstore (support this website wherever you can, see link at the top of the page). I just found it for you in the ASF Shop: http://www.moneybags.com.au/default.asp?d=0&t=1&id=5096&c=0&a=74

Tech/A and others on ASF would be of more technical assistance than me. I have only been doing this for just over 3 years and still have a lot to learn.

Best advice, keep it simple start slowly, look what the likes of Tech/a and others post up on charting and read all you can on the subject. Most of all practice and don't be afraid to ask.

 

[Sean K]

With all the M&A, placements, strategic stakes taking place in the sector, I would not be surprised to see this as one of the next to be put under the ruler. Is going to be in production in short time and has some great exploration potential. The Opes thing has put a question mark over some of their shares, but Ansteels strategic stake is of interest. Will they maintain the major holding to ensure offtake, or will they want more? With such a massive resource, and potential for major upgrades in both Mag and DSO, why would they be happy with the 50:50 JV, all the debt, major financing, and offtake? Why not take the whole company and long term control the entire asset? Is this possible? Perhaps there's some ownership rules there. I've only just started looking at the facts here, so happy to be educated. I've just bought some on the likely breakup.

 

[Sean K]

I'd call it a pole and pennant/flag with a target of 1.70/80 ish, depending on where you think the break up is and the top of the pole.

Seems to be following though, and I do hope that target is made. Just intraday, but looks to be breaking up.....I hate calling things antraday!!

I am only in for a chart trade at this point as it's not part of my general investment philosophy in the short term. I'll be happy to make a few cents on it. Looks to be pretty positive right now, subject ot general market mahem!

 

[the barry]

With all the M&A, placements, strategic stakes taking place in the sector, I would not be surprised to see this as one of the next to be put under the ruler. Is going to be in production in short time and has some great exploration potential. The Opes thing has put a question mark over some of their shares, but Ansteels strategic stake is of interest. Will they maintain the major holding to ensure offtake, or will they want more? With such a massive resource, and potential for major upgrades in both Mag and DSO, why would they be happy with the 50:50 JV, all the debt, major financing, and offtake? Why not take the whole company and long term control the entire asset? Is this possible? Perhaps there's some ownership rules there. I've only just started looking at the facts here, so happy to be educated. I've just bought some on the likely breakup.

Mate, go to the website and read the report from ccz, gives a good write up on the company and compares to other iron ore hopefuls in the region. With the size of its resource (is going to double in the next month or so) and where it is at compared to the other companies, in terms of market cap this company looks very cheap.

http://gindalbie.com.au/

 

[jonojpsg]

Seems to be following though, and I do hope that target is made. Just intraday, but looks to be breaking up.....I hate calling things antraday!!

I am only in for a chart trade at this point as it's not part of my general investment philosophy in the short term. I'll be happy to make a few cents on it. Looks to be pretty positive right now, subject ot general market mahem!

Hey kennas,
Looks like your intraday call has been born out - almost at close and heading strongly for your target

I am on the side of thinking that this will get to around your target and then pause until EPA comes through with the all clear then head upwards again. Really with their resource and certainty of funding etc, they should be valued at least at $3-$4 (see my earlier post that could put them at $9). Even then they are only a $2bn company with a 1bn+ tonne resource - $2 a tonne in ground value even for magnetite is pretty LOW.

I'm sticking with them

 

[the barry]

Hey kennas,
Looks like your intraday call has been born out - almost at close and heading strongly for your target

I am on the side of thinking that this will get to around your target and then pause until EPA comes through with the all clear then head upwards again. Really with their resource and certainty of funding etc, they should be valued at least at $3-$4 (see my earlier post that could put them at $9). Even then they are only a $2bn company with a 1bn+ tonne resource - $2 a tonne in ground value even for magnetite is pretty LOW.

I'm sticking with them

Have to remember though that they only own 50 percent of the karara project and 100 percent of all other targets. Looking very bullish to me, but what do i know

 

[DarkyII]

Correct they only own 50% of Karara, however it looks like this will be proved to 2.2 - 2.8 billion tonnes. Hence they own 1.1 to 1.4 tonnes themselves.

New DSO targets are mostly owned by GBG 100% which could add on 80 to 100mt of high grade DSO (assuming targets are met).

Lodestone is 100% GBG, and is said to be a 1 billion tonne magnetite resource.

Not sure on Blue Hills North but its 41% grade magnetite with around 111 mt.

Very cheap considering MMX and MIS comparisons. They haven't even done a BFS nor anywhere near the closeness to GBG's production of Karara.

Bring on $2 in the short term.

 

[richo78]

Ah.. accidentally sold my shares. Thought i could put a sell offer in at a lower price but couldn't so my shares got sold! Oh well made a nice profit and just hope it goes down a bit so i can by some more. Another awesome day tho with vol up 45%.

 

[the barry]

Ah.. accidentally sold my shares. Thought i could put a sell offer in at a lower price but couldn't so my shares got sold! Oh well made a nice profit and just hope it goes down a bit so i can by some more. Another awesome day tho with vol up 45%.

Huh? I have nooooooooooooo idea what this post means? Put a sell order in at a lower price? Lower price than what?