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Gann forecasts/real time trades

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Surely this thread hasn't been abandoned by the GANN GUYs

What started as full of promise has died well an truly with 4 not so good predictions??

It happens.
You can still make a profit with 30% winners provided they are big profits!
Common dust yourself off and back into it---if your using this to trade after investing countless hrs and no doubt lots of $$ what do you do?

STOP?
 
Under scrutiny Gann and its exponents falter.
When the exact science is less than exact practical application goes out the window.

The issue of which "Pressure point" is the one that will see price conform becomes a mentally agonizing dilemma for exponents.

I think its a pity as small losses and Large wins---which this method has the potential to deliver-- can be very profitable.

There has been a big turn on the European Indexes of late and the XJO.
With all the middle east issues Id have thought it would have been a monty to find with Gann.
 
tech/a said:
The issue of which "Pressure point" is the one that will see price conform becomes a mentally agonizing dilemma for exponents.
Click to expand...

Thats a good point only having a fixed date(s) to trade off can hamper trading. Gann wrote that having as many of the following line up would increase the quality of a potential trade: time, price, volume, pattern.

1. I find it best to work out price support and resistance off a weekly chart,
2. Then potential dates 90 and 120 degrees from prominent weekly swing tops/bottoms.
3. Then only trade when its at major date (+1 or -1 day) and major support or resistance level (allow for a small % variance in price, doesn't have to turn exactly on the resistance level).
4. Use the daily chart to get a close entry: entry on reversal bar or swing chart signal.
 

All makes sence conditions of entry just like any other setup.
But then of course the brain seizes once again when a major turn comes at a minor pressure point its missed.

But hey its not about being spot on its about profit and being right once could change your life on the right trade with enough $$s
 
Having dates do create a lot of pressure.

For me having too many dates too close together is not that practical to trade (but thats just me). Trying to forcasting a top on the 10th and a bottom on 13th is too close for me. I dont try and work out if the date will be a top or bottom 3 months in advance. If its running up into the date and about to meet my resistane point I'll look for a trade to go short.

Also if the stock/commodity trades up to the resistance level within a day of date forecast but the daily bar is not indicating a reversal I would wait a few days for the swing chart to make a lower top and bottom. Basically wait for the swing chart to show a change of trend.

Gann says to use a 3 point stop loss or a 5 point stop when a stock/commodity is at high levels. That was when the dow's extreme high was around 381 points. These days the dow trades a lot higher than 381 points. So if Gann says buy when the 50% level is crossed by 3 points back in 1930's, today we need to wait for a larger number of points before a major resistance level is considered as crossed.
 
Gann's Rule of 4 is in play for GSPC


I presume this rule is Trendline hit 4 times?
I presume you are looking at a short so how then would you apply this rule?
The trade?
 
tech/a said:
Gann's Rule of 4 is in play for GSPC


I presume this rule is Trendline hit 4 times?
I presume you are looking at a short so how then would you apply this rule?
The trade?
Click to expand...

Not quite.

The Rule of 4 states that a break of or bounce from a trendline on the fourth attempt could (actually the rule says will) result in a large move.

How to play? As you would any other bounce/penetration of a trendline, Fibonacci line, Gann line, etc. where your "I'm wrong" area is well defined. Note also that it is not the initial bounce/penetration that is of most importance but rather how things evolve over the short run, thereby allowing for head fakes.

Nothing magical and I suppose the rule could be extended (on the basis of my subjective observations) by saying that the more attempts at a line the higher the probability of a large move when the bounce/penetration occurs.

The rule is not cast in concrete but I've found it to be a useful addition to the toolbox.
 
Hi Colon,

Do you remember which book or course that rule was in?

I remember reading that the fourth time a stock hits the same level its usually goes through (in How to Make Profits in Commodities). But when it does hold the same level the forth time you can expect a large movement (i.e fourth bottom at $20).

In the same book Gann said the third/forth higher bottom is as strong as three/four lows at the same level. Is the the rule you are using? - i havn't got the book with me so my wording of the rule may be a bit off.

Thanks.
 

The book that I have is "Trading for Profit" by Vodopich published in 1984. But Googling turns up about 1200 hits, including http://www.solarmatrix.com/lessons/LESSON1.htm. However, one of the best resources for Gann, Murrey Math, and much more is Bonnie Hilll's website: http://mysite.verizon.net/bonniehill/index.html.
 
Hi Members , I am still around and went back over a few of those trades and realised I was incorrectly applying a few of the rules so went back to the books looking for some solutions , I admit some of the details and trading approaches were rather vague in detail and application so over the next few weeks will continue on this thread and endeavour to post more specific trading examples with a more rigorous description outling entry parameters position size and trade management outline .
 
Time Cycles indicate a Seasonal Low on Cotton for the 3rd May 2011 . The High was 219.70 on the 7th March . 540 Degrees or 1 1/2 rotations of 360 Degrees gives us a
( possible point of support ) between 140 - 141 which only serves as a price gauge . If price trades lower than last nights close of 146 1/2 and confirms the analysis of a Seasonal Low we could watch price on a 15 min chart to see if price trades down to this level and holds . Over the last month I have been doing further research into Time Cycles but my pricing projections require some further work so the price level outlined above is worked off the Square of Nine which is only a gauge but Time is the most important element behind a change in trend .
 
So your trade would be??

As in
I would buy if---and at this level?
Other wise all we have here is chatter.
 
tech/a said:
So your trade would be??

As in
I would buy if---and at this level?
Other wise all we have here is chatter.
Click to expand...

Bit like the EW threads in my view .......just mind numbing wish wash with no actual entrys or exits or mangageing the trade

getta lot of "i told you so ", lot of hinsight cirve fitting and a lot of it could go this way or that way..... not much in the way of live trading it tho....

bit like this thread, but at least here most already treat it as a joke

as you were.
 

Yeh
As you are
 
tech, for a cantankerous old coot, that's one of the funniest things you've ever said!
 
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