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Gann forecasts/real time trades

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With all due respects robertgordon, I haven't read any of your post above, it looks too familiar, ie the same old cut and past format from google etc.

A couple of questions...

Do you trade ?

Do you use charts ?

If yes to the above two questions can you just post up a recent (not the usually quoted 1948 Gann Soy Beans rehash) chart or a potential upcoming trade ?

It can be a chart of any item you wish to post, the principle should be the same, well maybe the same as I cannot even establish if that is the same from the people who post cycle predictions on this site and others.
Most of the cycle predictions I refer to however seem to be advice of upcoming news or possible takeover events etc as in my previous example with TXN.

I am not having a go at Gann etc, just asking how one might put it to use in a practical sense as the sort of nonsense on this video is useless imo.
http://www.youtube.com/user/OM618#p/c/74F52B6E55AC0A1F/1/73rrV-dVK80

Poor old Gazza on this video seems to be confusing Gann with Fibonacci
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tygO5awbG88&feature=related
 
OK
No trade on sugar and lots of typing.
Will wait patiently for something more suitable in the Softs.


It may be a bit of a shock Robert but there are traders who do exceptionally well without the need for Gann.
I for one am amused by those who are disciples of Gann in particular those who feel the need to prove to the world (and possibly themselves) that he was RIGHT.
It is this amusement which draws me to your work here.
I will refrain from criticising and let his and your work speak for itself.

So so far we have NO TRADE/S

Do you actually trade Gann Profitably/consistently? Or is it more of an analysis interest?
 
Corn Tuesday 4th January 2011 Seasonal Top .

I appreciate everyones comments and interest on Gann so tonight I did some work on the Corn Market and my research points towards a Seasonal Top on the 4th January as detailed above . Please appreciate at this point in time I cannot provide an accurate price at which I expect the peak to come in although I have prepared a list of three prices based upon angular and geometric calculations that might fit the bill but really my strategy is to wait for the day before or live on the day and see if price action conforms to these levels but the main aspect is Time and the expectation of a Top into this point .
The Lumber trade is still fairing well and timing projections indicate that there will be further downside into Jan 10 - 11th so its probably best to just focus on these two positions .
 
Thank you for the Turkey Coment Robert. Please read copied article below.



Let’s examine his theories of investment in more detail and see.

Let’s look at some common myths about how great a trader Gann actually was:

Many sources quote Gann’s trading profits at $50 million dollars, however this is not true.

An interview that Alexander Elder had with his son tells the truth.

Firstly, his son confirmed that when his father died in the 1950s his estate was valued at just $100,000 - and that included his house.

Secondly, his son confirmed that Gann was unable to make enough money from trading, and therefore supplemented his income by writing and selling courses.

W.D. Gann’s Predictions

Many sources quote he had a success rate in all his trades of over 90% - again not true. We can easily deduce this from the value of his estate.

If he could make money trading and had a 90% success rate, he would have made hundreds of millions in his trading career - and he clearly did not - that’s why he had to sell books and courses.

The only evidence of a 90% success rate came from a small number of trades - and was not representative of them all.

Gann’s Methods are Predictive

Gann came to the conclusion that all natural phenomena are cyclical - including financial markets. This is true, but this is an obvious statement - we all know we’re going to die but when exactly?

A predictive theory is not a predictive theory if it can’t predict.

If Gann’s theory really is predictive, then there would be no market - as we would all know the price in advance!

Gann’s theory is subjective - and he really had no way of predicting the future with accuracy. It’s all subjective analysis and this is NOT a predictive theory.

Gann’s Logic

The basis of Gann’s theory is the principle that price and time must balance.

His methods are based on the squaring of price with time - this occurs when a unit of price equals a unit of time.

Gann for example would take a prominent high in the market, convert that dollar unit into a specified period of time and project it forward. When that time is reached, price and time are squared - and a market turn is due.

What? - How can one unit of price equal one unit of time? If you think about and answer this question for yourself, you will see how absurd the connection is.

This isn’t the only inconsistency used in his analysis - we also have the legendary Fibonacci numbers which are supposed to work with stunning accuracy - but they don’t, and neither do all sorts of astrology and geometry, that appeals to the far out investment crowd.

As we have seen, Gann was a trader who had modest success, and claimed to have discovered a predictive theory - which predicts nothing with accuracy.

Finally, we have so many subjective indicators cobbled together, that the theory can prove anything in hindsight, but if you want a tool to trade the markets look elsewhere.

For those of you still not convinced - I recently saw on the Internet, Gann’s trading methods selling for under $1,000!

Sounds like a bargain to get trades with 90% accuracy - I wonder how many serious money managers have it on their bookshelf.

Enough said.
 
Robert you are getting a good hearing here

Seen a couple of spectacular calls over the years from Gann practitioners.

Meeting retail traders making money is quite hard but know a few who do really well myself haven't had a down year for the last 6 to 7 years, but never met a trader using Gann making returns not saying there are not any just never met them.

I will follow this thread with interest.
 
Jadel there is so much imfo around on Gann and below I have posted some more for you to have a look at . He didnt trade 1K to 30K in 60 days on guesswork and chance and pattern recognition trading cotton . a precise understanding of the connectivity between natural law and geometry and other factors were in use to achieve this , and this is not one solitary trade in islolation he had many such campaigns in one instrument or commodity where he had the ability to map out a precise timing projection where he anticipated peaks and troughs to expire . As you can appreciate there are many conflicting reports on Gann and his relationship with his son and whether the imformation and in what degree was passed on from father to son but really i dont know , I just try and study his courses and look for clues and sometimes you will learn new things and other times the material can be quite hard to grasp so I dont have a concise and comprehensive understanding of every single technique that Gann applied but after six years of extensive researching tests and applications Im pretty comfortable with my level of knowledge but i still keep pushing on and keep learning bits and pieces . So i have put up a forecast for Corn and we will see how that goes and work out some times as to how far it might run down.


Now having a look at some of your points perhaps he didnt pass away with an expensive estate and other financial interests but I think it would be quite a naive and simplistic assertion to conclude that his trading ability was measurable and should be judged entirely on what wealth or assets were left after his passing . I only know of his public trading records and his courses and it is not my business to speculate on his estate and other such issues .
From what I can ascertain Gann and his son had a tenuous relationship and Gann believed that his Son had to work hard to acquire the knowledge but instead choose to make paper aeroplanes and glide them out of his office window so perhaps the relationship and imparting of knowledege was not there but thats only conjecture , no one can really confirm that which is why I try not to make a decision on second part imformation . Gann is my primary source .

My question to you is if he had the mathematical ability to compound 1K into 30K in two months why would he be hard up for cash and solely reliant on selling precision and comprehensive courses in the instruction of forecasting and calculating grain and stock mkts . Have you possibly thought that the courses were designed and configured to assist serious students in their studies of market movements and time cycles . Do you realise how much 30K could buy back in early nineteenth century . Its a bit simplistic to think that sales were his primary income . it always make me laugh .

Many sources quote he had a success rate in all his trades of over 90% - again not true. We can easily deduce this from the value of his estate. Could we also deduce that Pavoroti was one of the worst operatic singers based upon his preference or choice of music.


The basis of Gann’s theory is the principle that price and time must balance.
You obviously havent made a patient and serious study of Gann if you believe that this was the entire basis behind his trading methodology . Most onlookers dont see beyond the obvious elements and work towards developing a deeper understanding into Timing techniques and Geometric principles , yes Gann assigned different values or increments to Cotton and Wheat only because vertain instruments trade in 1/8 or such increments so mathematically he had to scale his time and price co ordinates in proportion with the commodity he was trading but really the balancing of time and price whilst very comprehensive and detailed outline within his course wasnt the central driving componet behind his works but proper scaling was a critical componet .


Gann’s theory is subjective - and he really had no way of predicting the future with accuracy. It’s all subjective analysis and this is NOT a predictive theory.
Read the proof . Did you realise that Gann publicly predicted the 3rd September 1929 Top in August 1928 well in advance of that event occuring . Perhaps it was just a stab in the dark .
 
So looking to short corn 4 th or so of Jan.

By the way $100K in 1950 was a lot of $$$S a house would set you back $4-7k
I know that's what my father paid for his house in 1954.

Now the lumber trade your short?
How many contracts and what's your exit strategy?
Do you have a stop in place?
Volume is pretty terrible.
What's slippage like on this contract?
I presume your trading the CME contract.

Click to expand

LUMBER


CORN


Now we still haven't had the questions of DO YOU ACTUALLY TRADE answered.
Are you short Lumber and if so how are you trading it?
 
The basis of Gann’s theory is the principle that price and time must balance.
Click to expand...
Why ? what is the evidence for this ?

I don't think the cause is to be found simply in "time"

Surely ? ==>

While price takes time to move, time alone does not move price.
Click to expand...

So the important factor is not "time" but the something else that time is sometimes a sort of approximate proxy for...

Look forward to the thread unfolding
Gann is a window into some interesting methods..
But imo he was sidetracked by "time"

" The Basis of My Forecasting Method " was his earliest outline of
His Geometric Angles-- where he applied them to price and time.. is this true Robert ?

I have not found anything earlier. But would be interested to read if there is.

Geometric Angles themselves had an earlier origin.
But were not applied to "time"

Motorway
 
Hello Motorway , the previous post was in response to Jadels questions and observations
I may go quiet for a few days as researching Corn . take care .
 
I may go quiet for a few days as researching Corn
Click to expand...

A couple of days research on one trade??

Wow Dont know how you do it I go brainless after 10 mins!
 
Did I say I was going to spend three days researching one trade or are you re interpreting my words to suit your own purpose ? I have provided you with a date when I expect Corn to turn down so we will see how that works out . Sometimes I study price history going back 100 years which is all part of the research , this doest necesarily mean I will spend three days looking at price data to formulate a trade on corn . I have a few additional dates on corn so will post them soon . stick to your three day break outs and 30 day moving averages .
 
stick to your three day break outs and 30 day moving averages .
Click to expand...

That's a bit harsh.
I'm psychologically wounded!
 
robertgordon said:
Hello Motorway , the previous post was in response to Jadels questions and observations
I may go quiet for a few days as researching Corn . take care .
Click to expand...

I will be researching popcorn this afternoon. I'm off to the movies. A Horror, Thriller, Blood, Gore, Sex etc.etc.

Its called

" Tech/a Goes to Gann"

gg
 
In my journey as a trader the biggest single step I made was to stop 'predicting' and start 'reacting'.

What I mean is to stop trading on what I think is going to happen and start trading on what I know is happening.

Not saying that others cannot predict, maybe they can, but I know that even with my education and theoretical economic knowledge I am not successful at it.
 
sorry for having a dig Tech , it probably wasnt called for and I appreciate that everyone has their own techniques and employ different methods within their trading . To me it is not really about prediction even though my objective is to forecast a forward point in Time and seek to identify or examine what forces will be in existence at that given point in Time and try and asertain whether these Principles will have a bullish or bearish inclination on price direction . When these Natural Elements of Force converge and align at a central point in most circumstances they will have a lasting directional influence on price depending on the underlying magnitude of the force and how long that level of force can be sustained or remains in existence. Ganns mechanical approach worked towards creating an alignment between scientific mathematical and geometric elements and to try and align this with Natural Law , but in most ways its all pretty connected , the hard part is working out how it fits and how it will impact something , sure you have to react accordingly but if your trading projections are based on solid and tangible observations , if the commodity doesnt comply with your expectations , I just get out with a small loss , and work on something else , but really I dont spend days looking at one trade , although I do spend days doing research etc like anyone else , its all learning process and seeking to fill in the knowledge gaps etc . We are coming up to the 4th January 2011 Corn Top so bear with me and I will and zero in on a price either one day before or on the day .
 

So for you this is not a primary trading tool.
More a guide to possible trend reversals or at least halting.
You say you take a small loss if it goes against you

So how do you determine entry (The trade trigger) and determine stop (Position size etc)?
Perhaps---Breakouts and 30 day M/A's??

You trade these set-ups? (3rd time I've asked--nicely!)
 

RG, there are a few more universally accepted conventions when typing text (apart from paragraphing) which would make your 'wall of text' much easier to read, and they are:-

  • One space between words in the same sentence.
  • Two spaces after a full stop.
  • No spaces before a comma, full stop, colon or semi-colon.

Try it. It would make what you write much more readable.
 

Eh? Two spaces after a full stop is not correct AFAIK.

I find correct(ish) paragraph structure the most essential, without with results in the unreadable wall.

The other points on punctuation, though absolutely irritating, are bearable (just) if there are paragraphs.

For me, no paragraphs - no read.
 
Thanks Tech

So for you this is not a primary trading tool.

I look for integration , as an example on Corn and please appreciate that this is just an explanation on how the trade might play out . a contract on corn is 5000 bushels so a 1/8c fluctuation = 12.50 on one contract so a 1c fluctuation is equivalent to 50.00 on one contract so dependent upon the amount of contracts taken and how close you can position off the top determines the overall risk on your trade . on this particular trade lets say the top comes in at 636 and we enter three contracts short at 634 we are risking 2c or 100.00 per contract ( 5000 bushel ) x 3 ( 15000 bushel ) = 300.00 total risk , its not so much about primary trade mechanism , everything has a degree of importance and purpose and I look for interconnectivity between these things , such as 90 deg from peak 180 deg from trough , sometimes these permanent cycles can provide additional trade confirmation but they are a contributing factor to the decision
Position of price in accordance to Geometric Angles and whether the 4th January might come in on 1/2 of the square or price might be aspecting an angle on the square of nine , sometimes certain sections line up and other times there might be hidden componets that your knowledge base hasnt picked up or can recognise so I guess everything is important within the whole .

More a guide to possible trend reversals or at least halting.

yes through this process I seek to examine and try to accurately establish when certain lines of force will exert their impact upon the market .

You say you take a small loss if it goes against you

For sure , sometimes these laws and principles can be very accurate and allow you a forward projection but unlike Gann I dont have the full suite of skills to be able map out a daily or hourly projected curve ahead of time , but can attain sections of this , so yes if Corn doesnt conform to expectations we get stopped out with pre calculated loss .

So how do you determine entry (The trade trigger) and determine stop (Position size etc)?
Perhaps---Breakouts and 30 day M/A's??

Whats that , my trading programmes and printed charts only have timing projections and 45 & 22.5 degree Angles etc , everything else is an extrapolation of price and much of a reactionary componet , Ganns Angles are forward mathematical projections based upon the symetrical relationship between time and price .



You trade these set-ups? (3rd time I've asked--nicely!)

Yes just be a little patient and see how Corn reacts on the 4th January , hopefully I will be able work out a very close price which is based upon certain factors , and as it is my intention to hold this position for a while and endeavour to try and capture a large section of the prevailing move I will zero in on a 60 minute chart to try and get close off the Top with the circle of 24 . so just sit back and see how things go , if Corn doesnt Top into the forecasted date we have other trades pre calculated ready to go .

hope thats ok for you
 
One thing I think that will cause these types of projections problems

Is that you are not dealing with a steady state population of interest..

You well may project forward from a certain pivot..
That represented a disequilibrium at a certain time and yes it could play out in a certain way

However as price moves higher or lower.. The entire Population of interest may change by orders of magnitudes..

Blowing away and overriding the Dynamics set up at the time of the breakout from the pivot. So a potential top is simply absorbed.

Hence along a Price Time projection while price may well intersect at some stage
it could be anywhere along the line of "Forward Support and Resistance"

FORWARD SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE price levels are calculated from previous price action. In
the case of Gann Angles, FS/R is projected forward from a prior Pivot Point

Stocks & Commodities V. 3:5 (177-183): Gann Lines and Angles by Robert Pardo
Click to expand...


Gann actually referred to them as TRUE moving averages..

Now Support and Resistance either looking back at old congestion
or projecting forward from Pivotal points..
Still has the same inherent problem.

You still have to see what happens when you get there
and deal with that as it occurs..

In that case does having a preconceived potential TOP fixed in the mind..
cause more problems ( hence why certain Gann does not seem to work ) than just using the objective line to gauge changes in momentum ?


Motorway
 
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