Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Fundamental Positions II

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There is no such thing as a profitable initial stoploss.
Click to expand...

Sorry brain malfunction,meant stock or trade.

The thing that worries me Duc is that this drawdown is occuring in arguably the most bullish trading period we have seen or will see.

Sure early days but think some adjustments could have a positive effect.

Would be interesting to have a dabble with your trades not knowing anything about the exit and entry strategy only working with what you have and see what happens.
I'd keep those profitable in the portfolio and cull those with a 10% loss.
I'd add trades if I could (If capital was available) and not close those below their 180 day M/A to keep them in as long as possible allowing profits to run.
We would end up with different portfolios mine with possibly less stocks but I'm sure they would be working harder.
 
tech/a

The thing that worries me Duc is that this drawdown is occuring in arguably the most bullish trading period we have seen or will see.
Click to expand...

The US is coming off of a period of consolidation in chartie terms.
There have been sectors that have been outperforming, energy & commodities being the obvious ones.

Take the chicken's.......SAFM & GKIS, both suffering from negative sentiment regarding the bird flu, and reduced exports due to that fear.
Their prices will come back and return some 100% + on my investment. It's simply a question of when.

They were both down some 25% + at their worst, but possibly starting their comeback.

LRT, an oil trust that suspended dividends due to damage in the Bay of Mexico after the hurricanes..........assuming they escape them this year, will yield a 13% dividend on purchase price, and if returning to an equal bond yield some 400% return on capital

DRYS, a way to play the boom in commodities world wide. Shipping is hugely undervalued.........why pay a premium for zinc, copper etc, buy a 12% dividend yield in a company with a 48% operating margin.

Would be interesting to have a dabble with your trades not knowing anything about the exit and entry strategy only working with what you have and see what happens.
Click to expand...

Dabble away.
The portfolio's would be very different, no question.

jog on
d998
 
Hi Ducati

DRYS 12% dividend yield is notable. Just wondering what sort of dividend yield the other stocks in this portfolio are returning?

Thanks in advance

Cheers
Happytrader
 
happytrader

SAFM....2.9%
UST......5.8%
LRT.......12.8%
DRYS.....8.4%
SEPR.....0.38%

I do not necessarily purchase for dividends, that is no criteria of value taken as a single metric, but if given the choice I would prefer a dividend to be paid.

Tech stocks, SGTL, FORD to an extent, do not pay dividends thus will exhibit higher volatility as there is no base for buying pressure. This can be utilized to your advantage in the long term, but in the short term can look very ugly.

jog on
d998
 
Sold LRT @ $3.31

Interestingly, received the annual report yesterday.
Contained in the footnotes are a highlight to the indenture. This stated that should there be no income paid for 24 months, the shares could be liquidated at book value, or $0.12 per share.

jog on
d998
 
CALL......$4.76........................$3.91...... ...................(-17.8%)
SAFM......$26.45.....................$27.55....... .................+4.1%
FORD......$10.74.....................$6.05....... .................(-43.6%)
UST.......$41.25.....................$44.17....... ..................+7.0%
CTT......$4.00.......................$3.16........ ..................(-21%)
CQB......$17.47.....................$15.41........ .................(-11.7%)
TOL......$29.78.....................$30.85........ .................+3.6%
GKIS.....$14.05.....................$13.32........ .................(-5%)
KND......$21.94.....................$25.58........ .................+16.5%

SGTL....$10.30.....................$6.84.......... .................(-33.5%)
EVCI....$1.44.......................$0.92......... ...................(-36%)
DRYS....$10.59....................$9.92........ ...................(-5.7%)
SEPR....$92.50.................................... ..............................
Aggregate......................................... ....................(-10.5%)

Closed Trades

ISSC...................+8.1%
HNR....................+21.6%
EGY....................+61.8%
LRT....................+29.2%

Aggregate..............+30.2%

jog on
d998
 
What is SEPR? I assume it is not SEPR on the NASDAQ which closed at $46.23 as it hasn't been $92.50 in the last year.

So basically your portfolio is sitting on a circa 30% loss (assuming equal capital in each trade) when the S&P500 has gone up about 4-5% in last 3 months.
 
Nett loss on 17 trades is 1.317%
If a 10% stop was used then Profit would be 2.68% on the same portfolio.
Stop and let profits run then 2.8%.
 
markrmau

What is SEPR? I assume it is not SEPR on the NASDAQ which closed at $46.23 as it hasn't been $92.50 in the last year.
Click to expand...

Indeed it is on the NASDAQ.
I however hold the Convertble Bond at $92.50 or $925.00 per bond. Par value $1000.00

This is a longer term methodology.
The chicken's were showing a paper loss of circa 30%, they have come back.
LRT showed a paper loss of circa 30%, closed with a profit.

Patience.

jog on
d998
 
ducati916 said:
Patience.
Click to expand...
Certainly. 1-2% drawdown is nothing. I have a broker held ASX portfolio based on F/A positions. It did nothing for 6months (traded between +/-3% of initial value), but then over last 2 months shot up to almost 40% gain, and looks like rising a lot more now the techies are on board. ;)
 
Certainly. 1-2% drawdown is nothing.
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Mark dont know that I agree with that.
Given that this is supposedly a screaming Bullmarket and that others I know of have returned 15%+ over the same period and some stocks in the portfolio have to move up 80% just to breakeven,I personally would be questioning my allocation of capital.
Opportunities and emotion like this doesnt come along everyday,to not be taking advantage of it is plain foolish.

A torrid rigidity toward being right and the inflexability of conviction will I'm sure prove to be very expensive.

Ever thought how the portfolio would perform in even a moderate downturn?
 
markrmau said:
Don't forget Duc's method is for the US markets though.
Click to expand...

True and that I would be questioning as well.

"Go where the money is and go there often"
 
CALL......$4.76........................$3.81...... ...................(-19.9%)
SAFM......$26.45.....................$28.36....... .................+7.2%
FORD......$10.74.....................$5.51....... .................(-48.6%)
UST.......$41.25.....................$42.58....... ..................+3.2%
CTT......$4.00.......................$3.26........ ..................(-18.5%)
CQB......$17.47.....................$13.78........ .................(-21.1%)
TOL......$29.78.....................$28.72........ .................(-3.6%)
GKIS.....$14.05.....................$14.08........ ..................+0.0%
KND......$21.94.....................$23.14.... ......................+5.46

SGTL....$10.30.....................$5.86...... .......................(-43.1%)
EVCI....$1.44.......................$0.91........ ...................(-36%)
DRYS....$10.59....................$9.29...... ....................(-12.2%
SEPR....$92.50.................................... ..............................
Aggregate......................................... ....................(-14.39%)

Closed Trades

ISSC...................+8.1%
HNR....................+21.6%
EGY....................+61.8%
LRT....................+29.2%

Aggregate..............+30.2%

jog on
d998
 
CALL......$4.76........................$3.55...... ...................(-25.4%)
SAFM......$26.45.....................$30.00....... .................+13.4%
FORD......$10.74.....................$5.34....... .................(-50.2%)
UST.......$41.25.....................$43.00....... ..................+4.2%
CTT......$4.00.......................$3.95........ ..................(-1.2%)
CQB......$17.47.....................$14.28........ .................(-18.2%)
TOL......$29.78.....................$27.83........ .................(-6.5%)
GKIS.....$14.05.....................$14.65........ ..................+4.3%
KND......$21.94.....................$23.89.... ......................+8.8%

SGTL....$10.30.....................$5.58...... .......................(-45.8%)
EVCI....$1.44.......................$0.94........ ...................(-34%)
DRYS....$10.59....................$8.86...... ....................(-16.2%)
SEPR....$92.50.................................... ..............................
Aggregate......................................... ....................(-12.8%)

Closed Trades

ISSC...................+8.1%
HNR....................+21.6%
EGY....................+61.8%
LRT....................+29.2%

Aggregate..............+30.2%

jog on
d998
 
CALL......$4.76........................$3.72...... ...................(-21.8%)
SAFM......$26.45.....................$29.10....... .................+10.4%
FORD......$10.74.....................$5.22....... .................(-51.2%)
UST.......$41.25.....................$44.53....... ..................+7.9%
CTT......$4.00.......................$3.24........ ..................(-19.0%)
CQB......$17.47.....................$14.60........ .................(-16.2%)
TOL......$29.78.....................$29.08........ .................(-2.3%)
GKIS.....$14.05.....................$15.14........ ..................+7.7%
KND......$21.94.....................$25.39.... ......................+15.7%

SGTL....$10.30.....................$5.71...... .......................(-44.5%)
EVCI....$1.44.......................$0.87........ ...................(-39.0%)
DRYS....$10.59....................$9.16...... ....................(-13.5%)
SEPR....$92.50.................................... ..............................
Aggregate......................................... ....................(-12.7%)

Closed Trades

ISSC...................+8.1%
HNR....................+21.6%
EGY....................+61.8%
LRT....................+29.2%

Aggregate..............+30.2%

jog on
d998
 
CALL......$4.76........................$3.64...... ...................(-23.5%)
SAFM......$26.45.....................$31.08....... .................+17.5%
FORD......$10.74.....................$5.11....... .................(-52.2%)
UST.......$41.25.....................$44.12....... ..................+7.3%
CTT......$4.00.......................$3.07........ ..................(-23.2%)
CQB......$17.47.....................$14.60........ .................(-16.2%)
TOL......$29.78.....................$28.83........ .................(-3.1%)
GKIS.....$14.05.....................$15.26........ ..................+8.6%
KND......$21.94.....................$25.98.... ......................+18.7%

SGTL....$10.30.....................$5.50...... .....................(-46.5%)
EVCI....$1.44.......................$0.88........ ...................(-39.0%)
DRYS....$10.59....................$9.53...... ....................(-10.0%)
SEPR....$92.50.................................... ..............................
Aggregate......................................... ....................(-12.4%)

Closed Trades

ISSC...................+8.1%
HNR....................+21.6%
EGY....................+61.8%
LRT....................+29.2%

Aggregate..............+30.2%

jog on
d998
 

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