Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

France and Greece Elections - Omens of Doom?

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qldfrog said:
Time to resurrect this thread..as i follow my native country economy:
French debt is now viewed as more risky than Greece, with debt interest rates needed to be higher than Greece..
Click to expand...
the prevailing level of 10-year bond yields:
Greece 3.1%
France 3.04%
Spain 2.96%
Portugal 2.70%
Germany 2.23%
 
qldfrog said:
3.05% yesterday..i do not have access to the full article and it could be a specific duration not sure but they do not usually give BS figures
Click to expand...
those numbers were from the weekend, from a newsletter - hence Friday numbers.... the fuller commentary was thus:

"This week the ECB released its Financial Stability Review, which is published twice a year.

"It is an important publication, and a sobering one, which should now probably be called the ECB Fiscal Instability Review.

https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/financial-stability-publications/fsr/html/index.en.html

"This headline from the FT captures the essence of the report:

1732767681714.png

"I personally would single out France as the Fiscal Achilles Heel of Europe.

Look at the prevailing level of 10-year bond yields:
Greece 3.1%
France 3.04%
Spain 2.96%
Portugal 2.70%
Germany 2.23%

"How times have changed, and it is just a matter of time-a very short time- before French 10-year yields exceed those of Greece.

"It is also a matter of time, in my opinion, before we see a full-blown fiscal crisis in France with French yields climbing significantly higher...."
 
Dona Ferentes said:
those numbers were from the weekend, from a newsletter - hence Friday numbers.... the fuller commentary was thus:

"This week the ECB released its Financial Stability Review, which is published twice a year.

"It is an important publication, and a sobering one, which should now probably be called the ECB Fiscal Instability Review.

https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/financial-stability-publications/fsr/html/index.en.html

"This headline from the FT captures the essence of the report:

View attachment 188606

"I personally would single out France as the Fiscal Achilles Heel of Europe.

Look at the prevailing level of 10-year bond yields:
Greece 3.1%
France 3.04%
Spain 2.96%
Portugal 2.70%
Germany 2.23%

"How times have changed, and it is just a matter of time-a very short time- before French 10-year yields exceed those of Greece.

"It is also a matter of time, in my opinion, before we see a full-blown fiscal crisis in France with French yields climbing significantly higher...."
Click to expand...
👍,🙏, but yes, maybe time to reheat that thread...sadly for the French citizen left there
 
Screenshot_20241202_081832_Outlook~2.jpg
.
The chart above shows the differential between French and Greek 10-year bond yields going back to 2009.

Immediately evident is the explosion in Greek bond yields during the European sovereign debt crisis in 2011 and 2012.

At the height of the European debt crisis, Greek 10-year bond yields were 2,782 (two thousand seven hundred and eighty-two) basis points higher than their 10-year French counterparts.

The brutal fact is that French borrowing costs now exceed those of Greece.
.
.
From long ago,tehe Maastricht Treaty and the fiscal criteria that required member states to keep debt to GDP below 60%, and the budget deficit below 3% of GDP.

The French have been in breach of these ‘rules’ pretty much since they were conceived.

For the record, the current French budget deficit to GDP ratio is near 6%, and debt to GDP stands at about 112%.
.
...
.

Foreign investors own approximately 50% of France’s government debt, which compares to 28% in Italy, and about 30% in the U.S.

The single largest foreign holder of French debt is Japan, and in the next few weeks some of Japan’s largest institutional investors will be reviewing their allocation to French government bonds.
 
wayneL said:
Trouble in La France, @qldfrog ?

Your views and cutting through MSM propaganda would be appreciated.

Click to expand...
Just Macron debacle, he dissolved his majoriy parliament to stop the nationalist party rising ( far right is what is labelled any party that believes a country should put its citizen first before the globalists).
But his own party got smashed and the nationalists were the first party going into round 2.
As is usual for France in the last 40y, a united front was presented against Lepen: right and green voting for communists (we still got these) and communists voting for macronists..to beat Lepen.
They succeeded and the far left(muslim anti Jew , stalinist + green) ended with even more representatives than Lepen yet with far fewer voters.. democracy ...
Macron then selected an old center right unknown politician as PM to kead a supposedly right policy which ended just usual Macron's tzles, with the task of leading the country switching alliance left/ nationalist. Not a coalition a swinging door..
During that time similarly to democrats vs Trump, a newly formed court with prosecutors named by the last 2 socialist presidents Macron and Hollande..hum? Yes, there is a purpose...
That special court indicted Lepen asking for immediate jail time, making a precedent and so preventing lepen being a presidential candidate.
Sentences requested are higher than most rapists and quite a few murderers/manslaughter recently commited, applying the sentencing before any recourse on such trial is a first but she needs to be eliminated at all mean....
As i understand it Lepen used some allocated public servants and funds for her party work, not electorate work.
No corruption or personal gain ever mentioned as far as i know
And now they are surprised that she is telling them to fuxk off , overthrow tgf PM via assembly vote and go to the polls again
Obviously no actual done but words and big lies from Macron's puppet on crime/ immigration, which is number one priority now for most native French
France is now ranking higher than Mexico in crime, and not just petty thief: gang war, drug, rapes and murders...
It is too late imho for Lepen to win, the natives are not numerous enough and the muslim community is now too powerfull bot in leverage and numbers ;
If you add the usual loosers: media, teachers, old left and gauche caviar/artists, no Argentinian or Salvatorian model for France.
Be very careful if you still want to travel there, even outside the big cities.
That part is new, the countryside is not safe anymore
Do not invest locally there.
Cry and send money to family a la Haitian style...visit Italy instead
 
qldfrog said:
Just Macron debacle, he dissolved his majoriy parliament to stop the nationalist party rising ( far right is what is labelled any party that believes a country should put its citizen first before the globalists).
But his own party got smashed and the nationalists were the first party going into round 2.
As is usual for France in the last 40y, a united front was presented against Lepen: right and green voting for communists (we still got these) and communists voting for macronists..to beat Lepen.
They succeeded and the far left(muslim anti Jew , stalinist + green) ended with even more representatives than Lepen yet with far fewer voters.. democracy ...
Macron then selected an old center right unknown politician as PM to kead a supposedly right policy which ended just usual Macron's tzles, with the task of leading the country switching alliance left/ nationalist. Not a coalition a swinging door..
During that time similarly to democrats vs Trump, a newly formed court with prosecutors named by the last 2 socialist presidents Macron and Hollande..hum? Yes, there is a purpose...
That special court indicted Lepen asking for immediate jail time, making a precedent and so preventing lepen being a presidential candidate.
Sentences requested are higher than most rapists and quite a few murderers/manslaughter recently commited, applying the sentencing before any recourse on such trial is a first but she needs to be eliminated at all mean....
As i understand it Lepen used some allocated public servants and funds for her party work, not electorate work.
No corruption or personal gain ever mentioned as far as i know
And now they are surprised that she is telling them to fuxk off , overthrow tgf PM via assembly vote and go to the polls again
Obviously no actual done but words and big lies from Macron's puppet on crime/ immigration, which is number one priority now for most native French
France is now ranking higher than Mexico in crime, and not just petty thief: gang war, drug, rapes and murders...
It is too late imho for Lepen to win, the natives are not numerous enough and the muslim community is now too powerfull bot in leverage and numbers ;
If you add the usual loosers: media, teachers, old left and gauche caviar/artists, no Argentinian or Salvatorian model for France.
Be very careful if you still want to travel there, even outside the big cities.
That part is new, the countryside is not safe anymore
Do not invest locally there.
Cry and send money to family a la Haitian style...visit Italy instead
Click to expand...
Long winded but as i understand it
Yes i would vote Lepen if living there, no, i do not vote anymore as my ethics prevent me from voting if i do not assume the consequences of my vote
 

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