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France and Greece Elections - Omens of Doom?

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If it helps my case, MacroBusiness has been saying the same for truly well over a year.

What will happen next? Well I don't really see Greece staying in the EMU even if they default on 100% of their deficit. I doubt that even if their politicians had the resolve to change, that they could. I have never seen a more inefficient and unproductive country.

France? Hollande's plan is a decade too late, there just isn't enough aggregate demand in the world to allow France (or anyone) to grow.

We're all in the same boat here, all the countries of Earth. China can continue with it's fake GDP growth through building ghost cities for a little longer maybe, but ultimately they will face the grim reality as well.

There is no more real, genuine growth to be had. Deficits will continue to rise until a breaking point of default and/or (hopefully) debt forgiveness.
 
wayneL said:
Ok I've been moderately bullish looking into the future, particularly on the States, with a caution on watching what happens in Europe.

My spirits have just taken a dive into bear territory after the election results in France and Greece. I think that the breakup of the EU is now more likely now with global ramifications. I think there is now huge potential for the whole Eurozone to turn into a very malodourous and non-solid shyte.

Thoughts?
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Can only see a fair bit of Europe in flames as civil unrest explodes the pain in Spain 50% and rising youth unemployment and more austerity to come as GDP shrinks and debt ratios explode upwards. That's a revolution thats baked and ready to go. Remember Spain is to big to save and to big to fail.

With Italy and France inline for the same as their governments shy from seriously painful measures (conservative governments failed the test ), the incoming French president promises are fanciful, Germany stretched and furiously building firewalls to insulate again the Euro banks promises.................messy

1930's revisited perhaps
 
Greece was always on the edge of Europe anyway so no big deal if they go, the average Greek has no interest in being a part of a broader Euro society...thinking about it the French are a little the same, very self interested and somewhat culturally isolated.

France and Germany have always been the main Euro drivers...if one of them does a u-turn then i suppose its all over....i cant see it happening thou.
 
Tyler Durden said:
I still can't understand why people think Greece leaving the Euro would be a bad thing?
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In order for Greece to leave the Euro without Greek banks being essentially bled to death by savers trying to get their money out before conversion, it will have to be done Argentine style; you wake up one morning and the government has said that whatever you had in euros is now drachmas. Now, when that happens what do you think will happen in all those other periphery EZ economies? They'll need to build a new autostrada from Italy to Switzerland to deal with the flood of Italians trying to get their money out before it gets converted back to lira. Ditto Spain, Portugal etc. Those banks are already impaired, and bank runs on the news aren't good for governments.

Then you have to deal with the fact that leaving the EZ will create a private sector default on a scale which (perhaps outside of war) has never been seen in Europe. Pretty much every mortgage, credit card, business loan will fall into default.

I think, the reality is that they are all bound to each other now and will have to integrate further rather than disintegrate. Germany and France knew what they were getting themselves into. Greece produced fraudulent statistics, which were shown to be just that not long after they were admitted to the euro. They should have kicked them out then. They've made their bed, now they need to lie in it. And that means that Gunter will, sooner or later, see his tax dollars paying for Stavros.
 
What is worrying is the parties the voters went for which I assume will be a world wide trend. All the voters still want a free lunch and expect the feds to help them out so any party promising to give the voters what they want is in the running to be elected.

This is what happened pre WW11 in Germany.
USA is worried so has FEMA on the job building re-education camps, ordering million's bullets, bullet proof toll booths and micro chipping their higher up service personal.
USA Feds know what coming and want to be ready.
 
I was reading that in the small print in a fairly non transparent way of the Greek deal is the provision for all of Greeces gold to be confiscated if there is default - I wonder who would physically enforce this if it came to that and Greece refused ? Greek Gold holdings arnt really that huge anyway , but interesting that its in there ....

Anyway moving on ...

Nearly all European banks are debt riddled so im guessing the grand plan of the Oligarchy is to get all of Debt fuelled Europe signed up under the ECB.

Then perhaps the rest of the debt ridden world can sign up under the World bank and IMF .....

Looking around its pretty easy to see that most folks will choose debt and low interest rates over the alternative

Then the leader of each of these organisations will meet in a secret locale , and the slickest one will pull out a revolver and shoot the other two dead - at this point two horns will sprout from his head and he will shout " the greatest trick I ever played was convincing you all I dont exist "

Well the ending doesnt really matter - but world debt is looking more and more like a centralised control/conquering tool to me ...


:D

Whaddya reckon ?
 
The thick plottens most of the world bank are run by Government Sacks members whose aim is to take over the assets of as many countries as possible such as power, water ,rail, ports etc as well as natural assets like the Acropolis in Greece.

Don't think any cafe in St Kilda is on the books with the same name.

The only think that could stop them is civil unrest and the net were civilians can tell and show others around the world what is going on.
Gold will be the only thing of value once the tide goes out all this will take many years to achieve while the QE XX is in force.
 
Well, Germany gains from a low price conversion for the Euro and it may save them more to bail out the weak euro countries, though there has to be a point when it becomes unsustainable.

France's new President will gradually fall into line whilst blustering here and there. Greece will do the same and Germany can afford to adjust the terms with Greece dragging the Euro currency downwards -- thank you Greece.

Spain is a problem but Italy seem to be holding on fairly well. So a loan to Spain should be OK as well after much punching the air by all sides.

So Germany gets a weaker and weaker Euro and France will be persuaded into agreeing to the wisdom in that.

Australia will eventually accept the situation for what it is and improve in leaps and bounds and realise trying to to leap and bound whilst wagging its tail at the same time, kinda leaves you going all over the place.
 
Europe is becoming a very interesting place :)


My real enemy doesn't have a name or a face or a party, he'll never run as president, and so he'll never be elected, although he does govern - my enemy is the world of finance.

Incoming French president Francois Hollande
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I think the rise of the far right and the far left suggests that we are not that far away from that moment which is reminiscent of the 1930s.

International finance expert Satyajit Das
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http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-05-08/extremists-on-the-rise-in-europe/3997198
 
numbercruncher said:
Europe is becoming a very interesting place :)
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It's been interesting for some time.
It's just that we get board of focusing on things that are interesting after a while.
So the world seems to focus on something els that takes its interest, only to find the uninteresting interesting thing is in fact more interesting again.
Time for my pills.
 
For the Greek people, the most alarming aspect of what's going on is that their life savings are at serious risk of a massive, overnight, non-voluntary devaluation. There are a lot of words for the magical process of turning one thing into something else: alchemy, transmutation, and transubstantiation come to mind. But to the Greeks it's going to look a lot like highway robbery.

You'll go to bed one night with your life savings denominated in euros. You'll wake up the next day with them denominated in drachma. And your euro savings will be automatically converted to drachma at an exchange rate not of your choosing. For example, your 1,000 euros will become 100 drachma...or even 10,000 drachma. The nominal amount won't matter. What matters is that the devaluation strips you of 70% or 80% of your purchasing power.

Most people would avoid that kind of value destruction if they could. Maybe that explains why €700 million was withdrawn from Greek banks on Monday, according to remarks made by Greek President Karolos Papoulias and reported in the Wall Street Journal. The Journal reports that between €2 and €3 billion in deposits have been withdrawn from the Greek banking system each month for the past two years. January was a high point, with €5 billion.

A bank run by any other name would look as desperate. And who wouldn't be desperate now?

Leaving the euro, devaluing the drachma, and defaulting on debt owed to foreign creditors are Greece's best long-term economic survival strategy. But the unavoidable side-effect is to destroy the savings of the people, not to mention usher in a period of lower standards of living.
That won't win you many votes. It may start a revolution.

And how do you prevent the Greek precedent from being imitated by the Spanish and the Italians? To be candid, we don't think it matters much now. Greece can't afford to stay in the euro. The Spanish and the Italians can't afford to leave it.

The economies and banking systems of Spain and Italy are indispensable to Europe. If they leave the euro, there is no euro. The Greeks can leave, devalue, default and use a weaker currency to claw their way back to economic competitiveness. If the Spanish and Italians leave, they lose access to private capital, they lose access to the ECB and they take down Europe's banking system. They can't leave. More importantly, they can't be allowed to leave.

This makes the task of the European Central Bank (ECB) much easier. It simply has to guarantee Greek debt owed to all non-Greek creditors. Or, it could simply buy that debt. This would solve the problem of anyone outside Greece taking losses on Greek debt.

This is what corporatism looks like, when the Big State and Big Finance become the Big Power in the economy. Losses cannot be tolerated. Any loss results in lower equity capital at a financial firm would require selling assets. Since everyone owns a piece of everyone else, and owes to everyone else, any major loss in one place results in losses everywhere.

Of course it's absurd that Europe is moving toward this kind of "extreme socialism". The people most responsible for the crisis are not accountable and the people who have saved get punished. The elite are enriched and everyone else is enslaved.

This is why the financial crisis could so quickly become a political and social crisis. When people don't think they can get justice from the courts or the cops, and when they think that cheating is the only way to get ahead in a system, the political and financial order is on borrowed time. The clock is ticking.

Regards,
Dan Denning
The Daily Reckoning Australia

This is the shape of things to come for the rest of the indebted countries including USA any day now we should get news that Greece has gone under.
 
notting said:
It's been interesting for some time.
It's just that we get board of focusing on things that are interesting after a while.
So the world seems to focus on something els that takes its interest, only to find the uninteresting interesting thing is in fact more interesting again.
Time for my pills.
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Sorry off topic I know but that is one funny post whatever it means haha ;)

Interesting though, the first supplimentary comment on the Greeks repairing the Pantheon some 30 years ago. I remember back then all the scafolding around it, using Government money to repair this great asset, and yet today it looks identical to how it looked back then.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2...ifficult-steps
 

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young-gun said:
I am enjoying your use of emoticons CanOz, please keep it up.
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LOL! I'm not as good as TH and SKC. SKC cracked me up with the popcorn:pcorn:, watching the market tank last week...ROTFLMAO:roflmao:!

CanOz
 
Greek rulers have not had an original thought for nigh on 2500 years.

The Greeks will do as they are told by their popular media and by europe, when they vote in June.

They will stay in europe should they have any sense.

Otherwise they will be dispersed, clutching their mouldy drachmas for a winter of discontent.

gg
 

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