France and Greece Elections - Omens of Doom?

[wayneL]

Ok I've been moderately bullish looking into the future, particularly on the States, with a caution on watching what happens in Europe.

My spirits have just taken a dive into bear territory after the election results in France and Greece. I think that the breakup of the EU is now more likely now with global ramifications. I think there is now huge potential for the whole Eurozone to turn into a very malodourous and non-solid shyte.

Thoughts?

 

[CanOz]

Re: France and Greece Elections-Omens of Doom?

There is some discussion on the Bloomy now of a two tiered currency for the EuroZone. The theory is that there will be a breakup but it will be orderly.

I reckon there will be some short term volatility no matter what happens!

CanOz

 

[Tyler Durden]

I still can't understand why people think Greece leaving the Euro would be a bad thing?

 

[CanOz]

I still can't understand why people think Greece leaving the Euro would be a bad thing?

I think its probably the fact that if that happened there would be a debt default associated with it. Who knows who is holding that debt, and who holds their debt. Then the sovereign debt of PI_S comes into further question...and so on and so on...

Contagion.

CanOz

 

[Tyler Durden]

I think its probably the fact that if that happened there would be a debt default associated with it. Who knows who is holding that debt, and who holds their debt. Then the sovereign debt of PI_S comes into further question...and so on and so on...

Contagion.

CanOz

But in a way, that's just clearing inefficiences in the world economy isn't it? That's how I see it anyway, I am not an expert :

 

[CanOz]

But in a way, that's just clearing inefficiences in the world economy isn't it? That's how I see it anyway, I am not an expert :

Your not wrong Tyler, i know Jimmy Rogers would agree, he'd say let them default. I think the fear is for the short term chaos.

One way or the other it all needs to be unwound, whether or not it happens quickly or they just 'kick the can down the road' some more, only time will tell.

CanOz

 

[wayneL]

But in a way, that's just clearing inefficiences in the world economy isn't it? That's how I see it anyway, I am not an expert :

Yes

But the inefficiencies surfaced 12 years ago and came to a head in 2007-2008 having been propped up. Then they created massively more inefficiency subsequent to that.

Now we are at a point of potential cascading cross default, if a single domino goes over, the whole lot could go.

 

[notting]

Now we are at a point of potential cascading cross default, if a single domino goes over, the whole lot could go.

Is anyone really dumb enough to let that happen when the basic problem is a currency differentiation with with manufacturing Nations. Printings much easier and appropriate. Hidden wealth, China's got a problem!

The seasonal thing isn't helping.

I'd just be a little bit wary of these lying scumbag politicians who will say anything to get into power then kind of water it down amidst international condemnation for even looking like they may do something independently of the Euro motherland which feeds them!!
They will start to say things like, "Well we are trying to put our promises/policies into action but the motherland conspirers are threatening to throw us out of the Euro which would be catastrophic, so we are doing our best but our hands are tied. Those evil apponents got us into this mess in the first place, never vote for them again! Whilst tsexting, "Oh Angela, I've never felt like this about a women before........................"

 

[Trembling Hand]

Those evil apponents got us into this mess in the first place, never vote for them again! Whilst tsexting, "Oh Angela, I've never felt like this about a women before........................"

LOL!!!

Dax down 1 % The way this honey trap has been moving it wouldn't surprise me for Europe to finish green. Nothing here to see move on.

 

[Starcraftmazter]

My spirits have just taken a dive into bear territory after the election results in France and Greece. I think that the breakup of the EU is now more likely now with global ramifications. I think there is now huge potential for the whole Eurozone to turn into a very malodourous and non-solid shyte.

Just now? What did you think was going to happen - people would continue electing the politicians that were screwing them up the ****? Come on man, I saw this coming a year away.

The sooner EMU goes away the sooner we can live without their constant bull****.

I think its probably the fact that if that happened there would be a debt default associated with it. Who knows who is holding that debt, and who holds their debt. Then the sovereign debt of PI_S comes into further question...and so on and so on...

That's already happened buddy - that was what the Greek default was for. Most of the debt has been absorbed by the EU governments, and they will absorb the rest. The key was to split it up into little pieces for the market to digest.

Dax down 1 % The way this honey trap has been moving it wouldn't surprise me for Europe to finish green. Nothing here to see move on.

1%? Was down 2.8% or something like that just a few hours ago at open. This has been a highly profitable night for me.

 

[Trembling Hand]

1%? Was down 2.8% or something like that just a few hours ago at open.

Errr yeah that's my point. Its been going up since the open thus the comment I wouldn't be surprised if it gets into the green.

 

[sammy84]

But in a way, that's just clearing inefficiences in the world economy isn't it? That's how I see it anyway, I am not an expert :

Agree that in the longer run it could possibly be a good thing. Greece should have been able to recover naturally by way of currency devaluation. This whole eurozone thing is unnatural when you have countries trading between each other and holding each others debt.

Still would not want Greece to exit. I fear the sharp reaction it will cause. Much prefer the drawn out process we have been going through presently knowing full well it is stunting a longer term recovery.

 

[Starcraftmazter]

Errr yeah that's my point. Its been going up since the open thus the comment I wouldn't be surprised if it gets into the green.

That would be funny indeed, I wonder what the news will say about that - "Markets initially don't like socialist governments, but they warm to them within the first day"

 

[CanOz]

The DAX has nearly filled the gap. I'll be interested to see if it can overcome the open. The markets were still reacting from Friday's US finish as well, closing on their low..

By the way, when did Greece default? I must have slept through that?

CanOz

 

[Starcraftmazter]

By the way, when did Greece default? I must have slept through that?

Must have been living under a rock! In fact their credit rating has just been upgraded from default in the last week or two if I am not mistaken.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/46683364/Greece_Default_Is_Official_Insurance_Payouts_Triggered

 

[Trembling Hand]

The DAX has nearly filled the gap. I'll be interested to see if it can overcome the open. The markets were still reacting from Friday's US finish as well, closing on their low..

Standard gap play.....

By the way, when did Greece default? I must have slept through that?

Officially they did.

 

[CanOz]

Officially they did.

Yes, i guess it was an 'orderly' default by Moodies standards.

They are still heavily in debt and yet still no sniff of growth.

CanOz

 

[wayneL]

Just now? What did you think was going to happen - people would continue electing the politicians that were screwing them up the ****? Come on man, I saw this coming a year away..

Long has been the abiding trade in that year has it not?

The problem with Greece is not a change in government, but no clear result.

The problem with France is not a change in government, but the possible delinquency (from the EU point of view) of the new government.

Hence my comments.

I suppose you foretold these factors also?

 

[Starcraftmazter]

I suppose you foretold these factors also?

More or less - social instability caused by the austerity and depression leading to governmental instability, leading to EMU collapse.

So broadly speaking, yes. Simply put things cannot continue (the way they are), and what is happening now is the "normal course of events" that was always going to happen.

And of course it isn't just France of Greece - the same is happening in the Netherlands. And I reckon it will spread to more Euro countries as well.

 

[wayneL]

It has been a common theme. But I think you're being wise in hindsight there SCM. I agree social unrest was always on the cards, but the exact course of events is like mercury on a marble slab.